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Which Qb Goes Where?


Tim Couch Pulls Out

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Many, many people have said that these two guys are 2d rounders. You just want to argue with their analysis because of your love affair.

It is not that I want to get into a picayune argument over these guys merits.

 

Lance Zierlein (your second article) coins Goff as an early 1st round selection

 

http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap3000000613047/article/zierlein-is-qb-jared-goff-ready-for-what-awaits-him-in-nfl

 

Mel Kiper (who your first and third article is referencing) mocks Goff as the #2 overall pick.

http://espn.go.com/nfl/insider/story/_/id/14551791/mel-kiper-releases-first-mock-draft-2016-nfl

 

There are not "many, many" people saying that these guys are 2nd rounders. Wentz is also rapidly rising in the mix as a first round worthy QB.

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Both Paxton Lynch (6.71) and Jared Goff (6.73) so far have higher draft profile grades than any QB taken in the last two years - including Winston (6.7), Mariota (6.27) and Bortles (6.22). Wentz (6.13) has the almost the same grade as Bridgewater (6.15), Carr (6.14) and Manziel (6.12). These grades aren't given on a curve compared to the rest of this year's crop, it's a 10 point scale that the NFL has used for the past two-three years.

 

Whatever "honest pundits" you've been reading are far from correct. I'd love to see examples of this "honest" evaluation.

 

Bill Polian comes immediately to mind. Do you think he has any talent evaluation skills? There are a number of others....but off the top of my head I don't have their names.

 

Wentz won't make it past #22. All three of these QB's will be gone before the first round is over. Houston, Cleveland, and Philadelphia will all take a QB this year.

 

Your Weeden, Quinn, Ponder, Gabbert comparisons aren't even close to being apt, I'm not sure where you pulled those names from. Not one single QB in this draft compares favorably to any of those players.

Those guys were all 1st round draft picks.....do you not recall that? And they were all massively overevaluated....do you recall that?

 

I hope you are all right.....that if the Browns take Goff that he is the next coming of Aaron Rodgers (fellow Cal grad who we should have taken back when). But....until I see them perform in the NFL.....I still think they may be the Ponders/Gabberts of this world.

 

 

 

Polian was a great evaluator in his day, but his claims to fame as a QB evaluator are Jim Kelly and Peyton Manning. Manning/Leaf was 50/50 - Jim Kelly was the best QB on the board when they picked at 14...not exactly like he discovered hidden great talent.

 

Bill Polian has made his buck recently on saying "I wish we took this guy when we did". He said they had a first round grade on Tom Brady...but didn't take him? He said he had a first round grade on Andy Dalton...but didn't take him? I respect him and his accomplishments, but Bill Polian today is not Bill Polian the talent evaluator. He's Bill Polian the hindsight master.

 

I've also searched and yet to find any mention of Polian calling Goff a second round talent. And since you weren't able to provide anyone else, I'm just gonna chalk that up to exaggeration.

 

 

And no, I don't recall Weeden, Ponder, Gabbert or Quinn being overvalued whatsoever. I remember them having second round or later grades, and teams taking them well ahead of where they were predicted to go. I think your memory is starting to slip.

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Many, many people have said that these two guys are 2d rounders. You just want to argue with their analysis because of your love affair.

It is not that I want to get into a picayune argument over these guys merits.

 

But, the point is: enough people have questioned the quality of these guys such that there are indeed questions about them. Many of the top rated QBs of the past did NOT have this many people questioning them.

Ergo, it is a fact: These guys ARE questionable.

Someone may be right.....someone may be wrong. There were guys taken very high that were not questionable....yet they were busts. See Jamarcus Russell. Some may have been questionable first round picks that did great: See Aaron Rodgers. Went #24....not one team would have passed on him knowing now what we know about him.

 

But if you think that there is a SURE Thing with either of these guys....you are just licking your cum mustache.

If the Browns take one of them, I certainly hope you turn out correct and that we have the next Aaron Rodgers.

 

 

Nobody has. You have yet to provide an article that claims any one of these guys is a second round prospect.

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The latest mock on the NFL channel I've seen... "JT's ?" ...

 

has the Browns picking Goff, and Wentz to Dallas a few picks later.

 

Lynch is a project, more than he has been said to be in come circles.

