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Pat Kirwan's Mock Draft


Geech

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After looking at that draft I think some of his picks are really off the wall.

 

The Jags picking Sanchez? That organization doesn't even blame Gerrard for his off year. They know the problem was that he was running for his life all season.

 

He also has the Ravens picking Heywood-Bey. They have Mark Clayton and Mason sure shows no signs of slowing down. Hardly an immediate need for the Ravens. A corner or a MLB to replace Scott makes more sense.

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After looking at that draft I think some of his picks are really off the wall.

 

The Jags picking Sanchez? That organization doesn't even blame Gerrard for his off year. They know the problem was that he was running for his life all season.

 

Good points. Jax lost 3 starting olinemen for a good portion of their season so you might even see them going oline.

- Tom F.

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He longer has the Browns taking Jenkins (who falls to GB at #9), but chooses Orakpo, a move I agree with.

 

http://www.nfl.com/draft/story?id=09000d5d...mp;confirm=true

 

-Al

 

Understanding we need an outside pass rush and remembering the Jamir Miller factor leading us to a conference #1 in INTs back in 2001 - I can see us going OLB/DE early. I'm not sure I like the guys slated for upper round 1 better than the guys that will be on our doorstep in upper round 2 though. The year we chose Wimbley, Manny Lawson got the same 11 sacks for SF later in the round while Mark Anderson got somewhere between 11 and 13 sacks for the Bears as a 4th or 5th round selection playing part time. Anderson had the build to fit either D. The ONE thing that scares me about the pass rusher first is inspite of promising rookie starts for all 3 kids I just mentioned - they all fell off the map as early as season 2.

 

Kruger, Matthews, English and Sintim (who led the nation in sacks as an OLB) are intriguing round 2 prospects. Matthews and Sintim both come from defenses coached by former NFL DCs using 3-4s. That's an advantage while some will just be learning the 3-4 and a new position.

- Tom F.

 

 

 

 

 

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Kruger, Matthews, English and Sintim (who led the nation in sacks as an OLB) are intriguing round 2 prospects. Matthews and Sintim both come from defenses coached by former NFL DCs using 3-4s. That's an advantage while some will just be learning the 3-4 and a new position.

- Tom F.

 

Good post Flug

 

Here's another one...Connor Barwin. He's the guy I want in round 2.

 

barwin-1.jpg

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Good post Flug

 

Here's another one...Connor Barwin. He's the guy I want in round 2.

 

barwin-1.jpg

 

Thanks Mark! VERY good idea about Barwin. He's got a TON of upside when you consider he only recently changed from being a TE to a DE in 2008. The kid is a GREAT athlete. His 1st 2 years at Cincy he played power forward on the hoops team as a walk-on. Aside from becoming a real good defensive player last year - he also blocked 3 punts in 2008.

 

The draft guide I have (Lindy's Pro Football Draft) likens him to Mike Vrabel. They list him at 6'4" and 255 pounds.

- Tom F.

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Thanks Mark! VERY good idea about Barwin. He's got a TON of upside when you consider he only recently changed from being a TE to a DE in 2008. The kid is a GREAT athlete. His 1st 2 years at Cincy he played power forward on the hoops team as a walk-on. Aside from becoming a real good defensive player last year - he also blocked 3 punts in 2008.

 

The draft guide I have (Lindy's Pro Football Draft) likens him to Mike Vrabel. They list him at 6'4" and 255 pounds.

- Tom F.

 

I didn't know about the blocked punts.

 

His numbers at the combines were just unbelievable. He is a great athlete.

 

Boy, the more I hear about him the more I like this guy. He'll be fun to watch in the next few years, regardless of where he ends up

 

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Understanding we need an outside pass rush and remembering the Jamir Miller factor leading us to a conference #1 in INTs back in 2001 - I can see us going OLB/DE early. I'm not sure I like the guys slated for upper round 1 better than the guys that will be on our doorstep in upper round 2 though. The year we chose Wimbley, Manny Lawson got the same 11 sacks for SF later in the round while Mark Anderson got somewhere between 11 and 13 sacks for the Bears as a 4th or 5th round selection playing part time. Anderson had the build to fit either D. The ONE thing that scares me about the pass rusher first is inspite of promising rookie starts for all 3 kids I just mentioned - they all fell off the map as early as season 2.

