AFC Playoff Picture

[Zombo]

9 minutes ago, Nero said:

A Titans' loss doesn't work for us? 

EDIT: checked it doesn't because we have a worse division pct no matter what. 

EDIT 2: Actually it works because we won both games against both AFCS teams, so we are above whoever ends 2nd in that division. Amairait? 

According to the NY Times Simulator, if we beat the Jets and the Titans lose to GB our chances are 99%, but not a clinch. So there must be a scenario where we could still be out somehow.

But I should have included that as one of the games with implications, go Packers!

Zombo

[SdBacker80]

38 minutes ago, Zombo said:

According to the NY Times Simulator, if we beat the Jets and the Titans lose to GB our chances are 99%, but not a clinch. So there must be a scenario where we could still be out somehow.

But I should have included that as one of the games with implications, go Packers!

Zombo

Correct.  A Titans loss doesn’t do it.  Not sure why...
 

I know Someone has to win the South they own a tiebreaker against the Colts it would seem like a loss by either would do it because we own the head to head tiebreaker on each 

 

[Zombo]

6 minutes ago, SdBacker80 said:

Correct.  A Titans loss doesn’t do it.  Not sure why...
 

I know Someone has to win the the South they own a tiebreaker against the Colts it would seem like a lose by either would do it because we own the head to head tiebreaker on each 

 

Probably something to do with the Ravens in a mass tie. The Ravens beat the Colts but lost to Titans, so maybe Titans go before Ravens, who go before us, and then you throw the Dolphins in there ...

Zombo

[Nero]

1 minute ago, Zombo said:

Probably something to do with the Ravens in a mass tie. The Ravens beat the Colts but lost to Titans, so maybe Titans go before Ravens, who go before us, and then you throw the Dolphins in there ...

Zombo

That's the scenario for that, I guess. 

[The Gipper]

3 hours ago, Nero said:

A Titans' loss doesn't work for us? 

EDIT: checked it doesn't because we have a worse division pct no matter what. 

EDIT 2: Actually it works because we won both games against both AFCS teams, so we are above whoever ends 2nd in that division. Amairait? 

We would have a tiebreaker vs. Tits because we beat them.  Also,  division record would not come into play against them....conference record could if there were a 3-4 way situation. 

[The Gipper]

4 hours ago, Zombo said:

After 15 Weeks the Browns are 10-4 and currently the 5th seed, the Top 7 make it. This Week the Browns are at the NY Jets,  and are currently 10.5 favorites. 

The Steelers finish up Week 15 tonight against Cincinnati, the Browns need a Bengal win to stay alive in the divisional race.

The Browns can clinch a playoff spot in Week 16 by beating the Jets, and a loss by either the Colts, Dolphins or Ravens.

This week's games with implications:

1. Miami @ Vegas: We rooted the Raiders out of our playoff sphere, now we need to root for them to win. GO RAIDERS!

2. NY Giants @ Baltimore: Maybe they'll play better than they did against us. GO GIANTS!

3. Indy @ Pittsburgh: We will know who to root for after tonight. If the Steelers beat the Bungles, then we root for the Colts to lose. WE'LL SEE!

and, if the Steelers beat the Bungles, we become interested in Buffalo losing to New England, only for potential seeding purposes.

 

 

I suspect that there must be some scenario where we would meet the Steelers  2 weeks in a row, which probably involves us beating them in the final game.  They lose to Colts and Browns.....Browns win out?  They probably still take the division based on division record?   

Unless, of course, they lose to Bengals, Colts and Browns!!   Bengals have their minds on the beach or golf game or draft pick status at this point, so I doubt that happen. 

[hoorta]

On 12/20/2020 at 11:56 AM, The Gipper said:

Or  a testament to the dis-parity, i.e. lack of parity,  that exists in the AFC right now.    Many good teams, many bad teams.  Not as many middle of the road teams. 

Right now, only the Pats and the Raiders are either .500 or within a game of .500.   Some years half the conference could be in that boat. 

