Mock Drafts & Draft Prospects

[gumby73]

16 hours ago, Flugel said:

LB. Jaylan Ford, Texas 6-2 235 - Made 119 Tackles with 10 TFL as a junior and 101 Tackles with 10.5 TFL as a senior. Projected as a 3 down LBer at the next level with 6 INTs and 4 PBU over the last 2 years.

Ford's tape matches his numbers. Interested to see if GM's group Ford with bucks Tommy E or UNC Cedric Grey's round projections of 4th round. Good find Flug's !  

[Flugel]

5 minutes ago, gumby73 said:

Ford's tape matches his numbers. Interested to see if GM's group Ford with bucks Tommy E or UNC Cedric Grey's round projections of 4th round. Good find Flug's !  

Thanks Gumbs!  One thing I like about Lindy's Draft Mag is they listed him as an ILB where the Athlon Draft mag just lists all LBers (but shows their stats for all years played, which I really like).  

I was deciding between between Colson and him.  Colson is actually rated higher.  Lindy's projects Colson in round 2 and Athlon projects him in round 3 where they project him as their 3rd highest rated LB and Ford as their 5th highest rated LB. I leaned the way I did because of the 6 INTs from Ford the last 2 years and none from Colson.  Also, I factored in that I put Payton Wilson my list of 5 favorite prospects for 2nd round.  These 2 rounds I made sure we had an OLB and and ILB and both being good in coverage. 

Both Ford and Colson were blessed with terrific DTs in front of them to make their lives against the run easier.

You mentioned UNC's Cedric Gray - Lindy's top rated ILB is Cedric Gray with a projection of rd 1-2 while Athlon (rating all the LBers together) lists him as their 4th highest rated LB with a rd 3 projection.  

The variance of ratings and projections make this a little challenging but it's fun getting more familiar with what they've done and what they can offer teams in the draft.

[tiamat63]

 The nice thing about watching Colson, which I still need to get back to Dutch on, is that there's all-22 available from a couple UM games this season. 

 So out of curiosity I'm wondering why the media hype for JJ McCarthy because, uhh, the first round abilities just aren't self evident.

[MLD Woody]

1 hour ago, tiamat63 said:

 The nice thing about watching Colson, which I still need to get back to Dutch on, is that there's all-22 available from a couple UM games this season. 

 So out of curiosity I'm wondering why the media hype for JJ McCarthy because, uhh, the first round abilities just aren't self evident.

It's crazy how fast JJ has been shooting up draft boards. I've seen him mocked 3 or 4 overall. 

He absolutely has throws that showcase his talent, just not a lot of them because we didn't need them. 

I think teams are really falling for the intangibles too. 

But a lower sample size still limits scouting reliability at already a not reliable position. 

Will be interesting to see if the draft buzz is smoke and mirrors or if it'll stick. 

[tiamat63]

2 hours ago, MLD Woody said:

It's crazy how fast JJ has been shooting up draft boards. I've seen him mocked 3 or 4 overall. 

He absolutely has throws that showcase his talent, just not a lot of them because we didn't need them. 

I think teams are really falling for the intangibles too. 

But a lower sample size still limits scouting reliability at already a not reliable position. 

Will be interesting to see if the draft buzz is smoke and mirrors or if it'll stick. 

 He seems a decent kid, despite the corny ass goalpost "meditation" and he was the QB on a national championship squad.  So that will also get you looks. 

 It isn't so much his throws, as it was his decision making.  50/50. And the UM coaching staff was very intent on taking the ball out of his hands at times.  On one side, I understand and JJ did what was asked of him.  On the other side, there were quite a lot of times the offense failed to function when it ran through the QB.  

 Not so much what I *am* seeing, as what I *am not* seeing.   The problem is overvaluing the prospect.

 JJ is no better a prospect than Will Levis and he fell out of the first round entirely. 

 

I often wonder how much of these stories are cooked up by GMs and front offices that "lesser" GMs eat up and end with making a reality out of said hype. 

[Dutch Oven]

8 hours ago, Flugel said:

Thanks Gumbs!  One thing I like about Lindy's Draft Mag is they listed him as an ILB where the Athlon Draft mag just lists all LBers (but shows their stats for all years played, which I really like).  

I was deciding between between Colson and him.  Colson is actually rated higher.  Lindy's projects Colson in round 2 and Athlon projects him in round 3 where they project him as their 3rd highest rated LB and Ford as their 5th highest rated LB. I leaned the way I did because of the 6 INTs from Ford the last 2 years and none from Colson.  Also, I factored in that I put Payton Wilson my list of 5 favorite prospects for 2nd round.  These 2 rounds I made sure we had an OLB and and ILB and both being good in coverage. 

Both Ford and Colson were blessed with terrific DTs in front of them to make their lives against the run easier.

You mentioned UNC's Cedric Gray - Lindy's top rated ILB is Cedric Gray with a projection of rd 1-2 while Athlon (rating all the LBers together) lists him as their 4th highest rated LB with a rd 3 projection.  

