The Running Back Conundrum (Richardson Thread)

[Socalbamafan]

Socalbamafan, on 19 April 2012 - 02:14 PM, said:

As an Alabama fan all I can say is Trent is a great guy and a hellava football player. This would a great pick for u guys. btw, we refer to Trent on our boards as MFBATR. Figure it out.

 

 

Mother Fuckin Bad Ass Trent Richardson?

 

 

U r correct, sir

[PoeticG]

And now for something completely different...

 

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http://www.dawgsbynature.com/2012/4/12/2907735/an-exercise-in-value-why-the-browns-still-should-not-draft-trent

 

An Exercise in Value: Why the Browns Still Should Not Draft Trent Richardson

by rufio on Apr 12, 2012 1:50 AM EDT

 

I think Trent Richardson will go extremely high in this April's NFL draft. I see him as easily one of the top 10 players available, I think he'll be a great running back in the NFL, and he reminds me more of Jamal Lewis than Cedric Benson. Recently, experts like Mike Mayock have agreed that Richardson is pretty damn good.

 

I still don't think we should draft him.

 

The prospect of adding a weapon of that caliber to this talent-thirsty offense is hard to pass up. But the NFL draft does not occur in a vacuum; every time you choose a player you are also passing on all of the other available players. You also aren't magically adding a player to your roster, you are spending limited resources (draft picks) in order to acquire him.

 

I'd like to highlight some of the thinking that goes into my desire to pass on Richardson. It boils down to one word: value.

 

Value I: What are you "spending"?

 

4th overall

We would have to spend the fourth overall pick on Richardson. 4th overall isn't just another draft pick, it's a potentially franchise-altering pick, and it carries weight that no other pick we currently possess does.

 

Cutting a former top-10 pick isn't an easy thing for competitors like coaches and GMs to do, and former top draft choices carry that legacy throughout their careers--especially if they play well. Once Richardson's rookie contract would be up, we would be forced to sign him for a record-breaking deal and have a huge cap number invested in an aging running back. Or we could let a star player walk. Not to mention that in 2011, top tier RBs were overpaid by 50%***. Does 6 million/year sound like the kind of deal a former 4th overall pick who has performed well would sign?

 

Value is especially important at the very top of the draft because of the plethora of alternate choices available. If you consider classic coachspeak line of "its not just who you take, its who you don't take," you are not taking hundreds of other players with the 4th overall pick.

 

The cost of this pick simply cannot be understated.

 

Where can you find good players?

If you look at the rounds in which good players are chosen at a given position it can tell you a few things. Looking at Quarterback, the good ones historically are taken in the first round. The same goes with cornerback.

 

But if you look at running back, you'll see players like Frank Gore (3rd), LeSean McCoy (2nd), Ray Rice (2nd), Arian Foster (Undrafted), Matt Forte (3rd), Jamaal Charles (3rd), Ahmad Bradshaw (7th), Michael Turner (5th), and all are doing more than getting the job done.

 

This doesn't tell us that we can just draft any guy in the 3rd round and he'll magically end up being that good, but it does tell us that good running backs can be found later on. Good quarterbacks, cornerbacks, and left tackles, not so much. If you want a great player at one of those positions, you almost assuredly have to pick him in the first round.

 

 

 

Value II: What are you getting for the "money"?

 

Disparity in talent between top of the NFL and average

At any given position, NFL starters are only going to be so good and they are only going to be so bad. At some positions, the disparity is enormous; a pass rusher like DeMarcus Ware, for example, is much better than a starter like Jayme Mitchell. At other positions (like punter) there isn't a whole lot of dropoff from the top all the way to the bottom.

 

Even if you can draft the best punter in the league, so what?

 

There simply isn't a world of difference athletically between good NFL running backs. While Adrian Peterson is a great player and a probable hall of famer, how much better is he than LeSean McCoy? Ray Rice? Maurice Jones Drew? I can probably list a dozen backs who aren't quite as good as Peterson, but are able to deliver only slightly less production.