Right now you have  8 teams that are  3 or more games over .500 in the AFC.   There are 6 teams that are 3 or more under .500.....and only those 2 teams that are even within 2, 1, or -0- games within .500.

Compare the NFC:   Only 5 teams  3 or more games above .500.  7 teams are  3 or more under .500.  and 4 are within 2 games of .500

The reason why we have so many AFC teams at 9-5 or better is there's 3 really bad AFC teams that have a combined 4 wins. 

In the race for the #1 overall pick, Jets lost by winning. Jags are now in the pole position. 

[Footbalfan1962]

This guy thinks the Ravens are super bowl contenders and Steelers and Browns are not

https://www.nfl.com/news/ranking-nfl-teams-most-likely-to-win-super-bowl-lv

[The Gipper]

2 hours ago, Footbalfan1962 said:

This guy thinks the Ravens are super bowl contenders and Steelers and Browns are not

https://www.nfl.com/news/ranking-nfl-teams-most-likely-to-win-super-bowl-lv

Everyone has an asshole and an opinion.  And sometimes the asshole has its own opinion. 

[The Gipper]

Hypotheticals:

Steelers lose last two games to Browns and Colts......they go 11-5

Browns win last 2 games vs. Jets and Steelers...they go 12-4 and win the Division!!

Ravens win last 2 games against their weakass schedule.  

So,  Steelers and Ravens  both 11-5.  Both could make playoffs I am suspect (Steelers have clinched berth) .....but....which one would have the seeding edge?

That would probably put Browns in at #3 seed behind KC/Buffalo.   

Colts or Titans could still end up  12-4.   Or one could be 12-4, the other 11-5  One would be #4, and the other?   5/6/7? 

Steelers and Ravens could be 11-5....in 5/6/7 seed.     Steelers have beaten the Ravens twice, so edge there.   One would play the Bills, one would play Browns.....unless also MIami got in there instead of Ravens?  

So maybe it is Steelers, Colts or Tits, and Dolphins for the 3 WC spots in that case.   It would be sweet if the RFCSs would be shut out. 

A lot of permutations......let's hope it happens!!

[mjp28]

6 hours ago, The Gipper said:

Hypotheticals:

Steelers lose last two games to Browns and Colts......they go 11-5

Browns win last 2 games vs. Jets and Steelers...they go 12-4 and win the Division!!  

Ravens win last 2 games against their weakass schedule.  

So,  Steelers and Ravens  both 11-5.  Both could make playoffs I am suspect (Steelers have clinched berth) .....but....which one would have the seeding edge?

That would probably put Browns in at #3 seed behind KC/Buffalo.   

Colts or Titans could still end up  12-4.   Or one could be 12-4, the other 11-5  One would be #4, and the other?   5/6/7? 

Steelers and Ravens could be 11-5....in 5/6/7 seed.     Steelers have beaten the Ravens twice, so edge there.   One would play the Bills, one would play Browns.....unless also MIami got in there instead of Ravens?  

So maybe it is Steelers, Colts or Tits, and Dolphins for the 3 WC spots in that case.   It would be sweet if the RFCSs would be shut out. 

A lot of permutations......let's hope it happens!!

Oh yes, nice job..... now we know what the die-hard BROWNS fans want for Christmas !   

Meanwhile I got my wife a nice stick on the window bird feeder to put on our dining room bay window, due for delivery today.  

[Nero]

It would say a lot of the level of the AFC North if Browns, Ravens and Steelers end up with 11 and 12 wins. That's something I don't remember I have even heard of. 

[mjp28]

22 minutes ago, Nero said:

It would say a lot of the level of the AFC North if Browns, Ravens and Steelers end up with 11 and 12 wins. That's something I don't remember I have even heard of. 

