The Downstream Effects of Sanctioning Russia into the Stone Age

[VaporTrail]

Greetings, everyone. Let's have a chat on Russian and Ukrainian economic production.

Shortly after the dissolution of the USSR, the Russians were welcomed back into the global economy, and they've been integrated in said economy for 3 decades. The abrupt removal of them has caused some obvious shocks, such as gas prices, but will more importantly have some bigger shocks that haven't been felt yet. 

Part I:
Let's start with the elephant in the room, gas prices. I've seen a bunch of talking heads describe the Russian economy as a gas station, and there is some truth to that. They are the world's leading exporter of natural gas. Some nations in the EU get half of their oil from Russia. This is going to be a fun development to watch as they try to balance moral outrage with the practical survival of their economies. Glad I don't live there. 

Here in the US, gas prices have reached a 20 year high. You've certainly seen the Biden stickers at the gas station and also people saying that Biden doesn't control the global market. There is some truth to both. Biden's position is not an enviable one. In hindsight, the decision to EO the Keystone pipeline out of existence is looking pretty bad. He has gone, hat in hand, to the leaders of Saudi Arabia, UAE, Venezuela, and Iran to try and get them to produce more. SA and UAE didn't even bother talking to him. Venezuela and Iran told him no. So much for Biden bringing respect back to the US on the world stage. The petrodollar appears to be on its last legs. 

Biden does have more control over domestic prices than people are letting on. Only 10% of our oil imports come from Russia. Right now, the US is a huge exporter of oil. The oil majors sell American product abroad for profit, and then sell the leftovers on our domestic market. With an EO, Biden can force them to sell here first to meet our demand and lower gas prices for the Average Joe. The oil majors would not at all be thrilled by this because of the profits they would miss out on, but they would comply. If Biden were to do this, the biggest losers would be China and Africa. There will be oil conflicts sprouting up all over the world. 

I suspect that Biden temporizes and maintains the status quo. He risks losing the eco-voters if he increases fracking and pipelines at home. If the Democrats can somehow hold Congress for midterms, then maybe he plays this hand out til the end. That outcome seems unlikely, to say the least, and I could see Biden pulling the trigger on the above if the average for gas becomes $6 or higher. As I said, not an enviable position. 

tl;dr - I think the short-sighted decision to economically cripple the Russians will force Biden to choose between maintaining the global order versus cutting the rest of the world loose and preventing a domestic crisis via his decisions on domestic oil production. 

To be continued in Part II: The rest of the Russian economy

[MLD Woody]

@VaporTrail what are your thoughts on the thousands of previously approved drilling permits that the oil companies aren't using?

 

Not to get all socialist here, but maybe something as critical to our economy, and the world's, should be entirely left up to CEOs looking to get the most benefit for their shareholders.

[Canton Dawg]

6 minutes ago, MLD Woody said:

@VaporTrail what are your thoughts on the thousands of previously approved drilling permits that the oil companies aren't using?

 

Not to get all socialist here, but maybe something as critical to our economy, and the world's, should be entirely left up to CEOs looking to get the most benefit for their shareholders.

To quote an oil executive I saw on TV last week, “If you think there’s oil underground for every lease, you don’t know what you’re talking about”.

[calfoxwc]

Just now, MLD Woody said:

@VaporTrail what are your thoughts on the thousands of previously approved drilling permits that the oil companies aren't using?

 

Not to get all socialist here, but maybe something as critical to our economy, and the world's, should be entirely left up to CEOs looking to get the most benefit for their shareholders.

this took about 4 seconds. You are a moron.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-03-07/biden-administration-misusing-facts-on-oil-permits-api-says

Biden Administration Is ‘Misusing Facts’ on Oil Permits, API Says

The Biden administration has repeatedly pointed to the number of approved but untapped drilling permits on federal land when questioned about how U.S. production can rise, and what the federal government can do to help.

“There’s a fundamental misunderstanding of the administration as to how the process actually works,” Sommers said in an interview on the sidelines of the conference. 

“Just because you have a lease doesn’t mean there’s actually oil and gas in that lease, and there has to be a lot of development that occurs between the leasing and then ultimately permitting for that acreage to be productive,” he said. “I think that they’re purposefully misusing the facts here to advantage their position.” 

