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Business Insider: Trump's new trade deal is just NAFTA 'with some bells and whistles,' analysts say

While President Donald Trump hails a revised NAFTA as the "most advanced trade deal in the world," some analysts are wondering what all the hype is about.

Officials reached a breakthrough on the US-Mexico-Canada Agreement in 11th-hour negotiations Sunday night, calming fears that the trilateral deal could be scrapped when a self-imposed deadline hit hours later. But analysts say the new deal doesn't look very different from the trade dynamics that have governed the US and its neighbors for decades.

"New deal, with a new name, but aside from dairy access and some bells and whistles, hardly a major rewrite that warranted so much wasted time over a 13-month long period of negotiations," David Rosenberg, chief economist at Toronto-based Gluskin Sheff, said in a note sent out to clients. 

To be sure, USMCA resolves previous sticking points and includes major concessions from both sides. For example, it opens up about 3.5% of Canada's protected dairy market to US farmers and allows Canadians to purchase five times the amount of foreign products online without paying an additional import tax.

But Eric Winograd, a senior economist at AllianceBernstein, thinks the changes are "entirely trivial" from a US perspective. "If those sound like small numbers it’s because they are," he said. "There is no reason to change US economic forecasts as a result of the deal. No doubt the Administration will herald the accord as a game-changer, but in economic terms it certainly is not."

Building on a previous agreement between the US and Mexico, USMCA also revamps production standards for automakers across the three countries. Under the new agreement, three-quarters of a car's parts must originate from North America in order to be exempt from duties. It offers Mexico and Canada partial protection from broader auto tariffs the Trump administration has threatened to impose, but falls short of marking those countries exempt. 

"To me it seems like it's a stonewashed and ripped NAFTA, if you will, rather than a modernized agreement," Hugo Perezcano Díaz, a director at the Center for International Governance Innovation and a former trade official for the Mexican government, said. 

Still, USCMA represents a major victory for Trump, who has vowed to rewrite global trade relationships since the campaign trail. It won early approval from businesses and lawmakers across the aisle and even put the Republican administration in a rare alliance with labor unions. 

The new agreement also signals the Trump administration is open to maintaining trade deals with some countries, analysts say, although most fell short of including China in that list. 

"In a sense, we look at this as something that does have a constructive message both for North American trade and for fears around trade wars more broadly," Bruce Kasman, a JP Morgan economist, said. "What we wouldn't do is extrapolate this to the US-China relationship." 

Negotiations between Washington and Beijing remain deadlocked after the Trump administration followed through with another round of import taxes on Chinese goods last month, leading to retaliatory tariffs and the cancellation of high-level trade talks. 

"The US relationship with China is much more complicated than its relationship with Canada," Rosenberg agreed. "And of course the stakes are considerably higher when dealing with China — the Chinese have leverage over the US that Canada simply doesn’t have."

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author of article:

Gina "dweeb" Heeb

https://www.linkedin.com/in/ginaheeb

Causes Gina cares about:

  • Civil Rights and Social Action
  • Economic Empowerment
  • Human Rights
  • Disaster and Humanitarian Relief
  • Politics
  • Poverty Alleviation

https://twitter.com/ginaheeb?lang=en

Gina Heeb @ginaheeb Sep 27

Silence on Wall Street. Tears in a retirement home. The country watches, transfixed, as Ford tells her story.

@ginaheeb sifted through hundreds of pages of public comment from small business owners and the possible devastation from @realDonaldTrump’s trade war

Gina Heeb @ginaheeb Aug 24

Texas is seeking at least $12 billion, nearly all of it from public funds, to help shield the petroleum industry from the consequences of global warming

Gina Heeb @ginaheeb Jun 28

“They threaten my life. The longer this campaign goes on, the more I expect them to take their online rage into the real world.” A couple excerpts I came across tonight in Unbelievable, @KatyTurNBC’s book about covering the Trump campaign:
 

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Yeah, that is jblu's heroine - a liberal journalist who is a big liberal.

whatever sells, I take that as the idea. and the left gets a lot of free soros etc money.

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I did watch the story on MSNBC when it was announced just to see the spin they would have on it. Even those guys admitted grudgingly that was a good deal but not great they emphasized. Said at this point it can't be determined how much better than the old deal and they still wanted to see how it benefited the workers.

So if they are forced to say it's okay it must be pretty damn good.

