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Great ESPN Article


sdballis

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http://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/18327393/are-2016-cleveland-browns-worst-nfl-team-ever-there-hope-future

Some points to note:

 

- We are not even close to being the "worst team of all time" (based on our offensive and defensive stats as well as our SOS)

 

- We are going to have a STUPID amount of cap room to bring in some good free agents to accelerate our growth

 

- We have a STUPID amount of draft capital for this upcoming draft. Now, we all know this obviously, but it being put into perspective makes it that much more astounding.

 

"The average team has 44.8 points of draft capital to invest in the 2017 draft. The 49ers, who have the second-most capital, have 65.5 points, with no other team above 57 points. Cleveland, even after trading a third-round pick for Collins, has 102.3 points of draft capital to invest in April's draft. That's a staggering amount. To put that in context, the difference between the Browns and the 49ers is 36.8 points; the value of the first overall pick itself is 34.6 points. The difference between the Browns and an average team is just about the value of the second and third overall picks put together."

 

A interesting note to point out that may allow our "savvy" FO (Take that how you will; I'm a believer so far, but obviously others are not) to take advantage of some other teams.

"There's also the possibility of using cap space to essentially buy draft picks. Let's use Osweiler as an example. The Texans clearly regret signing Osweiler, who was benched this week for Savage. It's possible Osweiler could improve, but the Texans would go back and erase his signing from the record if they could. Houston would surely love to dump Osweiler and use the money it would save to go after a superior quarterback such as Romo or Cutler this offseason, but the Texans are locked in: Osweiler's owed a $16 million guaranteed base salary in 2017, and if the Texans cut him, they would have a painful $25 million in dead money hit their cap next season. Not gonna happen.

 

What the Texans could do, though, is trade Osweiler to a team who would be willing to pay his $16 million base salary. Houston would be left with a far more palatable $9 million in dead money on their 2017 cap. The problem, of course, is that nobody would want to pay Osweiler $16 million for the 2017 season unless there were dramatic incentives and no better options around. The Browns could fit both those shoes. They've repeatedly shown how significantly they value draft picks, are willing to be patient to receive those picks and have no clear path to a starting quarterback. Osweiler has been a mess in Houston, but he looked competent in Denver during the 2015 season behind a middling offensive line. Hypothetically, the Browns could offer a seventh-round pick to the Texans in exchange for Osweiler, a 2017 third-round pick and a 2018 first-rounder."

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I'm not sure you read the whole article if you figured that we are "not even close" to being the worst team of all time.

Consider our weighted TDVOA is 39.6% the implication being we have gotten worse the later in the season we get considering that we are trending that way you can extrapolate our growth at around 1-2% worse per game so i figure we'll end at around -42% tdvoa

with that in mind lets look at the figure 11th percentile all time TDVOA estimating 30 teams yearly since 1970-2016.

Thats 1380 teams throughout those years making our ranking of all time no higher than 1228 out of 1380. At the end of the season with all of the data if we fall like i predict we will be closer to 1275-1300

offense is 1338 out of 1380.

Further that article has some incorrect information stating that we had better statistics than the 08 lions. our expected wins were 2.6 and the lions were 2.8 wins but the article states that we had a superior expected win value. Not only that but the Point differential between the 2008 lions and the 2016 Clevelands Browns was a staggering difference -98 points for the lions and -188 points for the browns. only 26 teams in the 46 years since the merger have been scored on more per game.... out of over 1300 teams only 26 was scored on more per game...

This is literally a designed hope piece. It's spinning the stats in a positive light for no other reason to build hype.

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Interesting article... Skimmed it, as I don't need the pep talk about not being the worst, until I reached the Brockweiler trade bit. Never heard of such a deal, and can't see it happening, but it is conceivable and interesting as hell.

 

Then there was this at the close:

 

I went through the various trades and compensatory selections and generated an estimated 2017 draft order, given every team's records with two weeks to go in 2016. Then, I used Chase Stuart's draft value chart to generate expected returns for each pick. The difference between what the Browns have to work with and the rest of the NFL, frankly, is staggering. The average team has 44.8 points of draft capital to invest in the 2017 draft. The 49ers, who have the second-most capital, have 65.5 points, with no other team above 57 points.

Cleveland, even after trading a third-round pick for Collins, has 102.3 points of draft capital to invest in April's draft. That's a staggering amount. To put that in context, the difference between the Browns and the 49ers is 36.8 points; the value of the first overall pick itself is 34.6 points. The difference between the Browns and an average team is just about the value of the second and third overall picks put together.