 

[MLD Woody]

4 hours ago, Canton Dawg said:

To quote an oil executive I saw on TV last week, “If you think there’s oil underground for every lease, you don’t know what you’re talking about”.

Of course an oil executive would say that...

... Let me know what he thinks about climate change 

[MLD Woody]

4 hours ago, calfoxwc said:

this took about 4 seconds. You are a moron.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-03-07/biden-administration-misusing-facts-on-oil-permits-api-says

Biden Administration Is ‘Misusing Facts’ on Oil Permits, API Says

The Biden administration has repeatedly pointed to the number of approved but untapped drilling permits on federal land when questioned about how U.S. production can rise, and what the federal government can do to help.

“There’s a fundamental misunderstanding of the administration as to how the process actually works,” Sommers said in an interview on the sidelines of the conference. 

“Just because you have a lease doesn’t mean there’s actually oil and gas in that lease, and there has to be a lot of development that occurs between the leasing and then ultimately permitting for that acreage to be productive,” he said. “I think that they’re purposefully misusing the facts here to advantage their position.” 

 

So all 9000+ don't have oil? How many have been surveyed?

Conservatives want people to believe there's no possible way any of these approved drilling sites could possibly help in time and then in the same breath act like the keystone pipeline extension could be ready tomorrow and would solve all of our issues ...

[Canton Dawg]

53 minutes ago, MLD Woody said:

Of course an oil executive would say that...

... Let me know what he thinks about climate change 

The same thing applies to gold, silver, diamond, and platinum mines.

Its really not that hard to figure out.

[DieHardBrownsFan]

2 hours ago, MLD Woody said:

Of course an oil executive would say that...

... Let me know what he thinks about climate change 

God, your professors really fucked you up.

[VaporTrail]

7 hours ago, MLD Woody said:

@VaporTrail what are your thoughts on the thousands of previously approved drilling permits that the oil companies aren't using?

 

Not to get all socialist here, but maybe something as critical to our economy, and the world's, should be entirely left up to CEOs looking to get the most benefit for their shareholders.

It's probably a combination of controlling the supply for maximizing profits, as you say, as well as not all sites being equal, like Canton Dawg pointed out. And there's one more thing. 

Want to see something wild? Below is a satellite picture of the US at night. 

Take a look at western North Dakota. That's pretty lit up. But then when we compare it to the map below, there are no major cities there.

So, what are those lights? They're fires from Bakken shale fields. Why are there fires at the shale fields? Because they produce more natural gas than we know how to capture. Instead of letting it into the atmosphere, we burn it off. And we burn off so much that the light it creates is comparable to the light created from Chicago to Milwaukee. More fracking permits doesn't necessarily have a linear correlation to more profits. In many cases, they'd be better off financially by increasing the efficiency of what's already there. The pressure from this conflict is going to result in some technological leaps in fracking technology - which is really fascinating to think about when you look at all the innovation that's happened in this field between 2005 and today. 

As for your suggestion of keeping these decisions out of corporate hands - I'd ask what you think the alternative should be. I've worked for the Air Force and the VA. I would warn against nationalization of this industry. I'm no fan of global corporatism, but at least seeking profits will promote efficiency. You put the federal government in charge, you're just swapping out the existing corporate infrastructure for another corporate infrastructure with exponentially more bureaucratic bloat.

[VaporTrail]

Part II: The Rest of the Russian Economy

There are three major types of fertilizer, derived from nitrogen, phosphate, or potash. Ammonia (NH3) is a byproduct of the refinement of LNG. Russia, with all their natural gas and ammonia, also happens to be the world's #1 exporter of nitrogen-based fertilizers. They are the #1 exporter of potash-based fertilizers too. Hey Cal, if you're still farming, could you give me a quick rundown of how much fertilizer cost in 2021 compared to 2020? Then could you take a wild guess at how much you think it will cost for this year's growing season?

Metals and ores... Iron and low-quality steel. Russia is the #1 exporter. Nickel ore, #1 exporter. Finished nickel, #1 exporter. You can't make stainless steel without nickel, which has anti-corrosive properties. Most surgical plates and screws are alloys with nickel in them for their anti-corrosive and hardness properties. Some lasers utilize crystals that are doped with nickel. Geniuses like the press secretary and Pete Buttigieg have suggested that we need to transition to electric cars so that states like Russia can't hold us hostage with the oil. Well, that'd be fine, except for the fact that Tesla's car batteries require almost 50kg of nickel. 

