The Downstream Effects of Sanctioning Russia into the Stone Age

[DieHardBrownsFan1]

Those sanctions are really killing the Russians:

 

[calfoxwc]

1 hour ago, MLD Woody said:

- three years old

- conservative group

- funded by the oil industry

- 500 worldwide is a laughably small number

- I'd be qualified to add my name to that list

yes, it said it was three years old. So what? It's WORSE now. You really think a liberal group will post valid anti-climate change information? the UN ??????

egad.

There were two other links I posted. Care to comment on the content for the first time?

[MLD Woody]

2 hours ago, calfoxwc said:

yes, it said it was three years old. So what? It's WORSE now. You really think a liberal group will post valid anti-climate change information? the UN ??????

egad.

There were two other links I posted. Care to comment on the content for the first time?

Cal, we've had this back and forth for years. You throw shit at the wall and hope something sticks. You also don't read anything you post. You just regurgitate results from Google searches like "man made climate change fake". 

I picked one. I did comment on it. You just don't like the facts I pointed out about it. 

I'm absolutely not wasting my time wading through all of the shit you post. 

Simply calling out one of your links and the faults in it (which took minutes) is good enough for me

[DieHardBrownsFan1]

1 hour ago, MLD Woody said:

Cal, we've had this back and forth for years. You throw shit at the wall and hope something sticks. You also don't read anything you post. You just regurgitate results from Google searches like "man made climate change fake". 

I picked one. I did comment on it. You just don't like the facts I pointed out about it. 

I'm absolutely not wasting my time wading through all of the shit you post. 

Simply calling out one of your links and the faults in it (which took minutes) is good enough for me

[VaporTrail]

Military

I mentioned Egypt/Ethiopian/Sudanese relations with respect to an Ethiopian dam being built in a previous post. This week, there were border clashes at the Ethiopia/Sudan border resulting in 7 dead Sudanese soldiers. Sudan's government has filed a complaint with the UN and has accused Ethiopia of executing them.

Back to Ukraine. As I have mentioned multiple times, I agree with PZ's assessment that this is an existential crisis for the Russians, meaning that there will be no backing down until their objective, destruction of the Ukrainian state is achieved. 

Refresher on the early war. The Russian military and leadership clearly expected a cakewalk and might have actually believed that the Ukrainians would welcome them with open arms. Putin was also on record as saying he could take Kyiv in two weeks. They made a rush for the capital, most likely to depose Zelenskyy and install a leader of their own. They assumed that this would be a quick victory. This turned out to be a faulty assumption and resulted in a 40-mile-convoy to Kyiv that, much to the delight of western media, ran out of fuel and tires. At this point, the "two more weeks" meme flips and now it's the West who begins to claim that Russia will only be able to fight for two more weeks. This also did not happen.

At some point, the Russian strategy changed, and Russian forces were prevented from making advances into Kyiv. This froze a lot of Ukrainian assets in central Ukraine and prevented them from reinforcing the coastal axis. At the beginning of April, Russians withdrew from the north and instead focused all their efforts on the coastal city of Mariupol. Western media continues to signal an optimistic outlook for Ukraine, focusing on the lack of efficacy of heavy weapons. 

The US military role has been to supply Ukraine with anti-tank missiles, such as the javelin and NLAW, artillery pieces, such as HIMARS, M777, and CAESARS, and anti-aircraft missiles, such as Stingers. The US has sent over so many of some of these technologies that the supply has been depleted. Thankfully, for our friends at Raytheon and Lockheed, Uncle Sam has renewed massive contracts for further supply, and these companies are outperforming the S&P 500. Unfortunately, for the Ukrainians, no more of these will be available for almost 3 years, as the supply chain ramps up. Flooding the country with Stinger missiles has limited what the RuAF is able to do, because even though they've shot down all the Ukrainian fighter jets, any wahoo could be hiding in a bush with a Stinger. 

Why are we spending all of this money and why are we so invested in not allowing Russia to annex a non-NATO country? If you believe Zeihan, the geopolitical analyst and former StratFor employee, there are high up sources in the government who, as of 1-2 months ago, believed the following: Given the Russian underperformance against a JV military, if it got to the point where NATO had to go toe-to-toe with them, the Russians would be humiliated. If that was the case, there are some who believe that Putin would be willing to fling some short-range nukes around rather than face capitulation. Therefore, if you can repel them and grind down their morale and manpower and military before they could sniff a NATO border, you can avoid that situation. It's going to cost a significant amount of Ukrainian lives. Source for this is one of his videos on his YT channel. They're all worth watching, but keep in mind that he makes his living off of pumping up Americans, and as a result he tends to be overly optimistic for us when it comes to his predictions. 

