jbluhm86 Posted July 22, 2020 Report Share Posted July 22, 2020 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Canton Dawg Posted July 22, 2020 Report Share Posted July 22, 2020 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MLD Woody Posted July 22, 2020 Report Share Posted July 22, 2020 As annoying as I find Shapiro and his act, I don't think he's wrong here. - The polls in 2016 weren't as off as they've been meme'd. Not on a national level - Trump didn't win 2016, Hilary lost. - People don't like both candidates now but will vote Biden because Trump is worse. But as the obvious meme that was posted immediately after you basically says, "Any poll that shows data that I don't like doesn't count because of 2016. So there!" Such an easy out Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Canton Dawg Posted July 22, 2020 Report Share Posted July 22, 2020 1 hour ago, MLD Woody said: As annoying as I find Shapiro and his act, I don't think he's wrong here. - The polls in 2016 weren't as off as they've been meme'd. Not on a national level - Trump didn't win 2016, Hilary lost. - People don't like both candidates now but will vote Biden because Trump is worse. But as the obvious meme that was posted immediately after you basically says, "Any poll that shows data that I don't like doesn't count because of 2016. So there!" Such an easy out If you take a poll outside of an arena following a Democrat or Republican convention, the results are predictable. This has always been my bitch about polls, as the data is easily skewed. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MLD Woody Posted July 22, 2020 Report Share Posted July 22, 2020 4 minutes ago, Canton Dawg said: If you take a poll outside of an arena following a Democrat or Republican convention, the results are predictable. This has always been my bitch about polls, as the data is easily skewed. That's an incredibly simplistic way of looking at it that completely ignores of the science and data analysis work involved. You don't think expert statisticians and data scientists know that? Come on. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calfoxwc Posted July 23, 2020 Report Share Posted July 23, 2020 Polls Are Not Rigged, But They Also Aren't 'Scientific ... https://www.acsh.org/news/2016/10/19/polls-are-not... Oct 19, 2016 · There is nothing scientific about a poll. (More on that later.) Second, it is conducted using sound statistical techniques. Properly done, an election poll tries to determine as accurately as possible how voters will vote in an upcoming election. 10 Things You Ought to Know About Polls - 10 Things You ... https://www.comnetwork.org/insights/10-things-about-polls No single poll should ever be taken as authoritative. No, not even polls taken by academic institutions (like the University of Michigan Survey Research Center, the National Opinion Research Center at the University of Chicago, the Quinnipiac University poll, the Marist College poll). Those polls are … Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calfoxwc Posted July 23, 2020 Report Share Posted July 23, 2020 Why Public Opinion Polls Are Increasingly Inaccurate | The ... https://www.usnews.com/news/the-report/articles/... Sep 28, 2015 · And it matters because "polling is a very important element of democracy," said Michael Traugott, a University of Michigan political science professor who specializes in polling and opinion surveys. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calfoxwc Posted July 23, 2020 Report Share Posted July 23, 2020 Why experts are getting presidential election polls wrong ... https://www.cnbc.com/2019/11/05/why-experts-are... Nov 05, 2019 · Yet most stories about the Democratic primary race focus on Joe Biden's enduring lead in national polls and not on how the Democrats are faring in … Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calfoxwc Posted July 23, 2020 Report Share Posted July 23, 2020 Most scientists 'can't replicate studies by their peers ... https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-39054778 The problem, it turned out, was not with Marcus Munafo's science, but with the way the scientific literature had been "tidied up" to present a much clearer, more robust outcome. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calfoxwc Posted July 23, 2020 Report Share Posted July 23, 2020 The Science Of Error: How Polling Botched The 2016 Election https://www.forbes.com/sites/startswithabang/2016/... Nov 09, 2016 · These types of errors are known in science circles as statistical errors. Poll more people and your errors go down, and the greater the odds that … Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Canton Dawg Posted July 23, 2020 Report Share Posted July 23, 2020 1 hour ago, MLD Woody said: That's an incredibly simplistic way of looking at it that completely ignores of the science and data analysis work involved. You don't think expert statisticians and data scientists know that? Come on. See 2016...yep they were wrong. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Axe Posted July 23, 2020 Report Share Posted July 23, 2020 Polls are worthless. I thought we learned that last cycle. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MLD Woody Posted July 23, 2020 Report Share Posted July 23, 2020 34 minutes ago, Canton Dawg said: See 2016...yep they were wrong. Sure, so now you can ignore any poll for the rest of your life that if you don't like the results. How convenient. National polling was accurate. State polling in key battleground states was lacking. Trump was a different case and it showed. But to now just ignore everything you don't like is foolish It does seem like a branch off of the "who needs these so called experts anyway!" tree though Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hammertime Posted July 23, 2020 Report Share Posted July 23, 2020 Without voter fraud, you will see landslide #’s approaching what Reagan had. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hoorta Posted July 23, 2020 Report Share Posted July 23, 2020 4 hours ago, hammertime said: Without voter fraud, you will see landslide #’s approaching what Reagan had. For Biden... