Trump to meet with Mexican president today, before immigration speech

[Clevfan4life]

He's has a few good weeks now, with a lot of good speeches.

he's stuck his nose where it dont beling twice in the last week

[bbedward]

he's stuck his nose where it dont beling twice in the last week

You're all butthurt still because he said African American children had a right to walk to school without the fear of being shot?

[Clevfan4life]

You're all butthurt still because he said African American children had a right to walk to school without the fear of being shot?

 

Politicising wades cousin getting killed has nothing to do with me.

[OldBrownsFan]

Ed and VT will like this:

 

With yet another poll showing Trump closing the gap between himself and Hillary it cannot be denied that the Kellyanne Conway “pivot” is working some magic.

Here’s what a new Fox News poll says:

 

Breaking! NEW Fox News poll has Trump only 2% under Hillary!

Here’s more from Fox News:

The race for the White House has narrowed. A new Fox News Poll finds Donald Trump gaining ground in the head-to-head matchup, despite improvements from Hillary Clinton on top issues.

In addition, this is the first time the poll offers a four-way presidential ballot (it preceded the two-way ballot).

The poll finds Clinton garners 41 percent to Trump’s 39 percent, while Libertarian Gary Johnson receives 9 percent, and Green Party candidate Jill Stein gets 4 percent.

The third-party candidates take more from Clinton than Trump, as she holds a six-point lead in the two-way matchup: 48-42 percent. That’s at the edge of the poll’s margin of error.

[bbedward]

Photo of Trump's victory in November:

 

[VaporTrail]

 

Ed and VT will like this:

 

With yet another poll showing Trump closing the gap between himself and Hillary it cannot be denied that the Kellyanne Conway “pivot” is working some magic.

Here’s what a new Fox News poll says:

 

Breaking! NEW Fox News poll has Trump only 2% under Hillary!

Here’s more from Fox News:

The race for the White House has narrowed. A new Fox News Poll finds Donald Trump gaining ground in the head-to-head matchup, despite improvements from Hillary Clinton on top issues.

In addition, this is the first time the poll offers a four-way presidential ballot (it preceded the two-way ballot).

The poll finds Clinton garners 41 percent to Trump’s 39 percent, while Libertarian Gary Johnson receives 9 percent, and Green Party candidate Jill Stein gets 4 percent.

The third-party candidates take more from Clinton than Trump, as she holds a six-point lead in the two-way matchup: 48-42 percent. That’s at the edge of the poll’s margin of error.

 

 

I'm telling you he absolutely killed it today. 10 bucks says that Scott Adams' next blog talks about how he's neutralized Hillary's most persuasive argument against him.

[bbedward]

Hillary can barely manage to do 10 minute speech a couple times a week.

 

Trump did a California fundraiser, went to Mexico to meet the mexican presidet gave a speech and press conference (something Hillary won't do, then went to Arizona for a long ass immigration speech.

 

All on the same day, while Hillary napped

[The Cysko Kid]

Do any of you trump hating anti wall folks have any idea what the cartels get up to down there? I mean, in theory, you must know they kill people but do you understand the realities of their actions? They make Islamic terrorists beheading people look as gentle as a state sanctioned lethal injection. And...it's all on video it's all out there. And contrary to popular liberal belief they're not just killing other "bad guys". You watch a couple of these videos and I guarantee the wall starts looking like a pretty good idea.

[DieHardBrownsFan]

[Clevfan4life]

My dad watched his speech last nigjt and said he was his old self again. In mexico, came off great.....crosses the border and he's back to shitstarting all the monkeys that come out to see him

[bbedward]

My dad watched his speech last nigjt and said he was his old self again. In mexico, came off great.....crosses the border and he's back to shitstarting all the monkeys that come out to see him

 

 

He gave his most detailed policy speech to date. Pundits were saying perhaps the most detailed policy outline to date this election.

[VaporTrail]

http://blog.dilbert.com/post/149794681371/trumps-immigration-speech-persuasion-score

 

And here's the Scott Adams response.

 

 

 

Trump gave his much-awaited Immigration speech last night. I’ll let the fact-checkers tell you how much of it was based on reality. That’s not my department. I will focus on how persuasive it was, not the politics.

Trump needed to undo the persuasion that Clinton’s side has been laying on the public for months. Specifically, Trump needed to demonstrate that he is…

1. Not crazy.

2. Not uninformed.

3. Not the wrong temperament to lead.

4. Not scary.

5. Not racist.

By my scorecard, Trump achieved all five objectives in the eyes and of his core supporters, and 3-out-of-5 with his opponents. I’ll break it down.

