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Watson Undraftable

CaineDeSoulis

By CaineDeSoulis
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Flugel Grand Master

Flugel

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https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1_-SienfT3umX0HKxRyQqyXM9BqHrotdcQA6W-V_pDiY/edit#gid=156597622

 

49Mph Ball velocity

 

Talk about a noodle arm.

 

Well i guess we now know why scouts were giving him a mid round grade. Other 2016 QBs

 

Trubisky 55

Mahomes 60

Kizer 56

Webb 59

 

Ive been hearing how important that stuff is dating back to the urgency to send Paul Wardield packing in order to move up for the bionic arm about to fit the tighter windows of the NFL back when there were no 5 yard pass restrictions allowing Mel Bount to smother WRs all over the field. It only made sense the only MVP I'd ever see QBing us was a 13th round QB that became the eventual solution to Mike Phipps. Sounds like we never had any reasons to let DA or Weeden go if that stuff above matters most. Who needs touch, vision or pocket presence in a place like Cleveland?

 

Did anyone tell the former NFL DC and Head Coach (Nick Saban) this terrific news before his elite defense stockpiled with the most 1st and 2nd round defensive NFL prospects before he lost the National Championship Game (and in spite of giving up 41 points to Clemson the year before)?

 

I was waiting to see this weak arm I've heard so much about at the combines on the out-routes up against how many QBs looked better throwing those? Nobody did especially Mahomes and the rest of the homies on your list. Not only was the timing perfect - but in almost every case, the ball was placed between the WR and the sideline. I thought Trubisky came closest; but one or 2 of his were behind the WR, which is a pick when there's a cornerback involved in the scenario. And when the QBs were being instructed to put air under the football in the drill where they were throwing it deeper, should the radar gun matter?

 

I think there's way more hype against Watson than there is for him especially in here.

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The Gipper Newbie

The Gipper

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Velocity isn't what should concern you about Watson. If anything it's one of the lower traits you should identify in your list of things that make a good QB.

So you say....what do NFL GMs and coaches and scouts say?

again...that "historical data" would be interesting.. Someone said that no one with such a low velocity has ever succeeded in the NFL. I would like to see that data.

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The Gipper Newbie

The Gipper

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Pretty much the exact same thing. Unless you think QB's like Weeden are all the rage?

No...you made a suggestion that velocity does not matter AT ALL. While certainly other factors perhaps matter more...do scouts in fact have an issue with a guy with such a low velocity.

Go ahead and show me a statement by an NFL scout that MPH don't matter.

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hoorta Veteran

hoorta

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Ive been hearing how important that stuff is dating back to the urgency to send Paul Wardield packing in order to move up for the bionic arm about to fit the tighter windows of the NFL back when there were no 5 yard pass restrictions allowing Mel Bount to smother WRs all over the field. It only made sense the only MVP I'd ever see QBing us was a 13th round QB that became the eventual solution to Mike Phipps. Sounds like we never had any reasons to let DA or Weeden go if that stuff above matters most. Who needs touch, vision or pocket presence in a place like Cleveland?

 

Did anyone tell the former NFL DC and Head Coach (Nick Saban) this terrific news before his elite defense stockpiled with the most 1st and 2nd round defensive NFL prospects before he lost the National Championship Game (and in spite of giving up 41 points to Clemson the year before)?

 

I was waiting to see this weak arm I've heard so much about at the combines on the out-routes up against how many QBs looked better throwing those? Nobody did especially Mahomes and the rest of the homies on your list. Not only was the timing perfect - but in almost every case, the ball was placed between the WR and the sideline. I thought Trubisky came closest; but one or 2 of his were behind the WR, which is a pick when there's a cornerback involved in the scenario. And when the QBs were being instructed to put air under the football in the drill where they were throwing it deeper, should the radar gun matter?

 

I think there's way more hype against Watson than there is for him especially in here.

Just hang onto those great games against 'Bama. Or those nice Combine throws with no defenders around. Now I know why Williams had to get all those jump balls, it was getting there S-L-O-W.

 

If you want to say Watson passes the eye test- cool. But remember this factoid Tom- since 2008 the only QBs starting in the NFL who couldn't hit 55 mph at the combine were Taylor and Prescott, and they threw with bum arms. Having a rocket launcher (Weeden) won't guarantee success, but having a lame arm almost always means failure. I posted in the other thread Connor Shaw beat Watson's velocity by 1 mph - take that FWIW.

 

Damn tablets!

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CaineDeSoulis Newbie

CaineDeSoulis

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I'm going to do a little math and see if his arm strength is a cause for his interception problems

Watch some tape and have a beer going to be a good saturday afternoon :)

He hit 45mph once in two games in 2015 so far almost all of his throws

To prevent from using guess work and trigonometry I'm only looking at the speed on middle to middle type throws basically from the pocket to the middle or if the line in straight enough on a roll out.

