AJ McCarron Possible Next Browns QB

[Tour2ma]

Tour, I'm not going to quibble over which player is considered slightly better.

 

Last, I didn't hear Polians remarks but I have to wonder if the real roadblock to a trade for McCarron isn't a reluctance on the Bengals part to trade McCarron to a division rival, but rather...the reluctance of the Browns franchise to send a high draft pick to Cincy.

 

That's OK... I wasn't looking for an argument, even an argument-lite, just laying out an alternative take.

 

Giving a division rival ammo is always a consideration no matter the form it takes. Not nearly on the same scale, but it shocked me a couple years ago when Cinci let Hawkins come to us in FA for not much more money. But deals happen as we saw when the Steelers ponied up for Gilbert.

 

At the risk of stating the obvious... each just has to be secure in the knowledge that they got the better of the deal... or they'll be a special level of hell to pay if the fan base sees they did not.

 

As for my own personal opinion, when I look at ceilings I see Grop as more of a gunglsinger (Brees) and McCarron more of manager (Smith).

 

Explains why I don't like Jimmy G all that much... my gunslinger aversion genome.

 

Although I do like Brees... guess he's not one in my book.

 

Oh, and here's the latest scuttled butt about McCarron being traded. When asked today about the rumors of a trade Marvin answered by saying...."Well, ante up."

 

FWIW that's a big change from the last time Marvin answered the question in March when he flatly told Mike Florio McCarron wouldn't be traded this offseason.

 

So is Marvin's job safe?

[Umadogg1]

Tour, yeah, I think Marvin is safe. I once felt Vance Joseph was going to be his successor, and it could still happen if Joseph doesn't get a team of his own this year. But for the most part the Bengals pipeline of fresh NFL head coaches has run dry.

[darren15]

Given a choice ....who starts in 2017

 

Jimmy Garappolo for Pick 12

Tyrod Taylor in FA

AJ McCarron for a 3rd rounder

Mitch Trubisky

Deshaun Watson

Deshone Kizer

RG3

Josh McCown

CodyKessler

Other

[jcam222]

Assuming the price for Garoppolo is pick 12 would you rather a) trade for JG or trade the pick out to next year to draft in a much deeper QB draft

[Umadogg1]

AJ McCarron for a 3rd round pick?

 

You guys might as well get used to the idea of RGIII starting again...because the Bengals turned down a 2nd and a 4th for McCarron last year.

 

How about this for a hypothetical trade. Send pick #33 and a 6th rounder to the Patriots for their 1st rounder. Doesn't matter how low it is because IMO the thing the Bengals want most is a pick that comes with a 5-year contract. Then send the Patriots 1st rounder and one of your own mid round picks to the Bengals.

 

Too much?

[Canton Mike]

I would be happy with either Garoppolo or McCarron. Either one is an instant upgraded starter & allows us to go after defensive play makers. As far as price? Time will tell, but I do NOT want to spend either of my 1st round picks this year on them.

 

Mike

[The Gipper]

Given a choice ....who starts in 2017

 

Jimmy Garappolo for Pick 12

Tyrod Taylor in FA

AJ McCarron for a 3rd rounder

Mitch Trubisky

Deshaun Watson

Deshone Kizer

RG3

Josh McCown

CodyKessler

Other

The Browns acquire all of the above....after each one succesively gets injured.

[jcam222]

I would be happy with either Garoppolo or McCarron. Either one is an instant upgraded starter & allows us to go after defensive play makers. As far as price? Time will tell, but I do NOT want to spend either of my 1st round picks this year on them.

 

Mike

i'm not convinced either of them are in improvement over Kessler behind an improved line.

[Tour2ma]

I think both have stronger arms... but we've been down the stronger arm path before.

 

One more thing on Jimmy G... if he was a gunslinger in college, isn't it likely that has been trained out of him in NE? His 4 TD 0 INT showing in 2016 would seem to suggest that.

 

You guys might as well get used to the idea of RGIII starting again...because the Bengals turned down a 2nd and a 4th for McCarron last year.

 

Actually RG3 starting in 2017 is pretty much where I am already... not thrilled by the idea, but it feels like the reality.

 

As for McCarron's value... not sure it holds with only one more year to go until he hits FA. Certainly the number of suitors will ultimately determine his price and CIN could play the Philly game and hold a good option for teams that lose starters to injury next preseason.

 

Same for Jimmy G... I mean, if NE let Collins go in his contract year for essentially a high 4th... Granted some issues with Collins did leak in response to Pat fan outcry, but the final contract year factor set the price as low as it ended up being.

