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Gilbert in the first round?


Opal312

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DBs are hard to quantify with stats, for me it's an eye test.

Pray tell us how you are "eye-testing" DBs...

 

Can't be off of any TV feed, because they are only on a fraction of the time/ plays. And when they are, it's primarily for their failures.

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I'd say if he stays on pace for 800 yards and 8 TDs that's solid which would probably put him top 20 which would mean he'd be a number 1 WR. Gordon had 9 TDs last year.

 

DBs are hard to quantify with stats, for me it's an eye test.

See if you can follow me here,,,,,

 

After 3 games, Watkins is ranked as the #5 rookie receiver......#5!!!....Im not one to judge after 3 games, BUT if you're gonna do it then do it right....so the 5th best receiver was worth the #4 pick????

 

The way I see it is our GM traded the FIFTH best receiver to Buffalo for 2 first round picks.....and that basically makes him a genius and Buffalo dumb as dirt....

 

AND, if the 5th best receiver(after 3 games) who was picked first, is considered a #1(by your standards), then why would the 5 best CB who was picked first be considered a bust?

 

Your logic fails.

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1999 1 Tim Couch * QB Kentucky 2000 1 Courtney Brown * DE Penn State 2001 3 Gerard Warren DT Florida 2002 16 William Green RB Boston College [23]2003 21 Jeff Faine C Notre Dame 2004 6 Kellen Winslow II TE Miami (Florida) [24] 2005 3 Braylon Edwards WR Michigan 2006 13 Kamerion Wimbley LB Florida State [25]2007 3 Joe Thomas OT Wisconsin [26] 22 Brady Quinn QB Notre Dame [27]2008No Pick — — [27]2009 21 Alex Mack C California [28]2010 7 Joe Haden CB Florida 2011 21 Phil Taylor DT Baylor 2012 3 Trent Richardson RB Alabama 22 Brandon Weeden QB Oklahoma State 2013 6 Barkevious Mingo OLB LSU 2014 8 Justin Gilbert CB Oklahoma State 22 Johnny Manziel QB Texas A&M

 

Take your pick of busts from this list

 

Fine, I will bite. I have highlighted them. Out of 19, 9 are busts, 3 are way too early to tell.

That means, so far, only 7 have done anything decent.

And yes, that is a way, way too high of a percentage.

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In the NFL it's not a patience game with 1st rounders. Every GM in the league will tell you the same thing, 1st round is either talent or need, the guy better be on the field contributing. Week 5 I'm starting Hoyer over Manziel and Skrine over Gilbert, maybe they turnout to be guys who have a role on this team but anything short of starting DB and QB is a bust for a1st rounder.

 

Gilbert was drafted on his talent- I believe he clocked the fastest DB 40 at the combine. You can't coach that. You can however coach how to use better technique with that talent.

 

When are you going to figure out 3 stinking games is WAAAAYYYY too early to label any pick a bust? Want to call Javedon Clowney injury prone because he's already hurt?

 

Only first round CB outplaying Gilbert right now is Kyle Fuller. FYI, Dennard, who some folks wanted as our CB, is buried third string on the Bengals depth chart behind an ancient Packman Jones.So, is he a bust too?

 

And you're ignoring so far, Bitonio and West look like studs. Isn't a GM in the NFL that occasionally whiffs on a first round pick, it's as much what you do in the later rounds as the first. The Steelers Super Bowl run in the 70s was in large part due to they pulled FOUR Hall of Fame rabbits out of the hat in ONE draft.

 

If drafting was an exact science, you'd never see guys like Jamarcus Russell and Vernon Gholston getting drafted in the first round.

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Fine, I will bite. I have highlighted them. Out of 19, 9 are busts, 3 are way too early to tell.

That means, so far, only 7 have done anything decent.

And yes, that is a way, way too high of a percentage.

I'd dispute Winslow being a "bust". He was a head case, but a physically gifted TE that had issues with staying healthy... including a freakish, on-side kick, broken leg.

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I'd dispute Winslow being a "bust". He was a head case, but a physically gifted TE that had issues with staying healthy... including a freakish, on-side kick, broken leg.

Well, I included guys who could not stay healthy as busts.....literally! Courtney Brown couldn't stay healthy so he too is a bust.