 

Wentz has the cannon arm, and if he can show he isn't all that far behind

Goff in the reading defenses/quicker decisions category...

 

It could be Wentz. Goff is more polished, and still a strong arm, but some scouts

have said he needs to show he has the arm and durability for the pros.

 

Going to be a fascinating draft with Hue as HC. I hope Mr. Flugels makes it up to Ohio

for it....

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Many, many people have said that these two guys are 2d rounders. You just want to argue with their analysis because of your love affair.

It is not that I want to get into a picayune argument over these guys merits.

 

I will patiently wait as well for the "many, many" people who have said this. Saying a guy isn't elite talent and saying he's a 2nd round pick are two way different thing. Another classic example I'm sure of "this is what I think and others should to" opinion on the Browns Board.

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Ughh, I'm colour (sorry i'm from the UK :)) blind and I can't see any difference between the definitely needs and doesn't need options!

Bingo... looks to us like either 90% of the league definitely need a QB or 90% definitely does not...

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Ughh, I'm colour (sorry i'm from the UK :)) blind and I can't see any difference between the definitely needs and doesn't need options!

 

Oh crap. My bad.

 

Bingo... looks to us like either 90% of the league definitely need a QB or 90% definitely does not...

 

 

Key:

Definitely needs a QB

Maybe could take a QB in draft or FA, but doesn't necessarily NEED one

Doesn't need a QB

 

1.Tennessee Titans

2. Cleveland Browns

3. San Diego Chargers

4. Dallas Cowboys

5. Jacksonville Jaguars

6. Baltimore Ravens

7. San Francisco 49ers

8. Miami Dolphins

9. Tampa Bay Buccaneers

10. New York Giants

11. Chicago Bears

12. New Orleans Saints

13. Philadelphia Eagles

14. Oakland Raiders

15. LA Rams

16. Detroit Lions

17. Atlanta Falcons

18. Indianapolis Colts

19. Buffalo Bills

20. New York Jets

21. Washington Redskins

22. Houston Texans

23. Minnesota Vikings

24. Cincinnati Bengals

25. Green Bay Packers

26. Pittsburgh Steelers

27. Seattle Seahawks

28. Kansas City Chiefs

29. Denver Broncos

30. Arizona Cardinals

31. Carolina Panthers

 

 

I would also venture to add that I didn't include teams like Buffalo, San Fran, Miami or Washington as teams that need QB's because of varying reasons mostly having to do with young talent performing well and coaching changes that point to maintaining the status quo at QB.

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The first fallacy of this entire thread is the statement: "There are three potential franchise QBs that may be available in this draft".

 

Most honest pundits say that the best of these QBs is second round talent...

Now we're down to "honest" pundits... Pretty sure we know how honest is defined here...

 

Still waiting on links to any three pundits... honest or not...

 

I think he will. He'll interview well, he'll probably be near perfect in his combine throwing, he'll have an average 40 time.

 

Ryan Tannehill is Miami right now, for some reason. Despite his garbage performances, they keep him. He's on his third head coach and third GM, yet he's still there.

What is average for QBs? Goff should clock around 4.8... actually looks a little faster on tape to my eye.

 

Tannehill has shown flashes of getting it. Just enough to keep the Fins interested. Whether or not he is ultimately shown to be full-blown Fools' Gold is still TBD. Such is the issue when you reach so far for a promising QB with a thin resume.

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Lance Zierlein (your second article) coins Goff as an early 1st round selection

 

http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap3000000613047/article/zierlein-is-qb-jared-goff-ready-for-what-awaits-him-in-nfl

 

Mel Kiper (who your first and third article is referencing) mocks Goff as the #2 overall pick.

http://espn.go.com/nfl/insider/story/_/id/14551791/mel-kiper-releases-first-mock-draft-2016-nfl

 

There are not "many, many" people saying that these guys are 2nd rounders. Wentz is also rapidly rising in the mix as a first round worthy QB.

And when these guys turn out to be shit, like Ponder and Gabbert...which is what I see them as.....you will need to stick your head somewhere the sun don't shine.

These QBs are being overvalued because they are QBs .....plain and simple.

You know in your heart that is true....its just that you don't want it to be true because you are desperate for a franchise QB.

Again....I hope if the Browns take one you turn out to be right.