[Umadogg1]

Tour, any team trading for McCarron now could conceivably do so with the idea of giving him a 2-year audition at a bargain price. Consider, he's under contract in 2017 at roughly 750k and as a RFA in 2018 could be offered a tender contract at whatever round and corresponding price the Browns felt another team wouldn't match. Even if McCarron were given a 1st round tender offer the cost would be peanuts when compared to that of a 1st round draft pick like a Trubisky or Watson.

 

As for suitors, the advantages McCarron could offer the Browns are obvious and have already been noted, but from what I've read the Bears and Bills are the favorites to go hard for him. But in the event nobody agrees to match the Bengals asking price the Bengals will just keep as a backup until he leaves in FA, then pocket the comp pick they'd get in 2019. That's not a bad worst-case scenario IMO. That said, McCarron's trade price now is considered much greater than the Bengals would get if they waited for the comp pick, and by all accounts they don't want to wait. And McCarron doesn't want to wait either. He's itching for the chance to start and knows he won't get the chance in Cincy as long as Dalton is there.

[stillmotion]

i'm camp jimmy g. wanted him to begin with instead of manziel.

[Tour2ma]

Tour, any team trading for McCarron now could conceivably do so with the idea of giving him a 2-year audition at a bargain price. Consider, he's under contract in 2017 at roughly 750k and as a RFA in 2018 could be offered a tender contract at whatever round and corresponding price the Browns felt another team wouldn't match. Even if McCarron were given a 1st round tender offer the cost would be peanuts when compared to that of a 1st round draft pick like a Trubisky or Watson.

 

As for suitors, the advantages McCarron could offer the Browns are obvious and have already been noted, but from what I've read the Bears and Bills are the favorites to go hard for him. But in the event nobody agrees to match the Bengals asking price the Bengals will just keep as a backup until he leaves in FA, then pocket the comp pick they'd get in 2019. That's not a bad worst-case scenario IMO. That said, McCarron's trade price now is considered much greater than the Bengals would get if they waited for the comp pick, and by all accounts they don't want to wait. And McCarron doesn't want to wait either. He's itching for the chance to start and knows he won't get the chance in Cincy as long as Dalton is there.

 

AJ will be coming off a 4-year deal, so the way I understand the RFA rule he'll be a UFA in 2018. Only players coming off three-year pacts are eligible to be RFA's. So the lack of any assurance you can sign him does hold the price down.

 

But the comp pick for 2018 would apply. Let's say a 3rd would be his likely comp.

 

A 2018 3rd is essentially a 2017 4th... that establishes a floor to be bested. If multiple teams are interested... really interested... then who knows how high the bidding goes, but it's hard for me to see a 2017 1st, let alone a 1st and another pick.

 

A 2017 2nd and 4th? Better... but not our #33. I think our 2.18 (#50) plus our 4.01 would be my limit... and it's a damned sight better than a 2018 - 3.32+...

[Umadogg1]

I tried to explain the RFA wrinkle earlier. According to ESPN and CincyJungle.com McCarron didn't accrue a season towards FA because he wasn't active and didn't practice his rookie season. If they're wrong they're wrong, but I'll defer to them until a better source appears. That said, if they're correct then you can see how there might be an advantage to trading for McCarron over Garrapalo.

 

And again, the Bengals turned down a 2nd and a 4th for McCarron last year. One year later you may think a single 4th round pick represents the floor where bidding starts, but the only thing an offer like that will get you is the chance to draft another version of Cody Kessler this year. Myself, I wouldn't hate the idea, but if any of you loved the idea you wouldn't be split into Camp Trubisky, Camp Garrappalo, Camp McCarron, or Camp whatever.

 

As for your hypothetical trade ceiling, the lower 2nd round pick(#50) and a 4th round sweetener is a realistic offer....the first one I've heard....and if it were up to me I'd accept.

[hoorta]

AJ McCarron for a 3rd round pick?

 

You guys might as well get used to the idea of RGIII starting again...because the Bengals turned down a 2nd and a 4th for McCarron last year.

 

How about this for a hypothetical trade. Send pick #33 and a 6th rounder to the Patriots for their 1st rounder. Doesn't matter how low it is because IMO the thing the Bengals want most is a pick that comes with a 5-year contract. Then send the Patriots 1st rounder and one of your own mid round picks to the Bengals.

 

Too much?

 

Yes. MHO Uma- the Browns #1, #12, and #33 will only be traded for more picks, not players. & I think Zombo's been smokin' something if he thinks Garropolo is worth our #12. Not sure what McCarron is worth, but if Dalton is better in Lewis' mind that puts a ceiling in my mind how much AJ is worth. Different situation than Jimmy not being able to beat out a future HOFer.