 

Kruger, Matthews, English and Sintim (who led the nation in sacks as an OLB) are intriguing round 2 prospects. Matthews and Sintim both come from defenses coached by former NFL DCs using 3-4s. That's an advantage while some will just be learning the 3-4 and a new position.

- Tom F.

while you're right about anderson, who had 12 sacks his rookie season, lawson has 5.5 sacks for his career and only had 2.5 as a rookie. he just never transitioned to the league after having a great combine, much like vernon gholston can't harness his physical ability and translate it into on-the-field success.

 

the dropoff for wimbley and anderson is a disturbing trend, but there are guys like merriman and demarcus ware who've produced for multiple years after having great rookie seasons. anderson's dropoff is partly a result of teams having tape on him, like wimbley, but it's also a product of his being asked to be more than a situational pass rusher, like wimbley. when guys have to play the run, they've got less in the tank to rush the passer, and that combined with teams being more aware of them will cause their production to drop. ware and merriman also have the advantage of playing one-gap schemes which tend to be more aggressive than two-gappers.

 

as far as matthews goes, he's a first-round prospect at this point, and is one of the draft's fastest risers this year. his work ethic, measurables, production and pedigree will all combine to his being selected in the bottom third of the first round with the pats being a likely suitor.

 

larry english's potential could lead to his being a first-round selection, though his combine wasn't fantastic, which, combined with his having faced only marginal talent during his collegiate career, could push him into the early second. he really needed a good combine to keep him as a sure-fire first-rounder, but his showing wasn't strong enough to solidify his draft position.

 

sintim has been steadily falling since the regular season ended. his measurables haven't looked great and his senior bowl practices were average, so he's definitely a second-round guy right now. however, like flugs said, he already has experience playing OLB in the 3-4, so he'll likely have an easier transition to the NFL and be ready to play earlier, which is a plus for a team that's looking for immediate impact.

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while you're right about anderson, who had 12 sacks his rookie season, lawson has 5.5 sacks for his career and only had 2.5 as a rookie. he just never transitioned to the league after having a great combine, much like vernon gholston can't harness his physical ability and translate it into on-the-field success.

 

the dropoff for wimbley and anderson is a disturbing trend, but there are guys like merriman and demarcus ware who've produced for multiple years after having great rookie seasons.

 

Very good points JD!

 

My bad about Lawson. I saw the year 2005 next to 10.5 sacks (had a senior moment because that was his final college season I confused for his 1st pro season).

 

Don't forget, we also drafted Courtney Brown #1 overall because he was 270 pounds running 4.58s with about 5% body fat. He was everything scouts dream about finding at the combines with the All American highlights to support it all. Guess what? He didn't have an ounce of sic em for the pro game. We didn't get our dream pass rusher until Jamir Miller replaced him in 2001 with a Pro Bowl season. Even Jamir was temporary because he blew out an achilles tendon in the very first preseason game of the following year.

 

We've gone round 1 twice since 2000 for a pass rusher off the edge and get boned both times. And we're STILL looking. That's why I'm reluctant, fair or unfair, to jump on the bandwagon of Orakpo, Maybin or Brown as early as #5 overall if there's better players at other positions available. LOVED your idea of a tradedown JD.

 

Check this out - Pittsburgh has found a TON of talented OLBs/DEs after round 1 such as:

Chad Brown Rd 2 Colorado

Greg Lloyd Rd 6 Fort Valley State

Jason Gildon Rd 3 Oklahoma State

Joey Porter Rd 3 Colorado State

James Harrison Undrafted FA - Kent State

LaMarr Woodley Rd 2 Michigan

Mike Vrabel Rd 3 Ohio State

 

Understanding this, they drafted Huey Richardson as the 15th overall pick in round 1 out of Florida in 1991. They got burned going pass rusher in round 1 too so they decided to stick with the formula they felt worked better. There's definitely going to be some GOOD pass rushers available after round 1 or in the latter part of round 1 if we get a tradedown. I just feel like I have to get creative to talk myself into any of the pass rushing LBers they are projecting between #5 and #15 at this time.