Back to the situation on the ground, things have ground down into artillery battles, with the Russian military slowly making progress. Since April, they have taken control of Mariupol in the south. Their main axis of attack has shifted from the southern coast to the east on the way to Kharkov. Below is a map dated 6/27 showing the troop strength, which is something that gets glossed over on the maps that only show territory. This guy's Twitter is amazing if you are into maps. You can see that the majority of Ukrainian troops are in the East, and that they are in danger of being cut off. Last week, Ukrainian forces gave up Sievierodonetsk, which was just east of the current bulge. Things are looking quite bleak for the Ukrainian armed forces. If you believe Russian sources, they are under the impression that if they can break them here, there will be significantly less organized resistance to move their army across the rest of the country. 

 

Unsurprisingly, the media coverage of the war has been considerably less enthusiastic, with reports of Biden considering asking Zelenskyy to shift his victory conditions. My take on this is that the Russians are eventually going to march on Odessa and Kyiv. Ukraine will cease to exist as a functioning state. 

These last 80 years have been an anomaly. There has never been as much peace on the European or Asian continents than there has in that period. This is because of the Bretton Woods agreement and Americans deciding that our Navy will not only protect American trade, but also guarantee open trade on the seas for everyone.

In the G7 communique from my last post, the Western leaders were looking into options to stop Russian tankers from shipping LNG and oil. Depending on how aggressively Biden wants to go, it could be the straw that ends the American-led global order and the protected shipping lanes (i.e. - the entire global oceans). If he decides to let the navy seize one of their LNG tankers, then best case scenario, we go back to colonialism and every country protecting their own trade routes. Worst case? 

[calfoxwc]

10 hours ago, MLD Woody said:

Cal, we've had this back and forth for years. You throw shit at the wall and hope something sticks. You also don't read anything you post. You just regurgitate results from Google searches like "man made climate change fake". 

I picked one. I did comment on it. You just don't like the facts I pointed out about it. 

I'm absolutely not wasting my time wading through all of the shit you post. 

Simply calling out one of your links and the faults in it (which took minutes) is good enough for me

baloney. 3 years old doesn't make for the content to be invalid in this case, especially.

you ignored the other two because you can't find anything to try to fake discredit them with. lol.

 

[VaporTrail]

Forgot to mention Kaliningrad. It's the former seat of the Prussian Empire that sits on the coast of the Baltic Sea, north of Poland. It is separated from Moscow by the Baltic states. One of the Baltic states that sits on the most direct route between Kaliningrad and Moscow is Lithuania. Last week, Lithuania announced they will blockade the Russian trade routes between Kaliningrad and Moscow. This is a huge deal for Russia as it gets rid of one of their two major access points to the Atlantic Ocean. As such, it's seen as an escalation, with much of the EU, including Germany, trying to come up with a compromise. Germany, in particular, has troops stationed there. If Russia makes a move to secure the route through Lithuanian territory, then we are essentially looking at something that should be the start of an open conflict between Russia and NATO. 

One of Putin's strategic objectives of this invasion is to drive enough of a wedge between Germany and the rest of the EU, that the Germans would be unwilling to make good on their NATO commitments. It's a sort of domino theory for the 2020s. I don't know that the Russians will achieve this objective, but relations within the EU certainly appear strained.

[jbluhm86]

At this point, it's looking like we're sanctioning ourselves into the stone age, not Russia.

[DieHardBrownsFan1]

Russia is selling all more oil now than they did before the invasion.  China will gladly buy all of it I'm sure.

[Canton Dawg]

I think I mentioned a while back, that sanctioning Russia is like spitting into the wind.

[jbluhm86]

I wonder if I should increase my stake in ruble holding EFTs? Gotta pad my 401k during this upcoming recession.

[Westside Steve]

On 6/30/2022 at 11:03 PM, jbluhm86 said:

I wonder if I should increase my stake in ruble holding EFTs? Gotta pad my 401k during this upcoming recession.