[Tour2ma]

I tried to explain the RFA wrinkle earlier. According to ESPN and CincyJungle.com McCarron didn't accrue a season towards FA because he wasn't active and didn't practice his rookie season. If they're wrong they're wrong, but I'll defer to them until a better source appears. That said, if they're correct then you can see how there might be an advantage to trading for McCarron over Garrapalo.

 

And again, the Bengals turned down a 2nd and a 4th for McCarron last year. One year later you may think a single 4th round pick represents the floor where bidding starts, but the only thing an offer like that will get you is the chance to draft another version of Cody Kessler this year. Myself, I wouldn't hate the idea, but if any of you loved the idea you wouldn't be split into Camp Trubisky, Camp Garrappalo, Camp McCarron, or Camp whatever.

 

As for your hypothetical trade ceiling, the lower 2nd round pick(#50) and a 4th round sweetener is a realistic offer....the first one I've heard....and if it were up to me I'd accept.

 

My apologies... I now remember you posting about his extensive, 1st-year idling keeping it from accruing. That may be the case. Certainly can't blame you for sticking with your sources.

 

I looked at overthecap.com and they have AJ slated to be a UFA in 2017. They may be simply going on contract years, but do show AJ as having three accrued seasons... the same as Josh Gordon drafted 2 years earlier... and the same as our Glenn Winston, who has barely seen the active roster let alone the field in four years.

 

If Cinci plays the waiting game thru 2018, then one other factor that starts creeping in is AJ's age. He's 26 now... still young-ish, but add a year or two...

 

As for alternatives... as of now:

• I'm in Camp Kizer, but only at #33 as our draft now stands and I'm not exactly dug in on him.
• As a former Tour Darkhorse, who was test fired down the stretch in 2015, AJ's as attractive a back-up as I see out there.
• However, I've a work to do on the class including my current 2017 Darkhorse leader, Chad Kelly, who distracted me when I was trying to evaluate a couple Ole Miss OL last year.

Good discussion...

[Flugel]

Do we really need another QB that can't beat the Squealers?

 

Actually CD, he was doing a pretty good job of beating Pittsburgh when he erased a 4th quarter deficit if memory serves me right. They were working on adding to the lead and chewing up clock late in the game when RB Jeremy Hill fumbled the ball back over to Pitt in the red zone. That was before Burfict and Pac Man reminded everyone on the planet why you need to count on better minds than loose cannons.

 

If anything, McCarron looked a lot closer to winning a playoff game than Carson Palmer and Andy Dalton were in previous years. He'd have some familiarity and comfort with Hue's offense. Looks like the Cincy offense and Dalton missed that comfort and familiarity in 2016.

 

I told Canton Mike back in November we can probably get McCarron as a FA (rather than trading picks/players) after his first contract is over which I think would make him available to us in 2018.

 

I also like the Garroppolo idea; because BB has a team/situation where he can be patient to fill the small few openings necessary. That being the case, we can offer future high round picks from 2018 and/or 2019 as well as a mid round pick this year. If the league ever clears Potsy Gordon, we can throw him into that trade as well. It ain't like the guy can ever pass drug tests long enough to make it sting. For example, he's only suited up 5 times since 2013 as we speak here in 2017.

 

I'm not sure I like the Tyrod Taylor idea any more than consideration of DeShaun Watson. Once upon a time, Vince Young and RG3 were rookies of the year playing RB from the QB. After VY pulled his hammy and then his groin, his NFL game was shotso prior to RG3 walking into a similar fate following injuries. No thanks!

[Umadogg1]

Tour, no apologies required as ESPN and CincyJungle.com may yet be proven wrong. But some of what they're saying makes sense. For example, the Bengals didn't let McCarron practice during his rookie season even after he was eligible to do so. Rather, they let him attend meetings but never medically cleared him to practice, and that latter point seems to be where things get fuzzy. At the time it just seemed like they were simply being cautious with a an injured player, but now it seems things may not have been so simple after all. There may have been a method to their madness.

 

It should also be noted that McCarron has never complained about the way his rookie season was handled. He may or may not have accrued a season towards RFA, but he did get paid, the Bengals covered his medical expenses, and McCarron had access to professional medical and training staff staffs during his rehab. To be fair, he did express disappointment about the way he fell to the 5th round after being told he'd likely be a 2nd or 3rd round pick, but post draft he seemed to realize just how close he came to being undrafted.

 

Also, if you bothered looking on overthecap.com you may have noticed McCarron's 2017 salary is even cheaper than I claimed. According to Sportrac.com the actual figure is just 620k, not the rounded up 750k I used. Quite frankly, all I was trying to do is show how acquiring McCarron was less expensive than Garrapalo.