I will wager you a hot fudge sundae on the outcome.

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I will patiently wait as well for the "many, many" people who have said this. Saying a guy isn't elite talent and saying he's a 2nd round pick are two way different thing. Another classic example I'm sure of "this is what I think and others should to" opinion on the Browns Board.

These guys have been elevated in their prospect rankings since they declared. Prior to that, they weren't thought of as well.

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Now we're down to "honest" pundits... Pretty sure we know how honest is defined here...

 

Still waiting on links to any three pundits... honest or not...

 

Larry, Curly and Moe....there are your three pundits.

All I can say is that the guys that were on ESPN basically said this......and have since changed their minds, apparently.

 

What is average for QBs? Goff should clock around 4.8... actually looks a little faster on tape to my eye.

 

Tannehill has shown flashes of getting it. Just enough to keep the Fins interested. Whether or not he is ultimately shown to be full-blown Fools' Gold is still TBD. Such is the issue when you reach so far for a promising QB with a thin resume.

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And when these guys turn out to be shit, like Ponder and Gabbert...which is what I see them as.....you will need to stick your head somewhere the sun don't shine.

Well I'm really only considering Goff as a sure thing at this point. Wentz/Lynch have some more questions surrounding them.

 

These QBs are being overvalued because they are QBs .....plain and simple.

Goff is valued higher than everybody who has come out since Luck by NFL.com anyway (I said it first, NFL.com just copied my opinion)

 

You know in your heart that is true....its just that you don't want it to be true because you are desperate for a franchise QB.

Nope - I've never been desperate. The desperation moves were drafting Manziel, Weeden, and Quinn. All 3 of which I was opposed to - which means I'm right 100% of the time (obviously).

 

We also haven't taken a QB in the top 20 since 1999, interesting note.

 

Again....I hope if the Browns take one you turn out to be right.

I will wager you a hot fudge sundae on the outcome.

 

I'm not really crazy about chocolate...or ice cream. But I'll get a pink Goff jersey and wear it to a game if I'm wrong. When I'm not wrong, a 6 pack would suffice ;)

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From your first link:

"Now let’s switch over to Mr. Jared Goff. We can start with Todd McShay’s and Mel Kiper’s projection for him since we just talked about them with Paxton’s overall rating. Well, Goff is rated even LOWER than Paxton Lynch on both analysts’ draft boards. Goff is rated as the tenth best player on Kiper’s board while he is all the way down at fifteenth on McShay’s. "

 

From Link #2 which is an article about Lynch, not Goff:

"Lynch appears to lack some of the polish I'm seeing with Goff, for example, but draft decisions aren't made based on how a player is performing right now. They are made based on the long-term projection of ceiling vs. floor."

 

In Link #3 at its core McShay really argues that both Goff and Lynch would benefit from another year of development. I agree... and Goff can do that in Berea behind McCown until he is ready. Kiper on the other hand says no such thing.

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Nope - I've never been desperate. The desperation moves were drafting Manziel, Weeden, and Quinn. All 3 of which I was opposed to - which means I'm right 100% of the time (obviously).

lol... Did you mutter, "Oh, no...," all three times when the fact that we had traded up was announced?

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And when these guys turn out to be shit, like Ponder and Gabbert...which is what I see them as.....you will need to stick your head somewhere the sun don't shine.

Well I'm really only considering Goff as a sure thing at this point. Wentz/Lynch have some more questions surrounding them.

 

Ponder/Gabbert

 

These QBs are being overvalued because they are QBs .....plain and simple.

Goff is valued higher than everybody who has come out since Luck by NFL.com anyway (I said it first, NFL.com just copied my opinion)

So? Jamarcus was rated practically as high.

 

You know in your heart that is true....its just that you don't want it to be true because you are desperate for a franchise QB.

Nope - I've never been desperate. The desperation moves were drafting Manziel, Weeden, and Quinn. All 3 of which I was opposed to - which means I'm right 100% of the time (obviously).

 

We also haven't taken a QB in the top 20 since 1999, interesting note.

 

Does that mean we should now take a guy in the top 20? Again...desperation.

 

Again....I hope if the Browns take one you turn out to be right.

I will wager you a hot fudge sundae on the outcome.