WSS

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12 hours ago, calfoxwc said:

author of article:

Gina "dweeb" Heeb

https://www.linkedin.com/in/ginaheeb

Causes Gina cares about:

  • Civil Rights and Social Action
  • Economic Empowerment
  • Human Rights
  • Disaster and Humanitarian Relief
  • Politics
  • Poverty Alleviation

https://twitter.com/ginaheeb?lang=en

Gina Heeb @ginaheeb Sep 27

Silence on Wall Street. Tears in a retirement home. The country watches, transfixed, as Ford tells her story.

@ginaheeb sifted through hundreds of pages of public comment from small business owners and the possible devastation from @realDonaldTrump’s trade war

Gina Heeb @ginaheeb Aug 24

Texas is seeking at least $12 billion, nearly all of it from public funds, to help shield the petroleum industry from the consequences of global warming

Gina Heeb @ginaheeb Jun 28

“They threaten my life. The longer this campaign goes on, the more I expect them to take their online rage into the real world.” A couple excerpts I came across tonight in Unbelievable, @KatyTurNBC’s book about covering the Trump campaign:
 

Yep, a fair and balanced author! [/sarcasm]

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14 hours ago, calfoxwc said:

author of article:

Gina "dweeb" Heeb

https://www.linkedin.com/in/ginaheeb

Causes Gina cares about:

  • Civil Rights and Social Action
  • Economic Empowerment
  • Human Rights
  • Disaster and Humanitarian Relief
  • Politics
  • Poverty Alleviation

https://twitter.com/ginaheeb?lang=en

Gina Heeb @ginaheeb Sep 27

Silence on Wall Street. Tears in a retirement home. The country watches, transfixed, as Ford tells her story.

@ginaheeb sifted through hundreds of pages of public comment from small business owners and the possible devastation from @realDonaldTrump’s trade war

Gina Heeb @ginaheeb Aug 24

Texas is seeking at least $12 billion, nearly all of it from public funds, to help shield the petroleum industry from the consequences of global warming

Gina Heeb @ginaheeb Jun 28

“They threaten my life. The longer this campaign goes on, the more I expect them to take their online rage into the real world.” A couple excerpts I came across tonight in Unbelievable, @KatyTurNBC’s book about covering the Trump campaign:
 

 

2 hours ago, Canton Dawg said:

Yep, a fair and balanced author! [/sarcasm]

And yet both of you just gloss over what's actually in the article and instead attack the author 

Face the facts, this deal is pretty much NAFTA with a few new bells and whistles. Nearly nothing changes for the US in this deal. Some "victory" for Trump.

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and yet...

you gloss over the facts, and happily believe completely warrantless accusations against Kavanaugh, and just attack

the nominee based on his lack of leftwing credentials.

A lot changes - you just hate that it doesn't give America some gigantic advantage.

that will never happen - but it's far more fair for us.

Your obaMao mafia could never get those "bells and whistles", they failed America completely.

but that's okay - they give out free obaMao mafia phones.

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1 hour ago, calfoxwc said:

and yet...

you gloss over the facts, and happily believe completely warrantless accusations against Kavanaugh, and just attack

the nominee based on his lack of leftwing credentials.

A lot changes - you just hate that it doesn't give America some gigantic advantage.

that will never happen - but it's far more fair for us.

Your obaMao mafia could never get those "bells and whistles", they failed America completely.

but that's okay - they give out free obaMao mafia phones.

So, you're response to my critique of this trade deal, in a thread about said trade deal, is...Brett Kavanaugh and "Obama mafia" phones? Lol, alllllllllllllllllrighty then. I'll just leave this here...

On 7/25/2018 at 9:28 AM, calfoxwc said:

no, I try to stay on a subject - but it doesn't take long for it to be warped, so it doesn't matter if I join in...

It's stupid to say my woodypeckerhead is a woodpecker responses change the subject - I do it BECAUSE he changed the subject....

 

Now that we have the usual pleasantries out of the way, lets see exactly whats in this new trade deal:

Bloomberg: Trump’s ‘Historic’ Trade Deal: How Different Is It From Nafta?

2.thumb.jpg.d96abf6c101efeedda12cc128661d67f.jpg

1.thumb.jpg.029e70a1811cbe7568a55c570df79b37.jpg

3.thumb.jpg.6a73a9a8325d2e97ddc3f5e1001a930f.jpg

 

Here is the sum total of changes from the previous NAFTA agreement. As I stated earlier, aside from a few bells and whistles, this new "deal" is pretty much identical to the same NAFTA agreement that Trump and Co. built a campaign around hating on. So, if this is the final trade deal, and not some stepping off point for a more comprehensive one, then what exactly has been accomplished here?

