AFC Playoff Picture

[The Gipper]

14 minutes ago, SdBacker80 said:

first some assumptions...

Ravens win out and the Browns taking 2 of the next 3- both are probable.

Phins need to drop one of the following  (NE, LV, BUF).

OR 

Colts need to lose one of their next three (they play Pit next week)

OR

Titans need to lose one of their next three (they still have to play at GB.)

If the Phins, Colts and the Titans all win out and we don’t win out. We are out. 
 

if we go 1-2. Dolphins have to lose two and they could lose two considering what is left. 
 

Colts and Titans each have a game left where they will be the underdog but they should be clear favorites in the other two. 

Wait,   you are saying the following, I think:

If Ravens end up 11-5,  and Colts end up 11-5, and Titans end up 11-5, and Dolphins end up 11-5, and Browns end up 11-5....then the Browns would be out?  Why?  First....we would only have to deal with one: either Tits or Colts, as one would be division winner.  But you are saying in a 4 way tie for 3 WCs we would be the odd man out?  Again, why?    Just thinking out loud here:

Ravens would own tiebreaker over us, sure.

Dolphins would end up with a better conference record....unless our 1 loss is to the Giants, then Browns would have the same conf record.  It would then have to go to the next tiebreakers, no?  We have tiebreaker over either Colts or Tits.

So how would we  be out? 

[SdBacker80]

1 hour ago, The Gipper said:

Wait,   you are saying the following, I think:

If Ravens end up 11-5,  and Colts end up 11-5, and Titans end up 11-5, and Dolphins end up 11-5, and Browns end up 11-5....then the Browns would be out?  Why?  First....we would only have to deal with one: either Tits or Colts, as one would be division winner.  But you are saying in a 4 way tie for 3 WCs we would be the odd man out?  Again, why?    Just thinking out loud here:

Ravens would own tiebreaker over us, sure.

Dolphins would end up with a better conference record....unless our 1 loss is to the Giants, then Browns would have the same conf record.  It would then have to go to the next tiebreakers, no?  We have tiebreaker over either Colts or Tits.

So how would we  be out? 

I ran the NYTimes probability on the Browns going 2-1 and I ran the scenario where we beat Pitt and Jets and the Titans, Colts, Ravens and Dolphins all winning out.  
 

We were out.  Titans and Colts 12-4. Ravens, Phins, Browns 11-5.   We are watching other teams wildcard weekend 

we lose the second tiebreaker to the Dolphins when three or more teams are tied: Division Record. Dolphins 4-2 Browns 3-3. 

If we lose a game we do not control our own destiny BUT there needs to be a lot that goes wrong.

some of that mayhem would be:

Titans beat Packers

Colts beat Steelers

Dolphins beat Bills

 

Note: Dolphins could easily lose out.  They couldn’t handle NE and their run game week 1 and Belichick owns rookie QBs.  Vegas on the road not easy same with Bills and hopefully the Bills are still playing for something.

The most likely scenario is we get in as a 6 seed and play Buffalo first round.

Rats at Titans

Browns at Bills

Colts at Steelers 

[The Gipper]

25 minutes ago, SdBacker80 said:

I ran the NYTimes probability on the Browns going 2-1 and I ran the scenario where we beat Pitt and Jets and the Titans, Colts, Ravens and Dolphins all winning out.  
 

We were out.  Titans and Colts 12-4. Ravens, Phins, Browns 11-5.   We are watching other teams wildcard weekend 

we lose the second tiebreaker to the Dolphins when three or more teams are tied: Division Record. Dolphins 4-2 Browns 3-3. 

But...I don't think Division record comes into play except between teams in the same division...which the Dolphins are not. Does it?  Isn't it more like "common opponents" or something? 

If we lose a game we do not control our own destiny BUT there needs to be a lot that goes wrong.

some of that mayhem would be:

Titans beat Packers

Colts beat Steelers

Dolphins beat Bills

 

Note: Dolphins could easily lose out.  They couldn’t handle NE and their run game week 1 and Belichick owns rookie QBs.  Vegas on the road not easy same with Bills and hopefully the Bills are still playing for something.

The most likely scenario is we get in as a 6 seed and play Buffalo first round.