Good question there brother Nero I did find this with no NFL link or reference, the AFCN has been there before.   https://sports.stackexchange.com/questions/15319/nfl-division-with-3-teams-in-the-playoffs

The NFL started allowing two wildcard teams per conference to enter the playoffs in the 1978-79 season, and went to three wildcard teams in 1990-91. With only three divisions per conference, it was quite common to have three teams from one division in the playoffs. There were even two instances where there were four teams from the NFC Central division in the playoffs, in 1994-95 and 1997-98.

However, when the league went to four divisions and only two wildcard teams per conference in the 2002-03 season, this became somewhat less common. From that time up through the 2019-20 season, it happened 7 times:

• 2006-07 NFC East: Philadelphia Eagles, Dallas Cowboys, New York Giants
• 2007-08 AFC South: Indianapolis Colts, Jacksonville Jaguars, Tennessee Titans
• 2007-08 NFC East: Dallas Cowboys, New York Giants, Washington Redskins
• 2011-12 AFC North: Baltimore Ravens, Pittsburgh Steelers, Cincinnati Bengals
• 2013-14 AFC West: Denver Broncos, Kansas City Chiefs, San Diego Chargers
• 2014-15 AFC North: Pittsburgh Steelers, Cincinnati Bengals, Baltimore Ravens
• 2017-18 NFC South: New Orleans Saints, Carolina Panthers, Atlanta Falcons

Beginning with the 2020-21 season, the NFL has gone to 3 wildcard teams per conference in the playoffs, for a total of 7 playoff teams per conference. It will indeed be possible for all 3 wildcard teams to come from the same division, which would mean that every team in the division would have made it into the playoffs.

 

Edited December 22, 2020 by mjp28

[Nero]

2 minutes ago, mjp28 said:

Good question there brother Nero I did find this with no link or reference, the AFCN has been there before.

8

 

The NFL started allowing two wildcard teams per conference to enter the playoffs in the 1978-79 season, and went to three wildcard teams in 1990-91. With only three divisions per conference, it was quite common to have three teams from one division in the playoffs. There were even two instances where there were four teams from the NFC Central division in the playoffs, in 1994-95 and 1997-98.

However, when the league went to four divisions and only two wildcard teams per conference in the 2002-03 season, this became somewhat less common. From that time up through the 2019-20 season, it happened 7 times:

• 2006-07 NFC East: Philadelphia Eagles, Dallas Cowboys, New York Giants
• 2007-08 AFC South: Indianapolis Colts, Jacksonville Jaguars, Tennessee Titans
• 2007-08 NFC East: Dallas Cowboys, New York Giants, Washington Redskins
• 2011-12 AFC North: Baltimore Ravens, Pittsburgh Steelers, Cincinnati Bengals
• 2013-14 AFC West: Denver Broncos, Kansas City Chiefs, San Diego Chargers
• 2014-15 AFC North: Pittsburgh Steelers, Cincinnati Bengals, Baltimore Ravens
• 2017-18 NFC South: New Orleans Saints, Carolina Panthers, Atlanta Falcons

Beginning with the 2020-21 season, the NFL has gone to 3 wildcard teams per conference in the playoffs, for a total of 7 playoff teams per conference. It will indeed be possible for all 3 wildcard teams to come from the same division, which would mean that every team in the division would have made it into the playoffs.

 

I didn't explain myself properly. I know there have been divisions with 3 teams going to the playoffs. I was wondering about their winning pct. Having three teams above .685 seems insane. 

[mjp28]

4 minutes ago, Nero said:

I didn't explain myself properly. I know there have been divisions with 3 teams going to the playoffs. I was wondering about their winning pct. Having three teams above .685 seems insane. 

That I'm not sure or where you could find it right off hand.  Shows you the balance of power in one division over others that happen occasionally.

I thought before the season started with the AFCN and their 4 good quarterbacks they could do well on their out of division games.

[Nero]

Steelers have 3 losses.  4-1 in division games. That means they have lost twice to teams outside the division. 

Browns have 4 losses. 2-3 in division games. Only lost against the Raiders outside of the division. 

Ravens have 5 losses. 3-2 in division games. They have lost 3 times outside of the division. 