 

I'm not really crazy about chocolate...or ice cream. But I'll get a pink Goff jersey and wear it to a game if I'm wrong. When I'm not wrong, a 6 pack would suffice ;)

You want to change the bet? When you lose, you have to wear a pair of pink hot pants to a game. I would allow that to be in September so you don't freeze your pink tushy off.

 

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lol... Did you mutter, "Oh, no...," all three times when the fact that we had traded up was announced?

 

Pretty much.

 

Quinn I never liked when he was at ND and thought we gave up way too much to move up.

 

Weeden I mean, who the hell is that old man getting drafted in the first round. This hurts especially because we had the opportunity to get the likes of JJ Watt, Von Miller, Julio Jones, and Patrick Pederson but instead we traded for F***ing Phil Taylor, Greg Little, and Brandon Weeden

 

And Manziel I never saw any NFL potential. Aside from not wanting the attention, he's a midget with a ton of problems (not surprisingly, he continued to see phantoms in the pocket, never step up in the pocket, and suck balls in the pocket in general at the NFL level. Not to mention the fact he never read the entire field in college and was surrounded with NFL caliber talent at A&M)

 

Of the 3, I had the highest hopes for Quinn - but they weren't that high.

 

I don't recall being high on any of the QBs in 2007. Ryan was my favorite in 2008 (and everybody's favorite), didn't really care about anybody in 09, 10' - I was fine with McCoy because it was only a 3rd rounder.

 

Basically I'm always right, and we need to get Goff to end the debacle once and for all.

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Now we're down to "honest" pundits... Pretty sure we know how honest is defined here...

 

Still waiting on links to any three pundits... honest or not...

 

 

What is average for QBs? Goff should clock around 4.8... actually looks a little faster on tape to my eye.

 

Tannehill has shown flashes of getting it. Just enough to keep the Fins interested. Whether or not he is ultimately shown to be full-blown Fools' Gold is still TBD. Such is the issue when you reach so far for a promising QB with a thin resume.

 

I'd clock Goff around mid 4.7's at his best.

 

Some 40 yard times to keep in mind:

 

Aaron Rodgers - 4.71

Johnny Manziel - 4.68

Andrew Luck - 4.65

Cam Newton - 4.58

Marcus Mariota - 4.52

 

 

If I had to guess, I'd throw the Big 3 this year in here like this:

 

 

Paxton Lynch - 4. 81

Carson Wentz - 4.75

Jared Goff- 4.74

Aaron Rodgers - 4.71

Johnny Manziel - 4.68

Andrew Luck - 4.65

Cam Newton - 4.58

Marcus Mariota - 4.52

 

 

But I would say that, of the three, Lynch is probably the biggest threat with his legs - he has a Cam Newton-esque elusiveness and stride, coupled with his long frame.

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Here ya go argumentative one- every freaking mock draft out there. http://walterfootball.com/draftdata.php

 

Kiper is a ESPN talking head that's right around 50% of the time. He's changed his tune in the last couple months. http://espn.go.com/video/clip?id=espn:14569169

 

FWIW, If guys like Polian or Kiper were so great at evaluating talent, they'd be working in an NFL scouting department.

 

It's early- the draft is still months away, and some of the stuff you posted is contrarian garbage, just to get hits.

 

I think Polian is pretty good and could probably still be working in the NFL, but to call him some QB guru is completely misleading. Many of his drafts were butt, but he drafted Peyton Manning and Jim Kelly - not hard decisions by any means, but still good ones regardless.

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Here ya go argumentative one- every freaking mock draft out there. http://walterfootbal...m/draftdata.php

 

Kiper is a ESPN talking head that's right around 50% of the time. He's changed his tune in the last couple months. http://espn.go.com/v...d=espn:14569169

 

FWIW, If guys like Polian or Kiper were so great at evaluating talent, they'd be working in an NFL scouting department.

 

It's early- the draft is still months away, and some of the stuff you posted is contrarian garbage, just to get hits. Prospects, especially top prospects get picked apart pre-draft.