Rats at Titans

Browns at Bills

Colts at Steelers 

 

[SdBacker80]

5 minutes ago, The Gipper said:

 

https://www.nfl.com/standings/tie-breaking-procedures

 

you are right and conference record would be 8-4.  And it would be Common opponent 

Raiders, Bengals, Jets, Jags-  Dolphins 5-0.

Browns. 4-1

We are out 

 

[The Gipper]

2 minutes ago, SdBacker80 said:

https://www.nfl.com/standings/tie-breaking-procedures

 

Three or More Clubs

(Note: If two clubs remain tied after third or other clubs are eliminated, tie breaker reverts to step 1 of applicable two-club format.)

1. Apply division tie breaker to eliminate all but the highest ranked club in each division prior to proceeding to step 2. The original seeding within a division upon application of the division tie breaker remains the same for all subsequent applications of the procedure that are necessary to identify the two Wild-Card participants.
2. Head-to-head sweep. (Applicable only if one club has defeated each of the others or if one club has lost to each of the others.)
3. Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the conference.
4. Best won-lost-tied percentage in common games, minimum of four

Is what you are saying that if the Browns, Ravens, Colts, and Dolphins all tie.....the Ravens would get in because they swept the Browns.......and the Colts and Dolphins get in because the Ravens swept the Browns?   I think Z and I had this conversation before.   And I still think it would/should be bullshit.  OK, Ravens get in over us with same record. Fine.  But why should the Colts who would have the same record  and who we beat piggy back on the Ravens there.  And why should the Fins do the same, if we have the edge in another tiebreaker? Like better common games or the like. 

[SdBacker80]

5 minutes ago, The Gipper said:

Three or More Clubs

(Note: If two clubs remain tied after third or other clubs are eliminated, tie breaker reverts to step 1 of applicable two-club format.)

1. Apply division tie breaker to eliminate all but the highest ranked club in each division prior to proceeding to step 2. The original seeding within a division upon application of the division tie breaker remains the same for all subsequent applications of the procedure that are necessary to identify the two Wild-Card participants.
2. Head-to-head sweep. (Applicable only if one club has defeated each of the others or if one club has lost to each of the others.)
3. Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the conference.
4. Best won-lost-tied percentage in common games, minimum of four

Is what you are saying that if the Browns, Ravens, Colts, and Dolphins all tie.....the Ravens would get in because they swept the Browns.......and the Colts and Dolphins get in because the Ravens swept the Browns?   I think Z and I had this conversation before.   And I still think it would/should be bullshit.  OK, Ravens get in over us with same record. Fine.  But why should the Colts who would have the same record  and who we beat piggy back on the Ravens there.  And why should the Fins do the same, if we have the edge in another tiebreaker? Like better common games or the like. 

See above common opponent.  If the Phins win out and we go 2-1 beating two afc teams

My hypothetical assumed Browns go 2-1. Colts Titans, Rats and Phins all win out.

Titans AFC South Champs
Colts would have a better record 12-4 vs 11-5.
Rats- head to head.

Phins- Tie Conference 8-4. Common opponent Phins win  

[The Gipper]

12 minutes ago, SdBacker80 said:

See above common opponent.  If the Phins win out and we go 2-1 beating two afc teams

My hypothetical assumed Browns go 2-1. Colts Titans, Rats and Phins all win out.

Titans AFC South Champs
Colts would have a better record 12-4 vs 11-5.
Rats- head to head.

Phins- Tie Conference 8-4. Common opponent Phins win  

You originally said "division record" not conference record.  I agree that if they had a better conference record, they would have the edge. 

[SdBacker80]

5 minutes ago, The Gipper said:

You originally said "division record" not conference record.  I agree that if they had a better conference record, they would have the edge. 

And I corrected myself and said that we lose on common opponent.  5-0 vs. 4-1.

The Phins would not have a better conference record if we beat the Steelers and Jets but lose to the Giants.  We would both be 8-4.

So at 11-5 we COULD be out if The four teams I mentioned above ALL win out.  
 

[The Gipper]

4 minutes ago, SdBacker80 said:

And I corrected myself and said that we lose on common opponent.  5-0 vs. 4-1.

The Phins would not have a better conference record if we beat the Steelers and Jets but lose to the Giants.  We would both be 8-4.