Wheat. Russia is a top 5 grain producer. Most of their export goes to the Middle East. The last time there were disruptions to this trade, it happened to correlate to the Arab Spring. Ukraine is a top 10 grain exporter. Now we're going to strain their ability to move that? Expect food conflicts to pop up abroad and/or much of the Middle East to change alignment from US to Russian/Chinese influence (as we are already starting to see). Now is a good time to grow some wheat, I think. 

Platinum. Catalytic converters. Any piece of modern electronics. Hope you got your graphics cards and latest iphone. Russia is a top 3 producer of platinum.

This is the course we are now committed to by enacting these sanctions. Again, really glad I live in the US and not anywhere else with all of this looming. 

[calfoxwc]

4 hours ago, VaporTrail said:

Part II: The Rest of the Russian Economy

There are three major types of fertilizer, derived from nitrogen, phosphate, or potash. Ammonia (NH3) is a byproduct of the refinement of LNG. Russia, with all their natural gas and ammonia, also happens to be the world's #1 exporter of nitrogen-based fertilizers. They are the #1 exporter of potash-based fertilizers too. Hey Cal, if you're still farming, could you give me a quick rundown of how much fertilizer cost in 2021 compared to 2020? Then could you take a wild guess at how much you think it will cost for this year's growing season?

Metals and ores... Iron and low-quality steel. Russia is the #1 exporter. Nickel ore, #1 exporter. Finished nickel, #1 exporter. You can't make stainless steel without nickel, which has anti-corrosive properties. Most surgical plates and screws are alloys with nickel in them for their anti-corrosive and hardness properties. Some lasers utilize crystals that are doped with nickel. Geniuses like the press secretary and Pete Buttigieg have suggested that we need to transition to electric cars so that states like Russia can't hold us hostage with the oil. Well, that'd be fine, except for the fact that Tesla's car batteries require almost 50kg of nickel. 

Wheat. Russia is a top 5 grain producer. Most of their export goes to the Middle East. The last time there were disruptions to this trade, it happened to correlate to the Arab Spring. Ukraine is a top 10 grain exporter. Now we're going to strain their ability to move that? Expect food conflicts to pop up abroad and/or much of the Middle East to change alignment from US to Russian/Chinese influence (as we are already starting to see). Now is a good time to grow some wheat, I think. 

Platinum. Catalytic converters. Any piece of modern electronics. Hope you got your graphics cards and latest iphone. Russia is a top 3 producer of platinum.

This is the course we are now committed to by enacting these sanctions. Again, really glad I live in the US and not anywhere else with all of this looming. 

Excellent stuff, Vapor ! Thanks !

[The Cysko Kid]

15 hours ago, MLD Woody said:

So all 9000+ don't have oil? How many have been surveyed?

Conservatives want people to believe there's no possible way any of these approved drilling sites could possibly help in time and then in the same breath act like the keystone pipeline extension could be ready tomorrow and would solve all of our issues ...

Come on woody. You're supposedly an engineer. Say there is a few million barrels below some federal reserve in Butte Montana or something. Do you suspect they can just set up a drill and start producing tomorrow? That proceee takes a long time. Especially with your peeps, the climate change fanatics, getting in the way at every step. 

[hammertime]

12 minutes ago, The Cysko Kid said:

Come on woody. You're supposedly an engineer. Say there is a few million barrels below some federal reserve in Butte Montana or something. Do you suspect they can just set up a drill and start producing tomorrow? That proceee takes a long time. Especially with your peeps, the climate change fanatics, getting in the way at every step. 

Nothing else matters anymore to the liberals.  Only orange man bad…  If you could have felt the stinging of their tears when 45 won you would know their anguish.

[calfoxwc]

The other problem is "bait and switch".

The hostility of obaMao/biden/left is obvious.

Sure, there are that many? 9,000?