 

Last, the Bengals may indeed play the waiting game with McCarron but they've sent mixed signals. Marvin Lewis has repeatedly said the Bengals weren't interested in trading McCarron, but that only prompted owner Mike Brown to come out of hibernation last year to utter the immortal words...."Not so fast." Perhaps that explains why Lewis didn't flatly reject the idea of a trade the last time he was asked.

[Umadogg1]

Hoorta, I'm not sure I'm buying the rant you're selling. New England has a better starting QB than Cincy, but if both backups are deemed to be ready to start, as Polian claims, I wouldn't expect Cincy to offer a Tom Brady related discount.

 

That said, Flugel tripped over something that does work in the favor of a team looking to trade for McCarron, but it doesn't involve waiting until he's a FA. McCarron has dropped more than a few hints about his unwillingness to re-sign with Cincy should he ever become a FA. There's no rancor between the player and the coaching staff or ownership, but McCarron wants a chance to be a starting QB in the NFL and he feels like he's ready now. By openly stating his reluctance to sign a 2nd contract with the Bengals McCarron is trying to motivate the Bengals to trade him now. By all accounts it's working.

 

And there's the rub because if it's working it becomes far less likely any team interested in acquiring his services can wait for him to reach FA.

[RoyceRolls]

I still don't see the bengals trading a QB within the division. If McCarron is traded to the Browns, I will view it as an indictment on his ability to start in the NFL.

[Flugel]

I still don't see the bengals trading a QB within the division. If McCarron is traded to the Browns, I will view it as an indictment on his ability to start in the NFL.

 

Precisely. That's exactly where I am about the trade idea within the division.

 

Aside from that, I also try to envision what Cody Kessler would have looked like with a well experienced/highly talented AJ Green on 1 side of formation and a TD machine like Tyler Eifert (13 TDs) at TE working in tandem with a decent running game and offensive line. I'm guessing there's a lot more trust from inexperienced QB in more polished WRs than using 2 first year starters outside. I'm not guaranteed McCarron would have had any better luck with OUR WRs than all the QBs that got punished in the pocket while inexperience on the perimeter rarely received as much credit as our QBs or offensive line.

 

My McCarron idea required patience in lieu of knee jerking. We can wait a year. We have enough draft picks to pull the trigger on a guy like Chad Kelly later in the draft (coming off an ACL injury that will prevent him from workouts). While Bama caused some very bad decisions out of him during a game Ole Miss scored about 37 points on them in 2016 (when most SEC teams only scored 1 TD or less vrs Bama) - he was the only QB/passing game that beat the National Champion Bama team in 2015. And his go-to WR (LaQuan Treadwill) wasn't even good enough to start on the Minnesota Vikings in 2016. I think Kelly has some good football worth tapping if the right team takes him. Wasn't that the case with Dak Prescott from another Mississippi school? If we take him with the understanding we don't have to race him out there before he's ready or our oline is ready to protect the QB - we could be the right place.

 

Some years there just isn't a first round QB; and we've learned that the hard way every damn time we tried to pretend there was...

[RoyceRolls]

As much as I want to solve the eternal deficiency at QB, I can't see passing on the franchise level defenders available at 1. Part of me (the eternal optimist part, probably) wouldn't mind handing the keys to Kessler and seeing what he can do in year 2.

[Umadogg1]

If either McCarron or Garrapalo is traded to the Browns I'd look at it as an example of the Browns outbidding other teams for a FA they feel would be an upgrade. No more, no less.

 

Of course you can argue that a new QB is unlikely to fare any better than the current bunch due to the overall crapfest that is the rest of your roster, but you can use the same argument to talk yourself out of any player at any position. Just as you could flip the rant and argue Joe Thomas isn't worth spit because you can easily go 1-15 with a vastly inferior player.

 

But that's the same type of nonsense rant that sometimes convinces a team it doesn't need an Alex Mack, Mitchell Schwartz, Travis Benjamin, etc.

 

Myself, I don't care if you guys prefer to wait or don't want McCarron at all. As I said earlier, if I were in your shoes I'd prefer Garrapalo and I wouldn't mind taking a longer look at Kessler. So clearly this isn't an example of me doing a hard sell. I don't really care where McCarron is traded to as long as the price is right.

 

Besides, as a Bengal fan there's a part of me that hopes your team keeps trotting out fresh versions of RG3, Josh McCown, Brandon Weeden, or Johnny Feetball. So yeah, Chad Kelly. You should do that.

