Ghoolie Always Ghoolie Posted February 1, 2023 Author Report Share Posted February 1, 2023 8 hours ago, ballpeen said: I am from Ohio too, but lost that OSU/ Big 10 allegiance decades go. I finished my schooling in Florida and have lived in SE Tennessee for the last 46 years. Between being a Gator and her a Vol, it is what it is. Nothing wrong with that. I have a lot of ole miss, and Alabama pals here. I get invited to house parties and bars. when they don't play.the bucks, I am their comrade. Love of team is universal. I never understood the emotional.hate for opponents. I "hate" Michigan once per year. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Korsou Dawg Posted February 1, 2023 Report Share Posted February 1, 2023 5 hours ago, tiamat63 said: Make no mistake about it - the Iggles are my pick as well. But the spread has moved quite a bit the last few days. Was up to 3, now 1.5. Where the most noticable was the O/U. Opened at 48. Went to 48.5 in 24 hours and now, as of Wednesday at 11am EST, is up to 50. And I fully believe another full point climb is entirely likely. My post was only for a gambling reference. As the Over was, IMO, the safety money to have been made. Now we're staring down the barrel of it being at a key number (51). Even 50.5 makes me hesitate. Those small margins is how Vegas makes a ton of money off people not understanding of the value and power of numbers. The negative ML for Philly has shrunk with the spread, as those tend to do. Last check was -125 down from -135. If it dips -120, -115ish, I'm likely to ride the safer ML pick. I don't believe in much, but I do believe in steady rate of return. Wow! Literally every sentence in that post that contains a number, I literally don't understand a word of. At least your video analyses are (partially) understandable (to me). Suppose "My post was only for a gambling reference" explains it. Other than the odd game of poker, I don't do any gambling. Certainly no sports betting. No opinion there at all, just don't care about it myself. Kudos to you for sharing potentially beneficial analysis with others. And I am with you on that last sentence 100%. That said, I do have an appreciation of the sentiment expressed in the below post as well. 20 hours ago, syd said: ah fuck man I will make a bunch of stupid sucker bets have some drinks and plenty o food 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Flugel Posted February 1, 2023 Report Share Posted February 1, 2023 23 hours ago, tiamat63 said: Something to consider, that I'm working on before placing my bets and as I'm doing my film study. - 35 to DET - 21 to JAX and a fortune play it almost wasn't 30 - 32 to WSH. - 33 to GB. - 34 to DAL (with Dak) The Eagles have a scary season long trend. Allow me to further highlight that. - Amon Ra St Brown, Zay Jones, Christian Kirk, Scary Terry, Curtis Samuel, Christian Watson, Ceedee Lamb. Sure, you can say that it's difficult to cover good receivers. But Philly has struggled to deal with even competent, or up and down passing attacks since week 1. Exception being Minnesota. Beyond that they've faced Indy, HOU, PIT, TEN, CHI and NO. Not exactly a gauntlet of secondary testing games. They didn't surrender much to TE's though. Dalton Schultz, Cole Kmet, Friermuth... All had pretty average days. Unlike those guys though, Kelce isn't your typical tight end. And Andy Reid's ability to move him far away from the traditional inline Y, much like what they showed against Cincy, speaks to matchup issues. I think Philly is the more complete team that can force Coach Spaggs hand defensively. But if Mahomes' ankle is better, then MVS and JuJu show up ... Philly might not walk away so easily. At the moment, the Over around 48.5 looks solid. Interesting points - Thanks! I think Philly is complete too! Their offense actually has a perfect RPO system for the QB, running game, passing game and OL. It's a design where some plays build off/set-up other plays. It also Matches the talent of its personnel. If you look at their personnel on defense, their FO understands what our 2 Harvard FO guys seem to be incapable of. The sad part of that is Berry actually worked for the Eagles under Executive VP/General Manager Howie Roseman. I'll stop with my impatience. One thing some people probably don't realize is Philly lost 2 former 1st round DEs to IR - Derek Barnett and Robert Quinn (who is now questionable for the Super Bowl). They also lost this year's 1st round pick DT/NT Jordan Davis for a while, midway through the season, with a high ankle sprain after getting off to a good start. He didn't look as effective as he was before the injury. The good news for Philly was they were able to sign DT Ndamukong Suh on November 17th for the rest of the season and the playoffs. Sic em, sock em and sack em!!!! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mjp28 Posted February 3, 2023 Report Share Posted February 3, 2023 On 2/1/2023 at 11:07 AM, tiamat63 said: Make no mistake about it - the Iggles are my pick as well. But the spread has moved quite a bit the last few days. Was up to 3, now 1.5. Where the most noticable was the O/U. Opened at 48. Went to 48.5 in 24 hours and now, as of Wednesday at 11am EST, is up to 50. And I fully believe another full point climb is entirely likely. My post was only for a gambling reference. As the Over was, IMO, the safety money to have been made. Now we're staring down the barrel of it being at a key number (51). Even 50.5 makes me hesitate. Those small margins is how Vegas makes a ton of money off people not understanding of the value and power of numbers. The negative ML for Philly has shrunk with the spread, as those tend to do. Last check was -125 down from -135. If it dips -120, -115ish, I'm likely to ride the safer ML pick. I don't believe in much, but I do believe in steady rate of return. Oh yes, the right way to do it ! When I was really into betting from 1969 starting working in the steel mills in Youngstown, Ohio until around 2010 +/- when I started cutting back to more of a casual wagering system requiring much less work. Why ? I went from a serious bettor to just a fun hobby I was just tired of the grind and time to what I do now. AND so many state lotteries in there now, I'm in 3 every drawing..... have done ok, hit a few big ones. Just not Mega good .... yet. I'm always in pickems, Survival, FLs and all that here plus some good and fun occasional bets including my dumb sucker bets BUT I'm an old experienced bettor, it's just easier now. Back in my serious days I knew every stat out there, now I use different keys to good picks, especially college football WAY easier than the pros. And I love to win, baby ! That's why you do it ..... just don't be stupid about it. 😉 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