Not Crazy

Trump’s speech did a solid job of connecting the faces of victims to his plan to control the borders. He also made a good argument for protecting jobs. And his call for a wall – which people now understand might include some digital solutions – is sounding expensive but doable. The fact-checkers will, I assume, go crazy on the details of the speech, but from a persuasion perspective, it all made sense. There was no sign of any literal craziness in the speech. That’s a big deal. People needed to see Trump acting not-crazy, and he succeeded. You can hate every part of his immigration plan, but as of today, none of it is irrational or impossible. Trump sold the public on “not crazy.”

Not Uninformed

Trump gave more details on the various components of immigration than I expected to hear. His ten-point plan seemed designed to show his mastery of the details and the specifics of his policies. Generally-speaking, one never wants to have ten points in any presentation. That’s far too much for the audience to digest. The exception is when you are trying to demonstrate the depth of your knowledge. Trump demonstrated presidential-level depth on the topic. He isn’t an expert, but he knows where all the moving parts are. On this key topic, Trump convinced the viewing public that he is informed.

Not the Wrong Temperament to Lead

Trump’s tone for the speech was strident and powerful. But he never frothed at the mouth, and he never spoke from anger. His emotional center for this speech was concern for legal Americans – especially African-Americans – and concern for the immigrants who are victimized trying to get here. Trump’s empathy was largely neutralized by his tone, and by his hard-core policy details, but he did not look like a “hot head” with the wrong temperament. It seemed controlled. I score this a success, but barely.

Not Scary

Trump was scary enough for his core voters, which they interpret as strength and resolve. But as usual, Trump’s tone and his policy details are too scary for many voters on the left. Trump did not make the sale on this dimension, but I’ll tell you later in this post why that was intentional. (It will be obvious after I tell you.)

Not Racist

Trump did a solid job of making the case that his policies are about border control and security, not racism. But facts and logic are not persuasive. Judged by itself, the speech was not persuasive on this dimension. The tone and content provide enough fodder for opponents to form confirmation bias, as they have been all along.

But as luck would have it, Trump met with the president of Mexico that same day, and the two of them got along fine. It seemed clear that the president of Mexico was not treating Trump as a racist. In fact, the President of Mexico even agreed that border control is necessary to reduce victimization of the illegals themselves. If you combine the optics of Trump’s successful trip to Mexico with his strident and scary-sounding speech, it was probably a breakeven situation on the racism dimension. Trump didn’t seem racist yesterday, but it wasn’t enough of a move the needle on its own. I score his effort on this dimension a solid attempt, but not terribly persuasive to his haters. However, if Trump stays on message as well as he did during the speech and the Mexico trip, he has a good chance of making progress on this dimension.

Now let’s talk about Trump’s plan itself.

Persuasion is Part of the Plan

Trump’s approach to immigration is to make border control a priority over deportation. And a big part of that plan involves persuasion. In order to convince would-be illegal immigrants to stay in their own country, you have to make it look like a bad deal to come to America illegally, which is not the case right now. In other words, Trump is focusing on persuasion – the area he knows best.

Realistically, you can’t control the borders with any kind of barrier if the rewards for entering the country illegally are high enough. But if you keep the rewards low, your wall has a good chance of working. Trump knows construction and he knows persuasion. He intelligently combined those talents to create his wall plan.

The problem for Trump – and for the country – is that being hardasses to illegal immigrants violates our national character. These folks are our friends, neighbors, and coworkers. We don’t wish them harm on an individual level. So how can Trump create an immigration policy that addresses the legitimate need for border control with our human need to be kind? It can’t be done.

Unless you are a Master Persuader. Then it’s easy.

Trump needed to soften his immigration stance to sell it to undecided voters while at the same time hardening it for his core supporters. To succeed, he needed to move in two opposite directions at once. Impossible.

So what he did was create a speech that was hardcore and scary in tone and delivery, while leaving an escape hatch in language. In other words, he gave you two opposite and competing messages at the same time. He sent a message of hardening with his tone while sending a message of softening with his words. Pick the one you like.

Trump’s policy softening came to us in the word “priorities.” Trump made it clear that his top priorities for deportation were the “criminal aliens” and the ones who are taking advantage of our social services without adding much to the country.

Trump didn’t mention anything about increasing the budget for deportation. Combine the word “priorities” with an unchanged budget and you get a situation much like today, where the illegal immigrants who are minding their own business and contributing to the country probably get to stay.

The biggest difference between Trump’s plan and Clinton/Obama’s plan is that Trump added persuasion. The “good” illegal immigrants get to stay under either plan – probably – but under Trump’s plan they have to stay here scared and unrewarded. They get no (direct) path to citizenship and no guarantee of staying in the country. In order to discourage new illegal immigration, Trump proposes to keep the good people who are already here in a state of unrewarded worry.