 

Setting aside that yet another chart chart was not exactly what we needed, the number of chips we have accumulated in this game is impressive... all while adding talent to the team.

 

I like this kind of stupid...

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When you look at it THAT way, the amount of "chips" we have is mind-boggling. It's the reason why so many people are calling it the single biggest draft since our reincarnation. I think more fans would be excited about the draft if we had a better track record of drafting. I keep hearing from my friends, "It doesn't matter, we'll blow it anyways." And I get it, I totally do. We drafted 4 WR's last year, and not one of them has stepped up to resemble a play maker. Not one of them has done anything extraordinary. No punt returns for TD's, kick returns, deep bombs, short pass that went the distance...nothing. Corey had one good game and broke his hand in practice. Awesome. Now, rookie WR's don't usually blow up out of the gates, but it's certainly happened. Biggest issue is that the WR position is so dependent on everyone else, that it's almost not fair to criticize them. Corey has had a step or two deep on multiple occasions, only to find the ball didn't get thrown, or it was an awful pass. But...shouldn't a first round pick be able to make the occasional "outstanding" play? Let me give you an example. Last week before the half, we threw a Hail Mary. Somehow, Corey had single coverage super deep down the field, and RG III chucked it a country mile. It didn't make it to the end zone, but it went a long way. Anyways, the defender had excellent coverage, but Corey wasn't able to make a play on the ball. I'm NOT saying he should've caught it, but he couldn't even get near the ball, and he had forever to jostle for position. That's what I'm talking about. THAT'S the kind of play I want to see made every once in a while from a highly drafted player. The ability to do the unbelievable when your team needs it the most.

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Yea we're setup for a really good draft, but people have zero confidence in the team to make the picks.

 

When you had 14 draft picks...and the production from those picks is generally pretty low - with very little impact.....causing your team to fall to 0-16.....well, it's difficult to see where they merit the confidence. The best emotion they can expect from us is 'hope'.

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I really hate to rip this scab off, but how different would it feel if we had Carson Wentz, and the possibility of having our QB of the future? Make no mistake about it, Wentz didn't "light it up" this year, but he's shown enough to make the case that he could learn from this year and be a valued asset. If we thought we had our QB, had the #1 pick, AND all this cap room? Man...I think many of us would feel better. Sure, having all these "chips" is great, but we still need a damn QB. We need a reason for hope, and right now...we don't have it. Not all of the chips in the world can make a Browns fan hopeful.

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I really hate to rip this scab off, but how different would it feel if we had Carson Wentz, and the possibility of having our QB of the future? Make no mistake about it, Wentz didn't "light it up" this year, but he's shown enough to make the case that he could learn from this year and be a valued asset. If we thought we had our QB, had the #1 pick, AND all this cap room? Man...I think many of us would feel better. Sure, having all these "chips" is great, but we still need a damn QB. We need a reason for hope, and right now...we don't have it. Not all of the chips in the world can make a Browns fan hopeful.

 

If we had Wentz, we probably wouldn't be drafting #1 overall. Not to mention those extra picks in the first and second rounds. It's all going to depend on how we use that bonus going forward. As the article said, it won't matter if we have all the picks in the world, and blow them on bums. The first four picks had better result in at least two studs. We drafted 4 WRS, and got virtually nothing out of the m this year.

 

PS, though I'm not going to re-read the entire article, there was a big error IIRC. The Browns have played the toughest schedule in the league thus far. When teams are tied with identical records, draft order is determined by the team playing the weaker schedule drafts first. Makes sense. Ergo, hope the the 49ers win a game, because come draft time we don't want to be tied with them.

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So we could have a chance at being the best 0 win team ever?

Quite possibly even from different decades, always a tough call in any sport including boxing, golf, tennis. (geezz we're hard up for stuff to think about)

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Who cares about big O, we can sit him behind the other 5 QBs on the roster...

 

It's that 1st and 3rd round pick that we'd be getting in exchange for a seventh round selection.

 

We just let Scooby walk for free. Imagine getting a first and third round pick for him, that's what this is about. It doesn't mean we don't draft another QB first overall or somewhere else. Nobody says we have to use him.

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Who cares about big O, we can sit him behind the other 5 QBs on the roster...

 

It's that 1st and 3rd round pick that we'd be getting in exchange for a seventh round selection.

 

We just let Scooby walk for free. Imagine getting a first and third round pick for him, that's what this is about. It doesn't mean we don't draft another QB first overall or somewhere else. Nobody says we have to use him.

