The "It's-later-than-you-think" 2021 Mock Draft Thread

[The Gipper]

1 minute ago, tiamat63 said:

You're purposefully avoiding anything Saturday or after.  And Mel Kiper?  Please.

 

He's a link from 11/5/12.  Before the real pro's started their draft evals on Matt Barkley.   The supposed #1 overall pick bestest,evvaaaaaaaaa

 

 https://www.google.com/amp/s/syndication.bleacherreport.com/amp/1397384-matt-barkley-still-deserves-to-be-the-no-1-overall-pick-in-the-2013-nfl-draft.amp.html

 

Fast forward to the end of bowl season and he sunk like the Edmund Fitz.

You see my point, yes? 

Whatever point you are making is irrelevant.    You are saying that often people taking highly in the draft, particularly QBs don't often work out. 

So what?  That has fuck all to do with what we are talking about.   We are talking about how Fields is perceived at THIS point.  Not how he will do once he gets to the pros. 

Lots of "can't miss"  QB prospects missed.   For all we know, Trevor Lawrence could turn out to  be shite or mediocre when gets to the pros. 

The question is:  how are the professional prognosticators viewing Fields now. 

[The Gipper]

7 minutes ago, tiamat63 said:

Sorry... Experts only.

You can disparage any or  all these guys all you want.  These are the guys getting paid to do that job, and you are not.  That includes the dozens linked in the database.  YOU have not listed a single site contradicting what I have put on here.....nor posted anything updated since...oh, just this past Thursday. 

[tiamat63]

3 minutes ago, The Gipper said:

Whatever point you are making is irrelevant.    You are saying that often people taking highly in the draft, particularly QBs don't often work out. 

So what?  That has fuck all to do with what we are talking about.   We are talking about how Fields is perceived at THIS point.  Not how he will do once he gets to the pros. 

Lots of "can't miss"  QB prospects missed.   For all we know, Trevor Lawrence could turn out to  be shite or mediocre when gets to the pros. 

The question is:  how are the professional prognosticators viewing Fields now. 

No, that's not the point I'm making.  My point is, how a player is viewed is one thing. How they are evaluated, especially after one big game... Is another.  I'm giving an example of a hyped 1st round pick, that one game set-off a reaction of digging further into the details.

And the truth is, most everyone you linked won't be doing their actual due-diligence until the bowl season is over.

I'm simply getting ahead of them by saying, I expect Fields to slide. I genuinely believe I have a pulse on things other football minds have, or will soon see for themselves.  I've seen the same flaws that date back to last year's B1G title game with little to no improvement.    Fuck sake, this is my QB and between the two of us, I'm likely the only one who has actually attended tOSU.  So you'd think I would be over-the-moon homer on this, no?  Use some logic.   Do you not honestly think that Fields non-improvement as a passer is going to be a secret much longer?   Only takes one day - one game, for that perception to begin to change.

 

You've shown no proof of that since his debacle v NU.  Only articles before that.  So fuck off until the draft or until we see further evidence of a slide should Justin play spotty against Clemson.  (Even then, the NU game will be enough) 

 

[tiamat63]

Literally top results on Google.

You don't want anything other than what you like to hear.  You're Cal, but on the football side.

 

 

[SdBacker80]

Fields has good tape and bad tape this year.  Probably two games where he would want to burn 6 quarters of tape. 

He’s made professional throws and decisions throughout the Nebraska and PSU game.  There was one point in the year I believe after 3 games he had more TD passes than he had incompletions. 
 

I believe many of his problems this season stem from making up for lost time - wanting to get in the heisman picture knowing  that he only had 7-8 games to get there.  Forcing the issue at times not playing a relaxed brand of football that he played in 2019.  The other issue outright refusal of checking it down and forcing action downfield.  Holding the ball waiting for downfield action to develop
 

He’s going to wow some teams during the draft process others will covet Lawrence.  

[The Gipper]

1 minute ago, tiamat63 said:

No, that's not the point I'm making.  My point is, how a player is viewed is one thing. How they are evaluated, especially after one big game... Is another.  I'm giving an example of a hyped 1st round pick, that one game set-off a reaction of digging further into the details.

