QB Questions

[Tour2ma]

And DJ chimes in...

 

Last year at this time, there was a lot of buzz and excitement starting to build around Carson Wentz and Jared Goff. This year, no such buzz exists about the draft's quarterback class. In talking to personnel executives last week at the Reese's Senior Bowl, I couldn't find anyone who was in love with any of the 2017 quarterback prospects.

Teams are split on Deshaun Watson -- some believe he would be a good late first- or early second-round pick, while others think he is a long-term project who should be a middle-round pick. Of course, all of these folks said they wouldn't be surprised if he went much higher than that -- however, they believe choosing him that high would be a mistake. I like the fact that he's going to throw at the NFL Scouting Combine next month and I'm anxious to see his official measurables.

I couldn't find a scout or executive who was excited about DeShone Kizer or Mitch Trubisky. When you're talking to teams that already have an established signal-caller, there's no reason for them to feed me false information. In fact, it would benefit them if these quarterbacks went early, dropping talented players at other positions into their lap. I'm sure one or more of these quarterback prospects will get hot and gather some steam as we head toward the draft. Will it be one of the three mentioned above or will we see another name emerge? Buckle up. This is going to be an interesting ride. -- Daniel Jeremiah

http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap3000000782360/article/move-the-sticks-notes-teams-divided-about-deshaun-watson?campaign=tw-cf-sf54335851-sf54335851

[Flugel]

Balance....great offense and great defense, absolutely are necessary. Those various dynasties that were outlined elsewhere all had that. But, again, they all had HOF caliber QBs...and that is where you have to start.

 

2 of the best QBs of all time (Joe Montana and his biggest fan - Tom Brady) were not first round QBs. Since you love tradition, Bart Starr was not either.

 

More recently (2016), the 4th round Dak Prescott easily outperformed #1 overall Jared Goff and #2 overall Carson Wentz. In 2014, 2nd round QB Derek Carr has outperformed these 3 first round QBs in his draft class: Blake Bortles, Johhny Manziel and Teddy B. Just to stay consistent, a few years ago - 3rd round QB Russell Wilson has outperformed the following 1st round QBs in his draft class: RG3, Ryan Tannehill, and Brandon Weeden. Then there's the 2007 draft where Jamarcus Russell was drafted #1overall while we traded up to draft Quinn in the 20s of round 1. Let's just say I've seen a lot of 1st round picks fail at QB while our setting on offense isn't exactly favorable for an inexperienced QB.

 

What we can do is play much better defense while making this an easier place to play QB as well. At some point in our existence here this shouldn't be easier said than done.

[Flugel]

I know people like to think the science for evaluating QB prospects outside of the film room has improved a ton; but I remain reluctant to join that thinking. From the Indy Combines to all the scripted workouts that follow it to the highly entertaining Gruden interviews/chalk talks - there's something pretty huge missing in all of them. NFL Defenses.

 

Let's take a guy like Ja-red Goff before he should have looked Sca-red behind the 5 Matadors upfront in LA. The kid actually showed gonads and guts in the pocket taking countless hits all the while he got very little help from teammates. Anyway, all the pre-draft workout criteria last off season showed him throwing without any of the following challenges he was about to see on a piss poor NFL offense:

 

1) Pass rushers in a faster league hurrying throws and invading intimate space of QB while challenging mechanics and releases.

 

2) Defensive backs with better closing speeds challenging accuracy in the NFL's world of tighter windows.

 

3) Above and beyond a much bigger NFL playbook, now let's add all the complicated Defensive Alignments and schemes with well disguised blitz packages that can confuse inexperienced QBs pre-snap. Now let's look at the rookie world according to Kessler who had 2 first year starters at WR outside with a veteran the size of Tom Thumb working in the slot. In a world where there's constant route adjustments to coverages/leverages - how do we know a lot of our QB hesitations weren't coming from the 1st year starters outside messing up their route adjustments? That's why a team like Oakland went out and got a seasoned veteran WR with route precision like Crabtree so he could be a consultant to the younger WRs there as well as the young QB in between series. Here comes that environment around QB thing again.

 

Exactly where and how was this Cleveland environment anything like the utopian pre-draft workout environments? I honestly find a lot of things I like about Trubisky so I compliment him in saying he's an equitable prospect to that of Derek Carr (who was the 4th QB taken all the way down into round 2 of his draft class). Having said that, he only started 13 games so the disappointing supply of QBs for our demand doesn't change my mind about preferring defense at #1 overall (knowing he'll be gone by #12). Joe Thomas gave a terrific summary of what happens when you miss on a 1st round QB vrs a 1st round pass rusher. That's why I've been hoping we could find a bargain later than round 1. Maybe Davis Webb is that guy or somebody else.