So at 11-5 we COULD be out if The four teams I mentioned above ALL win out.  
 

OK,  so, the Browns and Dolphins have the following common opponents:

Jags/Jets twice for Fins/Bengals twice for Browns /Raiders.   Dolphins are currently  4-0 with one game remaining (Raiders).  Browns are 3-1 with one game (Jets),  they lost to the Raiders. 

Dolphins go to Las Vegas on  12/26.   So we definitely want the Raiders to win that one. 

[SdBacker80]

We Clinch next Sunday evening if 

Dolphins lose to NE this week or Vegas next week and we beat the Giants and Jets

or

Colts lose one of this week or next week and we beat the Giants and Jets.

or
Titans lose one of this week or next week and we beat the Giants and Jets.

or 

Ravens lose this week or next week and we beat the Giants and Jets

High probability that we clinch before the Steeler game 

[MDDawg]

So who should we be rooting for this weekend?

[The Gipper]

1 hour ago, MDDawg said:

So who should we be rooting for this weekend?

Cleveland vs. NYG

Cincy  vs. Pitt

Jacksonville vs.  Baltimore 

New England vs. Miami

Houston vs. Indy

Detroit vs. Tenn. 

[Dutch Oven]

21 minutes ago, The Gipper said:

Cleveland vs. NYG

Cincy  vs. Pitt

Jacksonville vs.  Baltimore 

New England vs. Miami

Houston vs. Indy

Detroit vs. Tenn. 

Perhaps New England and Houston could help us out... 

[Tour2ma]

I am starting to reconsider my "I want Buffalo" position...

Looking absolutely beastly in Denver today.

[hoorta]

On 12/18/2020 at 1:49 PM, SdBacker80 said:

And I corrected myself and said that we lose on common opponent.  5-0 vs. 4-1.

The Phins would not have a better conference record if we beat the Steelers and Jets but lose to the Giants.  We would both be 8-4.

So at 11-5 we COULD be out if The four teams I mentioned above ALL win out.  
 

OK, if you want to talk worst case scenarios. I'll let Gipper look up the number of times (if any) an 11-5 team has missed the playoffs.  

Personally,  I don't give a rat. Go 'Fins, send the Patsies home for the holidays. 

[Flugel]

7 hours ago, hoorta said:

OK, if you want to talk worst case scenarios. I'll let Gipper look up the number of times (if any) an 11-5 team has missed the playoffs.  

Personally,  I don't give a rat. Go 'Fins, send the Patsies home for the holidays. 

If this team goes 11-5 and doesn't make the playoffs - it won't change my mind about how proud I am of them  There's going to be teams in the NFC Playoffs with less wins.  Does it really mean they're better?   No.  If I thought we had the personnel on defense to beat KC - it would clobber me.  Let's be honest - we don't.

We saw epic progress from last year starting with the HC hired to the overall improvement on the field.  When you have to install and teach new offensive and defensive systems without doing it in person - the challenge began with adversity.  Nothing (inclusive of untimely injuries/illnesses to Garrett, Harrison, Ward, Teller, OBJ) stopped this staff and team from working diligently from day 1 to get us to 9-4 today.  We've been waiting a LONG time to take a big 1st step forward; and here it is.  Epic progress that I would love to see rewarded with this team making the playoffs.   I've really enjoyed watching this team compete as hard as they can every week.  They wouldn't do that if they didn't believe in the leadership guiding them. 

I can't wait to see what happens next!  Was I able to say something like this the 2 years we went 1-31?  

 

[SdBacker80]

20 hours ago, MDDawg said:

So who should we be rooting for this weekend?

this is all you need to know....We Clinch next Sunday evening if 

Dolphins lose to NE today or Vegas next week and we beat the Giants and Jets

or

Colts lose one of today or next week and we beat the Giants and Jets.

or
Titans lose one of today or next week and we beat the Giants and Jets.

or 

Ravens lose one of today or next week and we beat the Giants and Jets

High probability that we clinch before the Steeler game

[SdBacker80]

15 hours ago, Tour2ma said:

I am starting to reconsider my "I want Buffalo" position...

Looking absolutely beastly in Denver today.