Well if anybody had a crystal ball it would be great but.... I just had a meeting with my broker about that very thing. He doesn't believe we should make any wholesale changes to my admittedly varied Investments right now. Pointed out something that I'd read elsewhere I forget the exact numbers but a bear market lasts for x amount of months and a bull market for substantially longer. He sees the housing market as at least leveling off and thinks we might be at, or close to, the bottom and things should start looking up. There could be a case made for a bounce back if and when the Republicans retake the houses, or even if they don't at least it would dispel a little bit of the uncertainty that the market hates.

WSS

[jbluhm86]

15 hours ago, Westside Steve said:

Well if anybody had a crystal ball it would be great but.... I just had a meeting with my broker about that very thing. He doesn't believe we should make any wholesale changes to my admittedly varied Investments right now. Pointed out something that I'd read elsewhere I forget the exact numbers but a bear market lasts for x amount of months and a bull market for substantially longer. He sees the housing market as at least leveling off and thinks we might be at, or close to, the bottom and things should start looking up. There could be a case made for a bounce back if and when the Republicans retake the houses, or even if they don't at least it would dispel a little bit of the uncertainty that the market hates.

WSS

I don't even think we've come close to hitting the bottom on this economic downturn. Personally, I believe that this recession is going to be the worst one since the Great Depression.

[calfoxwc]

still time to check out my survival thread. I think hard times are going to be hitting. Another two years of ideological total screw-ups.....

sad.

[Westside Steve]

7 hours ago, jbluhm86 said:

I don't even think we've come close to hitting the bottom on this economic downturn. Personally, I believe that this recession is going to be the worst one since the Great Depression.

Well that will most definitely suck. And I don't dispute that there are warning signs. Back to that crystal ball thing I guess.

WSS

[Vambo]

Jeff Bezos rips Biden's 'misdirection' on inflation, says Manchin 'saved' Dems 'from themselves'

[VaporTrail]

If you posted this exact opinion 3 months ago, you were labelled a Russian asset. 

[hammertime]

I think I’ll go wrap my tree trunk in Ukrainian colors so I can virtue signal to the whole neighborhood…. And wear my mask while doing it. SMH 🤦‍♂️ 

[calfoxwc]

yes, the Ukraine has a corruption history.

But the Zelinski gov is the citizens response to fixing it.

when russia "owned" the gov, yep - the corruption was not fought against.

But the Ukraine people voted in a new, legit gov.

No reason to not help the Ukraine fight off the sickening war crimes by russia.

https://ukraineworld.org/articles/ukraine-explained/nine-things-know-about-ukraines-fight-against-corruption

[hammertime]

8 minutes ago, calfoxwc said:

yes, the Ukraine has a corruption history.

But the Zelinski gov is the citizens response to fixing it.

when russia "owned" the gov, yep - the corruption was not fought against.

But the Ukraine people voted in a new, legit gov.

No reason to not help the Ukraine fight off the sickening war crimes by russia.

https://ukraineworld.org/articles/ukraine-explained/nine-things-know-about-ukraines-fight-against-corruption

Wow.  Just like that all the corruption is gone because an actor was made the leader?

I doubt it.  Where is all the money going that the USA is gift wrapping?

 

Corruption history?  Beyond comprehension is the amount of corruption and still there.  Just look at the resources Ukraine has,  nah, crooks are not gonna walk away from that honeypot.

[calfoxwc]

1 minute ago, hammertime said:

Wow.  Just like that all the corruption is gone because an actor was made the leader?

I doubt it.  Where is all the money going that the USA is gift wrapping?

now I meant nothing of the sort, dang it. We have corruption in America, too. Does that mean millions of citizens should be enslaved, raped, murdered, and forced to leave our country because of it?

[DieHardBrownsFan1]

Remember all the billions we lost in Afghanistan?  You think Afghan leader who fled with cargo loads full of $$ was good?  I don't trust Zelinski or his wife over here begging for even more billions of dollars.  Where the fuck is Europe in all this?   We have given way more than all of Europe combined.

[VaporTrail]

5 hours ago, calfoxwc said:

yes, the Ukraine has a corruption history.

But the Zelinski gov is the citizens response to fixing it.

when russia "owned" the gov, yep - the corruption was not fought against.

But the Ukraine people voted in a new, legit gov.