They just had the EPA establish rules that make it too expensive and hard

to use them.

https://lidblog.com/obamas-war-against-oil-drilling-epa/

Obama Continues War Against Oil. EPA Rules Force Shell to Abandon Drilling Plans in Alaska

"The appeals board which ruled against Shell has been loaded by President Obama to get these kind of results.  The board has four members all are Democrats and one Kathie Stein was an activist attorney for the Environmental Defense Fund. "

" The EPA’s appeals board ruled that Shell had not taken into consideration emissions from an ice-breaking vessel when calculating overall greenhouse gas emissions from the project. Environmental groups were thrilled by the ruling. "

" The appeals board which ruled against Shell has been loaded by President Obama to get these kind of results.  The board has four members all are Democrats and one Kathie Stein was an activist attorney for the Environmental Defense Fund. "

but going with 9,000 leases is ignorant unless you are biden and pissaki - it's a half-truth designed to make

gullible leftwing democrat groupies to go with it.

[The Cysko Kid]

The answer to this is sitting right in front of us with technology that already exists today. It's called air to fuel or A2F. It pulls the carbon dioxide out of the air and mixes it with hydrogen from water to create synthetic fuel that current gasoline engines can use. Again, this is not science fiction, it exists right now. Yeah it's expensive to produce but it's carbon neutral this satisfying everyone. With a real cash injection for development we could easily break the dependence on fossil fuels. 

[calfoxwc]

1 minute ago, The Cysko Kid said:

The answer to this is sitting right in front of us with technology that already exists today. It's called air to fuel or A2F. It pulls the carbon dioxide out of the air and mixes it with hydrogen from water to create synthetic fuel that current gasoline engines can use. Again, this is not science fiction, it exists right now. Yeah it's expensive to produce but it's carbon neutral this satisfying everyone. With a real cash injection for development we could easily break the dependence on fossil fuels. 

wow. I didn't know that !

[Canton Dawg]

As a member of a VC group (venture capitalists) I was intrigued by the air to fuel process.

Its some exciting stuff!
 

https://carbonengineering.com/news-updates/ce-demonstrates-air-fuels/

[Westside Steve]

2 hours ago, Canton Dawg said:

As a member of a VC group (venture capitalists) I was intrigued by the air to fuel process.

Its some exciting stuff!
 

https://carbonengineering.com/news-updates/ce-demonstrates-air-fuels/

Oh you had Woody excited for a minute he thought VC stood for Viet Cong.

WSS

[MLD Woody]

2 hours ago, The Cysko Kid said:

The answer to this is sitting right in front of us with technology that already exists today. It's called air to fuel or A2F. It pulls the carbon dioxide out of the air and mixes it with hydrogen from water to create synthetic fuel that current gasoline engines can use. Again, this is not science fiction, it exists right now. Yeah it's expensive to produce but it's carbon neutral this satisfying everyone. With a real cash injection for development we could easily break the dependence on fossil fuels. 

How do you propose we start using that technology on a production scale? 

You said it is currently expensive. Do you want to wait for the free market to pick it up or do you have another proposal?

[MLD Woody]

3 hours ago, The Cysko Kid said:

Come on woody. You're supposedly an engineer. Say there is a few million barrels below some federal reserve in Butte Montana or something. Do you suspect they can just set up a drill and start producing tomorrow? That proceee takes a long time. Especially with your peeps, the climate change fanatics, getting in the way at every step. 

"Supposedly". Oh lovely, starting off with an insult. I'll power through....

I never said they could start drilling tomorrow. I pointed out the political charged talking point out there that the KXL pipeline would just solve all of our problems. That's overlooking all of these permits, plus other solutions like the one you mentioned below. My point is not to say those 9000 other permits would solve the crisis tomorrow. It's to say:

- Immediately this issue is becoming political in an attempt to own the other side. In this thread the first response from Cal started. And on this issue, we're seeing the politicization from the right in regards to KXL. 

- There are over ways costs could be reduced or production increased, but the oil companies want to protect profits, shareholders and executives. That is their main concern, not the average citizen.

If you or anyone else still feels man made climate change isn't occurring at this point I'm not sure what else can be done. Can them fanatics if it helps you feel better about your stance. I hope we can right the climate ship eventually though. 

