gftChris Posted November 2, 2016 Report Share Posted November 2, 2016 I'm pretty sure the FO doesn't value the #1 pick as much as you or the rest of the league. Analytics will tell you that the #1 pick (as well as the top 5 in general) is grossly over-valued. You just have to look at the success rate of these picks vs. the rest of the first round. The difference isn't that great. Therefore, from an analytics stand point, the best thing to do with the #1 pick (unless there is a surefire franchise QB) is to trade it because teams will overpay for it. I can pretty much guarantee that if they got an offer that involves swapping firsts, a first in 2018, and a second round pick or two (plus sundries) they'll take it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tour2ma Posted November 2, 2016 Author Report Share Posted November 2, 2016 Signing Collins fits with the FO's strategic vision, which is to be in contention consistently from 2018 onward. To do that, the team must have as many of it's young players entering their prime at the same time. This is the importance of the huge 2016 draft class and the importance of giving them as many reps as we are now. Adding Collins fits this vision because by 2018 he should still be in his prime. I'm pretty sure the FO doesn't value the #1 pick as much as you or the rest of the league. Analytics will tell you that the #1 pick (as well as the top 5 in general) is grossly over-valued. You just have to look at the success rate of these picks vs. the rest of the first round. The difference isn't that great. Therefore, from an analytics stand point, the best thing to do with the #1 pick (unless there is a surefire franchise QB) is to trade it because teams will overpay for it. Mostly agree with this very well done write-up. My one quibble would be the the number of players entering their prime at the same time. The salary cap demands that you have a rolling set of talented youngsters on cap-friendly, rookie deals throughout the process. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hoorta Posted November 2, 2016 Report Share Posted November 2, 2016 I'm pretty sure the FO doesn't value the #1 pick as much as you or the rest of the league. Analytics will tell you that the #1 pick (as well as the top 5 in general) is grossly over-valued. You just have to look at the success rate of these picks vs. the rest of the first round. The difference isn't that great. Therefore, from an analytics stand point, the best thing to do with the #1 pick (unless there is a surefire franchise QB) is to trade it because teams will overpay for it. We'll see a few years down the road if passing on Wentz was a good idea or not. It only works if the analytics guys hit on the extra picks they have. Julio Jones anyone? About as sure-fire as you can get. And we got jack with the extra picks. That netted us Phil Taylor and Brandon Weeden. Sashi and DePo will have to do 10X better than that. PS- Take a look at that 2011 draft- (where we passed on Jones) it was about as top heavy with Pro Bowl talent as any. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
miktoxic Posted November 2, 2016 Report Share Posted November 2, 2016 Signing Collins fits with the FO's strategic vision, which is to be in contention consistently from 2018 onward. did i miss something? we have an insider that sits in with our FO and knows their vision? uh........ who knows what the collins signing means but to say that you know it's part of a plan is like saying you have to breath air to survive. yeah they signed a dude that is as close to a vet this team knows besides JT and haden. will it be awesome if the dude wants to take on a leadership role to our suck ass middle line defense? will it be great if he loves cleveland and wants to be part of the 'FOUNDATION'? yep. but so far the FO is cheap and far between when it comes to doing anything close to landing top talent that may cost. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hoorta Posted November 2, 2016 Report Share Posted November 2, 2016 did i miss something? we have an insider that sits in with our FO and knows their vision? uh........ who knows what the collins signing means but to say that you know it's part of a plan is like saying you have to breath air to survive. yeah they signed a dude that is as close to a vet this team knows besides JT and haden. will it be awesome if the dude wants to take on a leadership role to our suck ass middle line defense? will it be great if he loves cleveland and wants to be part of the 'FOUNDATION'? yep. but so far the FO is cheap and far between when it comes to doing anything close to landing top talent that may cost. Yeah nice enough we have him. May cost? LOL Mik. NE dumped him partly because he WILL cost- like on the high side of $10 million to get him to stick around. You want Von Miller money? Then play like it. Um, we've all seen examples of guys who play like their hair's on fire in a contract year- and then promptly slack off after they get paid. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TexasAg1969 Posted November 2, 2016 Report Share Posted November 2, 2016 C'mon... we're amateurs and we could see what the sum of the parts were... even before injuries further diminished our "shell". As for our recent "addition"... I think your choice of "seemingly" is appropriate for now. But even if he is everything we'd hope and then some, does this D look to be one player away from competitive? Nope, but they might be a couple of decent plays and a bounce of the football luck away from winning a couple of games. That one player is good enough to add those couple of plays. Besides, it would fit the Browns kind of luck, accidentally win your way out of the best player out there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tour2ma Posted November 2, 2016 Author Report Share Posted November 2, 2016 Nope, but they might be a couple of decent plays and a bounce of the football luck away from winning a couple of games. That one player is good enough to add those couple of plays. Besides, it would fit the Browns kind of luck, accidentally win your way out of the best player out there. lol... I give up. Your negativity is much stronger than mine... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stillmotion Posted November 2, 2016 Report Share Posted November 2, 2016 Yeah nice enough we have him. May cost? LOL Mik. NE dumped him partly because he WILL cost- like on the high side of $10 million to get him to stick around. You want Von Miller money? Then play like it. Um, we've all seen examples of guys who play like their hair's on fire in a contract year- and then promptly slack off after they get paid. 10mil? try 12-13mil Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Osiris Posted November 2, 2016 Report Share Posted November 2, 2016 Mostly agree with this very well done write-up. My one quibble would be the the number of players entering their prime at the same time. The salary cap demands that you have a rolling set of talented youngsters on cap-friendly, rookie deals throughout the process. Yeah I definitely agree with that. That's why it is important that they can consistently draft good players. It would be more correct for me to say "as man players entering their prime at the same time as the salary cap can handle." This is part of the benefit of going for a quantity over quality approach in the draft. More replacements means you can get cheaper replacements for guys demanding team-unfriendly second contracts. That also gives you leverage in negotiations. did i miss something? we have an insider that sits in with our FO and knows their vision?I have listened to 90% of Browns press conferences and interviews, as well as CBD just about every day where they talk about the team's strategy often. I have twelve years of work experience in an analytics field (bioinformatics, a field DePodesta worked in as well). Every move the Browns have made since Sashi Brown became GM makes sense when you look at it through the vision I have deduced. That's what gives me the confidence to say that this is their strategic vision. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
miktoxic Posted November 2, 2016 Report Share Posted November 2, 2016 Every move the Browns have made since Sashi Brown became GM makes sense when you look at it through the vision I have deduced. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
D Bone Posted November 3, 2016 Report Share Posted November 3, 2016 LMAO!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Osiris Posted November 3, 2016 Report Share Posted November 3, 2016 That must be you with the beer helmet. I know big words like "deduce" and complex ideas like "rebuild" and "vision make you go to your happy place for comfort but do try to keep up. It's not all that complicated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
miktoxic Posted November 3, 2016 Report Share Posted November 3, 2016 busting balls bro. people need to learn to lighten the F up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Osiris Posted November 3, 2016 Report Share Posted November 3, 2016 busting balls bro. people need to learn to lighten the F up. Take your own advice? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tour2ma Posted November 3, 2016 Author Report Share Posted November 3, 2016 It would be more correct for me to say "as man players entering their prime at the same time as the salary cap can handle." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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