Orion Posted October 20, 2022 Report Share Posted October 20, 2022 It's round 7 and we're tied for last. ugh. Again we have a poor matchup for our offense. The Ravens are good against the run and bad against the pass. Combine that with the fact that they run the ball quite well and we, well, you know, are terrible at run D. - I'm sorry, but I just don't see how we can win this game. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Korsou Dawg Posted October 20, 2022 Report Share Posted October 20, 2022 This one feels more like damage control. If they don't even manage that, hopefully changes will be made soon. Our Browns have been tough to watch this season. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orion Posted October 20, 2022 Author Report Share Posted October 20, 2022 QB Jacoby Brissett has received praise since Sunday's loss for speaking in the locker room after the game, and he believes his message will help the team bring themselves up this week as they look to end a three-game losing streak. "It was just one of those moments where something needed to be said by somebody," he said. "As the quarterback, as the leader of this team, I felt the liberty to do that. "I only do it because I hope people are listening and because I need to hear it myself. Hopefully, it translates, and I think it will and I think it has. Guys understand the urgency that we need to play with and focus with this week of preparation. That's the mindset." Way to go! Good job Jacoby!! But I've decided to start Dobbs. 3 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dutch Oven Posted October 21, 2022 Report Share Posted October 21, 2022 The only thing that makes me slightly optimistic is how the Browns defense performed vs Jackson and the Ravens offense last year in Baltimore, picking Jackon off four times and sacking him four times. But that was when the defense was actually playing at playoff-caliber. That feels like ten years ago. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orion Posted October 21, 2022 Author Report Share Posted October 21, 2022 1 hour ago, Dutch Oven said: how the Browns defense performed A local Cleveland radio station, 93.2 The Fan, had Hall of Fame quarterback Kurt Warner on the show as a guest. Needless to say, he did not have kind words to say about the defense the Cleveland Browns currently field under defensive coordinator Joe Woods. Outlined by the station’s Assistant Brand Manager Keith Britton, Warner gave the following thoughts: “When I watch them on tape, this looks like a very easy defense to attack. A lot of times they’ll play base defensive schemes…Nothing wrong with the system, structure…but I know exactly how I would attack, exploit them” Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tiamat63 Posted October 21, 2022 Report Share Posted October 21, 2022 26 minutes ago, Orion said: A local Cleveland radio station, 93.2 The Fan, had Hall of Fame quarterback Kurt Warner on the show as a guest. Needless to say, he did not have kind words to say about the defense the Cleveland Browns currently field under defensive coordinator Joe Woods. Outlined by the station’s Assistant Brand Manager Keith Britton, Warner gave the following thoughts: “When I watch them on tape, this looks like a very easy defense to attack. A lot of times they’ll play base defensive schemes…Nothing wrong with the system, structure…but I know exactly how I would attack, exploit them” God bless Kurt, much like his video breakdown with Baker Mayfield, he isn't wrong... until he contradicts himself. Though this is just a partial quote, so context is everything. But it's a kind way of saying we suck so bad that the calls don't matter. Allow me... - What is "base defensive schemes?" I say this because, unless you clearly construct what the opposing defenses base is, then you're painting whatever caricature of that would be into fans minds. The base call for the Browns is pretty different from the Steelers. So these types of details matter. - The Browns "base" personnel includes 2 linebackers sub 220Lbs. One out of Notre Dame whose athletic ability was so hyped, that the talking heads said he could play safety. Meaning the Browns could stay in their 3 LB sets and not lose the athletic matchup against 11 personnel. That was the point of drafting such a player. There have also been posters on this board complaining we play too much nickel. So if that has been part of your gripe, then you can't be upset when our coaches call what you want to see. - When Woods has attempted to mix up his fronts, there was even a blended gap call against the Falcons that involved Jordan Elliot 2 gapping, there have been individual assignment losses either along the defensive front, or at LB. This is not me exaggerating - 80% of the assignment failures up front are between Jordan Elliot, Tommy Togiai and Jacob Phillip's. - Kurt admitting there's nothing wrong with the system structure, it's just "basic". Well no shit, Sherlock. When you have a roster that can barely execute the basics of a B gap bubble collapse in an Over front, then you're not going to be able to put any higher level work on them and expect better results. If players can't win 1 gap assignments, then what makes anyone believe they'll win playing a 2 gap role? - This circles us back around to, "they're easy to attack". This is an admission that, when the Browns come out in our commonly used Over fronts, teams can call a simple weakside zone and get yards well above expected and blocked average. We have the worst two IDL-men in the entire NFL, and they're both starters on the same team. Or to put it more simply, if your big guys can line up and move my big guys, then nothing more needs to be said. You're losing at the most fundamental level in football, and nothing can be done to remedy that short of new players. Thank God Kurt can see this as well. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nickers Posted October 21, 2022 Report Share Posted October 21, 2022 1 hour ago, tiamat63 said: God bless Kurt, much like his video breakdown with Baker Mayfield, he isn't wrong... until he contradicts himself. Though this is just a partial quote, so context is everything. But it's a kind way of saying we suck so bad that the calls don't matter. Allow me... - What is "base defensive schemes?" I say this because, unless you clearly construct what the opposing defenses base is, then you're painting whatever caricature of that would be into fans minds. The base call for the Browns is pretty different from the Steelers. So these types of details matter. - The Browns "base" personnel includes 2 linebackers sub 220Lbs. One out of Notre Dame whose athletic ability was so hyped, that the talking heads said he could play safety. Meaning the Browns could stay in their 3 LB sets and not lose the athletic matchup against 11 personnel. That was the point of drafting such a player. There have also been posters on this board complaining we play too much nickel. So if that has been part of your gripe, then you can't be upset when our coaches call what you want to see. - When Woods has attempted to mix up his fronts, there was even a blended gap call against the Falcons that involved Jordan Elliot 2 gapping, there have been individual assignment losses either along the defensive front, or at LB. This is not me exaggerating - 80% of the assignment failures up front are between Jordan Elliot, Tommy Togiai and Jacob Phillip's. - Kurt admitting there's nothing wrong with the system structure, it's just "basic". Well no shit, Sherlock. When you have a roster that can barely execute the basics of a B gap bubble collapse in an Over front, then you're not going to be able to put any higher level work on them and expect better results. If players can't win 1 gap assignments, then what makes anyone believe they'll win playing a 2 gap role? - This circles us back around to, "they're easy to attack". This is an admission that, when the Browns come out in our commonly used Over fronts, teams can call a simple weakside zone and get yards well above expected and blocked average. We have the worst two IDL-men in the entire NFL, and they're both starters on the same team. Or to put it more simply, if your big guys can line up and move my big guys, then nothing more needs to be said. You're losing at the most fundamental level in football, and nothing can be done to remedy that short of new players. Thank God Kurt can see this as well. The difference is... Kurt gets PAID for his analysis... YOU DON'T... 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tiamat63 Posted October 21, 2022 Report Share Posted October 21, 2022 34 minutes ago, nickers said: The difference is... Kurt gets PAID for his analysis... YOU DON'T... Indirectly, I make money from my Browns analysis via gambling. I've literally paid my rent this month just off the last 2 CLE games and 2 props from last nights Cardinals win alone. I'm on pace to beat last years margin by 32%. Directly, per 3 very encouraging and seperate email conversations, two that found me referencing and linking my work posted right on this very board; The days of not making direct money off my analysis might be coming to a close before the 2022 season is over. You'll notice the time I spent in my observations thread doing breakdowns for this board every other day has dried up. That time, knowledge and effort is being spent on this new pursuit. And I look forward to sharing it with you guys when it's ready to go. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nickers Posted October 21, 2022 Report Share Posted October 21, 2022 10 minutes ago, tiamat63 said: Indirectly, I make money from my Browns analysis via gambling. I've literally paid my rent this month just off the last 2 CLE games and 2 props from last nights Cardinals win alone. I'm on pace to beat last years margin by 32%. Directly, per 3 very encouraging and seperate email conversations, two that found me referencing and linking my work posted right on this very board; The days of not making direct money off my analysis might be coming to a close before the 2022 season is over. You'll notice the time I spent in my observations thread doing breakdowns for this board every other day has dried up. That time, knowledge and effort is being spent on this new pursuit. And I look forward to sharing it with you guys when it's ready to go. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tiamat63 Posted October 21, 2022 Report Share Posted October 21, 2022 3 minutes ago, nickers said: I'll take a medal for when I finally crack my eggs on the side of the skillet and not somehow get the tiniest bit of shell in the pan. If you're able to do that, then god bless. Because you sir are some kind of warlock. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SdBacker80 Posted October 21, 2022 Report Share Posted October 21, 2022 1 hour ago, tiamat63 said: Indirectly, I make money from my Browns analysis via gambling. I've literally paid my rent this month just off the last 2 CLE games and 2 props from last nights Cardinals win alone. I'm on pace to beat last years margin by 32%. Directly, per 3 very encouraging and seperate email conversations, two that found me referencing and linking my work posted right on this very board; The days of not making direct money off my analysis might be coming to a close before the 2022 season is over. You'll notice the time I spent in my observations thread doing breakdowns for this board every other day has dried up. That time, knowledge and effort is being spent on this new pursuit. And I look forward to sharing it with you guys when it's ready to go. Good Luck sustaining long term success betting NFL games even the best navigate the ebb and flow being up and down. I find it incredibly hard even with the best analytical tools at your side. Referees can turn games on there side at key times and The rules allow their influence. I do think there is some merit to the NFL having darling teams and players that they prefer advance through the playoffs that can be a workable angle and doesn’t take a lot of thought or pouring through numbers. I think CFB is slightly easier especially when you focus on a conference or two. if it is for fun that is one thing but if it is side hustle or even more than that You are better off buying property. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tiamat63 Posted October 21, 2022 Report Share Posted October 21, 2022 1 hour ago, SdBacker80 said: Good Luck sustaining long term success betting NFL games even the best navigate the ebb and flow being up and down. I find it incredibly hard even with the best analytical tools at your side. Referees can turn games on there side at key times and The rules allow their influence. I do think there is some merit to the NFL having darling teams and players that they prefer advance through the playoffs that can be a workable angle and doesn’t take a lot of thought or pouring through numbers. I think CFB is slightly easier especially when you focus on a conference or two. if it is for fun that is one thing but if it is side hustle or even more than that You are better off buying property. Side hustle. Before I did anything, I mean in 2017 before I even placed my 1st wager, all I did was study, read, listen. Source information from wherever and whomever I could get it from. Then to take that information and form a system of my own metrics. Not quite a formula, but a series of guidelines ranging from how to handle injuries, to weather forecasts, play-call trends, personnel, etc etc. I went full recon. Then things that went beyond stats where my football I.Q. benefits me - watching individual or unit matchups, quality of line play and so on. After that? I STILL didn't place a single wager. I started a log of all the lines I would have bet, actually found an app for it that let you do it with points and not money - a betting simulator, then measured my results vs earnings/losses. Went back, made my final adjustments to my guidelines. Then, finally, I set realistic expectations. I'm not a professional and I'm not starting with a large bank roll. $250 deposit at the start of every year. If I lose it, that's it and I'm done. Placed my first bet tOSU vs Oregon State - $25, in 2018, on the over at 60.5. 77-31 final. The rest is history. I'm constantly making adjustments to my guidelines. As Bruce Lee once said - "Be water, my friend". And if I'm not sold on something, I simply don't touch it. Avoids influence betting sites, such as action network and how they covered the Saints - Cards game, telling me to hammer the under at 44. And yes, there is a suspicious part of me that wonders if gambling analytics, if not corrupted by personal bias in their methods, can be corrupted through money. I trust myself before anyone else. So if I make a decision of my own merits that costs me, I can't put the blame on another party. ( obviously, took the Over at 44 last night) Gambling wins invoke a strong dopamine response. It can be addicting. And yes, winning money is a thrill, I went nuts during the N.C. State Clemson game last year because I had the Wolfpack to cover, money line and sprinkled on the under that I moved by half point. (No parlay, that's a fools errand) So you have to remind yourself why you're doing it - profit, not thrill. I can't remember what other thread I said this in, but you have to remove yourself, the emotional component, from the equation. Once you find some ability to do that, or to have the nuance to at least admit any bias you might carry, you start to see things more clearly. Gambling is no different. I view it as a high risk stock play and nothing more. Most do it for fun, and that's why they lose money, or at best break even. If you want to not lose your ass, you have to put a good deal of time and discipline into it. Which is no different than my dedication and deconstruction of when I do my Browns work. Time, effort, focus and commitment. Nothing less. Edit: the property thing you're spot on with and it reminded me of my grandpa. " buy land, they ain't making any more of it". Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orion Posted October 21, 2022 Author Report Share Posted October 21, 2022 4 hours ago, tiamat63 said: - What is "base defensive schemes?" I say this because, unless you clearly construct what the opposing defenses base is, then you're painting whatever caricature of that would be into fans minds. True. Ask 5 different fans and get 4 different answers. The gist of it though is that he thinks he could easily pick our defense apart if he were playing. And I think I heard that Woods was thinking of simplifying the defense even more. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Flugel Posted October 21, 2022 Report Share Posted October 21, 2022 3 minutes ago, Orion said: True. Ask 5 different fans and get 4 different answers. The gist of it though is that he thinks he could easily pick our defense apart if he were playing. And I think I heard that Woods was thinking of simplifying the defense even more. I think I heard that too. They're learning his defense at the speed of park. That said, when you have 3 different kids from LSU on your defense (Delpit, Phillips, Greedy) you have keep it Summer School level. They're starting to understand the guys with different color uniforms are on offense when they take the field. Doesn't matter, as long as they're fast I'm told. About 10 years ago Dallas drafted a corner from LSU and the only thing he guessed right on the Wonderlic was his name; but I can't guarantee he spelled it correctly... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calfoxwc Posted October 21, 2022 Report Share Posted October 21, 2022 3 hours ago, tiamat63 said: I'll take a medal for when I finally crack my eggs on the side of the skillet and not somehow get the tiniest bit of shell in the pan. If you're able to do that, then god bless. Because you sir are some kind of warlock. I buy only brown eggs and crack em into a white dish. Once in a while, I found out once a long time ago....the crunch can ruin breakfast immediately... 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tiamat63 Posted October 21, 2022 Report Share Posted October 21, 2022 3 minutes ago, Flugel said: I think I heard that too. They're learning his defense at the speed of park. That said, when you have 3 different kids from LSU on your defense (Delpit, Phillips, Greedy) you have keep it Summer School level. They're starting to understand the guys with different color uniforms are on offense when they take the field. Doesn't matter, as long as they're fast I'm told. About 10 years ago Dallas drafted a corner from LSU and the only thing he guessed right on the Wonderlic was his name; but I can't guarantee he spelled it correctly... The 'park' part gave me a good laugh. Thanks. Also, Mo Claiborne. I remember watching him and, there was a corner from Bama that went to the Jets, can't remember his name... I just didn't get the, Milliner... I'm remembering as I'm typing. Yeah... didn't get the hype for either. Especially when Patrick Peterson was on that same LSU squad and you could compare the two. 17 minutes ago, Orion said: True. Ask 5 different fans and get 4 different answers. The gist of it though is that he thinks he could easily pick our defense apart if he were playing. And I think I heard that Woods was thinking of simplifying the defense even more. I'm not sure how to say this, I could easily pick apart our defense if putting together a game plan. It's bad to the point I've taken bets against the Browns with confidence. I have a good idea the Ravens might finally bust out their power/trap game this weekend too. Couldn't do it against the Gmen, they have Dexter Lawrence and Williams up front. It'd be a questionable coaching job if they didn't, actually. My interpretation when Kurt says - the structure isn't wrong (it isn't) but he can easily pick them apart (he can) is that the personnel weaknesses, more specifically them losing their assignments battles, are truly that obvious. Even to national pundits who put on a game or two at most, I don't see how it couldn't be any more clear. It's not like we're being abused by overly complex designs either. You can go watch Iowa and one of the zone running game innovators m in Kirk Ferentz, beat that weakside zone to death this weekend against the Bucks. I highly doubt tOSU has any trouble handling it, especially with the way Hale is playing this season. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
syd Posted October 21, 2022 Report Share Posted October 21, 2022 make some gambles in the game to create some damn turnovers Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