[Tour2ma]

Joe severely underestimated the value of placeholder...

[TexasAg1969]

Last year I thought Dak would be a great pickup.

 

This year I like Watson for the same reason I liked Dak-both perform when the game is on the line. Forget all the "looks like a pro" stuff. I saw what I needed to see at the end of the Natty game and I saw what I needed to see on the darling boy from Ohio at the end of the NC St. game. One performed under extreme game winning crunch time and the other fell apart. Give me a winner!

[Flugel]

Last year I thought Dak would be a great pickup.

 

This year I like Watson for the same reason I liked Dak-both perform when the game is on the line. Forget all the "looks like a pro" stuff. I saw what I needed to see at the end of the Natty game and I saw what I needed to see on the darling boy from Ohio at the end of the NC St. game. One performed under extreme game winning crunch time and the other fell apart. Give me a winner!

 

I think Bill Walsh thought the same thing when Joe Montana got nitpicked all the way down to him in a mid round. And then much lesser QBs like Rick Mirer and the allegedly "Pro Ready" Brady Quinn were first round QBs. Make sense? It shouldn't.

 

Brandon Weeden and Derek Anderson had bionic arms but neither possessed what it took to be long term starters. I've seen plenty of Qbs entering the NFL that were told they needed to get stronger. According to Tom Brady after a rookie season where he wore blue jeans to about 13of his first 16 NFL games - BB informed him he needed to get stronger in the weight room if he wanted to make it in this league. Land ho! I read Drew Brees crediting his strength and conditioning program for the ability to morph from the QB who once tempted SD to draft a QB first overall into a Pro Bowl QB with 12 wins the year Philip Rivers held out the length of training camp.

 

I'm sure Kessler can improve his arm strength especially while he's working with a well respected QB guru this off season to do just that. Along the same line, I'm sure this draft will have guys that are ready to go to work on the same thing.

 

It's popular for people to rip on Watson and credit it to many of the same scouts out there that once hailed Brady Quinn as the most pro ready Qb of his/adjacent QB classes. We could pull up info to support sides as easily people do it in political debates.

 

The danger of crib sheeting a QB beyond his uniqueness to that of a Tedford system QB stereotype is that all of the teams except the one that already had Brett Favre starting were unwilling to draft him before #24 overall. Before that, the 2 guys that bucked the BYU system QB stereotype were Jim McMahon and Steve Young when guys like Gifford Nielson, Marc Wilson and Ty Detmer couldn't keep starting jobs. So when guys start telling me Watson can only be RG3 or one of the other black QBs that struggled - I like to ask why can't he become another Warren Moon, Steve McNair or Donovan McNabb? Who says? Remember when Moon was too short which also carried the stereotype of what kind of arm strength someone that size could only have? He wasn't any different than Joe Theisman (who also had to begin his career in the CFL). Same with Jeff Garcia who made Pro Bowls for 3 different NFL teams he led to playoffs. That said, when he played for environments like Cleveland and Detroit - he blended in with stink.

 

It's popular to predict Watson will suck just like it was to discount Prescott or Wilson. And why? Hardly anyone is coming from a pro style offense. I heard that nonsense when our FO/Chris Palmer explained they weren't comfortable counting on a QB (McNabb) coming our of a Veer Option. It's almost as if there was never any such thing as Brett Favre coming out of a very similar offense at So Miss prior to stardom in a WCO.

[The Gipper]

 

2 of the best QBs of all time (Joe Montana and his biggest fan - Tom Brady) were not first round QBs. Since you love tradition, Bart Starr was not either.

 

More recently (2016), the 4th round Dak Prescott easily outperformed #1 overall Jared Goff and #2 overall Carson Wentz. In 2014, 2nd round QB Derek Carr has outperformed these 3 first round QBs in his draft class: Blake Bortles, Johhny Manziel and Teddy B. Just to stay consistent, a few years ago - 3rd round QB Russell Wilson has outperformed the following 1st round QBs in his draft class: RG3, Ryan Tannehill, and Brandon Weeden. Then there's the 2007 draft where Jamarcus Russell was drafted #1overall while we traded up to draft Quinn in the 20s of round 1. Let's just say I've seen a lot of 1st round picks fail at QB while our setting on offense isn't exactly favorable for an inexperienced QB.

 

What we can do is play much better defense while making this an easier place to play QB as well. At some point in our existence here this shouldn't be easier said than done.