[MLD Woody]

16 hours ago, VaporTrail said:

Part II: The Rest of the Russian Economy

There are three major types of fertilizer, derived from nitrogen, phosphate, or potash. Ammonia (NH3) is a byproduct of the refinement of LNG. Russia, with all their natural gas and ammonia, also happens to be the world's #1 exporter of nitrogen-based fertilizers. They are the #1 exporter of potash-based fertilizers too. Hey Cal, if you're still farming, could you give me a quick rundown of how much fertilizer cost in 2021 compared to 2020? Then could you take a wild guess at how much you think it will cost for this year's growing season?

Metals and ores... Iron and low-quality steel. Russia is the #1 exporter. Nickel ore, #1 exporter. Finished nickel, #1 exporter. You can't make stainless steel without nickel, which has anti-corrosive properties. Most surgical plates and screws are alloys with nickel in them for their anti-corrosive and hardness properties. Some lasers utilize crystals that are doped with nickel. Geniuses like the press secretary and Pete Buttigieg have suggested that we need to transition to electric cars so that states like Russia can't hold us hostage with the oil. Well, that'd be fine, except for the fact that Tesla's car batteries require almost 50kg of nickel. 

Wheat. Russia is a top 5 grain producer. Most of their export goes to the Middle East. The last time there were disruptions to this trade, it happened to correlate to the Arab Spring. Ukraine is a top 10 grain exporter. Now we're going to strain their ability to move that? Expect food conflicts to pop up abroad and/or much of the Middle East to change alignment from US to Russian/Chinese influence (as we are already starting to see). Now is a good time to grow some wheat, I think. 

Platinum. Catalytic converters. Any piece of modern electronics. Hope you got your graphics cards and latest iphone. Russia is a top 3 producer of platinum.

This is the course we are now committed to by enacting these sanctions. Again, really glad I live in the US and not anywhere else with all of this looming. 

Great info. My follow up question would be Russia's "market size", and not necessarily their rank. They could be #1 nickel exporter, but if 40 countries are major players in the space, then the impact may be overstated just by stating that Russia is the biggest. 

I don't know that to be true, it's just what I would ask for next to better understand the impact.

[FairHooker11]

18 minutes ago, Westside Steve said:

Oh you had Woody excited for a minute he thought VC stood for Viet Cong.

WSS

yea labels you know 😉

[The Cysko Kid]

1 hour ago, MLD Woody said:

How do you propose we start using that technology on a production scale? 

You said it is currently expensive. Do you want to wait for the free market to pick it up or do you have another proposal?

Expensive like 3.82 a gallon looks pretty good right now. It certainly beats the ever loving shit out of fossil fuel wars or ethanol or yes, even the day's darling, EV. Certainly there would be far less infrastructure investment in developing A2F than trying to convert the entire nation over to Electric given the obvious limitations to the technology and the need to change the entire infrastructure to support electric. 

[MLD Woody]

17 hours ago, VaporTrail said:

It's probably a combination of controlling the supply for maximizing profits, as you say, as well as not all sites being equal, like Canton Dawg pointed out. And there's one more thing. 

Want to see something wild? Below is a satellite picture of the US at night. 

Take a look at western North Dakota. That's pretty lit up. But then when we compare it to the map below, there are no major cities there.

So, what are those lights? They're fires from Bakken shale fields. Why are there fires at the shale fields? Because they produce more natural gas than we know how to capture. Instead of letting it into the atmosphere, we burn it off. And we burn off so much that the light it creates is comparable to the light created from Chicago to Milwaukee. More fracking permits doesn't necessarily have a linear correlation to more profits. In many cases, they'd be better off financially by increasing the efficiency of what's already there. The pressure from this conflict is going to result in some technological leaps in fracking technology - which is really fascinating to think about when you look at all the innovation that's happened in this field between 2005 and today. 

As for your suggestion of keeping these decisions out of corporate hands - I'd ask what you think the alternative should be. I've worked for the Air Force and the VA. I would warn against nationalization of this industry. I'm no fan of global corporatism, but at least seeking profits will promote efficiency. You put the federal government in charge, you're just swapping out the existing corporate infrastructure for another corporate infrastructure with exponentially more bureaucratic bloat.

Again, great post. Thanks for the info 

 

I agree that Russia's actions will drive change in the oil industry. I would argue that there should be "inorganic" reasons to drive that change instead of waiting for something like this. Oil companies are massively profitable and their main concern is improving that profit, not adequately supplying a critical product to the economy. If investing in more efficient equipment, or acting on those 9000 permits, doesn't financially make sense then it won't be done. I'd argue something the crucial shouldn't be left to the market and executives.

