Mock Draft Central

[TexasAg1969]

Charlie Cassely's 1.0 is out...

 

1. Myles Garrett

12. traded to NE for Jimmy G (Pats take Derrick Barnett OLB)

 

http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap3000000785403/article/charley-casserly-mock-draft-10-trades-shake-up-round-1?campaign=tw-cf-sf55953387-sf55953387

 

Interesting, but does trading off #12 fit the analytics model?

[Flugel]

One thing we know about the draft is that we don't know everything that will happen. When you go back and look at virtually every mock draft, NOBODY comes close to getting them right (especially in February). One thing we can say with certainty is that SOMEONE will slide to us at #12, and we have to be ready for it. After his surgeries, could Malik Hooker slide a bit? Should we even contemplate taking him knowing that a shoulder injury is difficult to rehab and can be prone to re-injury? What about another defender like Reuben Foster? If Mitch or Watson is on the board, do we risk taking a QB?

 

I would almost bet that one of these guys projected to be gone will slide to us, and we'll be smack in the middle of a difficult decision.

 

if all the scouts/FOs in the top 11 watch film - I can't see Foster sliding to #12.

 

Very good point about Hooker's injury and being prone to re-injury considering how often Safeties involved with big collisions from being in space.

 

A guy who is returning to us from injury with fresh legs in 2017 is Des Bryant meaning we might not have to consider a guy like Thomas if we're already with Garrett first overall with young guys like Nassib, Ogbah, Orchard (also returning from injury). This reminds me we might be able to consider an offensive guy at #12 and get back to defense at #33 and via free agency. The draft seems deep in the secondary. Lorenzo Jerome had a great Senior Bowl (causing 3 turnovers) and I'm thinking a small school like St Francis puts him in a bargain round.

[The Gipper]

If we trade #12 for JG I will be...unimpressed. Particularly with guys like Humphrey and Thomas still on the board. But, I would give him the benefit of the doubt and hope for the best. It would be polarising, no doubt.

 

Garrett #1 seems more and more likely with every passing day.

Not sure why....other than that we all talk about it. No one who counts is paying one moment of attention to what we say on here.

[Tour2ma]

 

Interesting, but does trading off #12 fit the analytics model?

 

Funny you should ask...

 

A link to a PFF analysis was buried in the article, Why We won't trade for Jimmy, that I posted yesterday somewhere around here. The writer's analysis of our thought process in assessing value is about 1/4 of the way down the page.

https://www.profootballfocus.com/pro-3-possible-trade-destinations-for-patriots-qb-jimmy-garoppolo/

[LondonBrown]

 

Funny you should ask...

 

A link to a PFF analysis was buried in the article, Why We won't trade for Jimmy, that I posted yesterday somewhere around here. The writer's analysis of our thought process in assessing value is about 1/4 of the way down the page.

https://www.profootballfocus.com/pro-3-possible-trade-destinations-for-patriots-qb-jimmy-garoppolo/

Good stuff Tour, was a good read as is the article linked in it by Kevin Meers on draft pick value. If you like that sort of thing.....

 

https://harvardsportsanalysis.wordpress.com/2011/11/30/how-to-value-nfl-draft-picks/

[Tour2ma]

Good stuff Tour, was a good read as is the article linked in it by Kevin Meers on draft pick value. If you like that sort of thing.....

 

https://harvardsportsanalysis.wordpress.com/2011/11/30/how-to-value-nfl-draft-picks/

 

Yup... and I've read that as well by Kevin Meers, AKA our "Kevin Meers Director of Research and Strategy".

[TexasAg1969]

So in trade values we currently have in 2017:

 

#1-3000

#12-1200

#33-580

#52-380

#65-265 (top of the 3rd)

#128-44

#158-29.2

#159-28.8

 

So theoretically if we want to move up to say #8 (1400) to get Foster we could give up #12 (1200) plus a conditional 3rd rounder from 2018. Or overpay with #12 and #65 this year.

[The Gipper]

So in trade values we currently have in 2017:

 

#1-3000

#12-1200

#33-580

#52-380

#65-265 (top of the 3rd)

#128-44

#158-29.2

#159-28.8

 

So theoretically if we want to move up to say #8 (1400) to get Foster we could give up #12 (1200) plus a conditional 3rd rounder from 2018. Or overpay with #12 and #65 this year.

Per several references on here, the NFL basically no longer uses that Draft pick value system...which I believe was devised by Jimmy Johnson. They say the new Harvard draft value system is used. Others, like Tour who I think is more familiar with it can give you the scoop on that.

[TexasAg1969]

So is this the one in use now? Inquiring minds are too lazy to google it up.

