The Gipper Posted February 2, 2015 Report Share Posted February 2, 2015 When I googled the thread title, these are the first images that come up: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tour2ma Posted February 2, 2015 Report Share Posted February 2, 2015 I guess you could categorize it two ways, draft position versus performance is one, I was thinking about hype versus outcome. If the latter, then how does anyone surpass Tony Manderich? And as an overall #2, he's a strong contender for the former as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Gipper Posted February 2, 2015 Report Share Posted February 2, 2015 I guess you could categorize it two ways, draft position versus performance is one, I was thinking about hype versus outcome. Yea, well, we may have our own analysis to do when it comes to hype vs. performance. I guess we shall see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mudfly Posted February 2, 2015 Report Share Posted February 2, 2015 But Tebow won some games....even a playoff game. Some of these guys.....like Garrett, never even started a single game. To me, the difference with Tebow and Johnny, compared to a Leaf or Russell is the consensus that Leaf & Russell would be good, while there was MUCH conjecture about guys like Tebow and Johnny..... 1/2 the pundits thought they would fail......and they did.... so....I guess they are busts in the sense that a first round pick was used, but truly think they were reaches to begin with and it's really not a huge surprise(to a lot of folks) that they haven;t done well..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tour2ma Posted February 2, 2015 Report Share Posted February 2, 2015 When I googled the thread title, these are the first images that come up: Poor girl has to lean on a tree to stay upright... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tour2ma Posted February 2, 2015 Report Share Posted February 2, 2015 Agree, Mud... consensus (or lack thereof) sets the stage. But he started 63 games and played for 6 seasons. Tebow was Mr. America and held the country in the palm of his hand and he was gone in 16 starts, little Johnny should beat all of that by a mile. Tony Mandarich was widely believed to be the greatest line prospect of all-time... not only a slam dunk rookie, but a slam-dunk first ballot HOFer at career's end. After being drafted #2 overall he started zero games his rookie season. He started the next two years at RT for very poor Packers teams and was released at the end of his rookie deal. He was out of football for 5 years before joining the Colts as a journeyman. He started 6 games for a decent '96 team, and 26 for the piss poor '97 and '98 teams. In the end he was a mountain of hype followed by a pedestrian career highlighted by leaving two teams as young HOF QBs began their careers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mudfly Posted February 2, 2015 Report Share Posted February 2, 2015 Mandarich.....yep, one of the biggest ever......in everyway...ha! I dont remember ANYONE thinking Tebow would be a good pro....infact, my memory is that it was a foregone conclusion he wouldnt be good and people were shocked when Denver plucked him in the first.......most of the Tebow "hype" I remember started "after" he was drafted and started the whole praying thing, that became "Tebowing"......etc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mudfly Posted February 2, 2015 Report Share Posted February 2, 2015 Agree, Mud... consensus (or lack thereof) sets the stage. Expectation is everything. I would say this.....in all my years(decades now) following the draft, it is a rare day that the first couple of picks are surprises......meaning there usually seems to be a consensus on who the "best" one or 2 are...... oddly, this year they had Clowney, who to me looked like another puffed up Russell or Mandarich..... anyway.....even with the #1 and 2 overall picks, it's still a crap shoot.......you'd think the 2 BEST picks would be pro=bowlers at least......so, assuming 4 Pro Bowls is a very good/excellent career, I established that as the standard for a quality #1 or #2 overall......anything less would be "disappointing"..... So I went back and reviewed the #1 and #2 overall picks for the last 50 years(100 players picked)......and here's what I got... 48% ..........never made the pro bowl 10%...........made it 1 time 9%...........made it 2 times Which means that 67% of the very top picks had average or below careers......and Id say that the 48 are "busts" at some level, simply by where they were taken and the consensus expectation that they were exceptional On the other hand, 33 of them made 4 or more pro bowls ........and 13 of them are HOF(so far).....which is a pretty high percentage actually... 7 of the last 50 #1 = HOF 6 of the last 50 #2 = HOF So, if 48 out of a 100 of the TOP 2 picks fail....thats every other pick, btw.....what are the realistic expectations for players taken at 23 - 132 -- or 200??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Gipper Posted February 3, 2015 Report Share Posted February 3, 2015 There is a potential definitive formula that can perhaps decide who the biggest bust in history may be: As you may know I often refer to the Pro Football Referenced "Career Average" statistic. It is designed to calculate a players production during his professional career. Players who have long, highly productive careers have very high numbers. Peyton Manning, Brett Favre, Jerry Rice, Ray Lewis.....etc. guys that played a lot got high numbers. Those guys are all over like 200 in career average. Then, of course, the guys that do little or nothing in their careers get like -0- or 1, 2,3 etc. My formula is to do this: Lets just go back to like 1960 because the career average stat has only been universally calculated since then. We will take a QBs draft position....1-2-3-4 etc. and we will add it to his Career average number, and we will get the biggest draft busts in history by who has the lowest number. And here are the results in order of biggest QB draft bust ever since 1960: 1 tied Ryan Leaf #2 overall CA= 1 Total: 3 1 tied Randy Duncan #1 overall CA = 2 Total: 3 3 tied Akili Smith #3 overall CA= 1 Total: 4 3 tied Don Allard #4 overall CA= 0 Total: 4 5 Sandy Stephens #5 overall CA= 0 Total: 5 6. Richie Lucas #4 overall CA= 2 Total: 6 7. tie George Izo #2 overall CA= 5 Total: 7 7. tie Terry Baker #1 overall CA= 6 Total: 7 7. tie Jamarcus Russell #1 overall CA= 6 Total: 7 10. tie Rick Norton #2 overall CA= 6 Total: 8 10. tie Rich Campbell #6 overall CA= 2 Total: 8 10. tie Art Schlichter #4 overall CA=4 Total: 8 10. tie Kelly Stouffer #6 overall CA= 2 Tota:l 8 14. Heath Shuler #3 overall CA= 6 Total: 9 15. Andre Ware #7 overall CA= 5 Total: 12 16. Lee Grosscup #10 overall CA= 4 Total: 14 17. tie Dan McGwire #16 overall CA= 2 Total: 18 17. tie Blaine Gabbert #10 overall CA= 8 Total: 18 (note, still active so could recover) 19. tie Jerry Tagge #11 overall CA= 8 Total: 19 19. tie Cade McNown #12 overall CA= 7 Total: 19 21. Steve Pisarkewiscz #19 overall CA= 2 Total: 21 22. Brady Quinn #22 overall CA= 2 Total: 24 23. tie Jim Druckenmiller #26 overall CA= 1 Total: 27 23. tie Todd Marinovich #24 overall CA= 3 Total: 27 Honorable Mentions include: Greg Cook John Reaves David Klingler Chuck Long Todd Blackledge Matt Leinert Jack Thompson So...to me, based on a pure statistical formula....Ryan Leaf is indeed the biggest bust of all time. And here is a model upon which I would like to design a trophy for him: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FairHooker11 Posted February 3, 2015 Report Share Posted February 3, 2015 and name it the Lee Grosscup (#16) trophy... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Gipper Posted February 3, 2015 Report Share Posted February 3, 2015 and name it the Lee Grosscup (#16) trophy... Yep. You need a grossly large cup to fit that bust. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Manzier Posted February 3, 2015 Report Share Posted February 3, 2015 my bust pick(s) - Ty Detmer , Steve Walsh they actually played awhile too Ty Detmer? Was he even drafted? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tour2ma Posted February 3, 2015 Report Share Posted February 3, 2015 Reasonable effort, Gip... Ty Detmer? Was he even drafted? Yup... Green Bay, but there were more than 7 rounds back then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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