 

While there certainly are positions with less disparity in talent between the top and bottom (punter), no running back we are seeing right now is truly able to take over a game by himself. There simply aren't human beings alive today who are physically capable of being able to run over and around NFL defenses like they used to. We aren't living in an era when we'll see another Jim Brown who is that much bigger, that much faster, and able to run the ball that much better than the next guy.

 

Talent over other available

This should factor in not only other players available in the draft, but also players that typically come available in free agency and trades. For example, it is extremely rare for a franchise QB to be found anywhere at all, and once teams do find them they typically don't let them go. In recent years I can only think of Jay Cutler as a relatively young franchise QB to switch teams. Meanwhile, it seems like very good OGs and WRs hit the market every year.

 

Obviously, other players available in the draft and their relative talent levels should be considered. There appears to be a huge dropoff at the QB position after Andrew Luck and Robert Griffin III--which is exactly why the St. Louis Rams were able to get so much for the 2nd overall pick (and the last superstar QB draft prospect).

 

I just don't see so much of a dropoff between Richardson and a more easily-assembled backfield by committee to warrant the pick. He's good, but how much more than Lamar Miller, David Wilson, Isaiah Pead, or Doug Martin does he give us?

 

Length of career

While it shouldn't be the primary consideration, the potential length of a player's career should come into play when making a selection. You don't even know if the guy is going to be good yet, but you at least want an idea of a best-case scenario.

 

A quarterback can be "your guy" for 10-15 years, as can a lineman. Running backs have relatively short careers in the NFL, and even shorter periods of time when they "carry the load" and do it well.

 

Running backs have the shortest average career length in the NFL. If you see that stat being heavily influenced by training camp roster filler, I'd agree with you. But I would also point you to the rule of 370. While not a magical barrier of 370 carries, the "rule of 370" is statistical analysis that reinforces common sense: relatively small guys who get hit hard by bigger guys tend to wear down and wear out. A rough analysis also details that RBs peak (and decline) earlier in their careers than other offensive players.

 

370 carries/year is 23.125 carries/game. With a 4.5 YPC average, that's just over 100 yards per game.

 

Value III: How much is your "purchase" worth to you?

 

Current roster composition

Obviously, the more the Browns' roster lacks talent at a given position, the more "impact" a draft choice at that position would have. This is the one area that I think makes Richardson more valuable to us. We need offensive talent, and we could really use another running back.

 

Still, other positions on the team are clearly more lacking than RB. With the release of Tony Pashos, RT became a pressing need and probably the most urgent one on the entire depth chart. Yet, because of the reasons cited in the rest of this article I do not believe RT would be a wise pick at 4th overall.

 

Positional impact

How much a position impacts the game can vary widely. Quarterbacks touch the ball every play. Monster defensive tackles and other "unblockable" players can shred your entire gameplan.

 

How much impact does a running back bring to a team? I would say about an average amount. Sure, they can break big plays now and then, but unless you call 200 yards of total offense a good day no individual RB will be the engine that makes your offense go. Walter Peyton had the most all purpose yards per game of any RB in NFL history,and he only averaged 114.7 per game. Even Barry Sanders averaged under 120 total yards/game.

 

Blueprint

The Browns simply do not want to be a running team. They are comfortable with the passing game, they've hired coaches who like to pass, and the organizations who's success we'd like to model (the Green Bay Packers and the Philadelphia Eagles) both pass the ball a lot.

 

Yes, Mike Holmgren ran the ball a lot with Shaun Alexander (who is the poster boy for the rule of 370, by the way). Yes, "the" West Coast Offense can be a run-first offense. But Holmgren didn't draft Alexander with a top-5 pick, and he didn't even start him in his rookie season.

 

We want a back like Ahman Green (3rd round), LeSean McCoy (2nd), or Brian Westbrook (3rd). We don't necessarily want a back that can pound the rock between the tackles, we are looking for a back to run effectively but also to be effective in the passing game. Spending such a high pick on the downhill running of Richardson simply wouldn't be a good match. We just don't want or need a back that good at pounding the rock.