No reason to not help the Ukraine fight off the sickening war crimes by russia.

https://ukraineworld.org/articles/ukraine-explained/nine-things-know-about-ukraines-fight-against-corruption

legit government? No. The only reason Zelenskyy's party is in power is because the US orchestrated a coup to overthrow a democratically elected pro-Russian government in 2013-2014. 

[calfoxwc]

38 minutes ago, VaporTrail said:

legit government? No. The only reason Zelenskyy's party is in power is because the US orchestrated a coup to overthrow a democratically elected pro-Russian government in 2013-2014. 

the previous president was a dirty player, and very, very rich. His company sold chocolate beans to russia. etc etc etc etc.

He was good friends with the bidens. That should speak volumes.

Petro Poroshenko - was saying one thing, and doing another. I don't see anything about any "coup". It was elections that russia did not control when Zelenski was elected. I would like to read up on your "coup" claim - haven't found anything in a short look....

[VaporTrail]

20 minutes ago, calfoxwc said:

the previous president was a dirty player, and very, very rich. His company sold chocolate beans to russia. etc etc etc etc.

He was good friends with the bidens. That should speak volumes.

Petro Poroshenko - was saying one thing, and doing another. I don't see anything about any "coup". It was elections that russia did not control when Zelenski was elected. I would like to read up on your "coup" claim - haven't found anything in a short look....

Because that would involve the Obama administration admitting that they were largely responsible for the mess that led to this conflict. Surely, you of all people here wouldn't expect him to do that.

[calfoxwc]

1 minute ago, VaporTrail said:

Because that would involve the Obama administration admitting that they were largely responsible for the mess that led to this conflict. Surely, you of all people here wouldn't expect him to do that.

lol

[VaporTrail]

Don't have time to post like I used to anymore. But let's do an update. 

The Russian offensive has stalled, and the Ukrainians currently have the initiative, taking back large swaths of land in the northeast. I assume that both sides are losing lots of human life in the setting of a drastic change to the front. The current situation brings up a couple of questions. 

What if the Ukrainians take back all their territory? That would be a humiliating Russian military defeat. It would also require the Russians to agree to cessation of hostilities without achieving their objective of demilitarizing Ukraine. This is politically unacceptable to Putin, and I expect that someone would usurp power. But I'd be cautious on cheering too hard for the next guy. Remember, Putin was Time's person of the year, and the West cheered him into office. 

Will Russia do a full mobilization? Up until now, they've been waging war with only volunteer and PMC forces. In the past week, one of their commanders has called for 1,000 volunteers from each of the 85 states that comprise Russia. There is a pretty wild video out there of a PMC Wagner representative talking to a penal colony to recruit them and offer them freedom for service. There are politicians in their Duma calling for full mobilization.

Will Russia learn from their mistakes on the logistics side of things? Full mobilization won't mean dick if they can't feed and fuel their army, especially in the winter. Their logistics supply problem has been a nightmare to solve. Every NATO country and their brother are sending the Ukrainians long range artillery to help disrupt these supply lines, and they've seen enough success to not only cripple the Russian advance, but to actually take back territory near Kharkiv. 

What will happen if Ukraine manages to secure a ceasefire (or win)? Hopefully, the Russians won't be so humiliated that they fling a nuke. Economically, Ukraine is in shambles, much of their population dispersed throughout Europe, and many of them killed. Oh, and they're technically "borrowing" what the West is giving to them. There is no way this will ever be paid back. Who's going to move to Ukraine knowing that it's a flashpoint for the big war? 

What about the rest of Europe? Even if Russia cedes all the territory back to Ukraine, they likely aren't going to willingly reopen trade with Europe. In spite of the vaunted economic sanctions, the quality of life for the average Russian hasn't appeared to have taken much of a hit, given their energy independence and overall lower standard of living than the rest of Europe. 

Lastly, I want to mention a dynamic that isn't often talked about - the geopolitical relationship between Europe and the rest of the world. If Canada and the US are the EU's greatest allies, then why aren't we opening up our oil surplus to them? The Gulf states also don't appear to be willing to help either. I posit that what we're seeing these political blocs attempting to weaken the EU enough to reduce their influence, but not so much that they get rid of its status as a cash cow. The dollar has made historical gains on the Euro in the past few months. The BRICS coalition is quietly showing that they don't really need the West as much as the West thinks they do. This will be the topic to watch out for over the next decade. 

Hope everyone is doing well.

[DieHardBrownsFan1]