Browns Defense

[Unsympathetic]

6 hours ago, hx214 said:

there is no excuse to be in the top 5 year after year in cap space

This is NOT the case.

The cap this year is 198.2

Our liabilities this year are 198.0.

The so-called "cap space" is all due to "Rollover" from the Sashi years.  Its value is zero the year after it's spent.  Further explanation in the link below.

The smart way to think of this is that we can resign our actual good young players to cap-friendly long-term deals.. and NOT to touch it otherwise.  Of course, that means we'll spend it on another washed-up moron because "Nobody could have guessed that a 41-year old safety lost a step"

 

Our actual 2020 cap space is 0.2 million.  That's a large salary for you or me.. but in the NFL that's barely a practice squad player.

Also note that the cap will decrease anywhere from 30-80M from 2020 to 2021.. so we could use this as an opportunity to be buyers next offseason.

[Tour2ma]

5 hours ago, SdBacker80 said:

The Defense being “fucked up” is a problem now 

You miss my point...

While our D is not good, it's not like it was good last year and somehow we fucked it up, which is what Yipper is saying. As usual he is wrong...

I took your earlier comment as agreeing that this was the case.

[Tour2ma]

Thanks for the Cap 101 summary...

47 minutes ago, Unsympathetic said:

Of course, that means we'll spend it on another washed-up moron because "Nobody could have guessed that a 41-year old safety lost a step"

You probably meant to say, "... a vet on a bargain, essentially league-minimum, one-year deal to fill out a roster?"

And we absolutely will do that...

 

As the cap grows we'll add talent thru the draft, keep extending the good players we've landed and add an prize UFA here and there. The "rollover" will remain banked until it's time to make that final push... and despite the anguish in the peanut gallery, that time ain't 2020.

[hx214]

35 minutes ago, Tour2ma said:

As the cap grows we'll add talent thru the draft, keep extending the good players we've landed and add an prize UFA here and there. The "rollover" will remain banked until it's time to make that final push... and despite the anguish in the peanut gallery, that time ain't 2020.

Hahahahaha..... I can’t tell if this is sarcasm or not... based on the fact that this team has been unable to do any of this for the last 20 years...

Always next year! 

[The Gipper]

1 hour ago, Tour2ma said:

You miss my point...

While our D is not good, it's not like it was good last year and somehow we fucked it up, which is what Yipper is saying. As usual he is wrong...

I took your earlier comment as agreeing that this was the case.

No, that is not what I meant, Cowardly Lion. You read everything literally?  I guess you must be getting ready for Armageddon. ... in essence I said it is fucked up because nothing has really been done to help it. 

But, riddle this :  why is  it that reports are that we have  over 38 mill in cap space....yet Unsymp says we have only like 200 K in cap space?  And why is it necessary now to "save cap space" for the future. If you sign a guy now to a contract for the rest of this year....how does that affect next year?  Unless you sign that guy again to a new contract for next year? 

[Unsympathetic]

Browns OverTheCap -- Total Cap Liabilities: $197,990,518 = 2020 Browns salary expenses.

2020 NFL salary cap = 198,200,000. 

Maths alert: [198,200,000 - 197,990,518] = Browns are 209,482 under the cap based on 2020 salaries alone. [Note active cap spending is 183.9, dead money is 14 for a total of 197.9]

Also on the most recent link we see a formula: Team Salary Cap = (Base Salary Cap) + (Carryover) +/- (Adjustments).  

So, since we see that the Browns are listed as having a "team cap space" of $30,709,629.. only 209,482 of that are due to 2020 salaries under the 2020 salary cap.  The remaining [30,709,629 - 209,482] or 30,500,147 is carryover, aka "Rollover."  More Detail about Rollover

"Under the CBA, teams are permitted to carry over unused salary cap space to the following season."

Note that from the last link, our FA burned half of our rollover this past offseason.. so don't let yourself think we're not being aggressive.. we are aggressive, we're just not very good at it..

12 hours ago, The Gipper said:

And why is it necessary now to "save cap space" for the future

When we re-sign Ward and give him a 10M bonus.. that bonus would otherwise count against that season's player salary cap and would basically mean we'd have to let a different 10Mm/yr FA walk rather than resign him.  Instead, we could use 10M of the 30M currently in our rollover and not let some other FA walk.  Sure, you can also amortize the bonus over some number of years but the point is that the 198.2 cap is still a max whether it's a good backup DB or one guy's bonus.