So, you are saying that there are fools out that base their entire evaluation on one game?  Be it a bad game of a good game?  Most operative term: foolish.

And the truth is, most everyone you linked won't be doing their actual due-diligence until the bowl season is over.

I understand that...be we are talking about the here and the now. Right here, right now, he is a Top 5 pick. 

I'm simply getting ahead of them by saying, I expect Fields to slide.

Well, I expect to be able to bed Kaley Cuocco...so you see I have my fantasies as well. 

I genuinely believe I have a pulse on things other football minds have, or will soon see for themselves.  I've seen the same flaws that date back to last year's B1G title game with little to no improvement. 

I think the pulse you are feeling may just be a blood clot.  Nevertheless....I am not so certain that the expert feel the same way you do.  If they did....then explain why every single one of them still has him ranked in The Top 5 prospects. 

  Fuck sake, this is my QB and between the two of us, I'm likely the only one who has actually attended tOSU.  So you'd think I would be over-the-moon homer on this, no?  Use some logic.   Do you not honestly think that Fields non-improvement as a passer is going to be a secret much longer?   Only takes one day - one game, for that perception to begin to change.

I am using logic. Absolutely.  My logic says this:   I am looking at a whole field of draft expert out there who still say Fields is  a top 5 choice.  And then there is Tia...who thinks he is an amateur expert on this.   And who thinks that one bad game by a QB with a sprained thumb is going to change the mind of all the professional experts.    YOU tell me what logic would dictate?   Its like saying....all the science experts say that injecting bleach would be bad, but because Donald Trump thinks it might be good...let's believe Trump?   Sorry, I respect your opinion (more than I do Trump's) ....but I am not a cult follower of yours and I am not going to be injecting your bleach just yet. 

 

You've shown no proof of that since his debacle v NU.  Only articles before that.  So fuck off until the draft or until we see further evidence of a slide should Justin play spotty against Clemson.  (Even then, the NU game will be enough) 

YOU are the one that need to fuck off until the draft....or at least until we see further evidence that the NFL team's professional scouts think like you..if ever. 

(besides...what is it about a FUCKING sprained wrist you don't comprehend?).  By rights, Fields should have been taken out of that game with that injury.  As it was, they just kept him in for his leadership, apparently for all he needed to do was to hand the ball off to Sermon)

 

 

[The Gipper]

12 minutes ago, tiamat63 said:

Literally top results on Google.

You don't want anything other than what you like to hear.  You're Cal, but on the football side.

 

 

Sure, like the ignorant Colin Cowherd,  guys are going to give a  reaction to one bad game where a guy had a sprained wrist. 

Like I said, time will tell. 

Oh, look Adrian Peterson tore up a knew...so much for his career......what was that?  10 years ago, and he is still playing. 

[tiamat63]

Your expectations are based in fantasy, mine are reality. And a demonstration that I'm pretty good at what I do.  

Like I said, I googled Justin Fields and those were the top 2 results. So you HAD to ignore them just to try and prove your point.

 

Clowns to go the ignore list, Gip. We'll talk after bowl season.

[The Gipper]

10 minutes ago, SdBacker80 said:

Fields has good tape and bad tape this year.  Probably two games where he would want to burn 6 quarters of tape. 

He’s made professional throws and decisions throughout the Nebraska and PSU game.  There was one point in the year I believe after 3 games he had more TD passes than he had incompletions. 
 

I believe many of his problems this season stem from making up for lost time - wanting to get in the heisman picture knowing  that he only had 7-8 games to get there.  Forcing the issue at times not playing a relaxed brand of football that he played in 2019.  The other issue outright refusal of checking it down and forcing action downfield.  Holding the ball waiting for downfield action to develop
 

He’s going to wow some teams during the draft process others will covet Lawrence.  

Lawrence WILL be the #1 pick.  No one would ever deny that.  Claim is that he is best prospect since Andrew Luck. 

[The Gipper]

11 minutes ago, tiamat63 said:

Your expectations are based in fantasy, mine are reality. And a demonstration that I'm pretty good at what I do.  

I am sorry...you are the one with the fantasy....the apparent HOPE that  Fields will drop ...vs. all the linked data that I put on here. 