Yes, there is bloat in govt orgs. Tons of waste. No doubt. You're saying profits will provide incentives to seek efficiency, but in your same post you show how they're not getting more efficient with shale. If it doesn't benefit then to increase output or efficiency then they have no reason to do that, because their only driving forces are profits and shareholders, not the greater good. Instead we're waiting for outside forces, organic or otherwise, to change their calculus. 

[MLD Woody]

1 minute ago, The Cysko Kid said:

Expensive like 3.82 a gallon looks pretty good right now. It certainly beats the ever loving shit out of fossil fuel wars or ethanol or yes, even the day's darling, EV. Certainly there would be far less infrastructure investment in developing A2F than trying to convert the entire nation over to Electric given the obvious limitations to the technology and the need to change the entire infrastructure to support electric. 

Right, but again, if this is the direction to think we should go then what are you going to do to drive us there? It doesn't make sense for large energy companies or it would be happening by now. Do you wait and hope the math changes, or do you use government intervention to force their hand?

 

(And that's with us just avoiding getting into EVs)

[calfoxwc]

1 hour ago, MLD Woody said:

"Supposedly". Oh lovely, starting off with an insult. I'll power through....I never said they could start drilling tomorrow. I pointed out the political charged talking point out there that the KXL pipeline would just solve all of our problems. That's overlooking all of these permits, plus other solutions like the one you mentioned below. My point is not to say those 9000 other permits would solve the crisis tomorrow. It's to say:

- Immediately this issue is becoming political in an attempt to own the other side. In this thread the first response from Cal started. And on this issue, we're seeing the politicization from the right in regards to KXL. 

- There are over ways costs could be reduced or production increased, but the oil companies want to protect profits, shareholders and executives. That is their main concern, not the average citizen.

If you or anyone else still feels man made climate change isn't occurring at this point I'm not sure what else can be done. Can them fanatics if it helps you feel better about your stance. I hope we can right the climate ship eventually though. 

yes, climate changes. can you spell "stupid" without looking it up?

What you mean to say is "man made global warming"....which is a crock.

so you changed the name to something you can hand your feathers on.

climate changes. even Whoorta knows that.

but mmgw is a redistribution of wealth to the worthless UN, and a political

manipulation tool to accrue votes from illiterate college students who can't think.

like you.

 

[calfoxwc]

I will borrow a horse and buggy and wear a wide brimmed black hat and grow a beard before

I ever buy an electric car. Hell will freeze over first.

It will never happen. Never as in, you betcha not going to.

[VaporTrail]

21 hours ago, calfoxwc said:

Excellent stuff, Vapor ! Thanks !

Cal, could you answer my questions about fertilizer prices? I want to know how much you paid in 2020, how much you paid in 2021, and how much you think you'll pay this year.

10 hours ago, MLD Woody said:

Great info. My follow up question would be Russia's "market size", and not necessarily their rank. They could be #1 nickel exporter, but if 40 countries are major players in the space, then the impact may be overstated just by stating that Russia is the biggest. 

I don't know that to be true, it's just what I would ask for next to better understand the impact.

Below is sourced from statista. data is from 2020. I have read estimates that range from 7-15% range for their market share of all nickel products. When you look at refined nickel products, such as the stuff that goes into EV batteries, they have somewhere between 15-25% of the market. Of the countries below, Indonesia has the biggest reserves, which we will expect them to tap. However, I won't wager a guess at how long it would take to increase that production.

 

 

8 hours ago, MLD Woody said:

Again, great post. Thanks for the info 

 

I agree that Russia's actions will drive change in the oil industry. I would argue that there should be "inorganic" reasons to drive that change instead of waiting for something like this. Oil companies are massively profitable and their main concern is improving that profit, not adequately supplying a critical product to the economy. If investing in more efficient equipment, or acting on those 9000 permits, doesn't financially make sense then it won't be done. I'd argue something the crucial shouldn't be left to the market and executives.

Yes, there is bloat in govt orgs. Tons of waste. No doubt. You're saying profits will provide incentives to seek efficiency, but in your same post you show how they're not getting more efficient with shale. If it doesn't benefit then to increase output or efficiency then they have no reason to do that, because their only driving forces are profits and shareholders, not the greater good. Instead we're waiting for outside forces, organic or otherwise, to change their calculus. 