Sure, you have a few outliers in terms of franchise QBs.....but, in the history of the NFL, at least recently.....the better, franchise QBs generally get drafted early. Its just a fact.

[Flugel]

Sure, you have a few outliers in terms of franchise QBs.....but, in the history of the NFL, at least recently.....the better, franchise QBs generally get drafted early. Its just a fact.

 

While true Gips, can we stop pretending the Blaine Gabberts, Matt Leinarts, Ryan Leafs, RG3s, Cade McNowns, Akili Smiths, Jake Lockers, Mike Phipps, Brandon Weedens, Brady Quinns, Jamarcus Russells, Partick Ramseys, JP Losmans, Joey Harringtons, Kyle Bollers, and countless other bad first round picks at QB do not exist?

 

Nobody on this board used to have as much fun as you pointing out how many QBs that were drafted after round 1 went on to very successful NFL careers inclusive of SB Sundays. That is, prior to a recent QB prospect that played high school ball in Mentor, Ohio came along to change your fondness of those takes. Am I fair or right in pointing this out to you?

[CaineDeSoulis]

 

I think Bill Walsh thought the same thing when Joe Montana got nitpicked all the way down to him in a mid round. And then much lesser QBs like Rick Mirer and the allegedly "Pro Ready" Brady Quinn were first round QBs. Make sense? It shouldn't.

 

Brandon Weeden and Derek Anderson had bionic arms but neither possessed what it took to be long term starters. I've seen plenty of Qbs entering the NFL that were told they needed to get stronger. According to Tom Brady after a rookie season where he wore blue jeans to about 13of his first 16 NFL games - BB informed him he needed to get stronger in the weight room if he wanted to make it in this league. Land ho! I read Drew Brees crediting his strength and conditioning program for the ability to morph from the QB who once tempted SD to draft a QB first overall into a Pro Bowl QB with 12 wins the year Philip Rivers held out the length of training camp.

 

I'm sure Kessler can improve his arm strength especially while he's working with a well respected QB guru this off season to do just that. Along the same line, I'm sure this draft will have guys that are ready to go to work on the same thing.

 

It's popular for people to rip on Watson and credit it to many of the same scouts out there that once hailed Brady Quinn as the most pro ready Qb of his/adjacent QB classes. We could pull up info to support sides as easily people do it in political debates.

 

The danger of crib sheeting a QB beyond his uniqueness to that of a Tedford system QB stereotype is that all of the teams except the one that already had Brett Favre starting were unwilling to draft him before #24 overall. Before that, the 2 guys that bucked the BYU system QB stereotype were Jim McMahon and Steve Young when guys like Gifford Nielson, Marc Wilson and Ty Detmer couldn't keep starting jobs. So when guys start telling me Watson can only be RG3 or one of the other black QBs that struggled - I like to ask why can't he become another Warren Moon, Steve McNair or Donovan McNabb? Who says? Remember when Moon was too short which also carried the stereotype of what kind of arm strength someone that size could only have? He wasn't any different than Joe Theisman (who also had to begin his career in the CFL). Same with Jeff Garcia who made Pro Bowls for 3 different NFL teams he led to playoffs. That said, when he played for environments like Cleveland and Detroit - he blended in with stink.

 

It's popular to predict Watson will suck just like it was to discount Prescott or Wilson. And why? Hardly anyone is coming from a pro style offense. I heard that nonsense when our FO/Chris Palmer explained they weren't comfortable counting on a QB (McNabb) coming our of a Veer Option. It's almost as if there was never any such thing as Brett Favre coming out of a very similar offense at So Miss prior to stardom in a WCO.

To be fair McNabb,McNair did NOT throw double digit interceptions on one of the top college teams in football for 2 consecutive years. and Moon was kinda like finding a winning lottery ticket on the ground.

 

Watson does not compare to these QB's

[Flugel]

To be fair McNabb,McNair did NOT throw double digit interceptions on one of the top college teams in football for 2 consecutive years. and Moon was kinda like finding a winning lottery ticket on the ground.

 

Watson does not compare to these QB's

 

Fair enough. How many of those QBs were capable of beating the #1 ranked defense of all time the way Watson did that? In 2 Championship games vrs that Alabama defense about to stockpile the first 2 rounds of the NFL draft - how many points did the Clemson Offense average under Watson's leadership? In order to compete in 2 consecutive National Championship Games, he had to do things like light up Ohio State's defense for 31 points or whatever he did to their playoff opponent last year.

 

All the while McNabb's teams either tied for 1st place finishes in the Big East or finished as a close runner-up to Miami/Va Tech - it was because he could not BEAT those teams in the Big Games in conference.