 

Putting it all together

When examining the combination of the franchise-level of importance of the 4th overall pick, the availability of other good running backs, the lack of extreme difference in talent between the top running backs in the league and other good ones, and the short length of careers for running backs, I can only determine that drafting Trent Richardson is not worth it.

 

If there are people out there who believe Richardson is an all-time talent who is just tremendously better than other prospects in this draft, I can see why they would want us to take him. But the lack of value at the fourth spot in the draft cannot be debated.

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***though I think he clings to his "kooky made-up" stats too closely, this is solid analysis by Burke. I tend to believe total yardage is actually a good measure of a back, but that debate is best saved for another time.

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This is a bunch of nonsense, by a guy named Rufio? WTF! First off VALUE- it's something you get at WalMart or the Dollar Store, not to be used when talking about game changing runningbacks... Second- is this guy really comparing a Franchise Changing Elite Running Back to drafting the best punter? Third- Trent Richardson is possibly already better than Frank Gore, LeSean McCoy, Ray Rice, Arian Foster, Matt Forte, Jamaal Charles, Ahmad Bradshaw and Michael Turner... And he's yet to step on an NFL feild. He'll be 21 years old when the season starts and Rookie deals are what 4 years? So he'll be 25 when his rookie deal needs renewing- that's hardly on the downside of his career. If he lights it up and requires a lot of money to resign then so what, that just means we did the right thing and have drafted a franchise changing runningback. What we can't do is pass on him because we only want to pay Elite money to Offensive lineman and cornerbacks- you get what you pay for.

[The Gipper]

As an Alabama fan all I can say is Trent is a great guy and a hellava football player. This would a great pick for u guys. btw, we refer to Trent on our boards as MFBATR. Figure it out.

 

My French Bidet Actually Tickles Rearend?

[Socalbamafan]

My French Bidet Actually Tickles Rearend?

 

 

Not bad

[Socalbamafan]

I hear auburns long snapper is really good, maybe u guys should do a rethink.

[Tour2ma]

This is a bunch of nonsense, by a guy named Rufio? WTF! First off VALUE- it's something you get at WalMart or the Dollar Store, not to be used when talking about game changing runningbacks... Second- is this guy really comparing a Franchise Changing Elite Running Back to drafting the best punter? Third- Trent Richardson is possibly already better than Frank Gore, LeSean McCoy, Ray Rice, Arian Foster, Matt Forte, Jamaal Charles, Ahmad Bradshaw and Michael Turner... And he's yet to step on an NFL feild. He'll be 21 years old when the season starts and Rookie deals are what 4 years? So he'll be 25 when his rookie deal needs renewing- that's hardly on the downside of his career. If he lights it up and requires a lot of money to resign then so what, that just means we did the right thing and have drafted a franchise changing runningback. What we can't do is pass on him because we only want to pay Elite money to Offensive lineman and cornerbacks- you get what you pay for.

Get your head out of your ass (or TR's) and try to understand what the other side is saying. I have no idea who Rufio is... no idea of his credentials. I was looking for anything to rebut all the crap you were citing and up he popped in a Google. But he laid out logical, rational, unemotional case against drafting TR that rang true for me. That it would tweak your beak was simply a bonus...

 

I even figured that you would fixate on the money as it is the weakest of the points made...

 

The salient point of the article is that the production gap between elite RB's and the next tier (call them what you like) is not as great as your perception of the physical talent gap.

 

The AP example Rufio sites is telling. It renders your assessment of TR's potential moot...

[Socalbamafan]

Urban owned us, really? He played us twice in Tuscaloosa and did not score a touchdown either game. And the last time tebow played us he ended up crying at the end of the game, then urban had a heart attack.

[The Gipper]

Urban owned us, really? He played us twice in Tuscaloosa and did not score a touchdown either game. And the last time tebow played us he ended up crying at the end of the game, then urban had a heart attack.

 

 

You didn't answer my earlier question....how would you like it if...or when...the Browns decide to blow things up again, they choose Saban to come to the Browns and be the coach?