So from a total of 9x3 = 27 games, they have lost 6 combined games to teams outside rhe AFC North. So .777

AFC North is dominating. 

[MDDawg]

The Bengals with Ryan Finley were the last team I'd expect to do us a solid. This is why the NFL is the best league in the world! Go Browns and take the AFC North!!

[Orion]

The Titans are playing an NFC team.  So a loss would not affect their conference record.  I'm assuming that they would hold the tie-breaker in 'common games'.   Even with just two games left, the tie-breakers are quite complicated.  That's the kind of race we have going in the AFC this year.  We cannot stop winning yet. 

[SdBacker80]

Well now the Colts Steelers game is a positive either way.  

But If Vegas beats the Phins Saturday- we will be all on the Colts bandwagon.

The doom and gloom scenario we play for a division title Week 17 and the Phins somehow beat Vegas and Buffalo and it’s a win the division we are in - lose and we are out of the playoffs at 11-5.

[The Gipper]

4 hours ago, mjp28 said:

That I'm not sure or where you could find it right off hand.  Shows you the balance of power in one division over others that happen occasionally.

I thought before the season started with the AFCN and their 4 good quarterbacks they could do well on their out of division games.

You may have to go through either PFR or  Wikipedia  to find that info.   If I get a chance I will check it out. 

[The Gipper]

OK,  well, I thought I was going to have to do some deep digging to find a division that had 3 double digit winners......I did NOT have to do so.   

In fact, I only had to go back  10 years to find that it has happened  5 times, so I quit looking after that:

2017  NFCS  Saints 11-5, Panthers 11-5,  Atlanta  10-6

2014  AFCN  Pitt  11-5   Cincy  10-5-1,  Balt. 10-6

2013 NFCW  Seattle  13-3,  SFO  12-4,  Ariz.  10-6

2012  NFCN Packers  11-5, Viking 10-6, Bears  10-6

2010 NFCS   Falcons 13-3,  Saints 11-5, Bucs 10-6

This year we already have  2 teams with 10 wins in the AFCN,  Browns/Steelers;  and with Baltimore's weak remaining schedule, no doubt we will hit  3 

[The Gipper]

So,  OK,  I also went back and dug up everything since the 1970 Merger.

A.  The 4 division/4 team setup began in  2002.     One other time since then did a division have 3 double digit winners:  2007  AFC South

B. From 1979 until 2001  there were  3 divisions in each conference,  and the number of teams could range  from  4, 5, 6, maybe even 7 teams, playing a 16 game schedule.  The following seasons saw  3  double digit winners in a division:

2001 AFCE

1991  NFCE

1990 NFCE

1989 NFCE

1988 AFC Central

1986 AFCW

1985  AFCE  and NFCE

1984  AFCW

1981 AFCE

1979 NFCE

For the period of time I checked from 1970 merger to 1978  the NFL only played a 14 game schedule.  Nevertheless there were 2 division with 3 double digit winning teams:

1976  NFCE

1975  AFC Central......Pittsburgh, Cincinnati, Houston Oilers....but NOT the Browns. 🤬

[Zombo]

1 hour ago, The Gipper said:

OK,  well, I thought I was going to have to do some deep digging to find a division that had 3 double digit winners......I did NOT have to do so.   

In fact, I only had to go back  10 years to find that it has happened  5 times, so I quit looking after that:

2017  NFCS  Saints 11-5, Panthers 11-5,  Atlanta  10-6

2014  AFCN  Pitt  11-5   Cincy  10-5-1,  Balt. 10-6

2013 NFCW  Seattle  13-3,  SFO  12-4,  Ariz.  10-6

2012  NFCN Packers  11-5, Viking 10-6, Bears  10-6

2010 NFCS   Falcons 13-3,  Saints 11-5, Bucs 10-6

This year we already have  2 teams with 10 wins in the AFCN,  Browns/Steelers;  and with Baltimore's weak remaining schedule, no doubt we will hit  3 

The Division could end up:

Browns 12-4

Steelers 11-5

Ravens 11-5

Any division ever have three 11 game winners? I think not.

