Going for it on 4th Down

[hoorta]

For your reading enjoyment.  MHO? Man, that's micro managing analytics to get what? A potential couple yards advantage if you kick a FG in the Red Zone instead?  

https://dawgpounddaily.com/2021/10/26/geeks-rule-why-the-browns-stefanski-is-going-for-it-on-fourth-down/

[Bob806]

I get some of the analytics, but I'd rather put points on the board, especially when you're getting outplayed early in a game like vs Arizona

[Orion]

Haven't read it yet, but have thoughts.  Whether it's a good idea or not is predicated by many factors related to what's been happening up to that point in time as well as the exact point in time.  Based on that information, do you have good confidence that you can pick up the needed yardage?  And does confidence in the kicker factor in?

Is it the opening drive of the game?  The last thing I want is to come away with no points.  That's a total downer.  

To me, if I have the ball where a FG can be fairly confidently made, then I need a good reason to take a chance on 4th down.  Do I really need to be doing this?  Am I in a shootout?  Am I falling behind?   And if I'm somewhere near midfield, I'll have to have confidence in my defense.  

Another factor is your QB sneaker.  Tom Brady has always been one of the best QB sneakers.  He's tall, solid and can help move the pile in front of him as well as see lanes to dive into.  Baker is NOT a good QB sneaker.  And there's a much greater than zero chance that he could fumble the ball away in the process.  

Now, if the game's been going, and your OL has been enjoying it's run blocking, and you have Chubb & Hunt, then maybe you wanna go ahead and keep pounding your opponent with 1st downs and shorten the game on them.  But passing up a makeable FG for a sack is something to be guarded against.

Now, I'll go read the article.

[Browns149]

Do they use a league wide calculation? Because there are some teams that are better at 4th down then others

The Browns are in the bottom 3rd at converting 4th down

https://www.teamrankings.com/nfl/stat/fourth-down-conversion-pct

[gumby73]

can't say were fairing well in either.

Cleveland

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               others faced

• 37 / 88
  THIRD DOWN CONVERSIONS
  42 / 93
• 7 / 16
  FOURTH DOWN CONVERSIONS
  6 / 9

[Orion]

OK...I've read the article....and it hasn't persuaded me to like going for it on 4th down as much as we do.

I think that if a coach can tell a QB, "Punting isn't a bad thing."  then a HC can be told "a FG isn't a bad thing."

What if we were to say, Turning the ball over on downs is a turnover by the HC?

[hoorta]

41 minutes ago, Orion said:

OK...I've read the article....and it hasn't persuaded me to like going for it on 4th down as much as we do.

I think that if a coach can tell a QB, "Punting isn't a bad thing."  then a HC can be told "a FG isn't a bad thing."

What if we were to say, Turning the ball over on downs is a turnover by the HC?

Me neither.. But it's a league wide "thing" now. Paralysis by analysis- and I'm thinking they're over analyzing things, to find a microscopic advantage.

[Orion]

34 minutes ago, hoorta said:

to find a microscopic advantage.

...like taking a FG on two drives, as opposed to going for it on 4th down twice and once scoring a TD.

[tiamat63]

The issue I take with the analytics of it is that I'm not sure to what extend it factors in personnel.  

Going for it on 4th and 2 with Aaron Rodgers is significantly different than 4th and 2 with another QB.

[jrb12711]

52 minutes ago, tiamat63 said:

The issue I take with the analytics of it is that I'm not sure to what extend it factors in personnel.  

Going for it on 4th and 2 with Aaron Rodgers is significantly different than 4th and 2 with another QB.

I think we all know what you're getting at here-on these 4th down plays, always put in Case "Mr Automatic" Keenum on 4th down. You can't argue with him being 100% on 4th down conversions while also putting his life on the line.

[Bob806]

59 minutes ago, tiamat63 said:

The issue I take with the analytics of it is that I'm not sure to what extend it factors in personnel.  

Going for it on 4th and 2 with Aaron Rodgers is significantly different than 4th and 2 with another QB.

Yep. And I could be wrong but analytics probably doesn't measure a team's momentum in the game situation....like kicking a FG while down 21-0. 

It used to be "take the points" in road games, for instance. Not sure analytics agrees on that.

[hx214]

It always worked out pretty good for me in Madden. I didn't even bother to keep a punter on my team. 4th and 20.... NO PROBLEM. 

[gumby73]

6 hours ago, jrb12711 said:

-on these 4th down plays, always put in Case "Mr Automatic" Keenum on 4th down. You can't argue with him being 100% on 4th down conversions while also putting his life on the line.

Fair point !

I play board fan, to watch for our recliner coaching fan staff during the play clock running down in game day thread on 4th down. The replies may quickly add up to 8-10 🤓.. Baker's cadence ain't A.Rog'er-ish yet, but Bake seems to have found his knack. plus, I like Kevin's thinking of at least attempting to draw someone offsides.

With Bake's injury though, I like what your cooking up here. but not feeling the fact that teams may load up for it seeing Keenum rolling out there.. I don't need to see Baker splitting eligible either 😱

In fact....I continue to hate the fact that Stef play call sheet, calls that has Baker in some kind of lead blocking assignment.. I crinch at the sight of it  😨

[Orion]

9 hours ago, gumby73 said:

but not feeling the fact that teams may load up for it seeing Keenum rolling out there..

Right.  Say Baker plays this week, and on 4th & 1 you take him out and put in Keenum.  The D will key the QB sneak.  So now what?  Do ya get 'cute' with the play call because You know that They know?  

[Unsympathetic]

Sure, but do they know that you know that they know?  So Stef could do some self-scounting and actually call a run instead of trying the weird stuff this week.