Spending [Wasting!] cap space on FA's who aren't any good is a big part of why priorGM was escorted out of the building..

 

An example of a good trade that Berry should have done is a 6th [Only a sixth!] for CB/S King from the Bolts who was an All-Pro in 2018.  CLE's 6th is better than the pick they accepted from TEN, so this was very doable.

[Tour2ma]

4 hours ago, hx214 said:

Hahahahaha..... I can’t tell if this is sarcasm or not... based on the fact that this team has been unable to do any of this for the last 20 years...

It's not...

If you believe our past dooms our future, then WTF are you doing here?

[Flugel]

19 hours ago, Tour2ma said:

 

So.... D was not fucked up this year?

The D was leading the entire NFL in turnovers/takeaways for much of the first 7 weeks of the season.   That's a pretty good place to rank #1 in the NFL so I'll take it..  Myles Garrett, who received a healthy contract extension, had a lot to do with causing many of these turnovers.   

We have 8 weeks left - so let's see what happens from here...

 

 

[hx214]

9 hours ago, Tour2ma said:

It's not...

If you believe our past dooms our future, then WTF are you doing here?

You placing bets on a "future" instead of taking a 5-3 start and pushing for a playoff run. 

History is a good teacher. Where should the Browns be placing their bet? 

A weak schedule in front of them with five wins in their pocket already OR save for a future that is unknown. 

I'll double down right now, make the playoffs and let the bodies fall where they may. 

I've watched an 8-8 Giants team win the Super Bowl and a Back Up QB win MVP in the Super Bowl. 

I'll take my chances this year, rather than draft the next Barkevious Mingo next year. 

In the last two days I've watched teams that don't even have black holes on their defense pick up guys at depth for 6th and 7th round road apple picks that would make this defense better in every aspect while Berry has sat on his hands Sashi style and let them trot out Sandejo and Taki Taki to keep all that sweet sweet draft capital that they never hit on.

Delpit couldn't even make it through camp,  Elliot has 2 tackles all season (which is pretty shitty considering he didn't even register a solo tackle until the Raiders game.... even when Ogunjobi was out) Phillips has seen 10 snaps all year... The Browns have the 4th youngest team in the NFL. How many of the 9 draft picks are making this team next year.... 

Fix the damn holes.

All teams have to do is watch that god awful Raiders game tape and stuff it straight down the Browns throats the rest of the season.

[SdBacker80]

15 hours ago, Tour2ma said:

You miss my point...

While our D is not good, it's not like it was good last year and somehow we fucked it up, which is what Yipper is saying. As usual he is wrong...

I took your earlier comment as agreeing that this was the case.

It wasn’t good last year and it isn’t good this year.  What difference does it make other than were put on notice this offseason and didn’t do enough.  It wasn’t the highest priority - that was fixing the Oline and getting a head coach in place. Both were great priorities don’t get me wrong.

Does anyone truly think the defense was good last year?  We got beat by a QB named “Duck” and we made Mixon look like Sayers. And  Probably the most disgusting display of defense turn on the Cards Browns 2019 game. 
 

 

[Flugel]

14 hours ago, Tour2ma said:

It's not...

If you believe our past dooms our future, then WTF are you doing here?

Inventory of the Whinery shows some guys need a new hobby.  

[hx214]

43 minutes ago, Flugel said:

Inventory of the Whinery shows some guys need a new hobby.  

Ya.... we will see the whining when the Eagles and Jags beat this defense and the Browns cut their 5th, 6th and 7th round picks next camp.

[bjh2130]

19 hours ago, The Gipper said:

But, riddle this :  why is  it that reports are that we have  over 38 mill in cap space....yet Unsymp says we have only like 200 K in cap space?  And why is it necessary now to "save cap space" for the future. If you sign a guy now to a contract for the rest of this year....how does that affect next year?  Unless you sign that guy again to a new contract for next year? 

Unsympathetic explained it pretty well.  That 38 million in cap is rollover cap space and is typically saved to resign the good young players you have on your team.  Do some research on "rollover cap" in the nfl. It may help you to better understand.