 

I don't remember Clemson competing for National Championships back when Boyd QB'd them. They had the strong defenses back then with 1st round WRs like Sammy Watkins and DeAndre Hopkins. Interestingly enough, the Clemson WR that scored 4 TDs vrs Alabama in the last 2 National Championship Games was Renfrow.

 

Prior to a HOF career with 4 SB wins, Montana had a 52% completion rate his JR year with 11 TD passes to 8 INTs while sporting a 54% completion rate with 10 TD Passes to 9 INTs his final year at ND. Not exactly the kind of passing numbers advertising the NFL greatness to follow from him. On the opposite extreme, you can see a Russell Wilson's nice completion % nit-picked all the way down to dink and donksies.

 

I'm not advocating for us to take Watson at #1 overall or even #12 overall. I'm just saying if he goes to the right situation like Montana did back when all the same questions were being asked by the NFL scouts - someone could have the same type of steal on their hands. You can't be a trainwreck at QB to beat Ohio State by 31 points before being the only QB capable of beating that Bama D. Above all, when Watson's margin of error was all the way down to 1 error = Bama wins, who stopped him from driving his team the length of the field for the go ahead score? That doesn't sound like the loser I keep seeing portrayed.

[CaineDeSoulis]

Tajh Boyd last two years of college

*2012 Clemson ACC JR QB 13 287 427 67.2% 3896 9.1 9.4 36 13 165.6

*2013 Clemson ACC SR QB 13 283 413 68.5% 3851 9.3 9.8 34 11 168.7

Deshaun Watson Last Two years of college

*2015 Clemson ACC SO QB 15 333 491 67.8% 4109 8.4 8.6 35 13 156.3

*2016 Clemson ACC JR QB 15 388 579 67.0% 4593 7.9 8.0 41 17 151.1

Statisically Boyd is the superior QB but regardless you can EASILY tell that these QB's are a product of enviroment and system.


It's not that he's going to be a bad QB but to look at him as anything more than a 2nd rounder is buying into the hype machine that is NCAA football these days. He has a chance to develop into a serviceable starter but he just does not have all the tools needed to thrive in the NFL at this point. He may develop them but he needs as much work as kizer needs.

Go ahead use this same comparative as an analytic measurement with other players and you can estimate player impact a little better.

[Tour2ma]

Fair enough. How many of those QBs were capable of beating the #1 ranked defense of all time the way Watson did that?

 

Not to undermine your take, but the in-game analysis by Herbie was pretty spot on... the Nat Champ was a war of attrition. Clemson as a team ground down the BAMA D... especially the DL.

 

Watson capitalized on the cumulative impact late to be sure, but early his play was undistinguished. I think the 21-point 4th quarter was more a case of BAMA falling as it was Watson rising.

 

 

OK... maybe undermine your take a little...

[Flugel]

Tajh Boyd last two years of college

*2012 Clemson ACC JR QB 13 287 427 67.2% 3896 9.1 9.4 36 13 165.6

*2013 Clemson ACC SR QB 13 283 413 68.5% 3851 9.3 9.8 34 11 168.7

Deshaun Watson Last Two years of college

*2015 Clemson ACC SO QB 15 333 491 67.8% 4109 8.4 8.6 35 13 156.3

*2016 Clemson ACC JR QB 15 388 579 67.0% 4593 7.9 8.0 41 17 151.1

Statisically Boyd is the superior QB but regardless you can EASILY tell that these QB's are a product of enviroment and system.

 

 

It's not that he's going to be a bad QB but to look at him as anything more than a 2nd rounder is buying into the hype machine that is NCAA football these days. He has a chance to develop into a serviceable starter but he just does not have all the tools needed to thrive in the NFL at this point. He may develop them but he needs as much work as kizer needs.

 

Go ahead use this same comparative as an analytic measurement with other players and you can estimate player impact a little better.

 

I appreciate your statistical comparison above Caine. You did a great job with your argument! The only thing I'll nit-pick somewhat is those stats above reflect Boyd's JR and SR year up against Watson's SOPH and JR year.

 

Despite our debate here - I don't think we're really that far apart. I want us using our #1 on the best Defensive Player of this draft and our #12 on O.J. Howard. I don't want any of this year's QBs up in either of our first 2 picks.

 

I really don't think Watson is getting overhyped all the way up to either of our first 2 draft spots. I could very well be wrong about that; but I see him getting pushed down to either round 2 or 3 where I'd find him intriguing enough for temptation. Not too much different than I now feel about Webb.