In practical terms, Trump is using persuasion to help seal the border. And given human nature, that feels necessary. People try what they think will work, not what they think will fail.

To put it another way, Trump is shifting the burden of border control from legal American citizens to illegal immigrants, including the “good” ones we might want as our neighbors and friends. You might not like that arrangement, but it isn’t crazy. And it applies an emotional “penalty” to people living here illegally.

The big question for voters is whether Trump’s notion of “priorities,” combined with the reality of budget limits, and the sheer number of illegal immigrants in this country, gets you to a place where the “good” illegal immigrants are likely to be left alone. Trump signalled that this would be the case – maybe – because those decisions would be deferred until the border is secure. That will take years.

And once the border is physically secure, you can back off on the persuasion angle a little. That means the path will someday be clear – maybe in ten years – to revisit the status of illegals who have been good Americans in spirit.

And that’s how a Master Persuader runs in two directions at the same time. It was masterfully done. I give Trump’s speech an A+ for persuasion. Trump won the week. His poll numbers should move up again next week.

Also, Trump stuck the landing by engineering what I call the reverse-Khan. He surrounded himself with the families of victims of illegal immigrants so that any criticism of his policies will feel uncomfortably close to insulting those grieving families.

[bbedward]

The reverse-Khan lol, that's hilarious how well that worked.

 

Won't get 10% of the coverage of the real Khan though.

[Tour2ma]

VT, you know you can shrink the font size, don't you?

 

1. He got the Mexican president to call him a friend,
2. say that border security is important for both countries due to guns and money that flows to cartels from the US,
3. and that they're open to renegotiating NAFTA.
4. Pretty big win for Trump today, and he hasn't even given the big speech yet.

1. No... Trump called him "a friend". Nieto never reciprocated. (link to transcript below)
2. Yes.
3. Not exactly... and certainly not based upon Trump's US-centric views. Nieto pointed out the size of the US market in Mexico and the number of American jobs dependent upon that access.
4. ... but then he gave the "big speech".

http://time.com/4475102/donald-trump-enrique-pena-nieto-transcript/

[DieHardBrownsFan]

http://blog.dilbert.com/post/149794681371/trumps-immigration-speech-persuasion-score

 

And here's the Scott Adams response.

 

 

 

[bbedward]

VT, you know you can shrink the font size, don't you?

 

1. No... Trump called him "a friend". Nieto never reciprocated. (link to transcript below)
2. Yes.
3. Not exactly... and certainly not based upon Trump's US-centric views. Nieto pointed out the size of the US market in Mexico and the number of American jobs dependent upon that access.
4. ... but then he gave the "big speech".

http://time.com/4475102/donald-trump-enrique-pena-nieto-transcript/

 

I'm looking forward to sipping some cold texas beers after November 8th.

 

Expect Trump to take the lead in the polls by the end of next week, and never look back.

[bbedward]

Sleeping 15 hours a day and giving 3 10 minute speeches to audiences of 10 people is not going to bring it back for Hillary.

[jrb12711]

 

I'm looking forward to sipping some cold texas beers after November 8th.

 

Expect Trump to take the lead in the polls by the end of next week, and never look back.

 

I would seriously bet you a crisp $20 bill that won't happen in any major respected poll outside of the LA Times. I do actually give kudos to ol' Trump for doing this but (asking seriously here) do you really think it's going to change anyone's mind about the dude? I'll even give you the ones I always look at (and everyone else does too): http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/us/general_election_trump_vs_clinton-5491.html

 

The simple reason Trump is going to lose is the same reason Obama won. Trump surged in the primaries because the minority vote wasn't voting in them. I guarantee just like Obama this population will be in droves and they won't be voting for Trump. I literally don't care anymore, I hate both of these clowns almost equally so I'm not playing favorites. But Trump isn't going to win.

[bbedward]

 

I would seriously bet you a crisp $20 bill that won't happen in any major respected poll outside of the LA Times. I do actually give kudos to ol' Trump for doing this but (asking seriously here) do you really think it's going to change anyone's mind about the dude? I'll even give you the ones I always look at (and everyone else does too): http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/us/general_election_trump_vs_clinton-5491.html

 

The simple reason Trump is going to lose is the same reason Obama won. Trump surged in the primaries because the minority vote wasn't voting in them. I guarantee just like Obama this population will be in droves and they won't be voting for Trump. I literally don't care anymore, I hate both of these clowns almost equally so I'm not playing favorites. But Trump isn't going to win.

Trump is virtually tied in the latest fox poll, who is A rated by 538.

 

But no I won't bet money on poll results, on general election results I would - because Trump is going to win

[jrb12711]

Trump is virtually tied in the latest fox poll, who is A rated by 538.

