Bottom line on the virus

[Axe]

 

2 hours ago, tiamat63 said:

 

Total cases is 125,100 with  2,238 dead.   That's 1.78% morality rate of total cases.

I can't even begin to fathom how you determine your numbers.    3 days ago it was 1000 deaths.  We've more than doubled that number in less than 72 hours.  

I can recommend a few out of work teachers who can help with remedial math via Zoom, Go-To-Office...  whatever you'd like, slugger. 

 You may want to revisit those remedial courses yourself princess

I25,100  total cases.. 125,100 of what? We can't just pull that number out of thin air.  We aren't talking about some small town of 2000.. That number is pulled from total cases nation wide, from all over the US. The entire population of the United States. THAT'S the established pool the numbers were pulled from whether it suits you chicken little mantra or not. That 125,100 represents .038% of that pool whether you like it or not!  Of those 125,100 cases, 2,238 have died and THAT represents .00068% of the original pool.

 

 

 

 

Is any of this getting through to you?

[MLD Woody]

Congrats Axe,

You've created a statistic that means nothing and can mathematically only go up (and will).

Brilliant stuff

 

Keep going though. It's some great isolation entertainment 

[Axe]

Sorry it's over your head Sonny..

 

Not making light of the situation..

 

Just facts

[tiamat63]

1 minute ago, Axe said:

 

 You may want to revisit those remedial courses yourself princess

I25,100  total cases.. 125,100 of what? We can't just pull that number out of thin air.  We aren't talking about some small town of 2000.. That number is pulled from total cases from all over the US. The entire population of the United States. THAT'S the established pool the numbers were pulled from whether it suits you chicken little mantra or not. That 125,100 represents .038% of that pool whether you like it or not!  Of those 125,100 cases, 2,238 have died and THAT represents .00068% of the original pool.

 

Is any of this getting through to you?

 

 

There are 125,000 confirmed cases of COVID-19 in the US a of when I typed that out.    OF those 125,100 cases - a number NOT out of thin air, those are confirmed cases.  Are you with me so far?    Again, of those confirmed positive cases,  2,238 of them have DIED.  

125,100

--------------

2,238

 

2,238 is 1.788968824940048 %  of 125,100.        Ergo, the mortality rate is 1.788968824940048%.       I even skipped my own calculator and googled a percentage based one just to double check my math. 

 

I CANNOT make this more clear.  It is TOTAL CONFIRMED CASES - over - TOTAL DEATHS WITHIN CONFIRMED CASES.       Nothing else.  No other bullshit that you're trying so desperately to fit in.  

The General Director of the WHO itself reported a mortality rate of 3.4% on March 3rd.   To determine that number, it was taken with the TOTAL NUMBER OF CONFIRMED CASES - 90,893 v the resulting 3,110 deaths within THOSE confirmed cases.   (I'm doing the caps lock thing like Cal praying you get this)      3,110 = 3.4% of the TOTAL NUMBER OF CONFIRMED CASES AT THE TIME, 90,893.     

Here is a percentage calculator to double check your work.

https://percentagecalculator.net/

 

This is the most controlled way to determine a cause-specific mortality rate.    At any point you can go, "oh, I'm going off total population" and we can both laugh this off.  Sure, it's a way to calculate morality rate in the most crude, and really inaccurate, of terms.      

 

So if the WHO is reporting similar numbers to how I'm doing this... yet you, somebody who clearly doesn't work with controlled variables, comes up with different math - whom do you think might just be doing this wrong?   

 

 

 

 

 

 

[DieHardBrownsFan]

Ohio Department of Health

1,653 Confirmed Coronavirus Cases

Updated: 3/29/20 2:00 p.m.

Cuyahoga County

Confirmed Coronavirus Cases: 440

[Axe]

I give up.. Those total confirmed cases have to be pulled from a pool No? A well defined pool..

 

THAT is what you insist on ignoring. And you can't!

[tiamat63]

3 minutes ago, Axe said:

I give up.. Those total confirmed cases have to be pulled from a pool No? A well defined pool..

 

THAT is what you insist on ignoring. And you can't!

What pool?  there is no "pool".  I guess you could call it a pool unto itself. TOTAL cases.  What you do within that 125,100 is on you.   But that IS the "pool".

I'm not ignoring it. I'm going off data IN HAND.  You can't work with what you don't know, you go off present information.    Otherwise war would be waged very differently.   Not, "well, gee, there could be 11 billion cases and we just don't know".  That is not how you do a controlled study.

