bbedward Posted October 10, 2016 Report Share Posted October 10, 2016 I liked when Trump destroyed Clinton here When asked on her statement about having a public/private position on policy she said it's like Abe Lincoln and the 13th amendment. Then went on to talk about wikileaks and the Russian boogeyman But Trump destroyed her in response, also Hillary validated the authenticity of the podesta emails - not that there was any doubt (podesta himself suggested they were fake) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MLD Woody Posted October 10, 2016 Author Report Share Posted October 10, 2016 I like when he said he'd answer the phone at 3am when Benghazi 2 happens because he's already up shit posting and tweeting about sex tapes at 3am now. I remembered that line, so I guess Trump won. Right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bbedward Posted October 10, 2016 Report Share Posted October 10, 2016 I like when he said he'd answer the phone at 3am when Benghazi 2 happens because he's already up shit posting and tweeting about sex tapes at 3am now. I remembered that line, so I guess Trump won. Right? Sounds good to me, and the tweet was about Machado's criminal past not just a sex tape. Clinton did nothing except bring out the Russian boogeyman and dodged questions, don't see how she won. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MLD Woody Posted October 10, 2016 Author Report Share Posted October 10, 2016 Oh, right. He said all of those other things in his tweets at 3am. Not just the sex tape part. If it was just the sex tape it wouldn't be very presidential, but all of that other stuff saved it... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MLD Woody Posted October 10, 2016 Author Report Share Posted October 10, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calfoxwc Posted October 10, 2016 Report Share Posted October 10, 2016 higgardly's "you go low, we go high" is laughable, even to inner city life long dems. Seriously, look at the low blow commercials that are all out on the tv. Trump didn't "go low" in the first debate - SHE DID. hahahaha. that's so funny. anyways, Trump got his important message out about different subjects, and put her on the defensive is a very serious way, and she completely fumbled it. Trump has made an ass of himself in the past, etc. But higgardly IS always an ass, and made an ass of herself in this second debate. Why? Her famous nervous clown grin is worse than fake - honest observers surely notice it's a knee jerk reaction and wonder "what's wrong with her with all the smiling at every tough question, every tough statement. what was funny there?" I really wanted Benghazi and the four dead Americans being brought up. crap. Why cant the mods ask her that question? Like "higgardly, you said nobody died in libya, yet 4 Americans did, you publicly blamed it on a video, but now we find out you said behind the scenes you said it was terrorism, then in front of Congress you said "at this point, what difference does it make?". Higgardly, when Americans die overseas, why do you think it makes no difference?" Anyways, Trump started off slowly, and as higgardly kept stepping in it, he started putting higgardly deservedly on the defensive, and she fumbled the ball and crapped on every question put to her. She didn't even try to justify her deletion of all those emails. She was toast at this debate. BTW, I think it's dumb to quibble over biased opinion polls that show Trump won signiicantly, and then back up that assertion about biased polls by bringing in CNN polls. That's just so shockingly silly it's laughable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MLD Woody Posted October 10, 2016 Author Report Share Posted October 10, 2016 ... the population is "debate watchers" more Dems watch debates than Reps so more Dems ended up being polled Groundbreaking stuff here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrb12711 Posted October 10, 2016 Report Share Posted October 10, 2016 Fivethirtyeight literally runs 20,000 simulations to remove bias from their decision making in forecasting models. I doubt you can even count that high yet alone understand what that stands for in predictive analytics. The funny part is (and the thing you can't get through your thick skull) is that I'm looking through this with no feelings whatsoever. You won't find a single post where I support Hilldawg because I don't. But you also gotta realize what every reliable poll we have is saying, and that's the fact that the Donald ship is sinking. It's not sunk, but that performance last night sure as shit didn't patch the hole either. If it was the other way around, I'd be saying it was suggesting that-but it's just not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DieHardBrownsFan Posted October 10, 2016 Report Share Posted October 10, 2016 I'd say the general consensus is that Trump destroyed the bitch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MLD Woody Posted October 10, 2016 Author Report Share Posted October 10, 2016 Fivethirtyeight literally runs 20,000 simulations to remove bias from their decision making in forecasting models. I doubt you can even count that high yet alone understand what that stands for in predictive analytics. The funny part is (and the thing you can't get through your thick skull) is that I'm looking through this with no feelings whatsoever. You won't find a single post where I support Hilldawg because I don't. But you also gotta realize what every reliable poll we have is saying, and that's the fact that the Donald ship is sinking. It's not sunk, but that performance last night sure as shit didn't patch the hole either. If it was the other way around, I'd be saying it was suggesting that-but it's just not. You're saying negative things about Trump YOU LOVE HILLARY! That's the only way this works! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calfoxwc Posted October 10, 2016 Report Share Posted October 10, 2016 Christopher R Barron: ‘Trump succeeded in recapturing the momentum’ After a poor first debate performance – and the Friday release of the Access Hollywood tape – Republican nominee Donald Trump needed to hit a home run Sunday night to change the narrative and recapture the momentum. Trump succeeded, and he succeeded before the first question was even asked. Trump’s pre-debate press event with four women who have accused both Clintons of wrongdoing changed the conversation from what Donald Trump said in 2005 to what Bill and Hillary Clinton actually did. Play Video Play Current Time0:00 / Duration Time1:52 Loaded: 0% Progress: 0% Fullscreen Mute FacebookTwitterPinterest Bill Clinton accusers support TrumpIt is clear that Trump’s pre-game press conference not only got talking heads to change the conversation, but it got Hillary Clinton – once believed to be unflappable – off her game, in a big way. Advertisement If Clinton was prepared for whatever Trump threw at her, it certainly didn’t come across in this debate. Gone was the happy warrior from the last debate; in its place was a new defensive Hillary Clinton. Trump kept Clinton on her heels for the entire debate. Whether sparring over Obamacare or foreign policy or tax reform or job creation, he effectively kept hammering her on her 30-year record. Instead of a debate that was focused on Trump’s vulgar comments, the debate was focused on policy issues, and despite all of Clinton’s “preparation” when it came to the nuts and bolts of policy, Trump managed to not only go toe-to-toe with Clinton, he often got the best of her. Trump needed to win tonight to stay alive. Clinton did not. Trump won, and he lives to fight another day. This race is far from over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bbedward Posted October 10, 2016 Report Share Posted October 10, 2016 Nate silver's model assured me that Trump would never get the nomination even after he basically clinched it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrb12711 Posted October 10, 2016 Report Share Posted October 10, 2016 Nate silver's model assured me that Trump would never get the nomination even after he basically clinched it If this stuff interests you, he wrote a really good piece on how he got that wrong. I was fascinated- http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/how-i-acted-like-a-pundit-and-screwed-up-on-donald-trump/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bbedward Posted October 10, 2016 Report Share Posted October 10, 2016 Didn't ole Nate also just reduce the D lean he had for several pollsters by 1 or 2 points like a month ago? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bbedward Posted October 10, 2016 Report Share Posted October 10, 2016 FWIW Wikileaks just dumped 2000 more Podesta emails this morning. Interesting one https://wikileaks.org/podesta-emails/emailid/3990 Beyond this Hillary should stop attacking Bernie, especially when she says things that are untrue, which candidly she often does. I am one of the people with credibility to suggest Bernie people support her in November, and she and Benenson and others have no idea of the damage she does to herself with these attacks, which she does not gain by making. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calfoxwc Posted October 10, 2016 Report Share Posted October 10, 2016 Fivethirtyeight literally runs 20,000 simulations to remove bias from their decision making in forecasting models. I doubt you can even count that high yet alone understand what that stands for in predictive analytics. The funny part is (and the thing you can't get through your thick skull) is that I'm looking through this with no feelings whatsoever. You won't find a single post where I support Hilldawg because I don't. But you also gotta realize what every reliable poll we have is saying, and that's the fact that the Donald ship is sinking. It's not sunk, but that performance last night sure as shit didn't patch the hole either. If it was the other way around, I'd be saying it was suggesting that-but it's just not. I'm sure that pro mmgw scientists run thousands of simulations, too. but they are still wrong, moron. When America is dealing with emotional issues, and logical faults of candidates, of course there is bias in the voting. So, your assertion that taking all bias out of it, allegedly by running "thousands of simulations"... just makes it worthless. Are you so stupid that you don't understand that programmers set up those simulations? CASE IN POINT, JRBmoron. Read it and weep. You just stepped in it with your 538 data worship. FiveThirtyEight: The Cavs are in trouble - ESPN Video - ESPN.com www.espn.com/video/clip?id=16001155 Jun 6, 2016 - Neil Paine and Andrew Flowers discuss the Cavs' realistic chances of coming back from a 0-2 deficit in the NBA Finals. Is 538 in the Bag for Hillary? - Counterpunch www.counterpunch.org/.../is-538-in-the-bag-for-hillary/ CounterPunch Apr 4, 2016 - It turns out Silver's figures and methodology are biased in favor of Clinton ... and he has also been mapping polls and 538's predictions to track ... n.wikipedia.org/wiki/FiveThirtyEight Wikipedia FiveThirtyEight, sometimes referred to as 538, is a website that focuses on opinion poll analysis ...... journalists issued criticisms of Nate Silver's predictions as overly biasedtowards Barack Obama's chances of being re-elected president. Exposing 538's Bias – Medium https://medium.com/@biasexposer/exposing-538-s-bias-cb6c24d7d4dd Aug 19, 2015 - But this election season, one of 538's senior analysts, Harry Enten, has shown an exceptional bias towards Hillary Clinton. He is only ... Is 538 biased towards Clinton? - Quora https://www.quora.com/Is-538-biased-towards-ClintonQuora I think your numbers are off. First, I think you are using delegate shares instead of vote totals, which is a pretty unfair way to assess their projections. In Michigan ... Nate Silver's Bias Exposed : News, Politics & Current Affairs • Rational ... www.rationalskepticism.org/news.../nate-silver-s-bias-exposed-t52305.ht... May 11, 2016 - 20 posts - 6 authors Nate had a pro Bernie bias in the south, making those losses look more ... were tied nationally while adding 538's bias to date per each region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calfoxwc Posted October 10, 2016 Report Share Posted