 

One concern I may have if they did that is that he might go on a megalomania binge, like Butch Davis or BB....he may want total control like he has an 'Bama. We have experience here that that model does not work so well.

[PoeticG]

http://www.cleveland.com/pluto/blog/index.ssf/2012/04/cleveland_browns_shouldnt_run.html

 

Cleveland Browns shouldn't run away from taking Trent Richardson: Terry Pluto

 

Published: Thursday, April 26, 2012, 1:00 AM

 

By Terry Pluto, The Plain Dealer

 

 

 

CLEVELAND, Ohio -- The Browns absolutely, positively must draft Trent Richardson with the No. 4 pick in the NFL draft.

 

They do need a cornerback, and LSU's Mo Claiborne has a chance to be a star. But even more than adding another good player to an already solid defense, the Browns must do something dramatic to improve their desperate offense.

 

It would not be a massive mistake to select Justin Blackmon, the receiver from Oklahoma State. But when considering Blackmon (a chance to be good) vs. Richardson (a chance to be great), make a play for greatness.

 

There has to be a player whose jersey the fans can not only wear proudly on Sunday, but who brings them at least to the edge of their seats (if not on their feet) every time he touches the ball. Richardson has a chance to be that player. If you can't have a powerhouse passing attack (and the Browns won't), then why not run the ball with authority?

 

Is there a risk taking a running back so high in the draft? It's a fact that Reggie Bush (No. 2 in 2006) was the last running back selected in the top five. In 2005, Ronnie Brown, Cedric Benson and Cadillac Williams were running backs picked in the first five.

 

In 2007, Adrian Peterson was the No. 7 pick. He should have been in the top 5. The same with Maurice Jones-Drew, who was the 60th pick in 2006.

 

Richardson is that type of player, where the eye test and the stats reveal the same thing -- a back with power, with sharp cuts and patience as he waits for holes to open. He's a back who set a single Alabama season record for rushing (1,679 yards) and gained 96 yards in 20 carries in the NCAA championship game against LSU.

 

He also had 181 yards rushing against Florida, 203 against rival Auburn, and he even caught 29 passes last season.

 

You can find a running back in the later rounds, but it's doubtful that back will match everything that Richardson can bring to the Browns from the moment he steps on the field.

 

Yes, he is that gifted, that special ... and he belongs in an orange helmet.

 

 

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Tick...Tick...Tick...

[choco]

is that article supposed to somehow debunk the article tour posted? i like pluto and all....but this is akin to replying to an editorial piece with a story about firefighters saving an old ladys cat from a tree.

 

lemme see if i got this right.....

 

this guy rufio, offers up his opinion as to why TR is not worth the pick, while providing some justification for his view. according to you, this guy has no credibility and is basically an idiot.

 

you then, post a retort in the form of another opinion piece by a guy that happens to agree with you. somehow, this is valid evidence? how is whats good for the goose not good for the gander?

 

i think i can make the claim that you are worse with your player man-crushes than shep ever was....

 

 

now, when we dont draft TR, you'll likely get a free day to whine and cry. if you try to take over the board like shep used to, then we're gonna have a major fucking problem.

[hammertime]

It's been stated that this is one of the hardest drafts to screw up.

 

For a roster like the Browns its an even truer statement.

 

 

Will a playmaker be there at 4? Yes.

 

 

Whether its TR JB its a immediate improvement. We could throw darts at a draft board for our first three picks and end up with 3 starters.

[Harry Buffalo]

I'm really going to laugh my ass off if they guy we take isn't who we think. I do think if Richardson is there he is the guy or maybe even Claiborne, but if we traded back with St. Loius, Jacks, or Miami, even if one of the guys falls to us I just have that feeling that we are taking someone no one is thinking of. As in people would think we draft Floyd back at 8 or Blackmon, Claiborne, Richardson if they fall to us, but I feel like at that spot we would jump on Kuechly, Ingram, or maybe even Mercilus/Perry if we are extremely high on one of them.