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3 hours ago, jbluhm86 said:

So, you're response to my critique of this trade deal, in a thread about said trade deal, is...Brett Kavanaugh and "Obama mafia" phones? Lol, alllllllllllllllllrighty then. I'll just leave this here...

 

Now that we have the usual pleasantries out of the way, lets see exactly whats in this new trade deal:

Bloomberg: Trump’s ‘Historic’ Trade Deal: How Different Is It From Nafta?

2.thumb.jpg.d96abf6c101efeedda12cc128661d67f.jpg

1.thumb.jpg.029e70a1811cbe7568a55c570df79b37.jpg

3.thumb.jpg.6a73a9a8325d2e97ddc3f5e1001a930f.jpg

 

Here is the sum total of changes from the previous NAFTA agreement. As I stated earlier, aside from a few bells and whistles, this new "deal" is pretty much identical to the same NAFTA agreement that Trump and Co. built a campaign around hating on. So, if this is the final trade deal, and not some stepping off point for a more comprehensive one, then what exactly has been accomplished here?

MAGA!

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13 hours ago, Westside Steve said:

I did watch the story on MSNBC when it was announced just to see the spin they would have on it. Even those guys admitted grudgingly that was a good deal but not great they emphasized. Said at this point it can't be determined how much better than the old deal and they still wanted to see how it benefited the workers.

So if they are forced to say it's okay it must be pretty damn good.

WSS

I heard that too. I don't have a problem with it. It's better than scuttling it altogether. I don't care if they are nearly identical.

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22 hours ago, jbluhm86 said:

Business Insider: Trump's new trade deal is just NAFTA 'with some bells and whistles,' analysts say

While President Donald Trump hails a revised NAFTA as the "most advanced trade deal in the world," some analysts are wondering what all the hype is about.

Officials reached a breakthrough on the US-Mexico-Canada Agreement in 11th-hour negotiations Sunday night, calming fears that the trilateral deal could be scrapped when a self-imposed deadline hit hours later. But analysts say the new deal doesn't look very different from the trade dynamics that have governed the US and its neighbors for decades.

"New deal, with a new name, but aside from dairy access and some bells and whistles, hardly a major rewrite that warranted so much wasted time over a 13-month long period of negotiations," David Rosenberg, chief economist at Toronto-based Gluskin Sheff, said in a note sent out to clients. 

To be sure, USMCA resolves previous sticking points and includes major concessions from both sides. For example, it opens up about 3.5% of Canada's protected dairy market to US farmers and allows Canadians to purchase five times the amount of foreign products online without paying an additional import tax.

But Eric Winograd, a senior economist at AllianceBernstein, thinks the changes are "entirely trivial" from a US perspective. "If those sound like small numbers it’s because they are," he said. "There is no reason to change US economic forecasts as a result of the deal. No doubt the Administration will herald the accord as a game-changer, but in economic terms it certainly is not."

Building on a previous agreement between the US and Mexico, USMCA also revamps production standards for automakers across the three countries. Under the new agreement, three-quarters of a car's parts must originate from North America in order to be exempt from duties. It offers Mexico and Canada partial protection from broader auto tariffs the Trump administration has threatened to impose, but falls short of marking those countries exempt. 

"To me it seems like it's a stonewashed and ripped NAFTA, if you will, rather than a modernized agreement," Hugo Perezcano Díaz, a director at the Center for International Governance Innovation and a former trade official for the Mexican government, said. 

Still, USCMA represents a major victory for Trump, who has vowed to rewrite global trade relationships since the campaign trail. It won early approval from businesses and lawmakers across the aisle and even put the Republican administration in a rare alliance with labor unions. 

The new agreement also signals the Trump administration is open to maintaining trade deals with some countries, analysts say, although most fell short of including China in that list. 

"In a sense, we look at this as something that does have a constructive message both for North American trade and for fears around trade wars more broadly," Bruce Kasman, a JP Morgan economist, said. "What we wouldn't do is extrapolate this to the US-China relationship." 

Negotiations between Washington and Beijing remain deadlocked after the Trump administration followed through with another round of import taxes on Chinese goods last month, leading to retaliatory tariffs and the cancellation of high-level trade talks. 

"The US relationship with China is much more complicated than its relationship with Canada," Rosenberg agreed. "And of course the stakes are considerably higher when dealing with China — the Chinese have leverage over the US that Canada simply doesn’t have."

