Deep Thoughts from Depodesta

[hoorta]

Mostly for Tour, but it's worth a read exactly what John is about....  

https://247sports.com/nfl/cleveland-browns/Article/Browns-Paul-DePodesta-Explains-Analytics-And-His-Role-With-The-Browns-142623717/?utm_source=247Sports Newsletter&utm_medium=Newsletter&utm_campaign=200127_121841_ClevelandBrowns&utm_content=Link

  continuous Process improvement from the article.....  "I think we have gotten better and better every year in terms of our preparation for our draft in how we synthesize all different pieces of information. "

And a little more from OBR....  

https://247sports.com/nfl/cleveland-browns/Article/The-Greetham-Angle-Can-The-Browns-Turn-Their-All-Ivy-League-Brain-Trust-Into-Wins-142818702/

[Orion]

Analytics is information gathering.  

[Tour2ma]

3 hours ago, hoorta said:

Mostly for Tour, but it's worth a read exactly what John is about....  

https://247sports.com/nfl/cleveland-browns/Article/Browns-Paul-DePodesta-Explains-Analytics-And-His-Role-With-The-Browns-142623717/?utm_source=247Sports Newsletter&utm_medium=Newsletter&utm_campaign=200127_121841_ClevelandBrowns&utm_content=Link

  continuous Process improvement from the article.....  "I think we have gotten better and better every year in terms of our preparation for our draft in how we synthesize all different pieces of information. "

Thanks... basically it's a transcript of the video posted a week or so ago after Stef's intro presser.

However, I did not remember this shot at Dorsey... “So I should not use the term ‘real football players’? " DePodesta said laughing about John Dorsey's comments when he became GM. Quality burn there...

[Tour2ma]

Good bit for those concerned about Depo's past or future role...

Quote

My charge is not to watch tape and say, ‘Oh man, this guy has got real good feet.’ We have got scouts that are way better and way more qualified to do that than I am to do that, but when we come down to make a selection, it is my role to say, ‘Okay, are we doing, are we making a decision that actually aligns with our way and that makes sense(?)”

The question at the end is purely one of facilitation... and that's a good thing.

 

What remains unknown is what is his role in answering that question.

[hoorta]

38 minutes ago, Tour2ma said:

Good bit for those concerned about Depo's past or future role...

The question at the end is purely one of facilitation... and that's a good thing.

What remains unknown is what is his role in answering that question.

The problem during the draft is you're going to have damn little time for consensus and discussion.  The ducks had better be lined up beforehand. Guy we like is here, done. Whoops, he went one pick before, plan B. What happens if another team wants to trade into your spot at the last minute?  

[Unsympathetic]

33 minutes ago, hoorta said:

The ducks had better be lined up beforehand

Who do you think facilitates the meetings to get the entire room on the same page before draft day? The entire draft should be game-planned by Depo including substitutions to the "normal" list if players get injured and fall -- last season's Simmons is a great example, Titans now have a DL difference-maker from the bottom half of rd1.  It's almost never "one" person at a spot, you have to have 3-6.

Facilitating a meeting is nowhere near "telling" a group what to believe -- it's ensuring that the conversation gets to a decision rather than meandering down a rabbit hole such as 30 minutes on last weekend's bar trivia victory dance.

 

 

Furthermore.. we've had ridiculously terrible drafts the last 3 years outside of Garrett/Greedy/Ward/Chubb/Baker with "Football Guys" running the picking.  How's that takitaki doing?  Any standard used to knock "analytics" makes "Football Guys" score much, much worse when defending the Browns draft picks after round 1.  And if that doesn't matter to you.... that's fine, enjoy your scotch, but you have no actual "reason" to dislike analytics.

[Orion]

30 minutes ago, hoorta said:

The problem during the draft is you're going to have damn little time for consensus and discussion.  The ducks had better be lined up beforehand. Guy we like is here, done. Whoops, he went one pick before, plan B. What happens if another team wants to trade into your spot at the last minute?  

Yup.  Ya gotta be prepared for all of that.  There's time....but the reality is the combine is right around the corner and we don't even have any coordinators yet.

[Orion]

2 minutes ago, Unsympathetic said:

The entire draft should be game-planned by Depo including substitutions to the "normal" list if players get injured and fall

Nah.  Depot will just say whether or not the specific player matches with their ideals.  Depo is not a football guy.  He knows nothing of a LT's feet and hands positions.

[Unsympathetic]

38 minutes ago, Orion said:

Nah.  Depot will just say whether or not the specific player matches with their ideals.  Depo is not a football guy.  He knows nothing of a LT's feet and hands positions.

Read the post. It is not just Depo.

Every single person - INCLUDING THE FOOTBALL GUYS - gets on the same page.

