What's wrong with Derek Carr?

[PoeticG]

Yes, I just found this thread! I can't believe I missed this whole discussion. Damn, must have been when I my job was working my dick off. Very good points in here in favor of Derek Carr.

I think he is THE GUY. Easily the best QB coming out this year. Here is an interesting article leading up to the Senior Bowl.

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http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap2000000313921/article/derek-carr-seeking-to-regain-momentum-at-senior-bowl

Derek Carr seeking to regain momentum at Senior Bowl

By Dan Greenspan
College Football 24/7 writer
Published: Jan. 15, 2014 at 05:59 p.m.
Updated: Jan. 15, 2014 at 06:11 p.m.


AP Photo/Gregory Bull
Fresno State QB Derek Carr is looking forward to the opportunity to show off his potential at the 2014 Senior Bowl.


Whatever momentum Fresno State quarterback Derek Carr had going into the 2014 NFL Draft was undone by the USC defense in the Las Vegas Bowl. Now Carr is hoping to get it back at the Reese's Senior Bowl next week.

"My No. 1 goal is to go there and show people who I am, show them that No. 1 is my faith, No. 2 is my family and my friends, and No. 3 is football and I take my job very serious. Hopefully I'll find a team that feels the same way and falls in love with me," Carr told the College Football 24/7 podcast.

Despite throwing for an FBS-best 5,083 yards and 50 touchdowns as a senior, it was the struggles against the Trojans' talented front seven -- one Carr labeled "the best we played against" this season -- that raised concerns about his pocket presence.

Carr was 30-of-54 passing for 217 yards, two touchdowns and one interception in the 45-20 loss, a last impression that knocked him well behind Teddy Twatwater, Johnny Manziel and Blake Bortles among quarterbacks available in the draft.

2014 NFL Draft

NFL Media analyst Daniel Jeremiah has a second-round grade on Carr. Bucky Brooks said scouts are "fascinated by his natural arm talent, his gunslinger mentality and his production," but sees the Senior Bowl as the proving ground that will play a significant role in determining Carr's stock.

"If he goes down to Mobile, if he lights it up and performs well in practices and in the game, I think he certainly can jump back in the conversation as one of those top guys," Brooks said.

Said Jeremiah: "That's why you go to the Senior Bowl if you're a guy like Derek Carr. You go there and you got a chance to really help yourself."

That is especially true with AJ McCarron, one of the other signal-callers currently in the second tier with Carr, bypassing the Senior Bowl after a similarly dismal bowl performance.

But Carr is aiming higher, expressing no doubts he can match Bridgewater, Manziel and Bortles in the classroom and on the field. As for the concerns and questions about his game that make the Senior Bowl so critical, Carr is glad to hear them.

"I hope they nitpick a lot because I want to be the best to ever do it, with respect to everyone who has ever played the position," Carr said.

[LBC mike]

I would not mind getting carr with our second pick and Watkins with our first.

[Tim Couch Pulls Out]

The fact that POG is on the Carr bandwagon only validates my opinion.

 

 

He's a bust and POG is an idiot.

[D Bone]

The fact that POG is on the Carr bandwagon only validates my opinion.

 

 

He's a bust and POG is an idiot.

 

Yep, that puts the nail in Trent's, I mean Carr's coffin.

[bringbackbrownie2]

The Browns should hire POG so they know who not to draft..

[Suomi]

Scenario A

Raiders trade up to #1 and pick Manziel

Vikings trade up to #2 and pick Bortles

Jaguars pick Bridgewater

Browns...?

 

...pick Sammy Watkins at #4, and trade up into the #14-20 range using their pick at #26 and a 3rd or 4th and draft Carr.

 

Is that so bad?

 

 

Or, Scenario B:

First 4 picks in the round go the same way as in Scenario A (Watkins)

Browns go CB with pick #26

Browns go OG with pick in 2nd

Browns go RB and ILB in 3rd

Browns go developmental QB in 4th (Garappolo, Brett Smith, McCarron, Fales...)

...

Profit...or disaster?

[LBC mike]

Why is everyon down on Carr?