October 10, 2016 You should wash your shoes, jrb smart mouth, you just stepped in it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calfoxwc Posted October 10, 2016 Report Share Posted October 10, 2016 "oh, but my programmers progrrammed my simulations and...er...uh....." LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DieHardBrownsFan Posted October 10, 2016 Report Share Posted October 10, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VaporTrail Posted October 10, 2016 Report Share Posted October 10, 2016 Fivethirtyeight literally runs 20,000 simulations to remove bias from their decision making in forecasting models. I doubt you can even count that high yet alone understand what that stands for in predictive analytics. The funny part is (and the thing you can't get through your thick skull) is that I'm looking through this with no feelings whatsoever. You won't find a single post where I support Hilldawg because I don't. But you also gotta realize what every reliable poll we have is saying, and that's the fact that the Donald ship is sinking. It's not sunk, but that performance last night sure as shit didn't patch the hole either. If it was the other way around, I'd be saying it was suggesting that-but it's just not. It doesn't matter how many simulations they run if they aren't accurately accounting for the silent Trump supporter. I think all the polls are underestimating that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrb12711 Posted October 10, 2016 Report Share Posted October 10, 2016 It doesn't matter how many simulations they run if they aren't accurately accounting for the silent Trump supporter. I think all the polls are underestimating that. Coincidentally, Nate delves into that very topic very much how I see it. He basically says that silent Trump support group that everyone talks about is going to have to surpass the 4% margin which has never occurred in any other election. If that does happen, I'll be here to eat crow. But as I've said the exact same way for months, I just don't see it happening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VaporTrail Posted October 10, 2016 Report Share Posted October 10, 2016 Here's some anecdotal evidence for the silent Trump supporter. The top thread on all of reddit last night was a thread about Trump saying he'd put Crooked Hillary in jail. It was shortly thereafter deleted by the mods who felt the need to correct the record. There are enough silent Trump supporters that CTR was unable to hide all of his support on their turf. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MLD Woody Posted October 10, 2016 Author Report Share Posted October 10, 2016 The silent Trump supporter will need to stop posting dank memes and take the time to actually vote though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VaporTrail Posted October 10, 2016 Report Share Posted October 10, 2016 The silent Trump supporter will need to stop posting dank memes and take the time to actually vote though. The X factor, if you will. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VaporTrail Posted October 10, 2016 Report Share Posted October 10, 2016 Scott Adams calls the debate a victory for Trump. http://blog.dilbert.com/post/151599421561/quick-debate-reactions-from-switzerland Woody, jrb - thoughts? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pumpkin Eater Posted October 10, 2016 Report Share Posted October 10, 2016 I don't care about 538's "simulator" I said the article was biased. Also, Hillary is quick to take credit for bill's accomplishments so it is fair to bring his character into focus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrb12711 Posted October 10, 2016 Report Share Posted October 10, 2016 Scott Adams calls the debate a victory for Trump. http://blog.dilbert.com/post/151599421561/quick-debate-reactions-from-switzerland Woody, jrb - thoughts? Again, because I didn't watch a second of it I'm not going to show my ass and say something I can't personally attest to. The ultimate irony of people claiming bias and posting the sources they use is incredible to me though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bbedward Posted October 10, 2016 Report Share Posted October 10, 2016 58% of those polled in the CNN debate poll were already voting for Clinton. According to the poll she won the debate 57-34 "Scientific" CBS and Frank Luntz's focus groups decisively said Trump won the debate. CNN was caught coaching their focus group on what to say. --- I also like how Trump drops subtle bait for the media. Like "acid washing emails" (he's said bleachbit by name before) triggered the NBC fact checkers to admit she deleted emails with bleachbit. And talking about emails he was saying 33,000 deleted then subtly just dropped 39,000 later on - surprised some HuffPo writer didn't say "Trump says hillary deleted 39,000 emails! Fact check: it was actually 33,000" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tour2ma Posted October 10, 2016 Report Share Posted October 10, 2016 bb, I'm not too fond of IPAs, but if you want to include a couple of your favs in the case, then I'll try them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrb12711 Posted October 10, 2016 Report Share Posted October 10, 2016 58% of those polled in the CNN debate poll were already voting for Clinton. According to the poll she won the debate 57-34 "Scientific" CBS and Frank Luntz's focus groups decisively said Trump won the debate. CNN was caught coaching their focus group on what to say. --- I also like how Trump drops subtle bait for the media. Like "acid washing emails" (he's said bleachbit by name before) triggered the NBC fact checkers to admit she deleted emails with bleachbit. And talking about emails he was saying 33,000 deleted then subtly just dropped 39,000 later on - surprised some HuffPo writer didn't say "Trump says hillary deleted 39,000 emails! Fact check: it was actually 33,000" Again, this is why every source I link includes other polls outside of CNN. You keep bringing that one up like the others quoted in all these sources somehow don't exist. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.