[MLD Woody]

22 minutes ago, Axe said:

Sorry it's over your head Sonny..

 

Not making light of the situation..

 

Just facts

Hahahahahaha.

Oh man.

None of this is "over my head".

I get numbers. Though I'm not so sure you do...

 

Do you not understand why the "facts" you're presenting mean nothing?

Do you understand why your rates can only mathematically go up?

 

 

Tia is going to keep trying too I imagine. To a point. This is some basic stuff. 

Maybe if we found a good meme to explain it to you?

[tiamat63]

1 minute ago, MLD Woody said:

 

 

 

Tia is going to keep trying too I imagine. To a point.

Allow me to play you the song of my people.

 

 

[MLD Woody]

10 minutes ago, tiamat63 said:

Allow me to play you the song of my people.

 

 

This is where the guy with a loose understanding of fractions claims victory haha

[Axe]

30 minutes ago, tiamat63 said:

 

 

There are 125,000 confirmed cases of COVID-19 in the US a of when I typed that out.   

 

There's your pool..

 

 

 

But continue the smartass bullshit neither of you would have the balls to attempt in person..

[tiamat63]

9 minutes ago, Axe said:

But continue the smartass bullshit neither of you would have the balls to attempt in person..

LOLOLOLOL.   Then you're going to be in for a real shock when you come say hi at the BB 2021 draft party.

.

 

 

 

. 

[MLD Woody]

15 minutes ago, Axe said:

There's your pool..

 

 

 

But continue the smartass bullshit neither of you would have the balls to attempt in person..

You think an engineer wouldn't have the "balls" to tell someone they're wrong in person? About math?

 

Dude we live for that shit

[DieHardBrownsFan]

 

[hoorta]

16 hours ago, MLD Woody said:

And this is an additional form of death, a very contagious disease with no cure. You can't catch "getting trampled by an elephant" from someone with no symptoms. Yes people die every day, but as of a few months ago they weren't dying from this, and that's the point.

Again, I'm going to listen to the infectious disease experts and what they feel is the best course of action. The models are out there and there could be a heavy impact. 

And I'm not saying there could, and probably will be a heavy impact. My last statement is "it's contagious as hell".  And as far as I can tell, the advice we're getting from the epidemiologists is largely being followed. Tighten those restrictions down any further, and you run the risk of riots. 

5 hours ago, tiamat63 said:

If somebody coughs on me, can I get cancer?  

If I buy a hooker and she spits in my mouth, can I get cancer?

Well...shit.  

Not my point again. Oh, so let's narrow it down to communicable diseases. Your hooker spits in your mouth, you sure could contract AIDS. Well....  let's take a look at what the World health organization says...  Of the ten leading causes of death world wide- AIDS is there, as well as to my surprise- tuberculosis. Plenty of diarrhea deaths due to poor sanitation- and I count those as communicable too. https://www.who.int/news-room/fact-sheets/detail/the-top-10-causes-of-death  Probably around three million deaths due to those causes- and I hear crickets chirping. Do I have to point it out again corona is getting all the attention because 1) it's communicable, and 2)  is primarily hitting developed countries? Obviously fear sells big time. So keep those daily body counts coming, by all means- stoking the paranoia. I'm not downplaying this- but it's being treated like the death rate from this virus is up in the 30% range, not the 1% or so (higher in at risk groups) that's the reality of the situation. Until we know what the true ratio of # infected to #deaths, we're guessing. Help us out with some numbers, South Korea. Knowing the percentage of asymptomatic cases might calm the hysteria down a tad. Then again, might make it worse- that stranger in the store is the boogeyman corona carrier, and if I get it, I'm gonna die for sure... 

We don't know yet what the daily death toll will top out at yet, but OK- 2,000 virus deaths in one day\ 160,000 total world wide deaths = 1%  LOL, heart attacks and strokes (by far the largest reasons for death) don't sell papers or get internet clicks. 

4 hours ago, tiamat63 said:

That will end up being damn near EVERY major metropolitan area at some point.  NY,  DC,  Chi-town, LA, Seattle.  Any place with intense population density is a time bomb.

That I agree with you on. Cal and the guys out in farm country are relatively safe. Dr.Drew pointed it out weeks ago- this gets into the homeless population around Los Angeles (or any big city) it's not going to be pretty. 

[OldBrownsFan]

20 minutes ago, hoorta said:

And I'm not saying there could, and probably will be a heavy impact. My last statement is "it's contagious as hell".  And as far as I can tell, the advice we're getting from the epidemiologists is largely being followed. Tighten those restrictions down any further, and you run the risk of riots. 