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From your first link:

"Now let’s switch over to Mr. Jared Goff. We can start with Todd McShay’s and Mel Kiper’s projection for him since we just talked about them with Paxton’s overall rating. Well, Goff is rated even LOWER than Paxton Lynch on both analysts’ draft boards. Goff is rated as the tenth best player on Kiper’s board while he is all the way down at fifteenth on McShay’s. "

 

From Link #2 which is an article about Lynch, not Goff:

"Lynch appears to lack some of the polish I'm seeing with Goff, for example, but draft decisions aren't made based on how a player is performing right now. They are made based on the long-term projection of ceiling vs. floor."

 

In Link #3 at its core McShay really argues that both Goff and Lynch would benefit from another year of development. I agree... and Goff can do that in Berea behind McCown until he is ready. Kiper on the other hand says no such thing.

 

If we do end up taking Goff #2, he sure as hell won't sit a year. If you are drafted #2 overall, you play....period.

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Here ya go argumentative one- every freaking mock draft out there. http://walterfootbal...m/draftdata.php

 

Kiper is a ESPN talking head that's right around 50% of the time. He's changed his tune in the last couple months. http://espn.go.com/v...d=espn:14569169

 

FWIW, If guys like Polian or Kiper were so great at evaluating talent, they'd be working in an NFL scouting department.

 

It's early- the draft is still months away, and some of the stuff you posted is contrarian garbage, just to get hits. Prospects, especially top prospects get picked apart pre-draft.

 

 

Eh, it's not perfect, but it will do. These are mostly just random Joe Blow mocks, not any real mocks affiliated with any of the big analysts. But it at least shows a trend.

 

There are 120 mocks listed on that website. 59 from 2015, 61 from 2016 so far. Goff is listed 60 times in that entire list - with 40 of those listings in mocks done this year. That means 40 of 61 mocks in 2016 have Goff as a top-five pick. Further, of the 21 mocks that don't have Goff in the top-five, 14 of them have Paxton Lynch instead.

 

That means there are only seven mock drafts of 2016 so far that don't have a top-five QB at all. Only 11% of mock drafts since the end of the college football regular season don't have a top-five QB.

 

Forgive me, but it's hard to believe that a majority of analysts figure these guys to be second-round prospects when an overwhelming majority of mock drafts are saying the opposite.

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Here ya go argumentative one- every freaking mock draft out there. http://walterfootbal...m/draftdata.php

 

Kiper is a ESPN talking head that's right around 50% of the time. He's changed his tune in the last couple months. http://espn.go.com/v...d=espn:14569169

 

FWIW, If guys like Polian or Kiper were so great at evaluating talent, they'd be working in an NFL scouting department.

 

It's early- the draft is still months away, and some of the stuff you posted is contrarian garbage, just to get hits. Prospects, especially top prospects get picked apart pre-draft.

The point is, the first impressions of these guys were: "average". Now that it is draft time the QBs are getting ranked higher.

I mean, Brandon Weeden was ranked a 2=3....but he became a 1st rounder. Happens all the time.

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Eh, it's not perfect, but it will do. These are mostly just random Joe Blow mocks, not any real mocks affiliated with any of the big analysts. But it at least shows a trend.

 

There are 120 mocks listed on that website. 59 from 2015, 61 from 2016 so far. Goff is listed 60 times in that entire list - with 40 of those listings in mocks done this year. That means 40 of 61 mocks in 2016 have Goff as a top-five pick. Further, of the 21 mocks that don't have Goff in the top-five, 14 of them have Paxton Lynch instead.

 

That means there are only seven mock drafts of 2016 so far that don't have a top-five QB at all. Only 11% of mock drafts since the end of the college football regular season don't have a top-five QB.

 

Forgive me, but it's hard to believe that a majority of analysts figure these guys to be second-round prospects when an overwhelming majority of mock drafts are saying the opposite.

You also have to realize this about those mocks: They are NOT listing who they think the best potential prospects are....they are listing what they think each team should or would do:

They see the Browns as needing a QB. Sure, OK.....so they mock the Browns into taking a QB out of need.

They are NOT saying that Goff is the second best talent available in this draft....they are saying this is what they think the Browns should do......even if these QBs are Christian Ponder quality talent.

 

Hue Jackson said it right: If there is a guy that is quality enough to take at #2, then we might take him.....But if he is not good enough, then we have to pass.

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You also have to realize this about those mocks: They are NOT listing who they think the best potential prospects are....they are listing what they think each team should or would do:

They see the Browns as needing a QB. Sure, OK.....so they mock the Browns into taking a QB out of need.