I'm also giving the player benefit of doubt on timing rounding down and rounding yardage up. For example watson throws from roughly the 20-21 yardline the pass catcher catches the ball on the 43-44. I just start at the 20 and put the receiver on the 45 so i cant it as a 35 yard pass. when it was likely only 32 even 31. Player gets the benefit. so we just calculate the speed using S=D/T and we get the approximate speed of the throw.

Using the above example if the ball got there in 1.75 seconds it would be traveling 40.91 MPH, If it arrived at 1.5 seconds it would be traveling at 47.73 MPH

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tiamat63 Veteran

tiamat63

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No...you made a suggestion that velocity does not matter AT ALL. While certainly other factors perhaps matter more...do scouts in fact have an issue with a guy with such a low velocity.

Go ahead and show me a statement by an NFL scout that MPH don't matter.

 

At All? Oh, please.... highlight where I said that.

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wargograw Newbie

wargograw

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I'm going to do a little math and see if his arm strength is a cause for his interception problems

 

Watch some tape and have a beer going to be a good saturday afternoon :)

 

He hit 45mph once in two games in 2015 so far almost all of his throws

 

To prevent from using guess work and trigonometry I'm only looking at the speed on middle to middle type throws basically from the pocket to the middle or if the line in straight enough on a roll out.

 

I'm also giving the player benefit of doubt on timing rounding down and rounding yardage up. For example watson throws from roughly the 20-21 yardline the pass catcher catches the ball on the 43-44. I just start at the 20 and put the receiver on the 45 so i cant it as a 35 yard pass. when it was likely only 32 even 31. Player gets the benefit. so we just calculate the speed using S=D/T and we get the approximate speed of the throw.

 

Using the above example if the ball got there in 1.75 seconds it would be traveling 40.91 MPH, If it arrived at 1.5 seconds it would be traveling at 47.73 MPH

 

Do you run the Pythagorean theorem on it as well?

 

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hoorta Veteran

hoorta

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Conversely i figured i would measure Mahomes and his very first throw i watched clocked in around 51 MPH.

 

:) I remember back from my HS physics 60 mph = 88 fps. Obviously a thrown football isn't moving at a constant speed like a car. The farther it goes the slower it's moving. LOL, War- aeronautical engineering, air drag & loss of energy. (a rifle bullet is moving significantly slower at 300 yards than it is at muzzle velocity) Should I factor that into the equation? Hmmmm.... a guy who can throw a tight spiral probably has less air drag on the ball. But on a short throw probably is a minor factor. So Caine, what you're actually measuring with the stopwatch is the average speed of the ball, not peak velocity measured by a radar gun.

 

After that digression- my point is- (and I'll try to make the math simple) Trubisky's velocity @ 55mph = 80.7 fps. Watson's velocity @ 49 mph = 71.9 fps. Ergo, on a 20 yard pass (60 feet) Trubisky's throw would get to the target almost 9 feet before Watson's would. Hell, Mahome's ball would get there 16 feet sooner, almost enough time for the receiver to stop for a cup of coffee before Watson's pass got there. OK exaggeration, If you're wondering- that's 2 tenths of a second. Significant? I'd like to think so.

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CaineDeSoulis Newbie

CaineDeSoulis

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:) I remember back from my HS physics 60 mph = 88 fps. Obviously a thrown football isn't moving at a constant speed like a car. The farther it goes the slower it's moving. LOL, War- aeronautical engineering, air drag & loss of energy. (a rifle bullet is moving significantly slower at 300 yards than it is at muzzle velocity) Should I factor that into the equation? Hmmmm.... a guy who can throw a tight spiral probably has less air drag on the ball. But on a short throw probably is a minor factor. So Caine, what you're actually measuring with the stopwatch is the average speed of the ball, not peak velocity measured by a radar gun.

 

After that digression- my point is- (and I'll try to make the math simple) Trubisky's velocity @ 55mph = 80.7 fps. Watson's velocity @ 49 mph = 71.9 fps. Ergo, on a 20 yard pass (60 feet) Trubisky's throw would get to the target almost 9 feet before Watson's would. Significant? I'd like to think so.

Understandable Hoorta and that's true, I am measuring the average speed of the ball not peak velocity. Regardless the tape I've been watching this morning/afternoon you can CLEARLY see his arm strength is not as strong as the others in the class BUT i've yet to see it cause him to throw an INT yet. so far all of his INT's have been horrible decisions.

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Flugel Grand Master

Flugel

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plenty of excuses being made for a weak armed QB lol. Someone will take a flyer on this kid i just hope its not us

 

HA! Especially when the alternative to that prospect is from Mentor,OH even if he was only good enough to start 13 games in his entire scholarship.

 

Anyone that saw the National Championship with an open mind understands Clemson wasn't exactly dragging Trent Dilfer to the trophy when it had to overcome an 18-21 point second half deficit. If there was defensive lineup stockpiled with more NFL talent than Alabama - I'd like to know who it was. Since Ohio State might be #2, exactly how God awful was Watson in that 31-0 WIN?