Like I said, I googled Justin Fields and those were the top 2 results. So you HAD to ignore them just to try and prove your point.

I googled "2021 Mock Drafts".....you know....sites that project where players might go in the draft.  Which is what we were talking about....projections where Fields may go in the draft.  Nothing that you showed came up in my google search.  I wasn't interested in his personal life, so I didn't google his name. 

 

Clowns to go the ignore list, Gip. We'll talk after bowl season.

No...clowns don't go there....otherwise I would put you there.   But I am not a coward who runs from an argument and I have never done that to anyone. So, are you really going to become a gutless kunt like Tour who runs and hides and can't stand up to a counter argument.  I really thought you were a better man than that. 

So, what happens when Fields still goes in the Top 5 of the draft?  Are you then going to defer and say....well, he won't have any sort of a career....just so you can justify your opinion? 

 

[tiamat63]

32 minutes ago, SdBacker80 said:

Fields has good tape and bad tape this year.  Probably two games where he would want to burn 6 quarters of tape. 

He’s made professional throws and decisions throughout the Nebraska and PSU game.  There was one point in the year I believe after 3 games he had more TD passes than he had incompletions. 
 

I believe many of his problems this season stem from making up for lost time - wanting to get in the heisman picture knowing  that he only had 7-8 games to get there.  Forcing the issue at times not playing a relaxed brand of football that he played in 2019.  The other issue outright refusal of checking it down and forcing action downfield.  Holding the ball waiting for downfield action to develop
 

He’s going to wow some teams during the draft process others will covet Lawrence.  

You can find bad tape on any prospect. That isn't so much the issue.  It's what you find in that tape that is the problem.  

Is there a trend that shows it's ugly head over the course of a sesson?  Or in the case of JF... His career?   

[Tour2ma]

2 hours ago, SdBacker80 said:

We need premium draft capital spent on LBs, Interior Dlineman and a DE.  Perhaps even a CB.

We have a 1,2,3,3,4,4...5 of those 6 picks need investment at these three spots.  We are at point where need trumps all. 

"Need trumps all" makes my teeth ache from the clenching.

As long as you are saying BPA at any of your targeted positions as each of our picks roll along, then my teeth will be better. Add that you would not pass on a significantly higher-ranked, non-targeted prospect for the sake of identified need and they are even better yet. CB is a great example early, but WR and OL come into play as the rounds roll by.

All the above stems from my personal, need-as-a-tie-btreaker approach for prospects I rank in clusters. I use clusters because I see ranking 300 prospect from 1 to 300 as a fool's errand. At least it is for me. I'm lucky if I can get a given prospect within one cluster either way of where he belongs.

42 minutes ago, tiamat63 said:

Sorry... Experts only.

Hey! Leave Todd alone...

I think he's pretty damn good at what he does and he does it without a whiff of Kiper's arrogance. For me that's a watchable combination.

[Unsympathetic]

Perhaps we should just have defense ranked - because "BPA at whatever defensive position we haven't picked yet" isn't exactly a sexy way of describing a draft board for days 1&2.. but if that's what we went by, I couldn't say it was wrong.

[tiamat63]

1 hour ago, Tour2ma said:

"Need trumps all" makes my teeth ache from the clenching.

As long as you are saying BPA at any of your targeted positions as each of our picks roll along, then my teeth will be better. Add that you would not pass on a significantly higher-ranked, non-targeted prospect for the sake of identified need and they are even better yet. CB is a great example early, but WR and OL come into play as the rounds roll by.

All the above stems from my personal, need-as-a-tie-btreaker approach for prospects I rank in clusters. I use clusters because I see ranking 300 prospect from 1 to 300 as a fool's errand. At least it is for me. I'm lucky if I can get a given prospect within one cluster either way of where he belongs.

Hey! Leave Todd alone...

I think he's pretty damn good at what he does and he does it without a whiff of Kiper's arrogance. For me that's a watchable combination.

Todd seems alright, there's just a few bombs he's had that I just can't get past.

[SdBacker80]

1 hour ago, Tour2ma said:

"Need trumps all" makes my teeth ache from the clenching.