[bbedward]

What makes everyone so sure Hoyer's knee is gonna be good enough for him to be ready by the start of next season?

Most people are only about 80% at the 1yr mark after ACL surgery(Excluding AP of course)

 

This notion that both Hoyer and Lewis will be ready to go next September is pie in the sky

I hope the powers that be plan to be more prepared at QB & RB next august than they are right now!

Hoyer only had a partial tear. He didn't completely shred his knee.

[miktoxic]

just cuz carr's brother sucked doesn't mean he will.

 

he threw for a ton of yards in that conference. i'd take him with our second overall pick, or his nemesis in fales in the 3rd. that was a great game to watch. both QBs throwing for over 400 yards with no defense to stop anybody.

 

manziel did the same thing with his god-awful D. score more points. but like i said in an earlier post, a lot of GMs are being scared away from these read option guys considering they're putting their 23 million dollar investment on the field with the ambulance doors wide open and the ER team standing by.

 

carr is a prototypical pocket passer. but i think we'll land bortles @4.

[gftChris]

Scenario A

Raiders trade up to #1 and pick Manziel

Vikings trade up to #2 and pick Bortles

Jaguars pick Bridgewater

Browns...?

 

...pick Sammy Watkins at #4, and trade up into the #14-20 range using their pick at #26 and a 3rd or 4th and draft Carr.

 

Is that so bad?

 

 

Or, Scenario B:

First 4 picks in the round go the same way as in Scenario A (Watkins)

Browns go CB with pick #26

Browns go OG with pick in 2nd

Browns go RB and ILB in 3rd

Browns go developmental QB in 4th (Garappolo, Brett Smith, McCarron, Fales...)

...

Profit...or disaster?

I'd be happy with scenario B. I'll even state the picks for you:

 

1a - watkins

1b - Gilbert

2 - Richardson

3a - Skov

3b - Hyde? Might not be here.

4a - Garoppolo

4b - Smallwood

[LogicIsForSquares]

Pretty bad under pressure. Faced inferior competition. Not great in fourth quarter. Third of his passes were screens, a lot of his yardage was YAC. System QB.

 

After actually watching him, that's my take.

This. He looked pretty terrible against USC, the only team worth a squirt of piss that they played all year.

[bbedward]

Nothing is wrong with Derek Carr if we get Sammy Watkins.

[Shep]

You don't draft a WR to make your QB position better. You actually draft the QB. Teams have tried... a lot, in fact. It's wagging the dog. The Browns won't be waiting for Garroppolo or Fales to draft their QB in a QB league. Not a prayer.

 

It's Manziel, Bridgewater, or Bortles. That's the discussion. No team with a clear-cut #1 WR is going to draft another in the top 5 unless his name is Matt Millen. That's absurd. You can't get a return on that investment from a #2 WR (especially with an All Pro TE taking a lot of looks, too).

 

Horrible idea.

[thenew23]

I still like Carr. He is a smart QB and is probably the purest pocket passer in the draft. He has prototypical size, and great touch on his passes. Needs to improve his footwork. He does get rattled in the pocket which reminds me of Weeden, so that is a major concern, but he is younger and can move around. I'd take him at 26 if he fell, but I'm pretty sure we'll be drafting Bridgewater or Bortles at 4, so it's probably a moot point...

[miktoxic]

You don't draft a WR to make your QB position better. You actually draft the QB. Teams have tried... a lot, in fact. It's wagging the dog. The Browns won't be waiting for Garroppolo or Fales to draft their QB in a QB league. Not a prayer.

 

It's Manziel, Bridgewater, or Bortles. That's the discussion. No team with a clear-cut #1 WR is going to draft another in the top 5 unless his name is Matt Millen. That's absurd. You can't get a return on that investment from a #2 WR (especially with an All Pro TE taking a lot of looks, too).

 

Horrible idea.

dude i can't give you anymore slack. you are just one god-awful QB loving queef.

 

QB/passing league. really?

 

put up the stats right now with the teams left in the playoffs and how they won that you can say that this is a QB pass-happy league.