[Unsympathetic]

8 hours ago, hx214 said:

teams that don't even have black holes on their defense pick up guys at depth for 6th and 7th round road apple picks

Stop with the revisionist history. This is absolutely not true. The only deal we could/should have done is a 6th for Bolts' Desmond King - now a Chief - who has a 74.0 rating.

 

Williamson is a 43.2 -- 10 points higher than mack wilson but still lower than rookie LB's.  50 is average.. lower than that is not a good player.  Here's an example of a backup rookie LB rated above 50 on a long contract.

Ngakoue pulls off a decent pass rush 6 plays a game [and gets a pressure on one of them every other game] - but hasn't cracked 30 on his run defense grade this year.  He's a 245 pound edge.. just like Barkevious Mingo.

These guys are NOT better than people we already have on our roster.

 

Those draft picks are 4-year contracts.. which is more useful than trading for someone who's no different than one of the several guys we're already over.  50 is the Mendoza line, not hard.

 

8 hours ago, hx214 said:

I'll double down right now, make the playoffs

You'll double down right now on players who are no different than the ones you want to bench, FAIL TO make the playoffs, and leave the franchise with no resources to acquire either starters or actual quality depth.  FA moves do fail - ask Albert Haynesworth.

If you want to assume a random barely-a-starter inhales pixie dust when he walks through the doors at Berea [and parties with Johnny Football] which results in him becoming Luke Kuechly for the next 8 games, go right ahead. I, however, don't believe in santa claus any more.

8 hours ago, hx214 said:

OR save for a future that is unknown

The success of the trades you propose is MORE unknown -- because except for King, we actually do know the players you're targeting perform no better than the ones already on the Browns roster.. and they've been the same player for several years.

 

If you seriously aren't interested in looking at the actual talent of players you want to sign, just offer the vet minimum who aren't on a roster anywhere. They'll cost less.. and your goal of Making Random Moves For The Sake Of Brownian Motion will be achieved!

Life is hard - there is no sure thing.

An example of a better LB to replace mack wilson would be... jacob phillips who was still out injured vs LV but will [I hope] play serious minutes after the bye.  Note, of course, that Phillips is outperforming Williamson this year..

[browns52]

8 hours ago, Flugel said:

The D was leading the entire NFL in turnovers/takeaways for much of the first 7 weeks of the season.   That's a pretty good place to rank #1 in the NFL so I'll take it..  Myles Garrett, who received a healthy contract extension, had a lot to do with causing many of these turnovers.   

We have 8 weeks left - so let's see what happens from here...

 

 

currently the d ranks 19th....so it is not the worse but far from being an elite d....i would have thought it was worse than 19th....they are probably lumped in with the other teams that are 20th thru 25 by give and take a few yds....don't know for sure....

[Tour2ma]

9 hours ago, hx214 said:

Fix the damn holes.

With rentals?

Again... any playoff appearance would be gravy this season. The "fixing" continues in 2021.

8 hours ago, SdBacker80 said:

It wasn’t good last year and it isn’t good this year.  What difference does it make other than were put on notice this offseason and didn’t do enough.  It wasn’t the highest priority - that was fixing the Oline and getting a head coach in place. Both were great priorities don’t get me wrong.

Does anyone truly think the defense was good last year?  We got beat by a QB named “Duck” and we made Mixon look like Sayers. And  Probably the most disgusting display of defense turn on the Cards Browns 2019 game.

So.... we agree?

I honestly can't tell at this point...

[The Gipper]

15 minutes ago, Tour2ma said:

With rentals?  Yes, if necessary....and it seems necessary.    It happens every year by many teams making a playoff run in every sport. 

Again... any playoff appearance would be gravy this season. The "fixing" continues in 2021.

Yes, I love gravy on some things....my team being in the playoffs is one of those things.  And yes, the fixing continues....always and every year until we win multiple back to back Super Bowls.

So.... we agree?

I honestly can't tell at this point...

If you agree with what I have said above, then we agree. 

 

[hx214]

21 minutes ago, Unsympathetic said:

Stop with the revisionist history. This is absolutely not true. The only deal we could/should have done is a 6th for Bolts' Desmond King - now a Chief - who has a 74.0 rating.

And this deal wasn't done because?? Greedy was a second round pick, and it will be a miracle if the guy ever sees the field.  What about the CB play this year has screamed..... Nah! we need a late round pick instead.