 

8 hours ago, MLD Woody said:

Right, but again, if this is the direction to think we should go then what are you going to do to drive us there? It doesn't make sense for large energy companies or it would be happening by now. Do you wait and hope the math changes, or do you use government intervention to force their hand?

Woody, you need to define what "the greater good" is. I would argue that the US government and the oil super majors have more or less been on the same page since the cold war, as they've had an overlap of interests. From the oil tycoon perspective, the more oil that is efficiently flowing across the globe, the higher the profits. From the US government's perspective, the more oil that flows, the more valuable the petrodollar, and that acts as a further support for American hegemony. If I had to guess at what your definition of greater good is, it would be the economic improvement and well-being of less industrialized countries, which would also overlap with what the US order and the oil super majors have done to this point. We might actually see the government forcing their hand, and while it would be better for the average Joe American, it certainly won't be for the greater good of the world.

If any of you geezers could weigh in on what politics were like during the oil crisis of the 70s, I'd be happy to listen. Does now feel comparable to the 70s?

Quote

(And that's with us just avoiding getting into EVs)

That's part III

[FairHooker11]

just an opinion

 MAGA included the dream  bringing the industries back to America 

that had been lost to say China, Russia for the sole purpose of protecting us (US) from such forewarned 

foreign strategies that could blindside us at will?

I dont know, but Id be willing to bet that the voices in the past that said our national interests were at risk,

were systematically DROWNED out by those who are NOW in charge politically and what is currently in play?

the worst of which can be left up to our imagination.

 

 

[calfoxwc]

13 hours ago, VaporTrail said:

Cal, could you answer my questions about fertilizer prices? I want to know how much you paid in 2020, how much you paid in 2021, and how much you think you'll pay this year.

well, it depends - I don't know where the paper work is, but regular fertilizers have dramatically increased...

from 2020 to 2021, corn fertilizer (corn needs a LOT of nitrogen) - the price increased about 50%. Over just one acre, that's a lot.

I don't do soybeans anymore - I have refused to use roundup for years now, but a farmer friend that does - says soybean fertilizer has gone up about 25% during the above time frame. Soybeans don't need all that nitrogen.

If you need to add potash fertilizer, I had to phone a friend - that went up about 38% he said.

Consider the hundreds of lbs per acre, for  a farmer that does many acres, his own and neighbors' large fields ...

(most farmers try to farm as many acres as possible to increase their profit margin) the cost is dramatic. Add to the cost of gas/diesel fuel, etc....

food prices are not going to be friendly soon. I may grow a survival food field this year. lol.

buckwheat, sweet corn, and other things.

Some farmers have gone organic - at least unofficially, like me - and the fertilizer costs is far higher.  To qualify for official organic status, that takes bucks and time.

   It seems that food prices are going to go way up, I fear - so many people not as well off as a lot of us - are going to

struggle. When inflation upsets the apple cart of profitability - that doesn't bode well for farmers who have a 350,000 used combine - a 125,000 tractor, fertilizer sprayers, $8,000 planters (we used to have one of those - and we bought it USED).....

people don't know the relatively small profitability margin farmers deal with. maintenance costs, fuel costs, fertilizer costs, and farmers pay rent to other land owners to farm their land, etc etc....

prices are going up and it could be worse than some folks can imagine.

I just bought a pressure canner/cooker - and have been dyhydrating fruits and unfrozen vegetables. Vegetables and meats must be pressure canned.

Folks need to consider that costs will go up for the farmer, for the moving of farmer's crops to buyers, for buyers to process and bag, for transporting to distribution warehouses, for delivery to stores, .... it doesn't take much mismanagement and stupid mmgw and endless money printing for prices to explode.

We have been working a good bit on self-sustainability to a degree. I want to put in a fish pond.

A big farmer friend is concerned, but has to keep on keeping on, he said. I had him cut and bale hay off our field, and gave him the

big round bales - for his cattle. He's a friend.  Oh, last year, he bought fertilizer wholesale from the producing plant. The plant has now shut down, and he will have to buy fertizlier retail. That is a very bad sign.