 

If anything looked overhyped in the last 2 Championship Games vrs Alabama - Clemson's defense gave up 45 points when Watson was a Soph (that led his offense 40 points). This last year when Watson was a Junior, Bama scored 31 points which put the pressure on Watson to lead his offense to more than 31 points vrs the highest ranked college football defense of all time (according to ESPN radio the day after). He led his offense to 35 points which was good enough to beat Bama. To average 36 points against that defense under his leadership when he was just a soph and junior QB seems like an unparalleled accomplishment worthy of praise IMO.. As much credit as Clemson's defense has received/deserved for all their other work - they didn't give their QB very much room for error vrs Alabama in the last 2 National Championship Games their defense surrendered 76 points in.

[Flugel]

 

Not to undermine your take, but the in-game analysis by Herbie was pretty spot on... the Nat Champ was a war of attrition. Clemson as a team ground down the BAMA D... especially the DL.

 

Watson capitalized on the cumulative impact late to be sure, but early his play was undistinguished. I think the 21-point 4th quarter was more a case of BAMA falling as it was Watson rising.

 

 

OK... maybe undermine your take a little...

 

All valid points Tour! The side of the coin I'm arguing here is if someone wasn't leading that Clemson offense to consistently move the chains and convert first downs into more time of possession against an exhausted defense unaccustomed to anybody doing this to them - there's no such thing as the ability/chance to erase such a deficit we witnessed that not too many people saw coming (besides maybe the Ohio State Defense he did that to 1 week earlier). I was very impressed with his ability to refrain from the game ending mistake while exhibiting the poise to make all the clutch plays to extend the drives. I don't think that wearing out simply happened by accident.

 

I don't know how to describe this college QB any better than I could sum up Joe Montana after he led his team to a National Championship. Neither had the best TD/INT ratios but there was something uniquely special about their blends of vision, poise and accuracy when their margin of error got down to zero in order to erase the late deficits that allowed them to win the National Championship. There's an it factor there I can't articulate well at all. My favorite 2 QBs in Cleveland had imperfections they consistently overcame as they erased countless deficits for our Kardiac Kids.

 

As I told Caine, I would be okay with us drafting Watson after round 1.

[gumby73]

Flug, it's been a long time, but I hope our FO knows something we don't. As in pick #1, Gregg Williams should know his missing piece in his 4-3 front & he must pick a STARTER in Garrett or Allen. 31st in total defense.31st against rush.21st against pass..My question at Pick #12 has always been "can we afford a luxury pick" as in OJ Howard or Rubin Foster if say they know Crow is likely moving on & Fournette is still on board? Also could still see a Mitch at #12. The Loser of Hooker & Adams at S/FS. all at #12. may i raise you a Dramon Williams for a missing Joe Haden? Pick #12 & #33..we can't miss..Do we feel LUCKY or Luxury?

[Flugel]

Out of your fucking mind. We already have Black Tarkenton. Watson is shit, pure shit.

 

I'd be ecstatic with a QB who frequents Pro Bowls and wins Conference Championships like Tarkenton did during his Hall of Fame career just like I'm ecstatic to have a LT who made 10 consecutive Pro Bowls.

[Flugel]

Flug, it's been a long time, but I hope our FO knows something we don't. As in pick #1, Gregg Williams should know his missing piece in his 4-3 front & he must pick a STARTER in Garrett or Allen. 31st in total defense.31st against rush.21st against pass..My question at Pick #12 has always been "can we afford a luxury pick" as in OJ Howard or Rubin Foster if say they know Crow is likely moving on & Fournette is still on board? Also could still see a Mitch at #12. The Loser of Hooker & Adams at S/FS. all at #12. may i raise you a Dramon Williams for a missing Joe Haden? Pick #12 & #33..we can't miss..Do we feel LUCKY or Luxury?

 

Interesting Gumby! Totally agree about #1 overall. #12 is going to be really interesting in terms of who is still there. If somehow Foster is still there to my surprise, I could be just as happy with us taking him as I would be with OJ Howard. I'd even be surprised if Foster slid down as far as #10. I think O.J. Howard is going to be the offensive star of round 1.

 

You kind of caught me off guard about Crow. Are you hearing/reading he wants to leave? I'm still not a big fan of going running back in round 1. As for Mitch, his experience volume keeps me thinking he should be drafted in an equitable draft slot to that of Derek Carr in round 2. I'd be far more excited about getting him in round 2 than at #12 overall. I don't think we're any more ready for him than LA was for Jared Goff; while this fan base and perhaps Joe Thomas will be a lot less patient with another rookie QB than LA. It's kind of like a little kid wanting a puppy mentality all the way up until he realizes part of the deal is making sure he always takes the puppy outside when he wakes up, after school and before bedtime regardless of the weather outside. Sometimes, especially in Cleveland, the reality isn't always as wonderful as the idea...