24 minutes ago, Unsympathetic said:

Williamson is a 43.2 -- 10 points higher than mack wilson but still lower than rookie LB's.  50 is average.. lower than that is not a good player.  Here's an example of a backup rookie LB rated above 50 on a long contract.

Mack Wilson PFF is 29.1.  He grades out above one linebacker in the NFL.  Elandon Roberts.  I didn't even know grade went that low. 

28 minutes ago, Unsympathetic said:

Ngakoue pulls off a decent pass rush 6 plays a game [and gets a pressure on one of them every other game] - but hasn't cracked 30 on his run defense grade this year.  He's a 245 pound edge.. just like Barkevious Mingo.

Barkevious Mingo was drafted in the first round.  The Ravens just pick up Ngakoue for a 3rd and maybe a 5th.  Has 5 sacks and 2 forced fumbles. THIS ISN"T BETTER THAN WHAT THEY HAVE???  You pulling those numbers out of the 3rd round pick? How about the lack of pass rush they have RIGHT NOW in the middle of a possible playoff season without Garrett's numbers? Vernon playing opposite of Garrett all season (or when he feels like pulling the sand out of his crotch) has a total of 2 sacks, both coming last game with a team trying to throw the ball into 40mph wind. Vernon is also half way out the door. Can't wait to see the 3rd rounder they draft play next to this beast Elliot they drafted in the 3rd this year at DT with 2 whole tackles in 8 games.

 

39 minutes ago, Unsympathetic said:

Those draft picks are 4-year contracts.. which is more useful than trading for someone who's no different than one of the several guys we're already over.  50 is the Mendoza line, not hard.

Must be pretty hard, looking at this so called Medoza line, not seeing many of these draft picks leaping over it. Jesus, the best Linebacker grade the team has is Goodson who they picked up out of the back of an Arby's. So your saying they should value developing future guys like Taki Taki who looks like a lost kid playing in a man's game (watching this guy miss tackles behind the line is teeth grinding) Or Mack Wilson because they have them for four years in a season where you can make a playoff run based on the schedule in front of them? How is this "More Useful?" Nah. Taki Taki 2.0's pick can go to someone that can at least get a defense to punt once a game and you can sign some undrafted kid for the same production value/money. I'll make the playoffs and have chance to win with a decent defense this year for the first time is a decade and find some road apple LB to fill the spot next year.

56 minutes ago, Unsympathetic said:

You'll double down right now on players who are no different than the ones you want to bench, FAIL TO make the playoffs, and leave the franchise with no resources to acquire either starters or actual quality depth.  FA moves do fail - ask Albert Haynesworth.

Yep. After watching that Raiders/Bengals games the last two weeks, and looking at the defense being 30th in the league in points allowed only behind two teams that are trying to tank, I'm all set. They got their offense 6 total possessions last game in a 40 mph wind when they KNEW the offense was running the ball and still couldn't stop them. I'm pushing to make the playoffs this year, but it's always "Wait till next year" then they shit the bed and reboot.   FA moves Fail? No way! How about a decade of draft picks? We have seen that first hand.. I'd list all the Browns failed picks vs hits but their is a text limit on this thing. 

 

1 hour ago, Unsympathetic said:

The success of the trades you propose is MORE unknown -- because except for King, we actually do know the players you're targeting perform no better than the ones already on the Browns roster.. and they've been the same player for several years.

Unless they traded for LB Elandon Roberts, how is that possible?  Sendejo grades out at 41.5. Stellar! Throw a dart at the board and upgrade. Good forbid Delphi is Greedy 2.0.

1 hour ago, Unsympathetic said:

If you seriously aren't interested in looking at the actual talent of players you want to sign, just offer the vet minimum who aren't on a roster anywhere.

??? What are you talking about.... Upgrading garbage talent to usable talent with low draft picks to make a playoff run isn't exactly mortgaging the farm of this storied franchise with fantastic luck in the draft. Again. the Best linebacker on the damn team was picked up in the fashion you are trying to downplay....

 

1 hour ago, Unsympathetic said:

Life is hard - there is no sure thing

Yep. And there is always next year right?

 

Sashi Brown..... I mean Andrew just threw in the towel on a playoff season that hasn't been seen in these parts since Christ left Pittsburgh and it's all good.  God I forgot how much I hated Sashi Brown.  So excited to watch this defense get dick stomped the rest of the year. 