Zombo

[hoorta]

6 hours ago, Nero said:

It would say a lot of the level of the AFC North if Browns, Ravens and Steelers end up with 11 and 12 wins. That's something I don't remember I have even heard of. 

Ah my friend part of the reason our AFC North is doing so well is a very favorable schedule. We've been  beating up on the NFC LEast. Browns swept them. As they mentioned in this week's power rankings, the Ravens could have used a bye, they got the next best thing  playing the 1 win Jaguars. We beat them too. 

[The Gipper]

41 minutes ago, Zombo said:

The Division could end up:

Browns 12-4

Steelers 11-5

Ravens 11-5

Any division ever have three 11 game winners? I think not.

Zombo

I would have to go back through each of the ones I listed before.   I was only checking for 10 or more.  It may be possible there were 3 11 win teams, but I did not note it if there were. 

[The Gipper]

21 minutes ago, hoorta said:

Ah my friend part of the reason our AFC North is doing so well is a very favorable schedule. We've been  beating up on the NFC LEast. Browns swept them. As they mentioned in this week's power rankings, the Ravens could have used a bye, they got the next best thing  playing the 1 win Jaguars. We beat them too. 

Yea,  this year was an easy deal for the AFCN.  We got the bad NFCE,  plus the AFCS  which has the Jags, and a depleted Houston team...though Colts/Tits are tough.  And the Browns did get the 3rd place schedule, which gave them the Jets and Raiders from the other two divisions.  

Next year it is the NFCN,  a bit tougher.   Packers, Vikings, Lions, Bears  Oh my. 

[mjp28]

6 hours ago, Zombo said:

The Division could end up:

Browns 12-4

Steelers 11-5

Ravens 11-5

Any division ever have three 11 game winners? I think not.

Zombo

Generally teams that good beat each other up and from nero's post above:

 .......from a total of 9x3 = 27 games, they have lost 6 combined games to teams outside rhe AFC North. So .777

AFC North is dominating......

That's how thee 11+ win teams are possible.

GO BROWNS, and the AFCN just win......baby !

.......(and beat PIT on the season ender)

[ATOM]

we win and either the colts or dolphins lose we are in easy ass math

[hoorta]

On 12/21/2020 at 8:17 AM, Zombo said:

According to the NY Times Simulator, if we beat the Jets and the Titans lose to GB our chances are 99%, but not a clinch. So there must be a scenario where we could still be out somehow.

But I should have included that as one of the games with implications, go Packers!

Zombo

Correct Z, if there's a three way tie at 11-5, it gets dicey.     

On 12/21/2020 at 8:55 AM, Zombo said:

Probably something to do with the Ravens in a mass tie. The Ravens beat the Colts but lost to Titans, so maybe Titans go before Ravens, who go before us, and then you throw the Dolphins in there ...

Zombo

As above. Browns win out- we're in. AFCN champs should the Colts beat the Steelers as icing on the cake. Using the simulator, if we beat the Jets and lose to the Steelers- 11-5 is good enough as long as any of the following teams lose once in the last two weeks. Dolphins, Ravens, or Colts.     11-5 isn't good enough if the previous all win out. In that scenario, we're still in IF the Titans lose twice. 

So week 16- root for the Giants to upset the Ravens. A Browns & Colts win week 16 sets up a titanic matchup week 17. 

[Tour2ma]

10 hours ago, hoorta said:

Ah my friend part of the reason our AFC North is doing so well is a very favorable schedule. We've been  beating up on the NFC LEast. Browns swept them.

NFCE and half the AFCS... JAX and HOU have been soft touches. HOU is 0-3 with CIN remaining. JAX is 0-4.

Even the mighty Titans are only 1-3 with their lone AFCN win over BLT in OT.

Colts? 1-2 with the win over CIN and PTG upcoming.