 

Meanwhile, the difference between NC beating Stanford and losing to them was Trubisky's pick 6 at least in terms of margin of defeat while the homers will fight like hell to tell me all QBs throw pick 6s. Sure, but the GREAT ones aren't beat by them because they overcome them. Choose your excuses wisely...

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CaineDeSoulis Newbie

CaineDeSoulis

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HA! Especially when the alternative to that prospect is from Mentor,OH even if he was only good enough to start 13 games in his entire scholarship.

 

Anyone that saw the National Championship with an open mind understands Clemson wasn't exactly dragging Trent Dilfer to the trophy when it had to overcome an 18-21 point second half deficit. If there was defensive lineup stockpiled with more NFL talent than Alabama - I'd like to know who it was. Since Ohio State might be #2, exactly how God awful was Watson in that 31-0 WIN?

 

Meanwhile, the difference between NC beating Stanford and losing to them was Trubisky's pick 6 at least in terms of margin of defeat while the homers will fight like hell to tell me all QBs throw pick 6s. Sure, but the GREAT ones aren't beat by them because they overcome them. Choose your excuses wisely...

Flugel i doubt you have watched much tape. its about a whole body of work not just one game and also WINS ARE NOT A QB STAT.

 

You wanna talk about NFL Talent? Clemson 2016 9 Selections in the draft Alabama 7 selections. Alabama AND Clemson are both in the top 5 when considering NFL Talent this year. It's a non factor.

 

Also you can argue against Trubisky if you want but he ELEVATED the program at the QB posistion Watson did not. He actually made it worse compared to Boyd.

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Flugel Grand Master

Flugel

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http://www.espn.com/video/clip?id=17800766

 

Here you go flugels here's watson throwing a pick 6 and its horrible decision

 

BUT

 

Because the team is FILLED with so much talent the TEAM can overcome it.

 

I thought I said everyone can throw the pick 6 but the great ones can overcome them as depicted in Watson's 28-2 record the last 2 years despite not being from Ohio. You saw it in the Superbowl with Brady. What did both Championship winning QBs have in common when their margin of error sunk all the way to zero? They needed to erase big second half deficits without making 1 mistake and they did. Your excuse was greatly appreciated but winners don't need them.

 

NC was 11-3 in 2015 before they started needing excuses in 2016. Now here's where the fun starts, what changed?

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hoorta Veteran

hoorta

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http://www.espn.com/video/clip?id=17800766

 

Here you go flugels here's watson throwing a pick 6 and its horrible decision

BUT

Because the team is FILLED with so much talent the TEAM can overcome it.

 

 

I thought I said everyone can throw the pick 6 but the great ones can overcome them as depicted in Watson's 28-2 record the last 2 years despite not being from Ohio. You saw it in the Superbowl with Brady. What did both Championship winning QBs have in common when their margin of error sunk all the way to zero? They needed to erase big second half deficits without making 1 mistake and they did. Your excuse was greatly appreciated but winners don't need them.

 

NC was 11-3 in 2015 before they started needing excuses in 2016. Now here's where the fun starts, what changed?

 

Colt McCoy won a lot of games at Texas. .

 

Can't let it go that Watson played on a great TEAM, huh? Final NCAA rankings- Clemson #1, North Carolina #43. Had NC beaten NC State, Clemson would have blown them out as badly in the conference championship as they did Ohio State in the playoff. Takes more than a great qb to make a great team. I would dare posit if you had put Trubisky on Clemson- the results would have been the same. How many of those guys besides Watson are going to get drafted? Williams first WR off the board?

 

NC record was worse in 2016 as opposed to 2015? Ever hear of graduation?

 

Come April, in all likelihood two North Carolina players are going to get their names called- Trubisky and Switzer, (late)

 

Let it go Tom- I already said Watson passes your eye test, just like Trubisky does mine. No need to "prove" anything. Clemson also beat Alabama on an illegal pick that they ran once before in the game. The refs throw the hanky, and your big winner just lost the game.

 

No one is arguing that Watson was a great college qb. But we're discussing pro potential here.

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Tour2ma Contributor

Tour2ma

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Here's the weird thing to me....

 

I liked Watson throwing at the Combine. His deep, outside-shoulder throws looked effortless. And his quick outs did not look to have appreciably more hump in them that the others in his group excepting Beathard and Mahones.

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Tour2ma Contributor

Tour2ma

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... BUT i've yet to see it cause him to throw an INT yet. so far all of his INT's have been horrible decisions.

 

Matches my memory of the limited tape I've seen... 4 games I believe.

 

Was Watson in a bad weather, strong wind game that might be telling?

 

Also you can argue against Trubisky if you want but he ELEVATED the program at the QB posistion Watson did not. He actually made it worse compared to Boyd.

 

How much of that would you attribute to Boyd's running?

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