 

show me. show me right now!

[sig570]

You don't draft a WR to make your QB position better. You actually draft the QB. Teams have tried... a lot, in fact. It's wagging the dog. The Browns won't be waiting for Garroppolo or Fales to draft their QB in a QB league. Not a prayer.

 

It's Manziel, Bridgewater, or Bortles. That's the discussion. No team with a clear-cut #1 WR is going to draft another in the top 5 unless his name is Matt Millen. That's absurd. You can't get a return on that investment from a #2 WR (especially with an All Pro TE taking a lot of looks, too).

 

Horrible idea.

 

you do know that Gordon is one mistake away from a year suspension. watkins would be the insurance policy for that doomsday scenario.

[bbedward]

I don't think there's any rules against having more than one good receiver.

[tml1138]

I was curious enough to look, as the Broncos stick out in my mind that they are only in the final four due to offense (i.e. P Manning). Just touching the surface of stats, we have:

 

Broncos rated #1 overall offense, by YPG for the regular season (#1 in passing YPG): http://www.nfl.com/stats/team?seasonId=2013&seasonType=REG&Submit=Go

 

P Manning threw 300+ yds for all games in the regular season but two (but still well past the 250+ mark). One of those they lost to Chargers 20-27, the other was a win against the Raiders, 34-14. The Broncos scored 30+ points in all their games except three. Two against Rivers and the Chargers, in which one they won 28-20 and the other they lost 20-27. The third game under 30 points was their win against the Chiefs 27-17.

 

They only lost three games. Aside from the Chargers game I mentioned above, the two other games were against Luck and the Colts, 33-39 and Brady and the Patriots, 31-34. http://www.nfl.com/teams/schedule?team=DEN

 

Yet they are nowhere to be found in the top 5 defenses this year in the regular season. They never held a team to single digit scores this season. Not one. And only four games did they hold their opponents to less than 20.

 

When we get to postseason, things change some. But they did only play one game as they had a bye. They are #1 overall in defense YPG (#4 in passing and #1 in rushing YPG): http://www.nfl.com/stats/team?seasonId=2013&seasonType=POST&Submit=Go

 

Interestingly they are not in the top 5 for offense at all in the postseason. Again this is only one game, vs the Chargers, which they won 24-17 and Peyton threw for under 300 yards again, at 230 total, his lowest for the entire season.

 

Ok I've run out of time to look up the other three right now, but this one I think is going to be the unique one where strong offense has clearly gotten the Broncos where they are today. IMO: what this means is you need a Peyton Fucking Manning caliber QB if you want to get far on the offense side of the ball and with average to less-than-elite defense at best. And probably none of the QBs coming out of this draft are going to be the next P Manning.

 

The remaining final four teams I believe the findings will be this in a nutshell:

 

Patriots: Tom Brady/Bill Belichick, 'nuff said. Their offense nor defense is listed as a top 5 by YPG in regular season. Postseason they are #5 overall offense and #1 in rushing offense YPG.

 

49ers/Seahawks: Defense defense defense. Seahawks #1 overall D and #1 in passing D YPG. 49ers are #5 overall and #4 in rushing D YPG.

[tml1138]

One more thing I noticed, in regards to top DEF's. Panthers, Bengals, and Saints are the other teams in the top 5. So why are they out already?

 

Bengals lost in playoffs because you still have to have a servicable offense/QB at minimum. Dalton is not even that.

Saints D is up there thanks to Rob Ryan, and Brees is obviously elite but couldn't get past the Seahawks crazy good D.

Panthers, I think, it's probably because Cam Newton is still young and learning. And they got knocked out by a solid 49er defense.

 

I heard Kaepernick has been struggling all season but I've not looked up his stats yet to see what's going on. So again a solid D is probably to thank for where they are today. (That and good 'ol Phil. Lol.)