The way we schemed a running QB Monday night ...  I agree.  

[The Gipper]

8 hours ago, hoorta said:

OK, if you want to talk worst case scenarios. I'll let Gipper look up the number of times (if any) an 11-5 team has missed the playoffs.  

Personally,  I don't give a rat. Go 'Fins, send the Patsies home for the holidays. 

How much are you paying me for that job?  

I will give you one for free:  Patriots the year Brady was out/Cassel replaced him.  Went 11-5 and did not make it.

For more than that, you are going to have to take a walk on the wild side.  A hustle here, a hustle there...doo doo doo doo doo doo doo. 

[The Gipper]

18 hours ago, Dutch Oven said:

Perhaps New England and Houston could help us out... 

I predict that NE will do so, but not Houston. 

[SdBacker80]

8 hours ago, hoorta said:

OK, if you want to talk worst case scenarios. I'll let Gipper look up the number of times (if any) an 11-5 team has missed the playoffs.  

Personally,  I don't give a rat. Go 'Fins, send the Patsies home for the holidays. 

Pats are 6-7? 

We may not see a 10-6 team make the playoff in the AFC.  You will not see a 9-7 team. Mark it down.  I know they have a slim mathematical chance but it involves team like Baltimore losing to Jax and the Browns losing to Jets and the Colts and Titans losing to the Texans 

We need to root for Billy B and that 21-7 record vs. rookie QBs and the fact that they ran all over the Phins early in the year. 
 

[Dutch Oven]

4 minutes ago, SdBacker80 said:

Pats are 6-7? 

We may not see a 10-6 team make the playoff in the AFC.  You will not see a 9-7 team. Mark it down.  I know they have a slim mathematical chance but it involves team like Baltimore losing to Jax and the Browns losing to Jets and the Colts and Titans losing to the Texans 

We need to root for Billy B and that 21-7 record vs. rookie QBs and the fact that they ran all over the Phins early in the year. 
 

It's crazy that there will be SEVEN teams in the AFC playoffs, and I agree with you, a great chance all the wildcard teams are 11-5 and better. Shenanigans. 

[The Gipper]

26 minutes ago, Dutch Oven said:

It's crazy that there will be SEVEN teams in the AFC playoffs, and I agree with you, a great chance all the wildcard teams are 11-5 and better. Shenanigans. 

Or  a testament to the dis-parity, i.e. lack of parity,  that exists in the AFC right now.    Many good teams, many bad teams.  Not as many middle of the road teams. 

Right now, only the Pats and the Raiders are either .500 or within a game of .500.   Some years half the conference could be in that boat. 

Right now you have  8 teams that are  3 or more games over .500 in the AFC.   There are 6 teams that are 3 or more under .500.....and only those 2 teams that are even within 2, 1, or -0- games within .500.

Compare the NFC:   Only 5 teams  3 or more games above .500.  7 teams are  3 or more under .500.  and 4 are within 2 games of .500

[The Gipper]

Here are the current interconference records of each team in the NFL:

NFL Team Win Trends - Non-Conference Games, 2020

Win/LossATSOver/Under

Definitions

                                                                         

Team	Win-Loss Record	Win %	MOV	ATS +/-
Kansas City	2-0-0	100.0%	2.5	-4.2
Indianapolis	4-0-0	100.0%	12.0	+9.0
Tennessee	2-0-0	100.0%	4.0	-0.8
Baltimore	3-0-0	100.0%	11.0	-0.2
Cleveland	3-0-0	100.0%	10.0	+7.8
Seattle	3-1-0	75.0%	10.0	+3.0
Buffalo	3-1-0	75.0%	5.2	+6.8
Pittsburgh	3-1-0	75.0%	4.5	-3.8
Miami	3-1-0	75.0%	8.0	+13.6
Tampa Bay	3-1-0	75.0%	11.8	+8.4
New Orleans	2-1-0	66.7%	7.0	-2.3
Atlanta	2-1-0	66.7%	13.7	+13.7
Green Bay	2-1-0	66.7%	5.3	+0.5
Arizona	2-2-0	50.0%	4.0	-0.2
Las Vegas	2-2-0	50.0%	-12.0	-11.8
San Francisco	2-2-0	50.0%	2.2	-1.2
NY Giants	1-1-0	50.0%	-4.0	-4.2
Washington	2-2-0	50.0%	-2.8	+3.6
Minnesota	2-2-0	50.0%	-1.8	-1.9
Chicago	1-2-0	33.3%	4.7	+8.3
Detroit	1-2-0	33.3%	-6.0	-4.8
LA Rams	1-2-0	33.3%	2.3	0.0
LA Chargers	1-3-0	25.0%	-3.0	-1.1
Denver	1-3-0	25.0%	-12.0	-4.1
Carolina	1-3-0	25.0%	-1.5	+2.2
Dallas	1-3-0	25.0%	-2.5	+1.5
New England	1-3-0	25.0%	-12.5	-10.8
Houston	1-3-0	25.0%	-9.0	-10.2
Philadelphia	0-3-1	0.0%	-4.0	-0.2
NY Jets	0-3-0	0.0%	-25.0	-14.8
Cincinnati	0-3-1	0.0%	-9.0	-4.8
Jacksonville	0-3-0	0.0%	-8.3	+0.7

