Analytics say........ GOFF over Wentz

[Tim Couch Pulls Out]

Take a midol and come back when you are being rational.

 

I hope you realize that every other team in the league uses analytics. The Browns are just now getting around to it. You act as if that is all they are going to use and none of the scouts or coaches will have input.

Idiots fear what they can't comprehend.

[Westside Steve]

Idiots fear what they can't comprehend.

Or conversely jump right on the bandwagon.

WSS

[Unsympathetic]

"Analytics" is not a single entity with one idea. That's very much like saying All Liberals Think (xyz) in politics.

 

[Pro tip: Every time you see someone say All Liberals Think, whatever follows in the XYZ is guaranteed to be 100% pure bullshit. Deal with it.]

 

 

The OP of this thread is NOT posting the collected gathered wisdom of all QB analysts who each have their own opinion on the Goff/Wentz discussion... rather, one ESPN analysis was posted. Thus, the title of the thread was incorrect. Instead of "Analytics says", a correct title would be "One analysis says"

 

 

"Analytics" does not say anything on "its" own. Any analytics deliverable is the product of the analysts who create it.. thus, analytics is by its very nature quite nuanced. A leader then USES those analytics to support their conclusion.

 

Hue Jackson has commented many times on the importance the Browns place on his input and loves him some analytics.

 

 

"Analytics is just a part of it. It’s not the whole thing, but it’s a piece of it. Eventually, everybody’s going to be doing what we’re doing."

[The Gipper]

Paul and Brown could work as a gm combo if they have a stat sheet for a prospect's overall love of the game. Every gm has used anal licking from day 1. I wonder what the "new" slant this duo brings to studying stat sheets? I do take a little hope in the name combo. Good omen

I saw that.

 

And even Paul Brown wasn't infallible. He drafted Bobby Garrett.....#1 overall....but who could not call plays because of stuttering.

And he traded away or let go of Len Dawson, Doug Atkins, Willie Davis, Henry Jordan, Dick LeBeau....all future HOF with other teams.

[hoorta]

Jimmy Donovan reported tonight that as we approach draft day, the Tits are getting phone calls from some teams that want to trade up to #1. The two teams that were mentioned was San Fran and Philly. I'm not surprised by the niners, but didn't the Eagles just sign Bradford?

 

The Iggles are counting on Bradford as much as we're counting on RG III. Continuing with the Draft value chart, for the Niners or Eagles to jump us- It's this years first & second + next year's first- minimum. There's always the first overall pick and Quarterback premium to consider. The question is would the Titans want to move down that far and how much they value top guys that fill positions of need. Adios Tunsil, Ramsey, & Bosa.

 

BTW, assuming we do get jumped and have both QBs rated equally- we just take the one they don't. The Browns do have the Ace in the Hole card. If they really want either Wentz or Goff, the Browns cost to move up one slot is the #32 pick. Browns get the guy they want, and the Titans can wheel & deal from #2, or take Tunsil. (I don't think Cleveland would do it, as the first pick on day two is really valuable) I really could see the Browns trading down out of #32.

[The Gipper]

 

The Iggles are counting on Bradford as much as we're counting on RG III. Continuing with the Draft value chart, for the Niners or Eagles to jump us- It's this years first & second + next year's first- minimum. There's always the first overall pick and Quarterback premium to consider. The question is would the Titans want to move down that far and how much they value top guys that fill positions of need. Adios Tunsil, Ramsey, & Bosa.

 

BTW, assuming we do get jumped and have both QBs rated equally- we just take the one they don't. The Browns do have the Ace in the Hole card. If they really want either Wentz or Goff, the Browns cost to move up one slot is the #32 pick. Browns get the guy they want, and the Titans can wheel & deal from #2, or take Tunsil. (I don't think Cleveland would do it, as the first pick on day two is really valuable) I really could see the Browns trading down out of #32.

I would not like to see that. That #32 spot I view as almost another first round pick (which it would be but for the NE forfeiture of their pick). So, I want to keep our "second first round pick".

[Canton Mike]

 

The Iggles are counting on Bradford as much as we're counting on RG III. Continuing with the Draft value chart, for the Niners or Eagles to jump us- It's this years first & second + next year's first- minimum. There's always the first overall pick and Quarterback premium to consider. The question is would the Titans want to move down that far and how much they value top guys that fill positions of need. Adios Tunsil, Ramsey, & Bosa.

 

BTW, assuming we do get jumped and have both QBs rated equally- we just take the one they don't. The Browns do have the Ace in the Hole card. If they really want either Wentz or Goff, the Browns cost to move up one slot is the #32 pick. Browns get the guy they want, and the Titans can wheel & deal from #2, or take Tunsil. (I don't think Cleveland would do it, as the first pick on day two is really valuable) I really could see the Browns trading down out of #32.

