Mudfly Posted December 24, 2016 Report Share Posted December 24, 2016 Ok....another long one.....so I was gonna do a mid-season draft thread, then decided my mood wasnt right and we hadnt seen enough to form an objective grade....but, now, I feel we have....so, it's time... A few things before I start..... 1) tried to be as objective(and fair) as possible..... 2) grades are based on what these players brought to the Browns....so, if they're gone or playing elsewhere....it's an F..... 3) grades are also based upon their draft position and the expectations we would have for that pick....IE: we have higher expectations for a #1 than we do for a #7....a good example being Higgins and Colemen....with Coleman playing better, but not meeting the lofty expectations, while Higgins had lesser stats, but basically gave us what we'd expect from a 5th round pick.... 4) this one is important to understand.....a C is an "expected grade"....so it's not bad, it was what we expected.....a B is above expectation.....and A is a "star" like player....well above expectation.... Since we can mostly agree that it takes about 3 yrs to fully evaluate ALL the picks, I decided to go back a few years and evaluate the last few......and, it is clear that the scoring DROPS with each ensuing season, as year one pushes us toward grading picks higher, then adjusting as those players vanish or hit their max....so, from year 1 to 2 to 3 , some players go up(Shelton Kirksey) and some players go down(Desir, West) Im sure there will be some discourse about my grades, but Im hoping people understand this system, so we dont get bogged down in grading "potential or future hopes" and instead can focus on actual performance for that season only....so, with that, we can assume some of this seasons picked will grow and give us more(the colemans?) and some of this years picks will fade away and end up as F's..... The point system is very easy.....0.5 increments....0-6 scale.....F=0.....A+ = 6....A=5.5.....A- = 5....etc. Ive graded each player, based upon production and draft position, added them up for an aggregate score, then divided by the number of picks to get an overall draft grade.....and Ive included 3 years, so we can see the progression(or drop off) as the years progress..... I also did 2013, but in the end, it was a complete bust....why?.....because they are all gone.....so screw it.....that entire draft was a bust. Period. So.....without further yakking.....here it is..... 2014 - 6 picks year 1 year 2 year 3 Gilbert 1-8 D / 1 D / 1 F / 0 Manziel 1-22 D / 1 D-/ 0.5 F / 0 Bitonio 2-35 B+/4.5 B / 4 B+/4.5 Kirksey 3-71 C / 2.5 C+/3 B+/4.5 West 3-94 C/ 2.5 F / 0 F / 0 Desir 4-127 C/ 2.5 C-/ 2 F/ 0 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 14pts/ 2.3 score 10.pts/ 1.75 score 9 pts/ 1.5 score 2015 - 12 picks year 1 year 2 Shelton 1-12 C- / 2 A- / 5 Erving 1-19 D / 1 D / 1 Orchard 2-51 C / 2.5 D+/ 1.5 Johnson 3-77 B+/ 4.5 B / 4 Cooper 3-96 C / 2.5 C-/ 2 Campbell 4-115 C / 2.5 C / 2.5 Mayle 4-124 F / O F / 0 Gaines 6-189 C / 2.5 F / 0 Johnson 6-196 C / 2.5 F / 0 Telfer 6-198 D / 1 C / 2.5 Pullard 7-219 F / 0 F / 0 Olomu 7-241 F / 0 F/ 0 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 21pts/ 1.75 score 18.5pts/ 1.54 score 2016 - 14 picks year 1 Coleman 1-15 D+ / 1.5 Ogbah 2-32 C+ / 3 Nassib 3-65 C- / 2 Coleman 3-76 D- / 0.5 Kessler 3-93 C- / 2 Schobert 4-99 C- / 2 Louis 4-114 D+/ 1.5 Kindred 4-129 B / 4 Devalve 4-138 C / 2.5 Payton 5-154 D-/ 0.5 Drango 5-168 C+/ 3 Higgins 5-172 C / 2.5 Caldwell 5-177 D / 1 Wright 7-th F / 0 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 26pts / 1.85 score So...year one grades are 2014 = 2.3 score.....2015 = 1.75 score......2016 = 1.85 score.... Id expect Coleman, Nassib and Ogbah to raise their grades next year......and Id expect some others to go away and end up as busts......but to my eyes, this years draft is not terrible and it's not great.....just about the average(or same) for year 1, as we had the last couple of drafts.......and I do believe the last 3 drafts have been slightly better than the ones prior.....considering every single player we drafted in 2011-12-13 is now gone....and therefore a zero grade..... I do have individual explanations for this years picks, which Ill post in a bit..... Ok.....ATTACK!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Flugel Posted December 24, 2016 Report Share Posted December 24, 2016 Ok....another long one.....so I was gonna do a mid-season draft thread, then decided my mood wasnt right and we hadnt seen enough to form an objective grade....but, now, I feel we have....so, it's time... Great job with that Mud! I think you were pretty fair and some of the guys with tougher grades - you clarified you expected improvement from. I think we all need to remember how much a guy like Shelton changed for the better in 1 full year. One guy I'm expecting a big improvement from is Higgins. I'm betting the strength and conditioning coaches help him add about 10 lbs and he comes back with some improved strength/power. I'm also thinking there's enough on tape for this staff to give Orchard more of a chance. He finished strong as a rookie when other veterans were handed starting jobs for the first 12 weeks or so. I was excited about him coming out. I think I overrated the crap out of Xavier Cooper. Looks like I need a new prescription on my rose colored glasses. Gee, there's a surprise... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calfoxwc Posted December 24, 2016 Report Share Posted December 24, 2016 it doesn't matter mud. Take Coleman, for example. If he went to Dallas, or Green Bay, etc, he'd be a huge star by now. There are players who can't thrive because the right side of the oline is struggling, the qb position is a disaster still, and the Browns don't have an established #1 wr to draw attention.. I'll bet Danny Shelton is All-pro as soon as there's another ass-kicker on the line - like....Allen..? They can't just double team Danny all the time and hope for the best. it is too complex to use limited criteria - players like jm and gilbert were drafted on physical ability... but they failed mentality/discipline-wise...and Gilbert didn't love the game. so often, the Browns have looked at college players in the draft as objects to plug in. Their trouble was that those college players are human beings - you have to draft based on what attributes they bring to your team as far as being human beings. Take Danny Shelton - arguably already one of the best NT's in the NFL - if he didn't care, was lazy, didn't love the game, didn't have the work ethic? He could have been a bust as that wrong kind of person. But he's the opposite. That is the key to finding players who love the game. When I think back to those players who I remember as being -real Cleveland Browns- guys like Kevin Mack, Dixon/Minnifield, Kosar, Sipe, Jerry Sherk, Newsome, Dieken, Mike and Gregg Pruitt, Milt Morin, Leroy Kelly, Gene Hickerson, Bob Golic, Webster Slaughter, Brian Brennan, Haden, Josh Cribbs, other names I can't think of right now....back in earlier years, they all *loved* the game. So, drafting a Justin Gilbert is just not smart. JM was a party animal in college ,what did anyone expect when he was a millionaire? JM...Gordon - rehab. Take Fournette, for example. I don't know - maybe he doesn't love the game when he's in the NFL, and only wants the money, doesn't care about making a home here, and will do well until he can leave in FA and get bigger money elsewhere, like the Saints or something. Why not look at that all that? You can't build a team by drafting college stars that don't give a crap and don't fit. Sorry, it's just that your 2013 was a bust - I believe that's why. The Browns now won't be making those mistakes anymore, at least not out of ommission of looking at all the aspects of a player. Anyways, nice work, Mud, that took some serious time - but to me, Coleman's "D" isn't his fault. The really stupidass, superficial criteria they based their picks on was their huge mistake, and it blew up in their faces. This coaching staff and FO would NEVER have drafted a JM, Gilbert, Richardson, Gordon, etc etc. Things are lookin up, bigly! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mudfly Posted December 24, 2016 Author Report Share Posted December 24, 2016 and here's the break out on 2016..... C. Coleman....1-15.....Im on record as not liking this one....didnt like the trade back....didnt like picking WR 1st(or 4 of em ftm)....and, if we were gonna pick one, Coleman wouldnt have been my choice.....none the less, I WANT him to succeed 100%....The predraft take was that he had speed and elusiveness and a knack for the end zone......the knocks were that he had suspect hands, didnt always run good routes(or develop separation) and rarely won the 50/50 balls.......and, based upon this season, Id say the pre-draft analysis was spot on.....he flashes and shows that he can/will be an exciting player....who occassionally will break your heart with drops or just by vanishing.....only had one big game all season and a few disappointing injuries, which caused him to miss pre-season and several regular season games.....in the end, it was a disappointing season and certainly not what we "hoped" to see.....but I see enough talent that Id expect a much better season next year, assuming he can stay healthy.... E. Ogbah....2-32....technically #32 is a first rounder.....Ogbah was ranked high, but not on anybodies radar prior to the draft. I read back and really nobody was stumping for this guy....so, to me, it was a ho hum pick(and I HATED the idea of him as an OLB)....BUT, in the end, he gave us exactly what we hoped to see.....a DE that can get to the QB and has the speed to play the run.....And, even on a shitty defense, you could see him clearly getting better as the season wore on......and he put up good consistent numbers for a de, in terms of tackles, etc......based upon his visible growth, he should be much better next season.....easily our best pick..... C. Nassib....3-65....I loved this pick and had Nassib on my pre-draft list as a worthwhile project player.....and he started nicely, flashing in pre-season, then having a solid game #1....but.....then.....he vanished....then hurt his hand and missed games.....then came back, but was still invisible.......I love his fire and personality and am REALLY rooting for him to add strength and raise the bar on his game next year....BUT, based upon that early flash, I have