 

All hypothetical Po. Pick up expensive garbage in exchange for other picks? Houston won't be that stupid. There's no way in hell they're going to give up a first round pick to make Osweiler go away.

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All hypothetical Po. Pick up expensive garbage in exchange for other picks? Houston won't be that stupid. There's no way in hell they're going to give up a first round pick to make Osweiler go away.

Unless... they want to be able to afford to pay their first rounder this year ;)

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Tons of picks in the upcoming draft with our draft history........ what could go wrong?

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Unless... they want to be able to afford to pay their first rounder this year ;)

 

Not so PG. Here's a level headed take from overthecap.com This year's pick is sunk money, and they have the cap space to sign their picks in 2017.

 

"Osweiler’s $16 million salary is fully guaranteed for next season, which would leave the Texans with a $25 million cap hit if they cut him. The NFL does not allow the June 1 cut to aid in the acceleration of guaranteed money so even a June 1 cut would result in a cap charge of $19 million in 2017 with $6 million being pushed to 2018. That would be the identical scenario to him remaining on the team in 2017 and then being cut in 2018. Considering the Texans will rank in the bottom 3rd of the NFL in cap space in 2018 taking an added $6 million cap charge may not be the best decision.

About the only realistic way for the Texans to get rid of Osweiler would be to prepay a large portion of his salary as a signing bonus in March and then trade him away. Basically what the Texans would have to do is work out a trade with another team in which the team determines the price point at which it becomes an acceptable contract. My guess would be that a team would be willing to pay him between $3 and $4 million which would be the going rate for a decent backup QB. Could they convince a team with a bad QB situation like the Jets to take on a $5-6 million salary? Its possible but not likely.

To make that work what would happen is that Osweiler would agree to a new contract with the Texans that would pay him around $13 million as a signing bonus while reducing his salary for the year to $3 million. Once the contract is accepted by the NFL the Texans would then turn around and trade him. The Texans would take on a cap charge of $22 million in that scenario but save themelves $3 million over a two year period. It also gets him off the roster. The Texans would likely have to include a draft pick in any such trade and/or potentially bring back a bad contract. Like I said, first round pick? Dream on!!!

This is a situation that the Texans should have seen coming. Its very difficult to take limited upside players, hand them a big contract, and see things go well. Even more established players like Jay Cutler, Alex Smith, and Andy Dalton have come under heavy criticism in large part because of the big expectations such contracts bring and the fact that none have the skills needed to carry a team the way the contract implies. So this was pretty much a disaster waiting to happen.

It’s one of the problems with the QB position right now around the NFL. It takes a backbone to not go crazy on these contracts and few, if any teams, have shown that backbone. In the current NFL only the Redskins have shown any resolve on the position opting to franchise Kirk Cousins rather than handing him a massive contract off a smaller sampling. Ironically he is the one QB that has worked out and is in line to receive a huge contract this offseason. Other teams like the Jets, Bills, and Vikings simply went off the rails like the Texans when it came to QB decisions.

For Houston it would be surprising if this somehow didnt cost someone a job or at least some power within the organization. The problems began in 2012 when they decided to give Matt Schaub an extension that put the weight of the world on his shoulders and he imploded, which cost the coach his job and moved the team into the Bill O’Brien era.

O’Brien’s track record with the QBs has been terrible. They went with journeyman Ryan Fitpatrick in 2014 for the first 9 games before benching him in favor of Ryan Mallett. Mallett was generally ineffective and was injured which led to the return of Fitzpatrick who also ended up injured which paved the way for Case Keenum. The following year they went with another reset and decided they would trade Fitzpatrick and Keenum and sign Brian Hoyer to compete with Mallett. It was a bizarre year with them seemingly picking a new QB weekly before putting Hoyer in which led to a situation where Mallett basically quit on the team and was released. Injuries saw TJ Yates and Brandon Weeden also get starts before Hoyer had one of the worst playoff games of all time. It was another reset this year which culminated with the contract for Osweiler and eventual replacement by Savage. Somewhere in all of this they could have drafted Derek Carr but decided they could get by without a draft pick.

I dont think its likely that Osweiler is traded next year. He is damaged goods and anyone that trades for him, even at a reduced price, will likely have to deal with a good deal of criticism. I’d imagine that the end result will be an open competition that will involve Osweiler, Savage and either a 1st or 2nd round draft pick or some random veterans like RG3 or Matt Barkley. If its not a first rounder involved that's probably not a very exciting option for the Texans but they are probably boxed in with Brock and his massive salary until 2018.

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