Not my point again. Oh, so let's narrow it down to communicable diseases. Your hooker spits in your mouth, you sure could contract AIDS. Well....  let's take a look at what the World health organization says...  Of the ten leading causes of death world wide- AIDS is there, as well as to my surprise- tuberculosis. Plenty of diarrhea deaths due to poor sanitation- and I count those as communicable too. https://www.who.int/news-room/fact-sheets/detail/the-top-10-causes-of-death  Probably around three million deaths due to those causes- and I hear crickets chirping. Do I have to point it out again corona is getting all the attention because 1) it's communicable, and 2)  is primarily hitting developed countries? Obviously fear sells big time. So keep those daily body counts coming, by all means- stoking the paranoia. I'm not downplaying this- but it's being treated like the death rate from this virus is up in the 30% range, not the 1% or so (higher in at risk groups) that's the reality of the situation. Until we know what the true ratio of # infected to #deaths, we're guessing. Help us out with some numbers, South Korea. Knowing the percentage of asymptomatic cases might calm the hysteria down a tad. Then again, might make it worse- that stranger in the store is the boogeyman corona carrier, and if I get it, I'm gonna die for sure... 

We don't know yet what the daily death toll will top out at yet, but OK- 2,000 virus deaths in one day\ 160,000 total world wide deaths = 1%  LOL, heart attacks and strokes (by far the largest reasons for death) don't sell papers or get internet clicks. 

That I agree with you on. Cal and the guys out in farm country are relatively safe. Dr.Drew pointed it out weeks ago- this gets into the homeless population around Los Angeles (or any big city) it's not going to be pretty. 

I live in a more rural County and we have had 4 documented cases of covid 19 and then my wife showed me this facebook page of a woman in Sidney who likely has covid 19. I messaged her and told her she needs to get on hydroxycholoroquine and zpac combo right away, According to the doctor who has had a lot of success with these drugs he says if you wait too long and are put on a ventilator there is more chance of lung damage at that point and then these drugs are not nearly so effective.

The same doctor said that covid 19 is 3 times more contagious than regular flu and 10 times more deadly.

 

[DieHardBrownsFan]

University Hospitals in Cleveland is trying a different drug to treat:

 

https://www.uhhospitals.org/for-clinicians/articles-and-news/articles/2020/03/uh-among-first-in-nation-to-test-investigational-antiviral-drug-against-covid19

[hoorta]

1 hour ago, tiamat63 said:

 

I CANNOT make this more clear.  It is TOTAL CONFIRMED CASES - over - TOTAL DEATHS WITHIN CONFIRMED CASES.       Nothing else.  No other bullshit that you're trying so desperately to fit in.  

The General Director of the WHO itself reported a mortality rate of 3.4% on March 3rd.   To determine that number, it was taken with the TOTAL NUMBER OF CONFIRMED CASES - 90,893 v the resulting 3,110 deaths within THOSE confirmed cases.   (I'm doing the caps lock thing like Cal praying you get this)      3,110 = 3.4% of the TOTAL NUMBER OF CONFIRMED CASES AT THE TIME, 90,893.     

Here is a percentage calculator to double check your work.

The bold is sort of important tia. No doubt that number is accurate. And If you contract corona the odds you may die is 1.7% or so. Also means there's a 98% chance you won't.  But as you know there's plenty of room to add unconfirmed and asymptomatic cases to the TOTAL number of cases- which will almost certainly bring the death rate percentage down. 

Yes, there certainly is the possibility we may run out of respirators. I brought it up before- are we willing to use "heroic" measures on everyone who winds up in ICU with corona induced pneumonia? Even if they have multiple underlying health problems and a poor quality of life already? If you've ever visited a skilled- as opposed to an assisted- living unit, you'd know what I'm talking about. The majority of SNU residents have one foot in the grave already, and little surprise- contracting corona finishes the job. 

Before this pandemic hit big time, how many people just considered it a case of the flu? Now anyone who gets a persistent cough thinks they have corona. 

[tiamat63]

7 minutes ago, hoorta said:

The bold is sort of important tia. No doubt that number is accurate. And If you contract corona the odds you may die is 1.7% or so. Also means there's a 98% chance you won't.  But as you know there's plenty of room to add unconfirmed and asymptomatic cases to the TOTAL number of cases- which will almost certainly bring the death rate percentage down. 