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gorka Posted July 23, 2020 Report Share Posted July 23, 2020 6 hours ago, hoorta said: For Biden... And that makes you happy? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gorka Posted July 23, 2020 Report Share Posted July 23, 2020 14 hours ago, MLD Woody said: As annoying as I find Shapiro and his act, I don't think he's wrong here. - The polls in 2016 weren't as off as they've been meme'd. Not on a national level - Trump didn't win 2016, Hilary lost. - People don't like both candidates now but will vote Biden because Trump is worse. How is Trump worse? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vambo Posted July 23, 2020 Report Share Posted July 23, 2020 1 hour ago, Gorka said: How is Trump worse? Because Biden has done almost everything that they have falsely accused Trump of doing. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gorka Posted July 23, 2020 Report Share Posted July 23, 2020 48 minutes ago, Vambo said: Because Biden has done almost everything that they have falsely accused Trump of doing. Lol..that's probably a better answer for "why is Biden worse"? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vambo Posted July 23, 2020 Report Share Posted July 23, 2020 4 minutes ago, Gorka said: Lol..that's probably a better answer for "why is Biden worse"? You have to think like woody. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calfoxwc Posted July 23, 2020 Report Share Posted July 23, 2020 4 hours ago, Vambo said: You have to think like woody. You mean, "you have to FEEL like woody.....liberals dont' think, they feel issues. that's why facts don't matter, logic doesn't matte, the all the great things that Pres Trump and co. have ACCOMPLISHED FOR AMERICA don't matter. he does annoying tweets, so they FEEL UNHAPPY about the tweets. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TexasAg1969 Posted July 24, 2020 Report Share Posted July 24, 2020 15 hours ago, calfoxwc said: You mean, "you have to FEEL like woody.....liberals dont' think, they feel issues. that's why facts don't matter, logic doesn't matte, the all the great things that Pres Trump and co. have ACCOMPLISHED FOR AMERICA don't matter. he does annoying tweets, so they FEEL UNHAPPY about the tweets. You certainly have a thing about people and emotions/feelings. Must be very galling for you.🤣 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gorka Posted July 24, 2020 Report Share Posted July 24, 2020 37 minutes ago, TexasAg1969 said: You certainly have a thing about people and emotions/feelings. Must be very galling for you.🤣 No more than you always having a thing for Cal. Stick to the topic dipshit. You think Biden is gonna win? 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calfoxwc Posted July 24, 2020 Report Share Posted July 24, 2020 1 hour ago, TexasAg1969 said: You certainly have a thing about people and emotions/feelings. Must be very galling for you.🤣 you certainly lie a lot about other people. and you don't read. on purpose, I suppose. AGAIN - it's simply an observation I've made since years ago - the emotions are completely DOMINANT over liberals behavior. Look at BLM - they are "mad" about the sickening knee murder by a policeman, so they riot, burn down and loot even businesses owned by BLACK FOLKS? what is the freaking idea? Makes no sense. except they mad. ObaMao commie, scatterbrained corrupt joe biden, and a whole bunch of corrupt appointees of theirs - conspired to destroy the presidency of a president they lost to - and isn't one of them - and won't be frightened by their power. They lied to Pres Trump, lied to the FISA court three times, lied, falsely investigated, conspired with the DNC to take down the new president - just before he was INAUGURATED. Why? because they nearly consolidated their power forever. They were so powerful, other politicians feared to cross them. They were ENRAGED that they lost that chance. Now, they'll lose it forever or at least decades if PRes Trump wins. and he will. Because Real America still loves their country, their Flag/Anthem, FREEDOM and economy, except for the communist chinese flooding the earth with their virus. Most Americans will vote to re-elect Pres Trump - because if biden were to win, our country is DONE in a very bad way. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TexasAg1969 Posted July 24, 2020 Report Share Posted July 24, 2020 7 hours ago, Gorka said: No more than you always having a thing for Cal. Stick to the topic dipshit. You think Biden is gonna win? To quote George Will in a recent television interview, "Biden by a landslide". The fact Trump now says wear a mask and social distance yourself has no impact as long as his actions are still to reopen schools, a real disaster in the making. And that's how it will play out if he sticks to that nonsense. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JAFBF Posted July 25, 2020 Report Share Posted July 25, 2020 Consider. Most Conservatives are Family folk that just want to live their lives and not have to deal with the craziness of Liberalism. We've got more than enough BS from everyday life (raising a family, work, Gov, etc), we don't need the additional stress of the (Lefts) Dystopian ideas. Younger folk may get a charge out of that crap, but most people just trying to live their lives in peace just don't care/need the added layer of stupidity. Hildebeast had a 98% Victory forecast because people just didn't want the extra BS these Lib Pollsters would spew upon them. Everyone's seen exactly what I'm talking about ("Karen's", and worse). Polls are nothing but propaganda tools these days - give their side support/enthusiasm (which they lack/ed) and to demoralize the opposition by giving the (false) impression their views are far out of favor. Didn't work too well last time (with massive voter fraud) did it ? If I recall, when Trump won in 2016, he had somewhere around 18% - 20% Black voter support. That sits at over 40% right now. Hispanic / other is sitting at about 56% I believe right now, which I think is higher than 2016. Numbers don't add up to me. Outside of massive voter fraud (which they are pushing for) or low voter turn out (Covid BS anyone ?), there is no way Biden "what did I have for Breakfast" wins. Guy can't even put two coherent sentences together. Outside the fact that Hunter's been spending time/money with the "Face Off" crew - not a Snowball's chance. Real issue is House / Senate. If they cross the Executive line, they're done, because the People know better. The other two Branches are the ones to watch for shenanigans. Whole damn System is broke, and needs to be rebuilt - too damn much house cleaning needs to be done first. I've said it before, folks think it's nuts, but don't be surprised at another 8 year of POTUS due to all the illegal BS we've seen this first four years. I expect way more changes than that, but let's take this one step at a time - I've been so far ahead on items that I'm off the Reservation according to a lot folks on here.. Lotta game to go, hell, we may not even be out of the second Quarter, but we're taking control of the game - it's going to be a Blowout. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hoorta Posted July 25, 2020 Report Share Posted July 25, 2020 Great- JB you actually believe 40% of blacks support Trump? In his fantasy world? He's already spotted Joe over 100 electoral votes. Like the entire left coast + New York. He's lost that vote, plus the environmentalists, suburban college educated voters who see through his act, and aren't buying his scare tactics, and the moderate Lincoln Project Republicans. His "real Americans" arent going to be enough. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbluhm86 Posted July 25, 2020 Author Report Share Posted July 25, 2020 58 minutes ago, hoorta said: Great- JB you actually believe 40% of blacks support Trump? In his fantasy world? He's already spotted Joe over 100 electoral votes. Like the entire left coast + New York. He's lost that vote, plus the environmentalists, suburban college educated voters who see through his act, and aren't buying his scare tactics, and the moderate Lincoln Project Republicans. His "real Americans" arent going to be enough. I think you meant JAFBF and not me, but I'll answer anyway. Do I think Trump has 40% of the African American vote? No. But I do believe he has a much larger proportion of the popular vote across all races than what is being reported. It's been dubbed the "Silent Majority" by pundits, in that there are voters out there who aren't publicly admitting that they're going to vote for Trump or are considering voting for him. This is due to perceived and actual negative social and economical consequences for publicly admitting they're even considering voting Trump in November, i.e losing friends and potentially jobs for admitting as much. Also, you can't discount political movements such as the #blexit and #walkaway movements which are drawing a sizable number of voters away from the Democratic Party. Many African Americans are fed up with the Democrats kowtowing to radical socialist progressive movements and the radical elements of BLM. People are losing their homes, businesses and even their lives to the continuing rioting and violence being perpetrated by these groups, and the Democrats are supporting those groups instead of the victims of those group's violent behavior. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JAFBF Posted July 25, 2020 Report Share Posted July 25, 2020 1 hour ago, hoorta said: Great- JB you actually believe 40% of blacks support Trump? In his fantasy world? He's already spotted Joe over 100 electoral votes. Like the entire left coast + New York. He's lost that vote, plus the environmentalists, suburban college educated voters who see through his act, and aren't buying his scare tactics, and the moderate Lincoln Project Republicans. His "real Americans" arent going to be enough. Yea, I do believe that - minimum. As the insanity continues/increases - I only see this increasing. The lower wealth communities have more need of Police forces than others (all do, but proportionally it is lower income). The current level of destruction is affecting the lower income communities more than the middle to upper income Classes (who are also typically more armed). Look at what happened in MO. Those two by show of force of Arms prevented a lot of issues - they thwarted the destruction of life and property. They were Liberal Democrats, do you think Conservatives are going to be more tolerant of this criminal insanity ? The Right just want to live their lives and an end to the stupid BS we've been enslaved with. The Left (Leaders/Leadership) don't care, they're willing to burn it all to the ground if they don't have control/power. This is just a sample of what is simmering out there from what I've seen - it's been held back for a long time : No, I'm not worried about the Executive position - too many folk are on to their ways. The Spring's getting wound pretty tight, hopefully it's not put into action. If not for Q / POTUS (laugh all you want), it may well have kicked off already - I seriously see this as the only reason it hasn't. I'm constantly seeing messages to the effect of "turn us loose / give us the word" - no joke. Beware of the propaganda you follow, they're not giving the real situation of things going on. Watch China, ISIS, Antifa, and BLM - all China backed / supplied. Look at the counterfeit currency and the Arms shipments we've intercepted recently, then add the Chinese Consulates we've expelled recently. There is way more to be watching than the insanity going on in our Country, that is just part of the distraction. Lot more going on. Dangerous times. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MLD Woody Posted July 25, 2020 Report Share Posted July 25, 2020 Look at the other crazy shit JAFBF believes and then decide if you want to give his post any weight in here. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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