- Tom F.

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Don't forget, we also drafted Courtney Brown #1 overall because he was 270 pounds running 4.58s with about 5% body fat. He was everything scouts dream about finding at the combines with the All American highlights to support it all. Guess what? He didn't have an ounce of sic em for the pro game. We didn't get our dream pass rusher until Jamir Miller replaced him in 2001 with a Pro Bowl season. Even Jamir was temporary because he blew out an achilles tendon in the very first preseason game of the following year.

 

We've gone round 1 twice since 2000 for a pass rusher off the edge and get boned both times. And we're STILL looking. That's why I'm reluctant, fair or unfair, to jump on the bandwagon of Orakpo, Maybin or Brown as early as #5 overall if there's better players at other positions available. LOVED your idea of a tradedown JD.

 

Check this out - Pittsburgh has found a TON of talented OLBs/DEs after round 1 such as:

Chad Brown Rd 2 Colorado

Greg Lloyd Rd 6 Fort Valley State

Jason Gildon Rd 3 Oklahoma State

Joey Porter Rd 3 Colorado State

James Harrison Undrafted FA - Kent State

LaMarr Woodley Rd 2 Michigan

Mike Vrabel Rd 3 Ohio State

 

Understanding this, they drafted Huey Richardson as the 15th overall pick in round 1 out of Florida in 1991. They got burned going pass rusher in round 1 too so they decided to stick with the formula they felt worked better. There's definitely going to be some GOOD pass rushers available after round 1 or in the latter part of round 1 if we get a tradedown. I just feel like I have to get creative to talk myself into any of the pass rushing LBers they are projecting between #5 and #15 at this time.

- Tom F.

i defended courtney brown in another thread, and i'll defend him again, here. he had a decent rookie season, then was coming on in his second season with 4.5 sacks in 5 games when he got injured, and that began a steady decline in his performance as injuries sapped his explosiveness and kept him from being able to regularly get to the QB. injuries derailed his career, and that's not something that anyone can call his fault. if anything, his six sacks in thirteen games in 2003, after consecutive years of coming back from season-ending surgeries on first his left then his right knee, are a testament to his drive and toughness.

 

as far as trading down goes, it'd be great if it were possible, but at this point, i don't see who's going to want to trade up to five for a damaged crabtree who's also short, and the only other trade option, raji, will possibly go to seattle and negate any chance we have of getting him. only if raji falls to five and we can convince green bay or denver that cinci is going to take him will we be able to trade down. it's a far too limited scenario to count on regardless of how much we want it to happen.

 

i've done a little analysis of first-round pass rushers, and 15 of the 36 first-round draft choices from 1999 to 2007 who teams have intended to be pass rushers (not including browns draft choices) have been successful, which means that 41.67% of first-round pass rushers have success. yes, we've been wrong twice, but plenty of other teams have missed on first-round pass rushers, too. there's a litany of failed pass rushers out there, but it doesn't mean that you should stop trying to get one, because it's worth it when you hit.

 

i've got no problem with orakpo at five. who do you think is a better option? you say there will be better players available at other positions, but, aside from crabtree and raji, who do you think is in this draft that's better than whoever you think is the top pass rusher?

 

last, it's completely unfair to compare pittsburgh's pass rush drafting success with any other team. their scheme easily drives their success, and not the other way around, especially when you consider that their LBs historically struggle once they go to other teams. joey porter's year this year is by and large the exception aside from kevin greene. vrabel's an interesting case because he did nothing in pittsburgh and only flourished once he was in new england, quite the opposite of the rule.

 

the pass rushers who are gonna go between five and fifteen aren't sure-fire players like julius peppers, and that's why they'll fall to the middle of the round. however, they're likely the best option we have. the QBs in this draft are jokes; we don't need a LT and five is way too high for andre smith, who's an ideal RT if he gets his shit together; maclin's got speed but his transition to a traditional offense is questionable; the RBs are jokes, and, last, malcolm jenkins is slow for a corner but weak for a safety and vontae davis is just as inconsistent as his brother, vernon. orakpo's our best option at five. he's fast, strong, explosive and already takes pride in playing the run, plus he's got a proven track record against quality competition. he's my choice at five if we can't get curry or get out of the spot.