 

Conversely, how many have died or may die that will NOT have COVID listed as the cause?  The door can swing both ways.   

Right now we know this - it's a serious situation.  This is NOT the flu.  We need to be vigilante, grit our teeth and get through.     Do that and we mitigate the damage.

[MLD Woody]

36 minutes ago, OldBrownsFan said:

I live in a more rural County and we have had 4 documented cases of covid 19 and then my wife showed me this facebook page of a woman in Sidney who likely has covid 19. I messaged her and told her she needs to get on hydroxycholoroquine and zpac combo right away, According to the doctor who has had a lot of success with these drugs he says if you wait too long and are put on a ventilator there is more chance of lung damage at that point and then these drugs are not nearly so effective.

The same doctor said that covid 19 is 3 times more contagious than regular flu and 10 times more deadly.

 

 

I don't think we need a bunch of Facebook experts telling the doctors what to prescribe

[hoorta]

13 minutes ago, tiamat63 said:

Conversely, how many have died or may die that will NOT have COVID listed as the cause?  The door can swing both ways.   

Right now we know this - it's a serious situation.  This is NOT the flu.  We need to be vigilante, grit our teeth and get through.     Do that and we mitigate the damage.

Fair enough. I'm willing to put up with the current restrictions indefinitely. The impact on my life is pretty minimal, putting it in perspective. Personally, I like my survival odds. However there's going to be a significant part of the population that won't. 

I've mentioned my wife is a supervisor in a hospital lab, and she just got a call this morning another employee is self quarantining. That's the third one. It will get bad if there's a significant number of hospital workers who are (at least) temporarily out of commission. With my mountaineering background, I don't scare easily- but I can tell you I wouldn't want to be in an ICU nurses shoes right now.  

[tiamat63]

3 minutes ago, hoorta said:

Fair enough. I'm willing to put up with the current restrictions indefinitely. The impact on my life is pretty minimal, putting it in perspective. Personally, I like my survival odds. However there's going to be a significant part of the population that won't. 

I've mentioned my wife is a supervisor in a hospital lab, and she just got a call this morning another employee is self quarantining. That's the third one. It will get bad if there's a significant number of hospital workers who are (at least) temporarily out of commission. With my mountaineering background, I don't scare easily- but I can tell you I wouldn't want to be in an ICU nurses shoes right now.  

 And THAT is where we run into trouble.  When medical staff, Nurses, Techs, MD's, etc etc.... when they are sick and can't help.        It becomes much more than a nightmare at that point.

[OldBrownsFan]

1 hour ago, MLD Woody said:

 

I don't think we need a bunch of Facebook experts telling the doctors what to prescribe

I never claimed to be a Facebook expert but I do follow the golden rule. I messaged this woman and gave her the link to the doctor who has had good success with these drugs. I advised her what I would do in her situation. I advised her like I would for myself or any of my own family. 

BTW - I got a message from the woman's family who thanked me for the information

[hoorta]

27 minutes ago, MLD Woody said:

I don't think we need a bunch of Facebook experts telling the doctors what to prescribe

I'm recommending that aquarium stuff.    I think what OBF was saying is that doctor has already been trying hydroxyq, with some favorable results. My POV? The FDA can go to hell in a handbasket with their overbearing restrictions on off label use of drugs. If you have an intelligent doctor, who knows you know what you're talking about- you sort of can self medicate. I do that myself suggesting medications I need to use for high blood pressure.  

You really want to know why a lot of our drugs are made in China, Israel, or India?  Blame the f**king FDA making drug companies jump through a million hoops to get a drug approved in the first place, and then send their asshole inspectors to the manufacturing sites to look for dust behind the refrigerators, so they can site them for petty violations of the CFR (Code of Federal Regulations).  Which incidentally if it's printed takes up nine feet of shelf space, and that's just the parts that pertain to drugs. Believe me, working in a blood center (and blood is considered a drug) I had plenty of interaction with them. We employed four people who's only job was to make sure we didn't run afoul of the FDA. 

[OldBrownsFan]

16 minutes ago, hoorta said:

I'm recommending that aquarium stuff.    I think what OBF was saying is that doctor has already been trying hydroxyq, with some favorable results. My POV? The FDA can go to hell in a handbasket with their overbearing restrictions on off label use of drugs. If you have an intelligent doctor, who knows you know what you're talking about- you sort of can self medicate. I do that myself suggesting medications I need to use for high blood pressure.  