OOOps, you forgot to read that paragraph.

Whatever you liberal fukcs will do to marginalize or completely dismiss Trumps accomplishments you'll do.

See the paragraph below...Trump cares about the Mexican worker.  Perhaps with better wages and the ability to unions, they'll stay in fukkin Mexico.

Big changes for cars. The goal of the new deal is to have more cars and truck parts made in North America. Starting in 2020, to qualify for zero tariffs, a car or truck must have 75 percent of its components manufactured in Canada, Mexico or the United States, a substantial boost from the current 62.5 percent requirement.

There’s also a new rule that a significant percentage of the work done on the car must be completed by workers earning at least $16 an hour, or about three times what the typical Mexican autoworker makes. Starting in 2020, cars and trucks should have at least 30 percent of the work on the vehicle done by workers earning $16 an hour. That gradually moves up to 40 percent for cars by 2023.

While many economists think these new rules will help some North American workers, they also warn that car prices might rise and some small cars may no longer be made in North America because they would be too expensive under the new requirements. There are also concerns that automakers might not make as many cars in North America to export to China and elsewhere overseas because costs would be higher in the USMCA region than making the vehicles in Asia. 

Trump’s victory: Canada opens up its milk market to U.S. farmers. Trump tweeted often about how unfair he thought it was that Canada charged such high tariffs on U.S. dairy products. Canada has a complex milk and dairy system. To ensure Canadian dairy farmers don’t go bankrupt, the Canadian government restricts how much dairy can be produced in the country and how much foreign dairy can enter to keep milk prices high. Trump didn’t like that, and dairy was a major sticking point in the negotiations.

 In the end, Canada is keeping most of its complex system in place, but it is giving greater market share to U.S. dairy farmers. U.S. negotiators say they got a major victory by forcing Canada to eliminate the pricing scheme for what are known as Class 7 dairy products. That means U.S. dairy farmers can probably send a lot more milk protein concentrate, skim milk powder and infant formula to Canada (and those products are relatively easy to transport and store).

Trump’s steel tariffs stay in place (for now). Canada wanted Trump to stop his 25 percent tariffs on Canadian steel. That didn’t happen — yet. The two countries are still discussing lifting those tariffs, but a senior White House official said Sunday that process is on a “completely separate track.” Trudeau has called the steel tariffs “insulting and unacceptable” because the two nations are such close allies.

 Improved labor and environmental rights. The USMCA makes a number of significant upgrades to environmental and labor regulations, especially regarding Mexico. For example, the USMCA stipulates that Mexican trucks that cross the border into the United States must meet higher safety regulations and that Mexican workers must have more ability to organize and form unions. Some of these provisions might be difficult to enforce, but the Trump administration says it is committed to ensuring these happen — a reason U.S. labor unions and some Democrats are cheering the new rules.

Increased intellectual property protections. The new IP chapter is 63 pages and contains more-stringent protections for patents and trademarks, including for biotech, financial services and even domain names. Many business leaders and legal experts believed these updates were necessary given that the original agreement was negotiated 25 years ago.

Big drug companies gain more footing in Canada. U.S. drug companies will now be able to sell pharmaceuticals in Canada for 10 years before facing generic competition. That’s up from eight years of so-called “market protection” now.

 Deal must be reviewed after 6 years. The USMCA stipulates that the three nations will review the agreement after six years. If all parties agree it’s still good, then the deal will continue for the full 16 year period (with the ability to renew after that for another 16 years). This was a compromise provision: Trump wanted ability to renegotiate the deal frequently. Ultimately, there will be a review, but it won’t happen until after Trump leaves office.

Chapter 11, giving investors a special way to fight government decisions, is (mostly) gone. Chapter 11 is eliminated entirely for Canada and mostly for Mexico, except for some key industries such as energy and telecommunications. Chapter 11 gave companies and investors a special process to resolve disputes with one of the governments in NAFTA. The idea was that if investors put a lot of money into a project and then the government changed the rules, there was a clear dispute process — outside the court system — where investors could get their problem resolved.

Critics argue that Chapter 11 was mainly used as a way for big corporations to get taxpayer money, but businesses say it was necessary to ensure they weren’t harmed by sudden changes when new governments came into power in Mexico, Canada or the United States. In the end, Chapter 11 is mostly gone, except for a few key industries, such as oil, that lobbied hard to be able to challenge the Mexican government if it changes the rules and tries to nationalize its energy sector again.

 

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