They are NOT saying that Goff is the second best talent available in this draft....they are saying this is what they think the Browns should do......even if these QBs are Christian Ponder quality talent.

 

Hue Jackson said it right: If there is a guy that is quality enough to take at #2, then we might take him.....But if he is not good enough, then we have to pass.

 

 

See, that's funny...because I seem to recall Hue Jackson saying this:

 

"If there is a QB at #2 that is a best fit for our team, we need to go get him. It's my opinion we need a QB."

 

Misremembering information on accident is one thing, but changing quotes? C'mon Gip.

 

http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap3000000624126/article/hue-jackson-browns-need-to-go-get-qb-with-no-2-pick-in-draft

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If we do end up taking Goff #2, he sure as hell won't sit a year. If you are drafted #2 overall, you play....period.

It all depends. I think he's the closest to NFL ready, but it's really a long term investment and whatever would be best is debatable. He'd definitely get a fair shake at the starting role in camp.

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See, that's funny...because I seem to recall Hue Jackson saying this:

 

"If there is a QB at #2 that is a best fit for our team, we need to go get him. It's my opinion we need a QB."

 

Misremembering information on accident is one thing, but changing quotes? C'mon Gip.

 

http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap3000000624126/article/hue-jackson-browns-need-to-go-get-qb-with-no-2-pick-in-draft

See that is funny.....no where does he say that he will reach for a QB that isn't talented enough. He has given a dozen interviews, and the one I heard on WKNR.....he said essentially "yes, if a QB is good enough to take at #2 we will take him....but if not we won't.

 

Here is the exact quote:

If there’s a QB at pick No. 2 or pick No. 32 that we feel is the best option, the best fit for our team, we need to go get him,” Jackson said Sunday. “I’m sitting here today because John Harbaugh gave me an opportunity to draft and develop Joe Flacco.”

California’s Jared Goff, Memphis’ Paxton Lynch, Michigan State’s Connor Cook and North Dakota State’s Carson Wentz are among the top quarterback options. Jackson said he’ll spend a lot of time evaluating the quarterback class but won’t force the issue at the top of the draft if the player isn’t worthy.

“If he’s good enough, I am not against it,” Jackson said on WKNR 850-AM. “But if he’s not, then obviously we don’t want to take one just to take one

http://chronicle.northcoastnow.com/2016/01/17/284520/

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And, since we're on the subject:

 

Daniel Jeremiah, NFL.com - 1/19/16

 

Wentz - 7th best prospect

Goff - 8th best prospect

Lynch - 21st best prospect

 

http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap3000000624732/article/ranking-top-50-prospects-for-2016-nfl-draft

 

Lance Zierlien, NFL.com - 1/19/2016

 

Goff - 8th best prospect

Lynch - 15th best prospect

Wentz - 30th best prospect

 

http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap3000000625061/article/top-100-prospects-for-2016-nfl-draft

 

CBSSports.com - 1/15/2016

 

Goff - 5th best prospect

Lynch - 12th best prospect

Wentz - 18th best prospect

 

http://www.cbssports.com/nfl/draft/prospectrankings/2016/all

 

Rob Rang, CBSSports - 1/13/2016

 

Goff - 6th best prospect

Paxton Lynch - 30th best prospect

 

http://www.cbssports.com/nfl/draft/big-board

 

Mel Kiper, ESPN - 12/26/15

 

Lynch - 7th best prospect

Goff - 10th best prospect

 

http://www.chatsports.com/nfl/a/top-10-players-mel-kipers-2016-nfl-draft-big-board-25259

 

DraftTek - 1/17/2016

 

Lynch - 1st best prospect

Goff - 8th best prospect

Wentz - 44th best prospect

 

http://www.drafttek.com/Top-100-NFL-Draft-Prospects-2016.asp

 

 

NFLDraftGeek.com - 1/17/2016

 

Goff - 1st best prospect

Lynch - 19th best prospect

Wentz - 50th best prospect

 

(As an aside, they have Cardale Jones ahead of Wentz...so.....)

 

http://nfldraftgeek.com/2016nfldraftrankings.html

 

 

This took two minutes of searching. At the VERY best, you can say that MAYBE Wentz is getting second round consideration from some smaller publications.

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