 

 

Drafttek, Walterfootball and NBC still use the older one. http://www.drafttek.com/NFL-Trade-Value-Chart.asp

[Tour2ma]

That's the one... when we are trading away picks.

 

Your earlier choice is the one when we are accumulating picks...

[TexasAg1969]

That's the one... when we are trading away picks.

 

Your earlier choice is the one when we are accumulating picks...

 

And how does that work when we are trying to trade up from 12 to 8 to get Foster presuming he is there? That the old chart like I illustrated originally?

[gftChris]

 

And how does that work when we are trying to trade up from 12 to 8 to get Foster presuming he is there? That the old chart like I illustrated originally?

Well the other team might be using the old chart, or the new chart. They'll have different values perhaps, and if a compromise can be found then great, otherwise sorry.

 

Eventually, it will become common practise to use the new chart when people stop overvaluing high picks and stop undervaluing mid-round picks, and balance will be found. Until then, we can continue to fleece other teams for more than the pick is worth, unless there's a guy there so great it's worth staying put.

[Tour2ma]

Exactly Chris... all in the negotiating, but our starting point on a trade up would be the new chart and its flatter decay curve.

 

I looked at our two big 2016 trade downs a while back.

 

In the first with Philly, we got a little better than the old chart value for out #2 overall. When looked at on the new chart, it was killer in our favor.

 

But when we traded down Philly's #8 overall, that deal was only slightly better than the new chart would green-light.

[gftChris]

Exactly Chris... all in the negotiating, but our starting point on a trade up would be the new chart and its flatter decay curve.

 

I looked at our two big 2016 trade downs a while back.

 

In the first with Philly, we got a little better than the old chart value for out #2 overall. When looked at on the new chart, it was killer in our favor.

 

But when we traded down Philly's #8 overall, that deal was only slightly better than the new chart would green-light.

I remember that and being slightly confused as to why we traded down further, but we'll see what happens. I don't want to go back into old deals every time, but picking up extra second and third round picks - those guys can become starters almost right away like Ogbah, or be traded for experienced guys like Collins.

[miktoxic]

Garapallo behind our OL is going to look like tim couch to a lot of you.

 

the garrett kizer mock i'm behind. maybe in 2018 after picking JT's replacement at LT #1 things will come to fruition. trying to win with Jimmy G next year is going to be another huge disappointment. i say throw RG3 in there to get killed for a 1/4 of the season and pick up some scrub vet to get bashed the rest of the year. hell the rookie from last year might surprise us all. showed a little staying power.

[gftChris]

The rookie from last year - Kessler - looks like McCown 2.0, he's a fine enough guy to carry us to some wins next year if needed, but not the franchise guy we're looking for I think.

[miktoxic]

The rookie from last year - Kessler - looks like McCown 2.0, he's a fine enough guy to carry us to some wins next year if needed, but not the franchise guy we're looking for I think.

 

i guess i feel the same...... yes i know his name. just did better than i thought considering his draft 'intangibles'. i put one in hue's win column considering i really didn't like his hire.

[gftChris]

 

i guess i feel the same...... yes i know his name. just did better than i thought considering his draft 'intangibles'. i put one in hue's win column considering i really didn't like his hire.

I think his intangibles are pretty good, just his tangibles weren't so good. Not so big, arm strength not so great, but good leader, protects the ball etc. If you want a game manager, then he could be it, if he could just air it out a bit more from time to time and really use guys like Coleman and Pryor.

[LondonBrown]

Game managers like Alex Smith are good enough to teach the playoffs. Was disappointed in how they used and treated Kessler last year he was showing promise and should have had the offense tailored to him instead it seemed they were annoyed he couldn't do the things they should have already known he couldn't do when they drafted him.

[Tour2ma]

Game managers like Alex Smith are good enough to teach the playoffs. Was disappointed in how they used and treated Kessler last year he was showing promise and should have had the offense tailored to him instead it seemed they were annoyed he couldn't do the things they should have already known he couldn't do when they drafted him.

 

I know what you are saying, but still disagree "we" were asking too much of Kess. Hue just wanted him to take shots that were there downfield. And many of the shots were intermediate ones. It is not as if he was expected to launch 60-yd bomb after 60-yd bomb.

 

Maybe we were asking "too soon", but not too much.

[Tour2ma]

Kiper's 2.0 is out...

 

1. Myles Garrett, DE, Texas A&M*

I've made a bunch of changes in this mock from the 1.0 version. This isn't one of them. It's not out of the question that this pick could factor into the future at quarterback for the Browns, whether that's a drafted QB or one they acquire via trade. But Garrett is, right now, clearly the No. 1 player in this draft class and would be an immediate help at a position where having an elite player on a rookie contract is like stealing.