 

After learning about Hooker's 2 different injuries and watching Lorenzo Jerome at the Senior Bowl, I get the feeling we can land a terrific Safety up near the top of round 2 should that be necessary. There's a lot of guys at #12 I could really dig. Like I said though, I really miss having an elite TE here for the length of time Ozzie Newsome spoiled us with. We never frequented the playoffs as often as we did in the 80s enjoying his important dynamic to our passing game. I have a feeling Howard could really jumper cable our passing out of park mode...

[gumby73]

You kind of caught me off guard about Crow. Are you hearing/reading he wants to leave? I'm still not a big fan of going running back in round 1.

Ecstatic we got a GM that worked a Collins deal perfectly & got a 4 year deal done on the Proven player in Collins. For months during the season they worked on a Pryor deal, but as late as it is, it is more than likely we use the franchise tag on Pryor shortly. A 1 year Cousins "prove it again tag". Soon after Collins deal was done. SB moved to a Crow deal that broke down quickly per cleveland.com. Crow is a Restricted FA. Crow will be given a draft tender value as Tashawn Gipson was & we can match any teams offer. As far down as we were in games Crow on Avg. got about 13 carries per game averaging over 4.5 yrds. per carry. Did the coaches get the right evaluation they were after? Crows 24 years young & not a NFL beat up RB. But he's not a L.McCoy RB either. If we build'em, let's start keep'em..(duke still gets killed running anywhere between tackles)

[hoorta]

 

Fair enough. How many of those QBs were capable of beating the #1 ranked defense of all time the way Watson did that? In 2 Championship games vrs that Alabama defense about to stockpile the first 2 rounds of the NFL draft - how many points did the Clemson Offense average under Watson's leadership? In order to compete in 2 consecutive National Championship Games, he had to do things like light up Ohio State's defense for 31 points or whatever he did to their playoff opponent last year.

 

All the while McNabb's teams either tied for 1st place finishes in the Big East or finished as a close runner-up to Miami/Va Tech - it was because he could not BEAT those teams in the Big Games in conference.

 

I don't remember Clemson competing for National Championships back when Boyd QB'd them. They had the strong defenses back then with 1st round WRs like Sammy Watkins and DeAndre Hopkins. Interestingly enough, the Clemson WR that scored 4 TDs vrs Alabama in the last 2 National Championship Games was Renfrow.

 

Prior to a HOF career with 4 SB wins, Montana had a 52% completion rate his JR year with 11 TD passes to 8 INTs while sporting a 54% completion rate with 10 TD Passes to 9 INTs his final year at ND. Not exactly the kind of passing numbers advertising the NFL greatness to follow from him. On the opposite extreme, you can see a Russell Wilson's nice completion % nit-picked all the way down to dink and donksies.

 

I'm not advocating for us to take Watson at #1 overall or even #12 overall. I'm just saying if he goes to the right situation like Montana did back when all the same questions were being asked by the NFL scouts - someone could have the same type of steal on their hands. You can't be a trainwreck at QB to beat Ohio State by 31 points before being the only QB capable of beating that Bama D. Above all, when Watson's margin of error was all the way down to 1 error = Bama wins, who stopped him from driving his team the length of the field for the go ahead score? That doesn't sound like the loser I keep seeing portrayed.

 

Yeah Tom - Watson no higher than second round- you know how I feel about him. You're totally in love with his playoff run- he wasn't so hot before that. And I will say this- Clemson only won that game against 'Bama because they ran a pick play- for the second time- that didn't get called. Put Trubisky on that Clemson team- he'd beat 'Bama too.

 

 

I appreciate your statistical comparison above Caine. You did a great job with your argument! The only thing I'll nit-pick somewhat is those stats above reflect Boyd's JR and SR year up against Watson's SOPH and JR year.

 

Despite our debate here - I don't think we're really that far apart. I want us using our #1 on the best Defensive Player of this draft and our #12 on O.J. Howard. I don't want any of this year's QBs up in either of our first 2 picks.

 

I really don't think Watson is getting overhyped all the way up to either of our first 2 draft spots. I could very well be wrong about that; but I see him getting pushed down to either round 2 or 3 where I'd find him intriguing enough for temptation. Not too much different than I now feel about Webb.