 

Also, that's simply not how ratings are done.  FOOTBALL GUYS DEFINE WHAT IS GOOD.  The football person says "In this play, this is what a good kick-step looks like" -- not depo.  If a player does it correctly, they get a +.. if not, either a 0 or -.  Depo does nothing until he gets an Excel file with ratings of current players -- using ratings defined by former football players.

How is this anything other than just one more level of detail beyond "Football Guy" coaches keeping pens and paper out to see which OL execute assignments 2 out of 10 as opposed to 10 out of 10 times?

[Orion]

10 minutes ago, Unsympathetic said:

Read the post.

I read the post....and then I read yours....thus my reply.

[hoorta]

23 minutes ago, Orion said:

Yup.  Ya gotta be prepared for all of that.  There's time....but the reality is the combine is right around the corner and we don't even have any coordinators yet.

That's true- but Wolf, Highsmith and the scouts are still on the job. They were all at the Senior Bowl. Now I have to admit not having the OC or DC in place is somewhat problematic- but you have to think they're going to have in mind what types of players they like in their schemes. Maybe the scouts and analytics folks will give them a cafeteria list of potential draftees. There's still time- several weeks to the Combine, and then it's Pro Days at the colleges, and private workouts. The draft is still 11 weeks away.  

[ballpeen]

8 hours ago, hoorta said:

The problem during the draft is you're going to have damn little time for consensus and discussion.  The ducks had better be lined up beforehand. Guy we like is here, done. Whoops, he went one pick before, plan B. What happens if another team wants to trade into your spot at the last minute?  

It isn't that quick.  Teams start talking trade before hand.  Once you get 2-3 picks out it picks up.  Same with players.  Once 2 picks out you have what 20-30 minutes in the first round or two.  At that point you focus on 3 players.  One of them will be there.  I don't think it is as much of a split decision as you make.

[ballpeen]

7 hours ago, hoorta said:

That's true- but Wolf, Highsmith and the scouts are still on the job. They were all at the Senior Bowl. Now I have to admit not having the OC or DC in place is somewhat problematic- but you have to think they're going to have in mind what types of players they like in their schemes. Maybe the scouts and analytics folks will give them a cafeteria list of potential draftees. There's still time- several weeks to the Combine, and then it's Pro Days at the colleges, and private workouts. The draft is still 11 weeks away.  

I agree.  We will have our DC by Tuesday.  We may not even have a OC.  There is plenty of time.  

 

It's not like we don't have boots on the ground.  Every scout in the building is out watching of filing their final reports.

[jbluhm86]

12 hours ago, hoorta said:

That's true- but Wolf, Highsmith and the scouts are still on the job. They were all at the Senior Bowl. Now I have to admit not having the OC or DC in place is somewhat problematic- but you have to think they're going to have in mind what types of players they like in their schemes. Maybe the scouts and analytics folks will give them a cafeteria list of potential draftees. There's still time- several weeks to the Combine, and then it's Pro Days at the colleges, and private workouts. The draft is still 11 weeks away.  

Not so fast, my friend:

Yahoo News: Browns fire Alonzo Highsmith, uncertainty about Eliot Wolf’s future

 

[hx214]

I like when he traded for Ricardo Rincon

[Tour2ma]

15 hours ago, hoorta said:

The problem during the draft is you're going to have damn little time for consensus and discussion.  The ducks had better be lined up beforehand. Guy we like is here, done. Whoops, he went one pick before, plan B. What happens if another team wants to trade into your spot at the last minute?  

As others have mentioned Draft planning is done in advance... it's called a "Big Board".

At least within the various Departments it's been under construction since the end of NCAA's Championship weekend. So now with Berry in place it's a matter of him bringing them together. There's plenty of time to do this.

The final Board will probably include 300 players... give or take. Contrary to popular belief they won't be ranked #1 thru #300. Neither scouting nor analytics are precise enough to do that. What will be done is to cluster the players in groups of perceived similar value. Number of groupings varies, but somewhere in the mid- to upper-teens works. Clusters will include: Top Ten, Mid-1st, Late-1st, 1st/2nd Cusp, Top-half 2nd, Btm-half 2nd, 2nd/3rd Cusp, etc. thru 7th/UDFA.

What name comes out of a given cluster can be based upon FA plans, previous picks, depth of position or other need factors. However, any player leftover in a higher cluster will be considered BPA. If the player you were targeting is taken just before you, then you just see who is next up in the cluster.

Trades? You might want to trade up to get that leftover BPA mentioned above. However, if another team calls us, then it's a matter of weighing the value of the proposed trade against the value of the player you'd pull from the cluster... including an assessment of the likelihood your player will be there later and alternatives if he is not.

It doesn't take long. Plus early there's a lot of time given (15 minutes in Rnd 1 IIRC). BY the time you get to Day 3 the time is short, but the calls are made a couple picks ahead of the pick up for swap.