[Flugel]

47 minutes ago, browns52 said:

currently the d ranks 19th....so it is not the worse but far from being an elite d....i would have thought it was worse than 19th....they are probably lumped in with the other teams that are 20th thru 25 by give and take a few yds....don't know for sure....

It's all about setting realistic expectations for the defense.  I was worried about the LBer Corps.  Meatball on spaghetti, I didn't want to see us lose our 2nd round Safety that won the Thorpe Award for his excellence at defending the pass.  Keep in mind Ronnie Harrison Jr didn't play vrs either AFC North team that rathoused us.  I'm very impressed with him.  We also played Pitt without Karl Joseph.  I've mentioned 3 upgrades at Safety; and when 1 or 2 or all of them are missing - it feels like we're watching watching last year's quality.  For example, we're watching a guy like Senedejo because of injuries.  Harrison had a pick 6 vrs Indy and he's got  a great nose for the ball out there.  He led Jax in tackles last year.  Need his asss.

Now, we know the strength of our defense is the dline.  Myles Garrett's strip sacks are game changers.  Vernon had a couple sacks this last game - if that guy can ever stay healthy here.  Richardson is playing well; and I like Ogunjobi.  I'd like to see the depth play a little better.  Porter Gustin looked relentless the 1st time I saw him; and that seems like it's fizzled some.

I LIKE our Corners too! Ward and Mitchell do a great job IMO.  I said all last year I liked Mitchell better than Greedy; and that hasn't changed.  I think Dorsey-Doe overrated Greedy.  

The LBers.   I did NOT want to lose Schobert when he was playing the type of football hoped for and developed him to be.  Then again, we were able to give Myles Garrett the contract extension to keep Cleveland his home for a while.  The 1 LBer I was most intrigued by was Jacob Phillips and he's injured.  He led the National Champs in tackles last year.

Next offseason, we need to bring in more impact at LBer.  They were tackling shoulder pad high on numerous occasions in the first half in short yardages vrs the Raiders yielding way too many yards after contact. We need to upgrade dline depth.  FA signee DT Andrew Billings would have helped our inside rotation; but he opted not to play this year.

If I expected this roster to be ready to compete with teams like KC or other talent loaded rosters - I wouldn't have predicted 9-7.  I would have predicted 11-5. I didn't see the defensive personnel for us to do that unless NOBODY got injured and I underrated what we had as a LBer Corps.  Neither happened...

 

 

[jiggins7919]

11 hours ago, Flugel said:

We have 8 weeks left - so let's see what happens from here...

That's really all we can do, brother! 

I gotta say, that Raiders game probably irritated me worse than the Baltimore and Pittsburgh games. I can't STAND not being able to get off the field. Our 3rd and especially 4th down numbers are beyond irredeemable and while the offense will be getting healthy soon, the defense won't be getting anyone back. Who we got is who we GOT....and who we got ain't good. 

That 3rd and 18 sums everything up. I knew what was coming. You knew what was coming. Yet our coaches didn't put our players in position to succeed. You had to know they weren't going to throw deep. So what do you do? You tell your DE to stay with the RB, you pull almost everyone up to about 5-8 yards from the LoS, and you make the tackle. It was embarrassing and cost us a chance at getting the ball back to our offense, who only had 6 possessions. 

[Flugel]

11 hours ago, jiggins7919 said:

That's really all we can do, brother! 

I gotta say, that Raiders game probably irritated me worse than the Baltimore and Pittsburgh games. I can't STAND not being able to get off the field. Our 3rd and especially 4th down numbers are beyond irredeemable and while the offense will be getting healthy soon, the defense won't be getting anyone back. Who we got is who we GOT....and who we got ain't good. 

That 3rd and 18 sums everything up. I knew what was coming. You knew what was coming. Yet our coaches didn't put our players in position to succeed. You had to know they weren't going to throw deep. So what do you do? You tell your DE to stay with the RB, you pull almost everyone up to about 5-8 yards from the LoS, and you make the tackle. It was embarrassing and cost us a chance at getting the ball back to our offense, who only had 6 possessions. 

Yeah, that gets frustrating when you can't get off the field.  The Raiders also missed a FG so the score looked closer than the time of possession reality.  Our offense didn't help our defense out either with 6 points or very much rest between series.  When your defense gets tired, their pad heights get too high and they give up those types of plays you speak of.  