[Flugel]

17 hours ago, Tour2ma said:

I am starting to reconsider my "I want Buffalo" position...

Looking absolutely beastly in Denver today.

I hear ya!  They're a dangerous team with playoff experience.  If I remember correctly, it looked like they were going to upset Houston in the 1st round of the playoffs.  That is, until DeShaun Watson turned 3 very should-be tacklers (on the same play) into feeling like Wiley Coyote trying to catch the Roadrunner.   

Buffalo looks like they are ready to take that next step this year.  LOVED watching them beat Pittsburgh.

[Orion]

Dolphins beat the Pat's to go to 9-5.   - ( eliminate Pat's )

[SdBacker80]

Playoff update:

Next week Browns win

Coupled with a

Ravens Loss or Colts loss or Dolphins Loss or Titans loss 

Browns clinch wildcard 

[LondonBrown]

ADD A WIN ONTO THE BROWNS 

[Zombo]

After 15 Weeks the Browns are 10-4 and currently the 5th seed, the Top 7 make it. This Week the Browns are at the NY Jets,  and are currently 10.5 favorites. 

The Steelers finish up Week 15 tonight against Cincinnati, the Browns need a Bengal win to stay alive in the divisional race.

The Browns can clinch a playoff spot in Week 16 by beating the Jets, and a loss by either the Colts, Dolphins or Ravens.

This week's games with implications:

1. Miami @ Vegas: We rooted the Raiders out of our playoff sphere, now we need to root for them to win. GO RAIDERS!

2. NY Giants @ Baltimore: Maybe they'll play better than they did against us. GO GIANTS!

3. Indy @ Pittsburgh: We will know who to root for after tonight. If the Steelers beat the Bungles, then we root for the Colts to lose. WE'LL SEE!

and, if the Steelers beat the Bungles, we become interested in Buffalo losing to New England, only for potential seeding purposes.

 

 

[Nero]

37 minutes ago, Zombo said:

After 15 Weeks the Browns are 10-4 and currently the 5th seed, the Top 7 make it. This Week the Browns are at the NY Jets,  and are currently 10.5 favorites. 

The Steelers finish up Week 15 tonight against Cincinnati, the Browns need a Bengal win to stay alive in the divisional race.

The Browns can clinch a playoff spot in Week 16 by beating the Jets, and a loss by either the Colts, Dolphins or Ravens.

This week's games with implications:

1. Miami @ Vegas: We rooted the Raiders out of our playoff sphere, now we need to root for them to win. GO RAIDERS!

2. NY Giants @ Baltimore: Maybe they'll play better than they did against us. GO GIANTS!

3. Indy @ Pittsburgh: We will know who to root for after tonight. If the Steelers beat the Bungles, then we root for the Colts to lose. WE'LL SEE!

and, if the Steelers beat the Bungles, we become interested in Buffalo losing to New England, only for potential seeding purposes.

 

 

A Titans' loss doesn't work for us? 

EDIT: checked it doesn't because we have a worse division pct no matter what. 

EDIT 2: Actually it works because we won both games against both AFCS teams, so we are above whoever ends 2nd in that division. Amairait?