 

If anything looked overhyped in the last 2 Championship Games vrs Alabama - Clemson's defense gave up 45 points when Watson was a Soph (that led his offense 40 points). This last year when Watson was a Junior, Bama scored 31 points which put the pressure on Watson to lead his offense to more than 31 points vrs the highest ranked college football defense of all time (according to ESPN radio the day after). He led his offense to 35 points which was good enough to beat Bama. To average 36 points against that defense under his leadership when he was just a soph and junior QB seems like an unparalleled accomplishment worthy of praise IMO.. As much credit as Clemson's defense has received/deserved for all their other work - they didn't give their QB very much room for error vrs Alabama in the last 2 National Championship Games their defense surrendered 76 points in.

 

Dabo thinks he's the second coming- miss that one? Not accurate deep, and he's another helicopter McCown.

[wargograw]

You know who else had a lot of interceptions in his last season? Jameis Winston. More than Watson to be exact, and that was with one less game. Watson also threw for 16 more TDs. And whaddya know, Watson had a better completion percentage too over 110 more passes.

 

All this statistical analysis means nothing sometimes.

[Flugel]

 

Yeah Tom - Watson no higher than second round- you know how I feel about him. You're totally in love with his playoff run- he wasn't so hot before that. And I will say this- Clemson only won that game against 'Bama because they ran a pick play- for the second time- that didn't get called. Put Trubisky on that Clemson team- he'd beat 'Bama too.

 

Very interesting since I seem to remember a "Fail for Cardale" chorus in harmony back when he was only 3 starts old punctuating a playoff run. A bigger body of work took care of that one. Which guy in this debate keeps cautioning why a small body of work may be telling us more than you want it to?

 

I'm not totally in love with anyone I want us to wait until round 2 to consider taking. I believe I posted the same thing about where I'd prefer us to take Trubisky in round 2 when I compared him to Derek Carr. So please inform me how I'm being unfair to 1 of those guys only. If you want to take that as a personal insult, that's a guilt trip I'm not taking. I'm just merely trying to encourage people to keep more of an open mind about Watson if he falls where I expect him to. Expecting Watson to fall out of round 1 means I'm cognizant of imperfections.

 

If Trubisky didn't choose Ohio State because he didn't think he was as good as Barrett, you don't have to blame Watson, me or Barrett for that one. In fact, he didn't even beat out whoever played QB at North Carolina - which confined him to only starting 1 year in the ACC. I have zero to do with all that. I'm just the one willing to wonder how any QB that will be the answer to all our prayers could possibly be held hostage to such things I mentioned. You're stuck on pause with he's from Mentor, Ohio so you're here to slap a tuxedo and cologne on his shit after you give it a thorough polish.

[Tour2ma]

Personally I was underwhelmed by Winston's progress in 2016.

 

 

But back on Crow... just feels like he is going to negotiate his way into a cheap tender. One that I pray someone will beat, but we will not match as the whole RFA tender thing just seems to create too many ego bruises.

 

Add that while I like Crow, he is far from irreplaceable. I can see at least three Crow-ish RBs in this draft spread out in rounds 3 thru 6.

[CaineDeSoulis]

You know who else had a lot of interceptions in his last season? Jameis Winston. More than Watson to be exact, and that was with one less game. Watson also threw for 16 more TDs. And whaddya know, Watson had a better completion percentage too over 110 more passes.

 

All this statistical analysis means nothing sometimes.

EJ Manuel last two years of college

*2011 Florida State ACC JR QB 12 203 311 65.3 2666 8.6 8.6 18 8 151.2

*2012 Florida State ACC SR QB 14 263 387 68.0 3397 8.8 8.8 23 10 156.1

 

Jameis Winston last tyo years of college

*2013 Florida State ACC FR QB 14 257 384 66.9 4057 10.6 11.5 40 10 184.8

*2014 Florida State ACC SO QB 13 305 467 65.3 3907 8.4 7.7 25 18 145.5

 

Here you can see a dramatic increase in several key statistics from Manuel to Winston.

[Flugel]

Personally I was underwhelmed by Winston's progress in 2016.

 

 

But back on Crow... just feels like he is going to negotiate his way into a cheap tender. One that I pray someone will beat, but we will not match as the whole RFA tender thing just seems to create too many ego bruises.

 

Add that while I like Crow, he is far from irreplaceable. I can see at least three Crow-ish RBs in this draft spread out in rounds 3 thru 6.

 

Here's the problem I see with losing somebody like Crow. We've invested 3 years in training him so that RB is one of the few strengths we have on offense. Giving him up not only means we make another cupboard bare; but someone else gets to celebrate his experience and talent while we create 1 more need to fill by an inexperienced rookie. If he can average 4.8 yards per carry here, I'll bet there's a lot of places he can probably average somewhere between 5 and 6 yards a carry. In fact, when both our Guards were healthy - he had a stretch of games he averaged about 6.4 yards a carry.