You really want to know why a lot of our drugs are made in China, Israel, or India?  Blame the f**king FDA making drug companies jump through a million hoops to get a drug approved in the first place, and then send their asshole inspectors to the manufacturing sites to look for dust behind the refrigerators, so they can site them for petty violations of the CFR (Code of Federal Regulations).  Which incidentally if it's printed takes up nine feet of shelf space, and that's just the parts that pertain to drugs. Believe me, working in a blood center (and blood is considered a drug) I had plenty of interaction with them. We employed four people who's only job was to make sure we didn't run afoul of the FDA. 

Here is another example, Maybe the FDA has good reason to do this but we are in a war right now and time is not on our side.

"Ohio Gov. Mike DeWine is blasting the U.S. Food and Drug Administration after, the governor’s office said, the FDA limited the use of an Ohio-born technology to sterilize widely needed surgical masks.

 

The U.S. Food and Drug Administration denied Columbus-based Battelle permission to sterilize a far greater number of face masks a day, capping the company to just 10,000 daily sterilizations of the masks.

The ruling also blocks Battelle from sending its technology to other metro areas, a release from DeWine’s office said Sunday morning.

“The FDA’s decision to severely limit the use of this life-saving technology is nothing short of reckless,” DeWine in a statement. “Battelle’s innovative technology has the capability to protect health care professionals and first responders in Ohio and across the country, but in this time of crisis, the FDA has decided not to support those who are risking their lives to save others.”

Added DeWine: “This is a matter of life and death. I am not only disappointed by this development, but I’m also stunned that the FDA would decline to do all it can to protect this country’s frontline workers in this serious time of need.”

For two days running, DeWine has publicly pleaded with the FDA to issue an emergency waiver for the use of the new technology that could sterilize up to 160,000 personal protective face masks every day.

The technology was developed by Columbus-based Battelle and could be used elsewhere.

In addition to offering this technology in Ohio, Battelle had intended to send one machine to New York City and another to Stony Brook, N.Y, which would have allowed for the sterilization of up to 160,000 surgical masks for New York’s health care workers each day, DeWine’s office said in a release.

Machines would have also been dispatched to the state of Washington and Washington D.C., the governor said."

 

https://www.daytondailynews.com/business/dewine-blasts-fda-limit-battelle-face-mask-technology/mN6x4mvVP3CKT9Dk66GlDP/

[Gorka]

5 hours ago, calfoxwc said:

 

NOTE: about half of U.S. deaths are from New York. As I posted elsewhere, people are fleeing NY for all sorts of reasons, with the virus being a final straw for many. and they are spreading it.                         

Long Island now has surpassed South Korea in total cases.

Just learned this today. My son is a physician on the front lines treating COVID patients at Stoneybrook Hospital on Long Island. He is a nephrologist fellow (a doctor in training specializing in kidneys) and a critical care doctor.

He was sayin that it's so bad certain doctors and nurses either are, or will be, (I'm not sure how I heard it) wearing diapers. Man, that's fucked up. I'm thinking about him a lot right now.

I Googled the diaper thing and got this....

https://nypost.com/2020/02/13/doctors-battling-coronavirus-in-wuhan-wearing-diapers-during-long-shifts/

 

[OldBrownsFan]

Dr. Vladimir Zelenko has now treated 699 coronavirus patients with 100% success using Hydroxychloroquine Sulfate, Zinc and Z-Pak [UPDATES]

https://techstartups.com/2020/03/28/dr-vladimir-zelenko-now-treated-699-coronavirus-patients-100-success-using-hydroxychloroquine-sulfate-zinc-z-pak-update/

[OldBrownsFan]

16 minutes ago, Gorka said:

Long Island now has surpassed South Korea in total cases.

Just learned this today. My son is physician on the front lines treating COVID patients at Stoneybrook Hospital on Long Island. He is a nephrologist fellow (a doctor in training specializing in kidneys) and a critical care doctor.

He was sayin that it's so bad certain doctors and nurses either are, or will be, (I'm not sure how I heard it) wearing diapers. Man, that's fucked up. I'm thinking about him a lot right now.

I Googled the diaper thing and got this....

https://nypost.com/2020/02/13/doctors-battling-coronavirus-in-wuhan-wearing-diapers-during-long-shifts/

 

I pray your son stays safe and protected. These health care providers are real heroes fighting this invisible war.

[Gorka]

4 minutes ago, OldBrownsFan said:

I pray your son stays safe and protected. These health care providers are real heroes fighting this invisible war.

Thanks OBF.

[DieHardBrownsFan]