to say Im pretty disappointed in his lack of development and overall performance.....fingers crossed for next season..... S. Coleman....3-76....obviously not a productive season.....so, year one = nada....future bust? future star?.....who knows..... C. Kessler....3-93....easily summarized.....didnt like taking a backup with a 3rd rounder and still dont...and predicted we'd still need a QB and we still do.....so, for me, this was a wasted pick on a guy we could have tapped much later.....none the less, since he was a UDFA level player(in my mind), Id say he played better than I expected and looks like he might, at least, be a back up(which we will always need).....hope he gets better.... J. Schobert....4-99.....I kinda liked this guys as a 5th rounder and thought he went a tad early......since we were desperate for OLBs, I was happy to see one FINALLY brought in(too little too late tho).....but was disappointed he was the only one......he did NOT look good in pre-season, so I was AMAZED to see him as the starter.....and not so amazed when he finally hit the bench.....he did not have a good season and did not show measurable improvment...say hello to Tank Carder on the outside.....4th rounder will stick for a while and add a tackle here and there......eh.... R. Louis....4-119....eh 2....nothing exciting here....not sure what to make of him..... D. Kindred....4-129.....our second best pick, right here.....looked good in pre-season and showed improvement going forward....I have high hopes that he can return in year 2 and solidify the SS position..... S. Devalve...4-138....a middle pick and a middle type performance....he looks ok....seems to be able to catch.....and has gained reps late in the season(which is good)....bodes well for him and not so well for Telfer.....willing to wait and see if he develops into a player..... S. Payton...5-154....this was a bit of a wtf pick, because it was WR #3 and I was shocked....none the less, he was touted as sure handed, reliable, the all-time USC wr, etc etc.....then he missed training camp(bad)......then he went all season and didnt play(bad).....then he got busted for PED's and suspended(very bad).....in the end, this is looking like a very shitty pick....it happens S. Drango...5-168....at the time of this pick, Drango looked like a steal....touted to go higher(I believe)....but we rate him as a 5th, because he was a 5th.....and I think he did pretty well.....with all the OL problems, he got his reps and never really stood out as the problem....which is good.....looks like he WILL develop, and Id expect him to stick for a while....good pick, me thinks.... S. Higgins...5-172....another guy that seemed like a good value pick, tho I was still rattled by selecting yet another WR.....lots of folks were really hyped by this guy during camp(tho Im not sure why).....he had a couple drops and bumps, but in the little time he played, Id say he did pretty well....got no qualms with him and think he also will stick(over Payton and Louis) and become the next WR behind the starters.... T. Caldwell..6th....eh, been on PS all season, which is par for the course if you're a 6th rounder......next year he grows or goes ... Scooby....7th....loved Scooby and was really happy they selected him.....I thought he actually showed better in pre-season, then Schobert and flashed on special teams....unfortunately for him, Carder and Alexander flashed more on D, sealing his fate to PS......AND, unfortunately again, another team had eyes for him and stole him away.....shit happens..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Richiswhere Posted December 24, 2016 Report Share Posted December 24, 2016 How in the hell does Gilbert get a D? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mudfly Posted December 24, 2016 Author Report Share Posted December 24, 2016 How in the hell does Gilbert get a D? And here we go....quibble time... He gets a D, because he made the roster and played.......would only be an F if he was cut and there was zero contribution.... and if you read the progression.....he is now rated an F.....even though we still have draft capital with his name on it.....so that F should be a D-, now that I think about it..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Richiswhere Posted December 24, 2016 Report Share Posted December 24, 2016 And here we go....quibble time... He gets a D, because he made the roster and played.......would only be an F if he was cut and there was zero contribution.... and if you read the progression.....he is now rated an F.....even though we still have draft capital with his name on it.....so that F should be a D-, now that I think about it..... Quibble time? WTF are you talking about the guy flat out sucked he could not cover anyone and the only reason he made the roster was because he was the 8th pick in the draft. F- is more like it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mudfly Posted December 24, 2016 Author Report Share Posted December 24, 2016 Great...thanks for the input..... Ill look forward to your draft analysis and grading system......and will expect an F for Gilbert.... Merry Christmas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Richiswhere Posted December 24, 2016 Report Share Posted December 24, 2016 Great...thanks for the input..... Ill look forward to your draft analysis and grading system......and will expect an F for Gilbert.... Merry Christmas. Your welcome I am glad I could correct your mistake. BTW there isn't another soul on this board that would give Gilbert anything more that a F. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaconHound Posted December 24, 2016 Report Share Posted December 24, 2016 Pretty much on the money, Mud. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mudfly Posted December 24, 2016 Author Report Share Posted December 24, 2016 Your welcome I am glad I could correct your mistake. BTW there isn't another soul on this board that would give Gilbert anything more that a F. Well....I count at least 1..... Pretty much on the money, Mud. or...maybe 2.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hoorta Posted December 24, 2016 Report Share Posted December 24, 2016 Your welcome I am glad I could correct your mistake. BTW there isn't another soul on this board that would give Gilbert anything more that a F. I agree, if you're a first round pick, just making the roster is a given. Sucking majorly while on it is fail = F. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orion Posted December 24, 2016 Report Share Posted December 24, 2016 Nice evaluation. I think, unless Nassib starts juicing, he's going to slowly melt away. NFL OLinemen kept him in check relatively easily. He's better suited to basketball. I did not want Coleman as our #1 pick either. I wanted a big receiver. But of the top 4 receivers he's actually produced fairly well...even with all of the time lost for his broken hand. Will Fuller was the best producer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tiamat63 Posted December 24, 2016 Report Share Posted December 24, 2016 Nice evaluation. I think, unless Nassib starts juicing, he's going to slowly melt away. NFL OLinemen kept him in check relatively easily. He's better suited to basketball. I did not want Coleman as our #1 pick either. I wanted a big receiver. But of the top 4 receivers he's actually produced fairly well...even with all of the time lost for his broken hand. Will Fuller was the best producer. The pick I hounded for might have something to say about that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Canton Dawg Posted December 24, 2016 Report Share Posted December 24, 2016 Well....I count at least 1..... or...maybe 2.... Make that 3. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wargograw Posted December 24, 2016 Report Share Posted December 24, 2016 Nice thread. Questions: Why did you give Bitonio a B+ for this year? Would it take away from the overall point of the thread here to consider what we got in return for trading players we picked (like in West's case)? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Flugel Posted December 25, 2016 Report Share Posted December 25, 2016 Nice thread. Questions: Why did you give Bitonio a B+ for this year? Would it take away from the overall point of the thread here to consider what we got in return for trading players we picked (like in West's case)? Fwiw, it looked like we ran the ball really well for a big stretch while was healthy. I think Crow was averaging above 6 yards a carry for about 4 weeks early. On top of that, his experience and chemistry on the left side was missed. It's really shown up when our inexperienced LG and Center has whiffed against x-stunts up front. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mudfly Posted December 25, 2016 Author Report Share Posted December 25, 2016 Nice thread. Questions: Why did you give Bitonio a B+ for this year? Would it take away from the overall point of the thread here to consider what we got in return for trading players we picked (like in West's case)? Well...I down graded Bito for last season, because I felt his performance had dropped some....but this season, he was back to a high level.....(until injured).....and that was apparent in the drop off to the running game.....so B+... I didnt get wrapped up in the returns for some of these guys....tho in Wests case, we got nothing.....the conditional 7th was withdrawn when the Tits cut him.... However....we do have a 5th and 6th for Mingo and Gilbert.....so there is a very slight chance that a contributor still might be found.....very slight.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
D Bone Posted December 25, 2016 Report Share Posted December 25, 2016 S. Payton...5-154....this was a bit of a wtf pick, because it was WR #3 and I was shocked....none the less, he was touted as sure handed, reliable, the all-time USC wr, etc etc.....then he missed training camp(bad)......then he went all season and didnt play(bad).....then he got busted for PED's and suspended(very bad).....in the end, this is looking like a very shitty pick....it happens What the hell kind of crap is this ^? Dude went to UCLA not USC....... What a shitty analysis........ Nice read Mud and Merry Christmas! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Unsympathetic Posted December 25, 2016 Report Share Posted December 25, 2016 Footnote of the season regarding the 2016 draft: Goff went 11/24 for 90 yards, 1 TD, 2 INT against the 49ers. labeling him Not Good is an understatement.. Thank God we have Coleman rather than Goff, even with the issues noted above regarding Coleman! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted December 27, 2016 Report Share Posted December 27, 2016 Nice work. A little harsh on Coleman with D+. 28 catches 373 yards 13.3 ypc 3 TDS in 9 starts isn't great, but it isn't dogshit for a rookie WR lined up with another inexperienced wr, thrown to by a rook and some vets under duress. Extrapolated over 16 games, his stats are 50 Catches, 663 Yards, 5 TDs. I think that would compare favorably with most mid-first-round WRs over the years. Zombo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clevfan4life Posted December 27, 2016 Report Share Posted December 27, 2016 Can i quibble? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mudfly Posted December 27, 2016 Author Report Share Posted December 27, 2016 Nice work. A little harsh on Coleman with D+. Zombo Perhaps a "little" harsh....but, keep in mind that "expected performance" would be a C.....and I think his was less than expected(or hoped for)....and, while his stats aren't terrible in terms of catches/yards,,,,,I considered a C-, but was swayed to go lower because of his excessive drops and extra low catch percentage, both of which are what you'd expect from a late round, udfa type player...not #15 in the first..... He was the 1st receiver taken....look back and see what the others did and then the D+ seems just about right..... Can i quibble? absolutely...just hoping it's relevant to this years draft......fire away.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted December 27, 2016 Report Share Posted December 27, 2016 Perhaps a "little" harsh....but, keep in mind that "expected performance" would be a C.....and I think his was less than expected(or hoped for)....and, while his stats aren't terrible in terms of catches/yards,,,,,I considered a C-, but was swayed to go lower because of his excessive drops and extra low catch percentage, both of which are what you'd expect from a late round, udfa type player...not #15 in the first..... He was the 1st receiver taken....look back and see what the others did and then the D+ seems just about right..... absolutely...just hoping it's relevant to this years draft......fire away.... So you are holding him to the standard of First We Taken, and not WRs drafted mid-round? His fault there wasn't a Sammy Watkins this year? You give a guy a D for putting on pants. I'd think his production would get him out of the Ds Henry Higgins has 6 catches none in the last month, and he got a boost. Z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mudfly Posted December 28, 2016 Author Report Share Posted December 28, 2016 Ok...you make a fair argument.....Ill agree to a C- ..... But...if you look back(and I did)....the receivers picked where he was(and later) all have better stats and year 1's than he does.....all of em....and WAY fewer drops and WAY higher catch percentages.... Odell Beckham(13), Brandon Cooks(20), DeAndre Hopkins(27), Michael Floyd(13), Kendall Wright(20), Demario Thomas(20), Dez Bryant(24).... And the ones with less, have all been busts.....so, his #'s dont stand the test against mid to late 1st round picks either.....and no where close to higher picks and the guys who are now #1's and stars......ala Julio, AJ, Evans, Cooper, etc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mudfly Posted December 28, 2016 Author Report Share Posted December 28, 2016 Here's another way to look at it.....Coleman has a 43% catch percentage.....which ranks him 376th in the league(out of 400)......so there's that...... And, if we are going to use the "it's the QB" excuse....lets looks at the other Browns who have had the same shitty QB rotation.....say the last 2 seasons, to get a good perspective..... 75% - Devalve 68% - Barnidge 62% - Hartline 59% - Gabriel 57% - Hawkins 55% - Higgins 55% - Benji 54% - Pryor 50% - Payton 47% - Louis 43% - Coleman 39% - Bowe......(so, the only one he beat was Bowe....and 1 more catch would put Bowe ahead) It is what it is.....which is a very low # for the guy we hoped would be a #1....... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clevfan4life Posted December 28, 2016 Report Share Posted December 28, 2016 .. absolutely...just hoping it's relevant to this years draft......fire away.... Well maybe not a full quibble, how bout a quabble? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mudfly Posted December 28, 2016 Author Report Share Posted December 28, 2016 quabble away.....Im ready.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clevfan4life Posted December 28, 2016 Report Share Posted December 28, 2016 quabble away.....Im ready.... Well...................i was kinda just trolling with the word. I have neither a quibble nor a quabble. Strange.....bait was out....... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stillmotion Posted December 28, 2016 Report Share Posted December 28, 2016 i love it when mud crunches stats. anyways I'm with a C - for Coleman. Let's hope he grows and has an awesome year next year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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