As long as you are saying BPA at any of your targeted positions as each of our picks roll along, then my teeth will be better. Add that you would not pass on a significantly higher-ranked, non-targeted prospect for the sake of identified need and they are even better yet. CB is a great example early, but WR and OL come into play as the rounds roll by.

All the above stems from my personal, need-as-a-tie-btreaker approach for prospects I rank in clusters. I use clusters because I see ranking 300 prospect from 1 to 300 as a fool's errand. At least it is for me. I'm lucky if I can get a given prospect within one cluster either way of where he belongs.

Hey! Leave Todd alone...

I think he's pretty damn good at what he does and he does it without a whiff of Kiper's arrogance. For me that's a watchable combination.

Of course...when the Browns pick #32 and a LT, QB, RB are the BPAs I hope we pass.

I’d be willing to take the best interior dlineman, DE, LB, CB, FS/SS at that spot. 

[calfoxwc]

well, so far the first round is very confusing.

Players on my temporary way too early list for the Browns (about 21 to 25, somewhere maybe?

 FIRST ROUND
zaven collins lb

 joseph ossai lb

Trevon Moehrig s

something like that, pretty much.

***EDIT:

If the discussion were to lean toward BPA.... that is different.

I just figure, btw, that Caleb Farley is long gone -  at worst a top 15 pick. That is the challenge

I always throw at myself in my stupid mock drafts. If Farley falls to the Browns that far? lol

Sure, that is a no-brainer probably.

BPA? at about 25? If he's there - and he may very well be... I would switch gears and

with Terrence Marshall Jr, 6'3" wr out of LSU. He's so excellent he gave Jacee? Horn fits in a game.

But then I'd have to spend the rest of the draft on defense....

it's complicated.

 

 

[Tour2ma]

3 hours ago, SdBacker80 said:

Of course...when the Browns pick #32 and a LT, QB, RB are the BPAs I hope we pass.

I’d be willing to take the best interior dlineman, DE, LB, CB, FS/SS at that spot. 

I figured, but I can't recall "talking" draft philosophy with you before, so I wanted to kick it off...

 

In that vein... if our only Round One options are OL, QB, RB when our 1st pick rolls along... a little earlier than #32 I'm guessing (but you keep the faith)... then trade down works for me.

 

[SdBacker80]

2 hours ago, Tour2ma said:

I figured, but I can't recall "talking" draft philosophy with you before, so I wanted to kick it off...

 

In that vein... if our only Round One options are OL, QB, RB when our 1st pick rolls along... a little earlier than #32 I'm guessing (but you keep the faith)... then trade down works for me.

 

I’m all about the trade down this coming draft.  You can find back 7 guys all day in 2/3 rounds.  
 

I think Joe Woods and the defense are holding out on us.  Watch us turn this around and win a Super Bowl. 

[MLD Woody]

On 12/21/2020 at 1:06 PM, tiamat63 said:

No, that's not the point I'm making.  My point is, how a player is viewed is one thing. How they are evaluated, especially after one big game... Is another.  I'm giving an example of a hyped 1st round pick, that one game set-off a reaction of digging further into the details.

And the truth is, most everyone you linked won't be doing their actual due-diligence until the bowl season is over.

I'm simply getting ahead of them by saying, I expect Fields to slide. I genuinely believe I have a pulse on things other football minds have, or will soon see for themselves.  I've seen the same flaws that date back to last year's B1G title game with little to no improvement.    Fuck sake, this is my QB and between the two of us, I'm likely the only one who has actually attended tOSU.  So you'd think I would be over-the-moon homer on this, no?  Use some logic.   Do you not honestly think that Fields non-improvement as a passer is going to be a secret much longer?   Only takes one day - one game, for that perception to begin to change.

 

You've shown no proof of that since his debacle v NU.  Only articles before that.  So fuck off until the draft or until we see further evidence of a slide should Justin play spotty against Clemson.  (Even then, the NU game will be enough) 

 

Tia coming out with some deep cuts.