 

If this organization wants players to buy into Cleveland is going to change for the better, actions speak louder than words. Commit to those that have worked hard here like Crow. That seems like a better bridge to continuity than showing players they're just a number the FO can easily replace.

 

This FO has some ideal opportunities this off season to make believers out of critics and people on wait and see mode. Well, here's that juicy pitch to our FO in the batter's box. If they let Crow go, they watched a perfect strike go over the plate without even swinging at it IMO.

[wargograw]

EJ Manuel last two years of college

*2011 Florida State ACC JR QB 12 203 311 65.3 2666 8.6 8.6 18 8 151.2

*2012 Florida State ACC SR QB 14 263 387 68.0 3397 8.8 8.8 23 10 156.1

 

Jameis Winston last tyo years of college

*2013 Florida State ACC FR QB 14 257 384 66.9 4057 10.6 11.5 40 10 184.8

*2014 Florida State ACC SO QB 13 305 467 65.3 3907 8.4 7.7 25 18 145.5

 

Here you can see a dramatic increase in several key statistics from Manuel to Winston.

 

And you can see a dramatic increase in several key statistics from Winston to Watson. So?

[wargograw]

Personally I was underwhelmed by Winston's progress in 2016.

 

 

But back on Crow... just feels like he is going to negotiate his way into a cheap tender. One that I pray someone will beat, but we will not match as the whole RFA tender thing just seems to create too many ego bruises.

 

Add that while I like Crow, he is far from irreplaceable. I can see at least three Crow-ish RBs in this draft spread out in rounds 3 thru 6.

 

Nevertheless, he's a no-doubt franchise QB.

[CaineDeSoulis]

Different offenses for one war. You need to find the players that elevated their program not just mantained it.

[wargograw]

Winning a national championship isn't elevating? Are you aware FSU is the winningestprogram in the country over the last 30 years?

[CaineDeSoulis]

Clemson Defense

Using Football outsiders for the years Deshaun Watson and Tahj Boyd* played for Clemson

2016 (14-1) Ranked 6th in Defense
2015 (14-1) Ranked 6th in Defense
2014 (10-3) Ranked 1st in Defense
2013 (11-2) Ranked 12th in Defense
2012 (11-2) Ranked 34th in Defense

And yes of course clemson's offense was actually more effective 2013-2012 both being ranked higher than the last 2 years.

[Flugel]

Clemson Defense

 

Using Football outsiders for the years Deshaun Watson and Tahj Boyd* played for Clemson

 

2016 (14-1) Ranked 6th in Defense

2015 (14-1) Ranked 6th in Defense

2014 (10-3) Ranked 1st in Defense

2013 (11-2) Ranked 12th in Defense

2012 (11-2) Ranked 34th in Defense

 

And yes of course clemson's offense was actually more effective 2013-2012 both being ranked higher than the last 2 years.

 

 

 

Are you aware Clemson went from being the 2nd or 3rd best team in a weaker ACC (w/ Boyd) to the best team in a stronger ACC (w/ Watson the last 2 years)? This gave them the opportunity to participate in the last 2 National Championship Games making them #2 in the Country last year and #1 this year. I'm not sold Boyd would have been able to erase a 21 point deficit against this year's Alabama team especially if he was just a JR.

 

Here's another thing to consider when people want to race to the conclusion Clemson's defense had to drag Watson through the last 2 National Championship Games. In their first matchup, Alabama scored 45 points while Clemson scored 40 points. Who kept that game competitive Clemson's QB or their defense? In their second matchup, Alabama scored 31 points which raised the challenge for Clemson's offense to beat that point total against the most dominant defense in college football. They scored 35 points inclusive of erasing a 21 point deficit. Clemson's Defense gave up 76 points in those 2 games to Alabama, which is asking a lot of their QB and his offense. They scored 75 points in 2 matchups vrs an Alabama defense ready to stockpile the first few rounds of the NFL draft. Watson went 28-2 as a QB in his Soph & Jr year. The only times he lost were 45-40 to Bama as a soph and 43-42 to Pitt as a Jr for those thinking a dominating defense carried Watson.

 

Believe it or not, the ACC had the best out of conference record and Bowl record by a huge margin. I think North Carolina was one of the only ACC teams that lost their Bowl Game so we gotta give Gipper some props for defending the strength of the ACC. When Boyd was playing QB at Clemson in the ACC, the ACC didn't do nearly as well outside of conference or in Bowl season. Don't listen to your buddy Flugel - just Google...