 

Philly has no 2nd rounder this year & that HAS to be a trade up killer for them. They would literally have to give up the farm to get to #1 OR #2. Just my opinion.

 

Mike

[hoorta]

 

Philly has no 2nd rounder this year & that HAS to be a trade up killer for them. They would literally have to give up the farm to get to #1 OR #2. Just my opinion.

 

Mike

 

Thanks Mike, didn't realize that. Yup- it would cost Philly three firsts, this years first and next years 1st & 2nd, or do a Ditka, and offer the entire 2016 draft. The other trade to #1 I've been hearing is the Rams- and their first @ #15, and both seconds isn't enough ammunition IMHO.

 

That leaves Dallas or the 49ers as the only realistic teams that may want to trade up for a quarterback.

[Tim Couch Pulls Out]

Or conversely jump right on the bandwagon.

WSS

Considering I've been preaching about using analytics to make more informed decisions for, oh, 7 years...I'd say that bandwagon jumped on me.

[nickers]

Take a midol and come back when you are being rational.

 

I hope you realize that every other team in the league uses analytics. The Browns are just now getting around to it. You act as if that is all they are going to use and none of the scouts or coaches will have input.

I don't think the Steelers use Anal-litticks.. they have a guy in Kevin Colbert who knows how to draft...

[Tim Couch Pulls Out]

I don't think the Steelers use Anal-litticks.. they have a guy in Kevin Colbert who knows how to draft...

This is now one of the fucking dumbest things I've read.

[nickers]

This is now one of the fucking dumbest things I've read.

We understand your mentally incapacitated.. If its too hard to understand.. Try reading Dr. Seuss..

[LogicIsForSquares]

I don't think the Steelers use Anal-litticks.. they have a guy in Kevin Colbert who knows how to draft...

They do. Just like every other team.

[The Gipper]

I don't think the Steelers use Anal-litticks.. they have a guy in Kevin Colbert who knows how to draft...

You would be dead wrong about that, I am certain. All sports team....including NFL drafting use analytics. They just haven't pronounced it as openly as the Browns.

[Westside Steve]

You would be dead wrong about that, I am certain. All sports team....including NFL drafting use analytics. They just haven't pronounced it as openly as the Browns.

So it gives us absolutely zero advantage, correct?

 

WSS

[nickers]

You would be dead wrong about that, I am certain. All sports team....including NFL drafting use analytics. They just haven't pronounced it as openly as the Browns.

That may be true.. I however don't trust the fortunes of this team in the hands of bean counters with 0 experience or track record.

[The Gipper]

That may be true.. I however don't trust the fortunes of this team in the hands of bean counters with 0 experience or track record.

The so called "professionals" in the player evaluation area that we have had in the past have not had a stellar record.....so I don't mistrust these guys any more than I would those guys.

Beyond that.....you HaVE NO Choice in the matter. These are the guys the owner has entrusted this task to, so you will have to live with it. Your trust is a non-essential factor.

[The Gipper]

So it gives us absolutely zero advantage, correct?

 

WSS

It remains to be seen.

Fair to say?

[Tour2ma]

So it gives us absolutely zero advantage, correct?

 

That depends on how accurate our analytics are...

 

Two things are going to vary from team-to-team:

• the exact nature of the tools they develop (number, complexity, precision), and
• the weight given the results in the decision process.

Our goals are to take both to new heights in the NFL.

[Westside Steve]

 

That depends on how accurate our analytics are...

 

Two things are going to vary from team-to-team:

• the exact nature of the tools they develop (number, complexity, precision), and
• the weight given the results in the decision process.

Our goals are to take both to new heights in the NFL.

I think that's the goal of 31 other teams too. We shall see.

And if the Cleveland Browns are the last to jump on this amazing new method we will have a lot of ground to cover. By then Professor Harold Hill will have a brand new strategy with which to impress Dee Haslam.

WSS

[gftChris]

I think that's the goal of 31 other teams too. We shall see.

And if the Cleveland Browns are the last to jump on this amazing new method we will have a lot of ground to cover. By then Professor Harold Hill will have a brand new strategy with which to impress Dee Haslam.

WSS

Judging by all of the comments about how we're doing things completely differently, and how unorthodox our new system is, I highly doubt we're playing catch up.

[Westside Steve]

Judging by all of the comments about how we're doing things completely differently, and how unorthodox our new system is, I highly doubt we're playing catch up.

Fair enough, but which is it? Everybody in the league is already hip to amazing power of Analytics or this Analytics system that has captured the imagination of emperor jimmu is the dawn of a new era?

 

WSS

[gftChris]

Fair enough, but which is it? Everybody in the league is already hip to amazing power of Analytics or this Analytics system that has captured the imagination of emperor jimmu is the dawn of a new era?