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Pittsblurg also has, historically, a kick butt defensive line. That lets their lb's

do what they do, and let's Pollymoomoo do what he does.

 

Which, covers up for a relatively weaker secondary.

 

When Ray Lewis has less a dline up front of him, he wasn't as effective, at all.

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i defended courtney brown in another thread, and i'll defend him again, here. he had a decent rookie season, then was coming on in his second season with 4.5 sacks in 5 games when he got injured, and that began a steady decline in his performance as injuries sapped his explosiveness and kept him from being able to regularly get to the QB. injuries

 

While I hear what you're saying JD - the 1 year he got 3 sacks in 1 game on the backup Tackle for Pittsburgh trying protect Kent Graham's blindside. I never saw him do this against starters very much at all. I'd be lying if I didn't say Wimbley looked alot more promising in the rookie journey.

 

All this said, we're getting sidetracked on things other than the bottom line. I need to repeat my main points because it's relevant to us and our biggest rival whom we haven't beaten in about 5 years:

We've gone round 1 twice since 2000 for a pass rusher off the edge and get boned both times. And we're STILL looking. That's why I'm reluctant, fair or unfair, to jump on the bandwagon of Orakpo, Maybin or Brown as early as #5 overall if there's better players at other positions available. LOVED your idea of a tradedown JD.

 

Check this out - Pittsburgh has found a TON of talented OLBs/DEs after round 1 such as:

Chad Brown Rd 2 Colorado

Greg Lloyd Rd 6 Fort Valley State

Jason Gildon Rd 3 Oklahoma State

Joey Porter Rd 3 Colorado State

James Harrison Undrafted FA - Kent State

LaMarr Woodley Rd 2 Michigan

Mike Vrabel Rd 3 Ohio State

 

Understanding this, they drafted Huey Richardson as the 15th overall pick in round 1 out of Florida in 1991.

 

I don't like the guys slated for the upper part of round 1 as much as I like the guys that will be available toward the bottom half/third of round 1 and upper part of round 2. I have no idea how they decide Maybin is better than Matthews. What's the criteria? Whatever it is - I'm too stubborn to believe it.

- Tom F.

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Guest Aloysius

Because they already have capable starting OLB's, the Steelers can afford to draft hybrid types a little later in the draft. But it's also worth pointing out that most of the names you listed are from at least 7-8 years ago, when there weren't a lot of 3-4 teams searching for hybrid types. With the increase in demand, it's now much harder to find one of these guys later in the draft.

 

You can cite LaMarr Woodley, an early/mid second rounder, as a counterexample, but part of the reason he fell that low was that scouts didn't think he could drop into coverage. If new coach Mike Tomlin hadn't been considering switching to a Tampa 2 defense, I have a sneaking suspicion they wouldn't have taken him.

 

And in that same draft, the Steelers drafted Lawrence Timmons in the first to play WOLB. Though he didn't stick at that spot, it shows that the Steelers do think talented edge rushers are worth taking in the first round.

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Guest Aloysius

According to Mike Mayock, Aaron Maybin may not even be a 1st Round pick after a disappointing Combine. Unfortunately, Maybin couldn't add bulk without losing agility and speed - his 7.50 3-cone was particularly disappointing.

 

He probably needs to get back down to 235 lbs. to be an effective speed rusher, which means he wouldn't be a good fit for us.

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Because they already have capable starting OLB's, the Steelers can afford to draft hybrid types a little later in the draft. But it's also worth pointing out that most of the names you listed are from at least 7-8 years ago, when there weren't a lot of 3-4 teams searching for hybrid types. With the increase in demand, it's now much harder to find one of these guys later in the draft.

 

You can cite LaMarr Woodley, an early/mid second rounder, as a counterexample, but part of the reason he fell that low was that scouts didn't think he could drop into coverage. If new coach Mike Tomlin hadn't been considering switching to a Tampa 2 defense, I have a sneaking suspicion they wouldn't have taken him.