syd Posted October 21, 2022 Report Share Posted October 21, 2022 didnt ronnie harrison have a big game vs the ravens last year ? hopefully emerson and jones really step it up get some hits on jackson early really seems to rattle him Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orion Posted October 22, 2022 Author Report Share Posted October 22, 2022 I think I saw where Hospital Ward is out again with the concussion. I bet he's missed a quarter of his career. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
syd Posted October 22, 2022 Report Share Posted October 22, 2022 43 minutes ago, Orion said: I think I saw where Hospital Ward is out again with the concussion. I bet he's missed a quarter of his career. he will be there for are playoff run Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Flugel Posted October 22, 2022 Report Share Posted October 22, 2022 13 hours ago, Orion said: I think I saw where Hospital Ward is out again with the concussion. I bet he's missed a quarter of his career. I'm a big fan of nicknames and that might be the best one I've seen this year. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Flugel Posted October 22, 2022 Report Share Posted October 22, 2022 23 hours ago, tiamat63 said: Indirectly, I make money from my Browns analysis via gambling. I've literally paid my rent this month just off the last 2 CLE games and 2 props from last nights Cardinals win alone. I'm on pace to beat last years margin by 32%. Directly, per 3 very encouraging and seperate email conversations, two that found me referencing and linking my work posted right on this very board; The days of not making direct money off my analysis might be coming to a close before the 2022 season is over. You'll notice the time I spent in my observations thread doing breakdowns for this board every other day has dried up. That time, knowledge and effort is being spent on this new pursuit. And I look forward to sharing it with you guys when it's ready to go. It's nice to see you getting paid for those efforts. Well deserved! Kick off and Kick Ass! If you ever change your mind, I think you'd make an excellent High School Football Coach. That's not just because of your knowledge. I think you have the personality and inner chest to make it happen. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gumby73 Posted October 22, 2022 Report Share Posted October 22, 2022 16 hours ago, Orion said: I think I saw where Hospital Ward is out again with the concussion. I bet he's missed a quarter of his career. This horse-hockey 💩 medical term of "better to give them the extra week off", cost teams games... Jones said himself.. He wanted to play last week.. Ian Rapoport @RapSheet · Follow The #Browns have activated LB Deion Jones from injured reserve, and the former #Falcons standout will make his debut. 12:10 PM · Oct 22, 2022 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orion Posted October 22, 2022 Author Report Share Posted October 22, 2022 4 hours ago, Flugel said: I'm a big fan of nicknames and that might be the best one I've seen this year. Credit goes to ballpeen. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orion Posted October 22, 2022 Author Report Share Posted October 22, 2022 1 hour ago, gumby73 said: The #Browns have activated LB Deion Jones from injured reserve, and the former #Falcons standout will make his debut. i thought they took him off of IR last week...but they didn't activate him. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Flugel Posted October 22, 2022 Report Share Posted October 22, 2022 5 hours ago, Orion said: Credit goes to ballpeen. Thanks! Then a tip of the hat to Ballpeen for the clever nickname for Ward. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ghoolie Always Ghoolie Posted October 23, 2022 Report Share Posted October 23, 2022 On 10/21/2022 at 9:14 AM, nickers said: The difference is... Kurt gets PAID for his analysis... YOU DON'T... LMAO. The one common thing to both? Hardly anyone reads these things. Tiamat he passion fornication he does, and he is a Browns fan. So he is okay with me. If all that analytics shit makes him happy, God bless him. I just don't g⁵et the cock fighting over who is correct and who knows more. As far as I can tell, we are all clueless fucktards, just like Browns management. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gumby73 Posted October 23, 2022 Report Share Posted October 23, 2022 33 minutes ago, Ghoolie Always Ghoolie said: I just don't g⁵et the cock fighting over who is correct and who knows more. As far as I can tell, we are all clueless fucktards, just like Browns management. Lmao.. 🤣 Thank me later, and your welcome 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Cysko Kid Posted October 23, 2022 Report Share Posted October 23, 2022 I dont like our chances in this one. Anything can happen but i thjk the most likely outcome is lamat jackson runs and throws all over the browns defense. And also cade york misses a couple of kicks. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tiamat63 Posted October 23, 2022 Report Share Posted October 23, 2022 10 hours ago, Ghoolie Always Ghoolie said: If all that analytics shit makes him happy What I do is more in line with an old school coach watching film. Not some pen protector having nerd coming up with new metric ratings. Either way, I appreciate that. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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