 

Good luck trying to get anything through Gip's head that disagrees with one of his established beliefs though. Especially if it is something that can be viewed as "anti-OSU"

[MLD Woody]

https://www.profootballnetwork.com/2021-nfl-mock-draft-2-round-miller-december/

 

Here's a mock draft from a few days ago with Fields going #12 and Wade going #48

(though he also has Jalen Mayfield as a Clemson OT...)

[The Gipper]

1 hour ago, MLD Woody said:

Tia coming out with some deep cuts.

 

Good luck trying to get anything through Gip's head that disagrees with one of his established beliefs though. Especially if it is something that can be viewed as "anti-OSU"

I believe you are a little pussy. See if you can get anyone to challenge me on that.   And I believe that you will scour the internet for anything that IS  "Anti-OSU" so you can flout it.  

[The Gipper]

1 hour ago, MLD Woody said:

https://www.profootballnetwork.com/2021-nfl-mock-draft-2-round-miller-december/

 

Here's a mock draft from a few days ago with Fields going #12 and Wade going #48

(though he also has Jalen Mayfield as a Clemson OT...)

Here is a whole list of  mock drafts.  Like the top 7 on this list are from since the  OSU/Northwestern game wherein it was claimed that Fields performance would drop him way down.  He still sits in the Top 5 in all these.

https://walterfootball.com/draftdata.php

Nevertheless I DO think Fields will likely drop....for this reason:

Jags take Trevor....but the next  7 in draft order are NOT in line to want a QB.    The only exception would be if the Jets trade their #2 pick to a team looking for a QB at #2.  And the Jets should trade that pick and maybe do just that.   Otherwise, I think the Jets have far more urgent needs than a QB.  They can do with Darnold. After them the Dolphins...ATL...Cinci....Philly...Lions....Giants....I don't see going QB as a priority....unless say Matt Stafford goes elsewhere, as  think he is a FA.  If he goes, Detroit needs a QB.  Otherwise you get down to 9-10 with Carolina and Denver who may go that route. 

But...OK, there IS another guy in play:   Zack Wilson of BYU.    It is not so much that Fields would drop....it is that I think this guy will jump highly.     He goes Top Ten I think, minimally, if not higher. 

[MLD Woody]

Well you've definitely never been wrong about or overhyped anything relating to Ohio or OSU in the past...

[The Gipper]

On 12/28/2020 at 1:23 AM, MLD Woody said:

Well you've definitely never been wrong about or overhyped anything relating to Ohio or OSU in the past...

Yes you are right. 

[ATOM]

so we get delphit(sp?) and weeny i mean greedy back next year plus a draft class should make are D badass

[Unsympathetic]

Browns trading back wouldn't net much - thinking tiers, last 10 of the first and first 10 of the second are roughly equivalent.. Depends on the individual player of course, but don't drift away into fantasyland thinking that everyone is as terrible at trades as the ex-Texans GM.  For us to "win a trade-back" .. someone has to be that idiot you're planning to fleece, and I just don't see it.

[The Gipper]

58 minutes ago, Unsympathetic said:

Browns trading back wouldn't net much - thinking tiers, last 10 of the first and first 10 of the second are roughly equivalent.. Depends on the individual player of course, but don't drift away into fantasyland thinking that everyone is as terrible at trades as the ex-Texans GM.  For us to "win a trade-back" .. someone has to be that idiot you're planning to fleece, and I just don't see it.

Right now they would be  drafting in the dreaded   #22 spot!!  Isn't that where they took Quinn,  Weeden and JMZ?    

[The Gipper]

Here is who one mock draft has them taking.  What do all you  "draft experts"  say about this possible choice? :

22

Joseph Ossai

OLB | Texas

6'4"

253 lbs

 

 

[SdBacker80]

9 minutes ago, The Gipper said:

Here is who one mock draft has them taking.  What do all you  "draft experts"  say about this possible choice? :

22

Joseph Ossai

OLB | Texas

6'4"

253 lbs

 

 

Not opposed at all.  
 

I usually don’t like Notre Dame guys but Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah, OLB, Notre Dame caught my attention this year. 
Seems like the type of athlete that can chase Lamar too. 

[Tour2ma]

1 hour ago, SdBacker80 said:

Seems like the type of athlete that can chase Lamar too

Maybe, but it'd be better to have someone who could actually catch LJ...