syd Posted February 3, 2023 Report Share Posted February 3, 2023 😋 22 hours ago, mjp28 said: just don't be stupid about it. 😉 I was I followed one of your bets I saw on here thanks MJP 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ballpeen Posted February 4, 2023 Report Share Posted February 4, 2023 Keep it in the realm of entertainment dollars. If you do that, you are fine. People get in to trouble when they try to win back their money. You can never win back your money. You can only win house money, and the odds are in favor of the house. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nickers Posted February 4, 2023 Report Share Posted February 4, 2023 31 minutes ago, ballpeen said: Keep it in the realm of entertainment dollars. If you do that, you are fine. People get in to trouble when they try to win back their money. You can never win back your money. You can only win house money, and the odds are in favor of the house. Herein is the reason I don't gamble..... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ballpeen Posted February 4, 2023 Report Share Posted February 4, 2023 57 minutes ago, nickers said: Herein is the reason I don't gamble..... A good reason. You have to do what you find comfortable. We have been to Las Vegas maybe 25 times over the years. We go mostly for the shows in town, but we do spend some in the casinos. I just build in the money I feel I can lose and take it from there. If we bust out, we bust out. Game over. Even then we rarely do. We have had a few "big" trips, but in the end we usually end up down about 60%, which I consider a win since we budgeted more for the entertainment of gambling. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mjp28 Posted February 4, 2023 Report Share Posted February 4, 2023 Oh yes ! It's 3 am and I woke up and I'm on TBB ..... again. Why not it's just our entertainment of sorts. Why not. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nickers Posted February 4, 2023 Report Share Posted February 4, 2023 4 hours ago, ballpeen said: A good reason. You have to do what you find comfortable. We have been to Las Vegas maybe 25 times over the years. We go mostly for the shows in town, but we do spend some in the casinos. I just build in the money I feel I can lose and take it from there. If we bust out, we bust out. Game over. Even then we rarely do. We have had a few "big" trips, but in the end we usually end up down about 60%, which I consider a win since we budgeted more for the entertainment of gambling. I did slots up in Windsor many years ago... But I'm not fiscally capable of just randomly blowing away money... 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ballpeen Posted February 4, 2023 Report Share Posted February 4, 2023 I understand. Like I said, one has to be comfortable with the idea. I certainly don't consider myself a gambler. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
syd Posted February 4, 2023 Report Share Posted February 4, 2023 17 hours ago, ballpeen said: Keep it in the realm of entertainment dollars. If you do that, you are fine. People get in to trouble when they try to win back their money. You can never win back your money. You can only win house money, and the odds are in favor of the house. i have scene some of those people in the casino and i'm like those poor fucks must suck to be you good luck with your flight home Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
syd Posted February 4, 2023 Report Share Posted February 4, 2023 11 hours ago, nickers said: I did slots up in Windsor many years ago... But I'm not fiscally capable of just randomly blowing away money... fuck man nothing like being in a sportsbook when most of the crowd had bet on the same team it's fucking electric 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
syd Posted February 7, 2023 Report Share Posted February 7, 2023 go browns 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MLD Woody Posted February 9, 2023 Report Share Posted February 9, 2023 On 2/1/2023 at 7:06 AM, Dutch Oven said: Was coming here to post this Really applies to most of this board 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nickers Posted February 9, 2023 Report Share Posted February 9, 2023 10 minutes ago, MLD Woody said: Was coming here to post this Really applies to most of this board 🖕 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mjp28 Posted February 9, 2023 Report Share Posted February 9, 2023 On 2/4/2023 at 4:39 AM, nickers said: I did slots up in Windsor many years ago... But I'm not fiscally capable of just randomly blowing away money... We did the same thing back in the early 1980s just before we got married in 1981. (going on 42 years now) Only we took a bus trip from Ohio to "AC baby" Atlantic City I'd never been there turned out to be a fun little trip. My wife played the slots very carefully in every casino we went into, in one she found a wrapper of $6.75 in quarters and kept it all. If I found it they would have been gone in the next 3 machines I saw $3.25. In each one big pull. I wasn't that much into slots, i was BIG into craps and roulette some in 21 or poker. It was a fun trip, eating breakfast on the boardwalk a skillet bf with whatever you want very reasonable. Just before we left I was playing roulette early afternoon on $5 minimum tables, doing OK went up to our room ..... back to the same table put $5 each on my numbers 17 and 28 then the rather grumpy croupier said ...... " sir this is a $10 table "........ oh now what 17 or 28 ? So I put $10 on 17 .... the spin ..... 17 ..... $10 x 35 = $350. Oh the bus trip + room (1980) was $350 it paid for our AAA savers road trip. The fun trip just got a little bit mo' fun ! You can't beat windfall money ..... or good ol' luck. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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