 

I mean Sam Bowie and Greg Oden can be considered busts in basketball because of health.

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Even with the injuries, Winslow still put together six solid seasons, which is more than you can say for Tim Couch, who you did not highlight. Winslow had a better career than Couch.

 

Zombo

Winslow had a 9 year career. Pro football reference gives him a career production average of 36.

 

Tim Couch had a 5 year career. Pro football reference gave him a career production average of 30.

 

In per year terms, Winslow averaged a 4 in CPA, Couch a 6.

 

If Winslow had a better career, it is only because it was longer.

 

I know of no other way to compare them. Suffice it to say that in their careers they both underachieved relative to their draft position.

 

The other thing I can do is to compare his Browns career to that of other Browns players. In that regard, he scored a 20 as a Brown (His other points were earned elsewhere). With that score he is in the distinguished company of Henry Bradley, Robert Griffith{no, not that Robert Griffith), Marshall Harris, Alvin McKinley, Greg Rakocsy, Ross Verba and Larry Williams.

 

Other Browns TEs: Ozzie scored 77, Milt Morin 56, Johnny Brewer 37, Eric Heiden 13 (for Ghoolie), Ben Watson 13, Jordan Cameron 8, Harry Holt 8, Brian Kinchen 7, Aaron Shea 6, Ralph Smith 6.

 

Overall TE has not been a position of great strength historically for the Browns, fair to say?

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If Winslow had a better career, it is only because it was longer.

 

 

 

Well, that's a damn good reason.

 

Like I said, he was productive over six consecutive seasons. And made a Pro Bowl.

 

Tim Couch wasn't able to accomplish those things.

 

Zombo

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The Soldja sucked. Also I heard he bought a bait store and is now the master baiter.

 

Yeah, he opened it here in Bonita Springs:

 

bizarre-signs-master-bait-and-tackle-sig

 

My point is not so much that Winslow had a great career, he didn't, but Couch had a worse one.

 

Zombo

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Well, that's a damn good reason.

 

Like I said, he was productive over six consecutive seasons. And made a Pro Bowl.

 

Tim Couch wasn't able to accomplish those things.

 

Zombo

Couch as QB/leader of the offense took the franchise from being a concept on paper to a playoff appearance.

 

I don't know about you, but I will take playoff appearances over Pro Bowl appearances.

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Yeah, he opened it here in Bonita Springs:

 

bizarre-signs-master-bait-and-tackle-sig

 

My point is not so much that Winslow had a great career, he didn't, but Couch had a worse one.

 

Zombo

Sure, a combination of torn labrum and torn rotator cuff curtailed his career. And those were not self inflicted by stupid behavior, a la K2.

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Im one of those folks who always kind of felt bad for Couch.......always thought he just got his ass pounded into the dirt and didnt stand a chance with the team we had........maybe could have been pretty good on a better team......but, we will never know....

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I don't know about you, but I will take playoff appearances over Pro Bowl appearances.

Impact on team reaching post season...

QB or TE... TE or QB... QB or TE...

 

I just can't decide...

 

Im one of those folks who always kind of felt bad for Couch.......always thought he just got his ass pounded into the dirt and didnt stand a chance with the team we had........maybe could have been pretty good on a better team......but, we will never know....

A lot of us felt the same way, Mud.

 

Only bigger question (or suffering) of any QB I have followed was David Carr.

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Pray tell us how you are "eye-testing" DBs...

 

Can't be off of any TV feed, because they are only on a fraction of the time/ plays. And when they are, it's primarily for their failures.

A pass is completed and you watch the coverage. Typically if it's significant they replay it. Add to that he's lined up improperly. His coach has mentioned his failures.

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A pass is completed and you watch the coverage. Typically if it's significant they replay it. Add to that he's lined up improperly. His coach has mentioned his failures.

And the coverage when the ball is not thrown to his assigned man or area?

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Gilbert was drafted on his talent- I believe he clocked the fastest DB 40 at the combine. You can't coach that. You can however coach how to use better technique with that talent.

 

When are you going to figure out 3 stinking games is WAAAAYYYY too early to label any pick a bust? Want to call Javedon Clowney injury prone because he's already hurt?

 

Only first round CB outplaying Gilbert right now is Kyle Fuller. FYI, Dennard, who some folks wanted as our CB, is buried third string on the Bengals depth chart behind an ancient Packman Jones.So, is he a bust too?