[Tour2ma]

Tour, no apologies required as ESPN and CincyJungle.com may yet be proven wrong. But some of what they're saying makes sense. For example, the Bengals didn't let McCarron practice during his rookie season even after he was eligible to do so. Rather, they let him attend meetings but never medically cleared him to practice, and that latter point seems to be where things get fuzzy. At the time it just seemed like they were simply being cautious with a an injured player, but now it seems things may not have been so simple after all. There may have been a method to their madness.

 

Also, if you bothered looking on overthecap.com you may have noticed McCarron's 2017 salary is even cheaper than I claimed. According to Sportrac.com the actual figure is just 620k, not the rounded up 750k I used. Quite frankly, all I was trying to do is show how acquiring McCarron was less expensive than Garrapalo.

 

Last, the Bengals may indeed play the waiting game with McCarron but they've sent mixed signals. Marvin Lewis has repeatedly said the Bengals weren't interested in trading McCarron, but that only prompted owner Mike Brown to come out of hibernation last year to utter the immortal words...."Not so fast." Perhaps that explains why Lewis didn't flatly reject the idea of a trade the last time he was asked.

 

Too late... I only offer one apology per poster and now you've had yours... It is hard for me to believe the NLFPA hasn't injected themselves into Cinci's handling of AJ.

 

Not seeing a $620k figure on his overthecap page, but no matter as I got the point you were making. There's a decent difference between a R2 rookie's contract and a R5's...

 

Precisely. That's exactly where I am about the trade idea within the division.

 

My McCarron idea required patience in lieu of knee jerking. We can wait a year.

 

I think Kelly has some good football worth tapping if the right team takes him. Wasn't that the case with Dak Prescott from another Mississippi school? If we take him with the understanding we don't have to race him out there before he's ready or our oline is ready to protect the QB - we could be the right place.

 

Some years there just isn't a first round QB; and we've learned that the hard way every damn time we tried to pretend there was...

 

While within the division would not be a first choice, it's a choice. So it depends on the premium we might offer. How much of a premium would I be willing to pay? Not much is about as far as I can quantify it. But I think that #58 mid-2nd rounder I maxed out at in my earlier hypothetical would be a pretty tasty inducement.

 

And I agree we can wait a year. It fits with my impression that RG did enough, showed enough late to get another shot in '17. Do I think he's the solution? Should be obvious by now that's a "big, fat no."

 

Ditto on Cahd and lessons learned... or should have been learned about the dangers of need.

[Tour2ma]

As much as I want to solve the eternal deficiency at QB, I can't see passing on the franchise level defenders available at 1. Part of me (the eternal optimist part, probably) wouldn't mind handing the keys to Kessler and seeing what he can do in year 2.

 

Yup... goes back to player evaluations. I see no more sure-fire pick than Allen and he fills a need. While I see no sure-fire QBs, the rarest of the rare draft commodity, if I thought there was one who came close, whose odds of success were very high, then I'd roll the dice with him.

 

Still work to do, but not seeing one yet and simply being "the best in the class" isn't good enough... not even when it is "merely" the #1 overall at risk.

[RoyceRolls]

I wouldn't mind taking Kizer at 12, if he's there. My gut feeling is that he will start to rise on draft boards throughout the pre-draft process. The kid is a bit of a project, but he has all the tools.

[calfoxwc]

So did RGIII... except seeing the field, quickly. I think Kizer is like that.

[medicineman]

Why not just tough it out with Kessler or RG3? I understand that RG3 is fragile but we need to build a solid O line first. Both of these guys know the play book they are getting to know each other as well. Let's get Pryor signed, Sign another #1 wide out from FA or trade for 1 then go from there. I don't think a QB is the key bit a solid O line is.

[Flugel]

Why not just tough it out with Kessler or RG3? I understand that RG3 is fragile but we need to build a solid O line first. Both of these guys know the play book they are getting to know each other as well. Let's get Pryor signed, Sign another #1 wide out from FA or trade for 1 then go from there. I don't think a QB is the key bit a solid O line is.

 

I'm starting to think we should go with Kessler in 2017 as well. If we can give him the margin of error from our defense that other QBs in this league get from their defense, we might not always be behind 7-0 just 2-3 minutes after the coin toss we defer.

 

We have the picks in this coming draft to improve our defense - if used right...

[Tour2ma]

Just don't see a "field stretcher" in Kess... frees the Safeties to get too involved in the hit parade around the LOS.

[TexasAg1969]

Just don't see a "field stretcher" in Kess... frees the Safeties to get too involved in the hit parade around the LOS.

 

Apparently neither did Hue since he benched him for not stretching the field if I recall correctly. That would tell me that in practice/preparation he was able to do so, but in games he did not, thus leading to the benching.