 

WSS

People already use things like 40 times, saying a better 40 time correlates to more success, for example. That's analytics. We're using different methods and measuring different things, looking at trends that other teams miss like 'hey, this particular drill/attribute has a really high correlation to success in the league so we'll pay extra attention to people who score highly in that'

[Tour2ma]

People already use things like 40 times, saying a better 40 time correlates to more success, for example. That's analytics. We're using different methods and measuring different things, looking at trends that other teams miss like 'hey, this particular drill/attribute has a really high correlation to success in the league so we'll pay extra attention to people who score highly in that'

I think it's way beyond that...

 

Look for dozens of things like "Play reaction time" for MLB's and "Eye Discipline" for QBs to emerge from actual game play analyses rather than more emphasis on/different use of Combine results.

 

Then look for the algorithm(s) that boils down the mini-measures into "grades".

[gftChris]

I think it's way beyond that...

 

Look for dozens of things like "Play reaction time" for MLB's and "Eye Discipline" for QBs to emerge from actual game play analyses rather than more emphasis on/different use of Combine results.

 

Then look for the algorithm(s) that boils down the mini-measures into "grades".

For sure, I was just trying to give a simple version. You can see it on things like 'bleacher report's top 50 QBs' http://bleacherreport.com/articles/2607667-br-nfl-1000-ranking-the-top-50-quarterbacks-from-2015/page/2

 

They measure accuracy, arm strength, decision making, and mechanics, but not all out of the same value - mechanics is out of 10, while decision making is out of 20, so weighting has been applied. Then add it all up for an overall grade.

 

I'm not saying their system is perfect, or even good, but that's the kind of thing I envision, at least at that position.

[Tour2ma]

For sure, I was just trying to give a simple version. You can see it on things like 'bleacher report's top 50 QBs' http://bleacherreport.com/articles/2607667-br-nfl-1000-ranking-the-top-50-quarterbacks-from-2015/page/2

 

They measure accuracy, arm strength, decision making, and mechanics, but not all out of the same value - mechanics is out of 10, while decision making is out of 20, so weighting has been applied. Then add it all up for an overall grade.

 

I'm not saying their system is perfect, or even good, but that's the kind of thing I envision, at least at that position.

... and the test of a team's "Analytics Dept." will be their ability to refine and systematize these "measures" vs. the ability of their competition.

 

Example:

In your linked article they measure "mechanics". We could sit around a table with a few fellow forum members, watch some game tape and come up with a consensus grade...

OR...

We could determine the elements of "mechanics" (e.g., feet, hips, shoulders, head, ball security and release) and have two people responsible for each element. Then we can develop a model that considers weighting of the elements and likelihood of coaching up a given element.

 

Add a feedback loop to the model to measurable outputs and we're off to the races...

[Westside Steve]

People already use things like 40 times, saying a better 40 time correlates to more success, for example. That's analytics. We're using different methods and measuring different things, looking at trends that other teams miss like 'hey, this particular drill/attribute has a really high correlation to success in the league so we'll pay extra attention to people who score highly in that'

Fine. So you believe that our Analytics is way way different than everybody else's Analytics in some way that will make ours a lot better. . I guess I don't understand everybody else's system as opposed to ours well enough to see the nuances that set them apart.

(actually I've got just about zero clue about any of it )

 

WSS

[calfoxwc]

Say, can anybody factor in gut feelings into analytics?

 

Because that is what is making some scouts prefer Wentz.

 

For me, Wentz is the superior choice to be the face of the franchise.

**********************************

http://bleacherreport.com/articles/2609516-jared-goff-latest-news-rumors-and-buzz-surrounding-qbs-draft-stock

 

Scouts Express Concerns Regarding Goff's Skill Set Tuesday, March 22

Mark Eckel of NJ Advance Media passed along comments from several scouts who were concerned about Goff's viability at the next level:

"I hope somebody takes him early, ahead of us,'' one NFC scout said. "That would be great, drop a good player to us.

"I'm just not crazy about him, not at all. He doesn't win. Show me a quarterback who didn't win in college, that did well up here? There aren't many. To me he's another

Jay Cutler

. And you can take that any way you want." ...

"People out there love this guy, we don't,'' said an AFC scout. "We don't like him at all. He looks the part and all. But there's just something about him that turns me off. Maybe it's the slender build, or the small hands. I mean we're not taking a quarterback early, but if we were it wouldn't be him."

A second NFC scout also expressed concerns about Goff's hand size and inability to perform in the rain, adding: "He has a decent arm, can move a little. But he's not always accurate. I'd be real leery about taking him real high.''

[sdballis]

Sorry if it's been posted before, but great read

 

http://espn.go.com/nfl/story/_/id/15158945/does-north-dakota-state-qb-carson-wentz-really-add-20m