[cdl15]

Because I am sick of drafting good college Qbs just to come here and.....https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fyhFdGPb5pA&feature=youtube_gdata_player

[miktoxic]

Ok I've run out of time to look up the other three right now, but this one I think is going to be the unique one where strong offense has clearly gotten the Broncos where they are today. IMO: what this means is you need a Peyton Fucking Manning caliber QB if you want to get far on the offense side of the ball and with average to less-than-elite defense at best. And probably none of the QBs coming out of this draft are going to be the next P Manning.

 

 

thank you.

 

and yes people can run around and throw for 1k yds every game. come to cleveland or seattle w/o a running game in january and see how far you go.

 

and yes DEFENSES WIN CHAMPIONSHIPS you stoopid muther fuckers.

[thenew23]

dude i can't give you anymore slack. you are just one god-awful QB loving queef.

 

QB/passing league. really?

 

put up the stats right now with the teams left in the playoffs and how they won that you can say that this is a QB pass-happy league.

 

show me. show me right now!

Here are stats... not sure what they mean...

 

Of the 12 teams that made the playoffs...

12 out of 12 ranked in the top 16 in "Team Passer Rating" (4 out of 4 remaining, obviously)

11 of the 12 ranked in the top 16 in Points Per Game on offense (4 out of 4 remaining, all top 11)

9 of the 12 ranked in the top 16 in Points allowed Per game on defense (3 out of 4 remaining)

 

7 of the 12 teams ranked in the top 16 in "Team Passing yards per game" (2 out of remaining 4)

10 of the 12 teams ranked in the top 16 in "Team Passing TDs" (3 out of 4 remaining)

9 of the 12 ranked in the top 16 in "Yards per pass attempt" (3 out of 4 remaining)

 

9 of the 12 teams ranked in the top 16 in "Team Rushing Yards per Game" (4 out of 4 remaining)

10 of the 12 teams ranked in the top 16 in "Team Rusing TDs" (4 out of 4 remaining)

8 of the 12 teams ranked in the top 16 in "Team Rusing Yards per attempt" (3 out of 4 remaining)

 

Looks to me like QB efficiency, balance on offense, and scoring points are key... wow, what a concept... unfortunately the Browns did none of those 3 things last year...

[miktoxic]

 

Here are stats... not sure what they mean...

 

Of the 12 teams that made the playoffs...

12 out of 12 ranked in the top 16 in "Team Passer Rating" (4 out of 4 remaining, obviously)

11 of the 12 ranked in the top 16 in Points Per Game on offense (4 out of 4 remaining, all top 11)

9 of the 12 ranked in the top 16 in Points allowed Per game on defense (3 out of 4 remaining)

 

7 of the 12 teams ranked in the top 16 in "Team Passing yards per game" (2 out of remaining 4)

10 of the 12 teams ranked in the top 16 in "Team Passing TDs" (3 out of 4 remaining)

9 of the 12 ranked in the top 16 in "Yards per pass attempt" (3 out of 4 remaining)

 

9 of the 12 teams ranked in the top 16 in "Team Rushing Yards per Game" (4 out of 4 remaining)

10 of the 12 teams ranked in the top 16 in "Team Rusing TDs" (4 out of 4 remaining)

8 of the 12 teams ranked in the top 16 in "Team Rusing Yards per attempt" (3 out of 4 remaining)

 

Looks to me like QB efficiency, balance on offense, and scoring points are key... wow, what a concept... unfortunately the Browns did none of those 3 things last year...

 

 

thanks for putting that together.

 

yes of course you need to be able to throw the ball and that's fine and dandy in oct and nov but when you got homefield advantage on a LAKE where the winds are whipping up to 40mph gusts and the snow is falling sideways......you better have a running game.

 

and the stats that i was talking about is what these last four teams did in their last playoff games in rushing vs. passing to win. those are the stats i want to see.

[Zombo]

You need to throw the ball to make the playoffs. Then you have 12 great passing teams that throw the ball very well and the best/hottest defense wins out.

 

Z

[miktoxic]

You need to throw the ball to make the playoffs. Then you have 12 great passing teams that throw the ball very well and the best/hottest defense wins out.

 

Z

the best BALANCED offense with a great defense.

[Zombo]

the best BALANCED offense with a great defense.