 

But no I won't bet money on poll results, on general election results I would - because Trump is going to win

 

Literally, and I mean literally, the only reason Trump wins is if Gary Johnson steals enough votes away from Clinton. I just don't possibly see how anyone could see it any other way. That's also the reason the polls are tighter in Fox news anyway because the two-way polls are 48% to 42% for Clinton (which is a lot). The truth is, this isn't an election where people are going to change their minds. People are absolutely 3 categories, I think I saw something like 95% of voters feel there's no way they will change their opinions on who they will vote for.

 

Never Trump-Minorities, young people, older others

Never Clinton-non-minorities, older people, and others

Never Either-me, but a solid 10% or so of the population.

 

 

Again, I don't give a shit who wins because they both suck equally. But people in 2008 and 2012 did not want Obama as President just as badly as they don't want Clinton, and we saw how that went. You want the even simpler version? Until the GOP realizes that old, rich white people are NEVER going to win an election again in America they will always lose. It's that simple.

[Westside Steve]

Wouldn't it stand to reason that Mexico would rather keep their population? Don't you think some sort of compromise would be beneficial to both sides?

And though no one has mentioned it I'm still a fan of the guest worker program. A little cheap labor a little better life same amount of funds being sent back home and a lot more security... What's not to love?

 

WSS

[bbedward]

 

this isn't an election where people are going to change their minds.

 

I feel like this couldn't be further from the truth. And theres a lot of undecideds.

[DieHardBrownsFan]

http://www.helpsavemanassas.org/

[Westside Steve]

 

 

 

 

I feel like this couldn't be further from the truth. And theres a lot of undecideds.

That may be wishful thinking though I hope not. I believe people tend to say they are undecided and thinking about things because it makes them seem more thoughtful than they really are.

You can hear the hypocrisy from those who say that Hillary and hate Trump but are going to vote for her because he is XY or Z. If he softens the XY and Z up it's those same people who started screaming flip flop.

 

WSS

[Westside Steve]

Trump hatred, Hillary hatred and Trump love are going to move the needle. There is no Hillary love as far as I can tell.

 

WSS

[jrb12711]

 

 

 

I feel like this couldn't be further from the truth. And theres a lot of undecideds.

 

 

Literally from the very fox news poll you are clinging to:

 

http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2016/08/31/fox-news-poll-trump-narrows-clintons-lead.html

 

"Plus, almost all non-Clinton supporters (87 percent) say they would “never” consider voting for her, and almost all non-Trump folks say the same about him (85 percent)."

 

so I was off a bit, but that's still damn high. You can live in the world where that's not true if you want, but it is.

[OldBrownsFan]

I wouldn't underestimate just how unpopular Hillary Clinton is:

 

Hillary Is Bombing In Her Signature Demographic

 

Hillary Clinton's "history making" turn as the first female presidential candidate of a major political party (if we discount Victoria Woodhull's candidacy in 1872) hasn't been a home run among one group: women.

 

Poor Hillary. Women in general haven't been as enamored with the glass ceiling as your typical gender studies major feminist. It could be sexism, but it isn't. Disliking Mrs. Clinton has everything to do with the dishonesty rampant in her professional and personal life over many years.

 

The latest ABC News/Washington Post poll, which Dan Spencer discussed here, is abysmal for both candidates, since they rate as two of the most unpopular candidates ever. For Hillary, though, the favorability shift from early to late August among women has been drastic. In early August she polled at 54% favorable and 43% unfavorable among her kind. As of late August her likeability among women had taken a 9 point hit, and had changed to 45% favorable and 52% unfavorable. That's quite a difference, and makes quite a statement, especially when you're celebrated as history-making and all that nonsense.

 

http://www.redstate.com/kimberly_ross/2016/09/01/hillary-bombing-signature-demographic/

[bbedward]

Hillary's current plan of doing basically nothing except a 10 minute speech here and there is not going to be enough to win her the election, that much I can tell you.

 

The only reason she's trying the do-nothing strategy, I imagine, is because every time she's broadcasted to the world her favorables go down even further.

[Westside Steve]

I don't think I agree. I think she is a little bit repugnant in person and wants to keep the public from seeing too much of her while allowing her ad campaign to harp on every word Donald Trump has said in his entire life. The more she talks the creepier she looks.

 

WSS

[LogicIsForSquares]

Hillary's current plan of doing basically nothing except a 10 minute speech here and there is not going to be enough to win her the election, that much I can tell you.

 

The only reason she's trying the do-nothing strategy, I imagine, is because every time she's broadcasted to the world her favorables go down even further.

She doesn't have to campaign. MSNBC and CNN will do it all for her while pushing the Trump is a nazi buffoon narrative. If Trump even sniffs being within 10 points of her at election time, I will be amazed.