[jiggins7919]

1 hour ago, Flugel said:

Yeah, that gets frustrating when you can't get off the field.  The Raiders also missed a FG so the score looked closer than the time of possession reality.  Our offense didn't help our defense out either with 6 points or very much rest between series.  When your defense gets tired, their pad heights get too high and they give up those types of plays you speak of.  

Yep, so true. And a lot of it comes down to drops. Jarvis almost killed us against Indy with two massive 3rd down drops at the 50, and then he can't secure the ball on the TD throw that would have given us the lead and changed the dynamics of the Raiders game. I don't get it with him. He's been dropping way too many balls, and even when he DOES catch it, it's not clean

Remember against Dallas and Baker nailed him for a crucial 3rd down? Landry caught it, but only after bobbling it. He's done that multiple times this year and I don't know what's going on. Our margin of error is so tiny and we just aren't good enough yet to make mistakes like that. 

We're going to be a fun but really stressful team to watch, lol. We're pretty good...but not VERY good, and that means we're never going to blow someone out. Even the Giants, Jets, and Jags are going to give us a difficult time, promise. But hey, it sure beats what we used to be!! 

[Tour2ma]

 

6 hours ago, Flugel said:

The Raiders also missed a FG

As did we...

 

Decent article today on the whole player rental approach... although some of the wording makes you work.

Bottom line I took away is that while a 5th or 6th for an Alexander or a King would have been justified, for a team that is simply vying for a playoff spot and not a Super Bowl to start shipping out 2nds and 3rds simply doesn't make sense.

Quote

This Browns team is still good. Could they use an insane amount of help on defense? Absolutely. Still, unloading high picks when Super Bowl contention seems like a reach just might not be the best thing right now.

Again, if the Browns feel it is necessary to unload and make a blockbuster trade before the deadline, shoot for the stars. This years Browns team is a playoff team, a big reason why not making any trades in a year when competing for a Super Bowl is not likely is normal. Make the playoffs first, where anything can happen. If this still young Browns team gets in, which they should do to their schedule, and they get amped up and the defense wakes up, who knows what could happen in a 60-minute battle.

It is okay to be frustrated and wonder why they aren’t spending a 5th or 6th, but to be frustrated over not spending higher picks or players on potential big-time rentals doesn’t make much sense. Trust Andrew Berry, the Browns future looks promising.

https://dawgpounddaily.com/2020/11/03/cleveland-browns-andrew-berry-quiet/

 

[The Gipper]

36 minutes ago, Tour2ma said:

 

As did we...

 

Decent article today on the whole player rental approach... although some of the wording makes you work.

Bottom line I took away is that while a 5th or 6th for an Alexander or a King would have been justified, for a team that is simply vying for a playoff spot and not a Super Bowl to start shipping out 2nds and 3rds simply doesn't make sense.

 

Well, I agree with that...and I did not advocate shipping out a 2d or 3rd.  I advocated getting help from guys that are out on the street....like an Earl Thomas/Clay Matthews/Eric Reid. 

Look at this list:  there are 5 safeties on the Top 10 best FAs still out there.

https://nfltraderumors.co/top-25-2020-nfl-free-agents-list/

[Tour2ma]

36 minutes ago, Tour2ma said:

Bottom line I took away is that while a 5th or 6th for an Alexander or a King would have been justified, for a team that is simply vying for a playoff spot and not a Super Bowl to start shipping out 2nds and 3rds simply doesn't make sense.

BTW... I don't agree that either Kwon or Desmond would have been a good deal. As I just wrote in another thread...

9 minutes ago, Tour2ma said:

... I still have to say...

• in a few months we can go after any rental of interest in the succeeding UFA market; and
• what season-changing prize have we missed?

On the latter point the two most mentioned names have been Kwon Alexander and Desmond King.

Alexander, while very good, hasn't been available for more than half a season in 3 years.

King is a good, 5'10", slot/nickel CB who had one very good year... two years ago. While he was a FS in college, he has never played FS as a Pro. He appears to lack the speed to do so. So what real need does he fill so well that he makes a difference?

https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/news/pete-priscos-nfl-week-9-picks-patriots-squeak-out-win-over-jets-ravens-hold-off-colts-and-more-predictions/