 

And in that same draft, the Steelers drafted Lawrence Timmons in the first to play WOLB. Though he didn't stick at that spot, it shows that the Steelers do think talented edge rushers are worth taking in the first round.

 

Valid points Aloy but we're getting creative with scenarios and what ifs. Bottom line: Pitt's scouting department, GM and Def Coordinator were all in-tact there before the transition of Head Coaches and Tampa 2 thoughts. Consequently, they knew exactly what was needed for their scheme so ANYONE could co-exist with Dick LeBeau, healthy cap and ideal scouting. Tomlin walked into the same goodies Gruden walked into at Tampa. ALOT of teams try the Tampa 2 and even the 3-4 but we only remember the ones with the best players. Same with the WCO invented a couple decades before SF used the best players and coaching for it.

 

Woodley was drafted just 2 years ago. Harrison starts now so it's tough to get more curent than the current starters. They've always done this. The one kid they recently drafted in round 1 (Timmons) has had considerably less reps than Woodley and Harrison regardless of why/where he fits exactly. Harrison wasn't even drafted in 7 rounds of 32 teams selecting so all I can go by is what I've seen repeated and repeated and repeated by them. If they're replacing good guys with good guys doing that - what's that tell you about how it works? Huey Richardson was their 15th pick overall and that turned out alot worse than these guys:

Chad Brown Rd 2 Colorado

Greg Lloyd Rd 6 Fort Valley State

Jason Gildon Rd 3 Oklahoma State

Joey Porter Rd 3 Colorado State

James Harrison Undrafted FA - Kent State

LaMarr Woodley Rd 2 Michigan

Mike Vrabel Rd 3 Ohio State

 

We've drafted the designated pass rusher twice in the upper half of round 1 (and once at #1 overall) and guess what's never changed heading into the next season? We need a more reliable designated pass rusher. I'd LOVE for that to be different but Jamir Miller's 2001 season was the ONLY time we've received a Pro Bowl pass rush off the edge and it's not like he came with intensified pass rusher training beyond the x-stunts. Wimbley, showed tremendous promise as a rookie with 11 sacks BUT somewhere along the lines we found no upside. More on that in a minute.

 

This year, ALOT of the kids that were originally projecting as round 2 are rising into the bottom half of round 1. That means I have to rise with them a little. Therefore, I'd welcome the tradedown and feel much more comfortable going OLB/Pass Rusher in the bottom half of round 1 especially knowing Curry is long gone at #5 and we'll have another pick or 2 moving back. I was as BIG of a fan of OUR Clay Matthews as it gets so I'm LOVING seeing the 3rd generation of Clay Matthews heading to the NFL. If we can't trade down, we gotta go best available player with whomever George and Eric deem that be at #5 and then get our edge guy near the top of rd 2. There's going to be some REALLY good edge guys NEAR where we pick in round 2 (ie; Justin Tuck was rd 3 and Osi Youmeanbasterd was rd 2) while Kiwanunka was drafted #32 overall). Every year, just like the RB position, there's some awesome edge guys drafted in rounds 2 and 3.

 

If we toss Wimbley from our plans for the SAME exact kid possibly even from the same exact school at #5 overall - how have we helped ourselves? We'd be paying 2 upper first round salaries for the SAME position so if we go pass rusher again, this is just my opinion inviting bullets, I'd prefer to give us a better bang for the buck for a kid that is going to get better with experience. For all I know, Hall might even become our Harrison or/Woodley. Let's not forget how long we've been saying these kids need alot better coaching out there. I'm still struggling at the thought of Wimbley waking up a piss poor football player following an 11 sack rookie outing. Nothing about that says "bad future" or "bad player" IMO. In fact, EVERY player that's recently had a GOOD season for us followed up with a crappy season whether we're talking Droughns, Lewis, Edwards, Wimbley, DA, Winslow, etc... ALOT of that is bad coaching and maybe even crappy contract incentives.

 

Here's something REALLY positive to end with: ONE of our new Strength and Conditioning Coaches is a former DE (pass rusher) Rick Lyle that stuck around in this league long after playing for us in the early 90s. I think he's going to be a difference maker in the growth and development process for some of these young edge kids.

- Tom F.

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