Correct ... Anybody remember Lagarette Blount a month ago ... He is a BIG part of NE getting to the SB.

 

Timmy Smith was another postseason sensation. Gotta run in January.

 

Z

[thenew23]

 

thanks for putting that together.

 

yes of course you need to be able to throw the ball and that's fine and dandy in oct and nov but when you got homefield advantage on a LAKE where the winds are whipping up to 40mph gusts and the snow is falling sideways......you better have a running game.

 

and the stats that i was talking about is what these last four teams did in their last playoff games in rushing vs. passing to win. those are the stats i want to see.

The post-season is different b/c it is so based on match ups and game planning, but here we go...

 

New England - Facing a team with 42 sacks during the season, and giving up only 232 passing yds/game, they decided to exploit the #26 ranked run D. They started on the ground and stayed on the ground for 234 yds and 6 TDs, so they only needed 198 yds from Brady to shut it down... That plan worked out very well as they dominated in TOP 35min - 25min. Combine that with 4 INTs on D, and you got yourself an easy W

 

Denver - Controlled the clock. Combination of rushing for 133 yds and 1 TD, throwing for 230 and 2 TDs, 26 first downs including 9/13 on 3rd down. Denver played the ultimate balanced offense the entire game, taking advantage of what the D was giving them and moving the chains while calling a 36:34 pass:run ratio throughout the game. Their game plan led to a TOP domination of 35:30 - 24:30. San Diego finished 29th against the pass during the season, which Manning was able to exploit the entire game.

 

Seattle - Being "outeverythinged" except rushing yds where they were able to rush for 174 yds and 2 TDs, and only threw for 103 yds. The D was able to force the Saints to be one-dimensional where they called a 44:26 pass to run ratio. Brees had a good game going for 309 and 1 TD, but needed an excellent game, and more balanced play calling to pull this one off.

 

San Francisco - They beat GB by rushing 30 times for 167 yds and 1 TD. I doubt it was Kaep's passing game, 227 yds, 1 TD, and 1 INT, that won this one. Against, Carolina it was pure D, forcing 2 turnovers and getting 3 redzone stops. They finished that game passing for 196 and 1 TD while rushing for 126 and 1 TD.

[Tim Couch Pulls Out]

 

thanks for putting that together.

 

yes of course you need to be able to throw the ball and that's fine and dandy in oct and nov but when you got homefield advantage on a LAKE where the winds are whipping up to 40mph gusts and the snow is falling sideways......you better have a running game.

 

and the stats that i was talking about is what these last four teams did in their last playoff games in rushing vs. passing to win. those are the stats i want to see.

Yes. The stats from one game on the season outweigh the season averages. How could be so blind?

 

Considering as a Super Bowl will never be played in Cleveland and getting home field advantage throughout the playoffs is something the Browns haven't done in 28 years, I think worrying about how a QB plays in Cleveland in January is putting the cart before the horse.

 

How about we focus on making it to the postseason before we start worrying about how well our QB plays at home in January?

 

I swear, it's like some of you don't even want to see the Browns win.

[LondonBrown]

Spot on^

[thenew23]

Just for fun... or torture...

 

Of the 12 teams that made the playoffs...

12 out of 12 ranked in the top 16 in "Team Passer Rating" Browns ranked 25th

11 of the 12 ranked in the top 16 in Points Per Game on offense Browns ranked 27th

9 of the 12 ranked in the top 16 in Points allowed Per game on defense Browns ranked 23rd

 

7 of the 12 teams ranked in the top 16 in "Team Passing yards per game" Browns ranked 11th

10 of the 12 teams ranked in the top 16 in "Team Passing TDs" Browns ranked 11th

9 of the 12 ranked in the top 16 in "Yards per pass attempt" Browns ranked 29th

 

9 of the 12 teams ranked in the top 16 in "Team Rushing Yards per Game" Browns ranked 27th

10 of the 12 teams ranked in the top 16 in "Team Rusing TDs" Browns ranked 32nd

8 of the 12 teams ranked in the top 16 in "Team Rushing Yards per attempt" Browns ranked 23rd