 

And you're ignoring so far, Bitonio and West look like studs. Isn't a GM in the NFL that occasionally whiffs on a first round pick, it's as much what you do in the later rounds as the first. The Steelers Super Bowl run in the 70s was in large part due to they pulled FOUR Hall of Fame rabbits out of the hat in ONE draft.

 

If drafting was an exact science, you'd never see guys like Jamarcus Russell and Vernon Gholston getting drafted in the first round.

 

Isn't that what sports fans do? Pro sports is a constant evaluation by fans and media alike. That's why we are on an internet forum talking about a team on a bye week.

 

For better or worse there seem to be two types of Browns fans, half-empty and half-full. Don't need a crystal ball to tell where I fall but the thing that strikes me as funny as this organization as a whole has been pathetic for the vast majority of 15 years and there still is a lot of blind faith.

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And the coverage when the ball is not thrown to his assigned man or area?

That is the coaches tape but when Gilbert was getting beaten up by the media Pettine didn't say, "wait guys let's be fair Gilbert is solid you're just nitpicking". Pettine said, and I'm paraphrasing, "the guys in the room are getting on him, it's not often rookie DBs play well". Forgetting Haden, Peterson, Flowers to name a couple recents.

 

And other top 10 picks Champ Bailey, Charles Woodson.

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and you're a dick.

 

if couch would have had even a zintilla of an offensive line who knows how good he could of been. talk about bad drafting around a player.

 

Not saying he is a horrible person or that he was put in a good situation but you draft a QB #1 and he ends up with Tim Couch's resume he's a bust.

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Tim Couch got the Browns to the playoffs, with the team that was around him I consider that a victory.

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Isn't that what sports fans do? Pro sports is a constant evaluation by fans and media alike. That's why we are on an internet forum talking about a team on a bye week.

 

For better or worse there seem to be two types of Browns fans, half-empty and half-full. Don't need a crystal ball to tell where I fall but the thing that strikes me as funny as this organization as a whole has been pathetic for the vast majority of 15 years and there still is a lot of blind faith.

 

As to blind faith- well, we're Browns fans, and unlike Cubs fans, there's still some of us alive who can remember that last time the Browns won a Championship. Like Eyore, "woe is us, we're never going to be any good." I happen to disagree.

 

MHO- It's beyond totally absurd to start calling guys 'BUSTS" after three games. Under performing compared to draft status? OK, but not every first round pick comes right in and proceeds to set the league on fire. Since I had some time to think about it- I looked up these "BUSTS" for you. First year QBRs 56, 55, 30. You going to cut them all? Respectively- those are the ratings for Troy Aikman, John Elway, and Terry Bradshaw.

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That is the coaches tape but when Gilbert was getting beaten up by the media Pettine didn't say, "wait guys let's be fair Gilbert is solid you're just nitpicking". Pettine said, and I'm paraphrasing, "the guys in the room are getting on him, it's not often rookie DBs play well".

Ah... so it's "your eye test... plus stuff you read... even if the stuff read does not support the eye test in its entirety".

 

Got it... thanks...

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Not saying he is a horrible person or that he was put in a good situation but you draft a QB #1 and he ends up with Tim Couch's resume he's a bust.

Players do get hurt and can be put into impossible situations(like couch or C. Brown) and can ultimately be considered busts.....Ill agree to that.......and I can consider Couch a bust, because he was never great.....I just can't say he was the wrong pick. I think it's more obvious that we were the wrong team.

 

But a "bust" is not necessarily the fault of the GM or where a player got picked. Nor does it mean they were bad picks or bad players. No one can predict when an injury will happen and it certainly isnt the GM's fault when it does.....and when your team completely sucks, it's hard to look good, even if you are good......

 

Maybe if the Browns picked McNabb, we would be discussing how terrible(and fragile) he was and why didnt we picked Couch????......you never know.....

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Being in Cleveland really did ruin his career.

Yeah... and it was not just a '99 effort, but a continuous one.

 

We did not draft a single O-lineman in '99, '00 or '01.

 

In '02 we spent a 7th round pick on OT, Joaquin Gonzalez, to celebrate the beginning of the end of the Couch era...

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