12. Tre'Davious White, CB, LSU

In this scenario, two quarterbacks are off the board. Since I can't simulate a trade here (Jimmy Garoppolo?), this pick is made based on the idea that Cleveland has either found a QB through trade or free agency and doesn't want to reach on another QB. White would come in and at least partially address a major need area (coverage, in all aspects).

 

https://www.reddit.com/r/Browns/comments/5u8m7s/kiper_mock_20/

[wargograw]

Is my wariness of LSU guys justified? DBs and DL in particular? They're all 5 stars and they just out talent people in college. At least at Alabama you know they're being lorded over by a dictator of technique. Things were more lax under Miles and Chavis (don't know about Aranda yet).

[Tour2ma]

LSU OL wary here...

 

And, yes, we are justified...

[Tour2ma]

And PFF's 4.0 is out....

 

1. Garrett

12. FSU RB Davin Cook

 

https://www.profootballfocus.com/pro-mock-draft-4-0-bears-jets-texans-select-quarterbacks-in-first-round/

[beare]

Out of those 2 id prefer the garrett cook way more!!!

 

 

ALSO im thinking more and more tyrod taylor will be our qb next year so id like see a garett-cook or oj howard 1st rd) best qb in 2nd rd to sit a year or 2.

[The Gipper]

Is my wariness of LSU guys justified? DBs and DL in particular? They're all 5 stars and they just out talent people in college. At least at Alabama you know they're being lorded over by a dictator of technique. Things were more lax under Miles and Chavis (don't know about Aranda yet).

No more so than wariness of TAMU guys as far as first round picks...hell the whole SEC

 

Mingo, Manziel. Richardson. Warren. Couch. We got shit on by the entire SEC. (Well, there was Joe Haden).

The ACC isn't much better: Erving, Wimbley, K2. Green.

And fucking Oklahoma St? Gilbert and Weeden. Keeee- riste

At least the Big Ten gave us JT.

[Frenchie]

If I were the Browns, I would offer our 1st pick in the second round for JG. I think NE would say no, until the first round comes to an end and they're still holding on to JG. Then they'll come to their senses. If not, we pick best QB available and hope for the best.

 

Then I would go 1. Garrett and 2. (Surprise!! guess who falls to us?) Mike Williams. Then JG, and then go best available CB or S.

 

Now that could change the dynamics of this team!

[The Gipper]

If I were the Browns, I would offer our 1st pick in the second round for JG. I think NE would say no, until the first round comes to an end and they're still holding on to JG. Then they'll come to their senses. If not, we pick best QB available and hope for the best.

 

Then I would go 1. Garrett and 2. (Surprise!! guess who falls to us?) Mike Williams. Then JG, and then go best available CB or S.

 

Now that could change the dynamics of this team!

NO

[calfoxwc]

Mike William??? at 12? for the Browns?

 

no way. He isn't a dramatic impact player like Howard.

 

http://www.nfl.com/draft/2017/profiles/mike-williams?id=2557966

 

WEAKNESSES Natural pass catcher who will occasionally run into focus drops. Drops issue found him over second half of the season. Route work lacks focus and energy. Creates very little indecision from cornerbacks with his head fakes and jab steps. Ability to win with physical traits could dry up on next level. Could use better understanding of route leverage to open wider passing lanes for quarterbacks. Plant-and-go at the stem lacks crispness as does acceleration from his cuts. Average release quickness. Gets hung up by press corners with a good lead jab. Needs to play to his size. Gets muscled against sideline too often. Fumbled twice this season. Neck injury forced him to miss entire 2015 season so until he clears combine medicals, teams may have a red flag on him. SOURCES TELL US "Really pretty looking when you watch him down on the field but he's not there yet. I think he'll get there but he's not there yet. I don't think he's going to run as fast as people think. When college players get up here and find out that cornerbacks are faster and more physical, there is an adjustment period. I think it will take him some time to figure things out but I think he'll do it. He's going to be good, I just don't know if he's going to be a star." -- NFC Pro Personnel Director NFL COMPARISON

Plaxico Burress

[wargograw]

No more so than wariness of TAMU guys as far as first round picks...hell the whole SEC

 

Mingo, Manziel. Richardson. Warren. Couch. We got shit on by the entire SEC. (Well, there was Joe Haden).

The ACC isn't much better: Erving, Wimbley, K2. Green.

And fucking Oklahoma St? Gilbert and Weeden. Keeee- riste

At least the Big Ten gave us JT.

One school to one NFL team means nothing. Especially when your sample size is 1 or 2. LSU has a DB in the first round practically every year and the only ones I can name based on their NFL performances are Peterson and Mathieu.