The variance of ratings and projections make this a little challenging but it's fun getting more familiar with what they've done and what they can offer teams in the draft.

I like the idea of Colson being a good complement to JOK, which is why I'm intrigued by him. 

[Dutch Oven]

7 hours ago, tiamat63 said:

 The nice thing about watching Colson, which I still need to get back to Dutch on, is that there's all-22 available from a couple UM games this season. 

 So out of curiosity I'm wondering why the media hype for JJ McCarthy because, uhh, the first round abilities just aren't self evident.

Got any connections to Connor Stalions?

Oh wait... he wouldn't have a ton of scouting videos for his team.... 

[TexasAg1969]

5 hours ago, tiamat63 said:

 He seems a decent kid, despite the corny ass goalpost "meditation" and he was the QB on a national championship squad.  So that will also get you looks. 

 It isn't so much his throws, as it was his decision making.  50/50. And the UM coaching staff was very intent on taking the ball out of his hands at times.  On one side, I understand and JJ did what was asked of him.  On the other side, there were quite a lot of times the offense failed to function when it ran through the QB.  

 Not so much what I *am* seeing, as what I *am not* seeing.   The problem is overvaluing the prospect.

 JJ is no better a prospect than Will Levis and he fell out of the first round entirely. 

 

I often wonder how much of these stories are cooked up by GMs and front offices that "lesser" GMs eat up and end with making a reality out of said hype. 

Yep, it's the silly season and only the dumbest fall for the fake outs.

[syd]

[syd]

Just now, syd said:

wtf ?

[gumby73]

11 hours ago, Flugel said:

 The variance of ratings and projections make this a little challenging but it's fun getting more familiar with what they've done and what they can offer teams in the draft.

can't remember a year where Walter's, ESPN, Pff & the mock draft database, have draftees round/prospect projections differing this much, a month from the draft.  Good point sir.. Some of Kiper's bpa on board, could get passed on by a full round       

[Orion]

Round 5, pick 156  -  Javon Foster  LT  (6'5  319)  is a three-year starter inside Missouri's RPO-heavy, zone-based run scheme with 41 career starts primarily at left tackle, including 13 starts in 2023. Foster has excellent arm length with a lean, high-cut build and good athletic ability.

[Flugel]

5 hours ago, Dutch Oven said:

I like the idea of Colson being a good complement to JOK, which is why I'm intrigued by him. 

Me too!   That said, if he goes before we pick I think Ford offers us the same type of complement to JOK. Last year our ILB was a liability against the pass so we're filling a major need and weakness with either of these guys.

In the last 2 years: Ford had 6 INTs, 21.5 TFL, 3 sacks, 220 Tackles in 27 Games. Colson had 0 INTs, 8 TFL, 2 sacks, 196 Tackles in 29 Games.  Both were ILBs projecting to be ILBs at the next level.  

[Flugel]

On 3/24/2024 at 2:42 PM, Flugel said:

Here's a random order of my top 5 guys for round 3:

OG/OT. Isaiah Adams, Illinois 6-4 318 - He was a Team Captain that played LG in 2022 before moving to RT and playing well in 2023.

WR. Brenden Rice, USC 6-3 210 - Scored 12 TDs in 2023 on 45 receptions for 791 yards at 17.6 YPC. Jerry Rice is his dad so I have a good feeling about his work ethic, upside and access to the best tutor possible.

RB. Braelon Allen, Wisconsin 6-2 245 - Oh yes I did!  He's only 20 years old.  As an 17 year old Freshman in the Big 10 - he rushed for 1268 yards while averaging 6.8 yards per carry and scoring 12 rushing TDs.  1 year later, he ran for 1242 yards at 5.4 YPC and scoring 11 TDs.  As a 19 year old he only played 11 games and rushed for 984 yards with the 5.4 YPC average again scoring 12 TDs on the ground again. It says he'll only be 20 years old for his entire rookie season.  

LB. Jaylan Ford, Texas 6-2 235 - Made 119 Tackles with 10 TFL as a junior and 101 Tackles with 10.5 TFL as a senior. Projected as a 3 down LBer at the next level with 6 INTs and 4 PBU over the last 2 years.  

SAFETY. Jaden Hicks, Washington State 6-3 212 -76 Tackles in 2022 and 79 Tackles in 2023 with 6 TFL and 2.5 sacks. 

To set up my 5 favorite choices for round 3 above - these were the 5 favorites I posted for round 2 about 10 days ago in random order:

Troy Franklin, WR Oregon 6-3 187lbs  - 81 rec 1383 yards 14 TDs in 2023 and 61 rec 891 yards 9 TDs in 2022

Brandon Dorlus, DT/DE Oregon 6-3 290lbs  - Can play inside or outside like a Poor Man's Richard Seymore and productive at both.

Cooper Beebe, OIL Kansas state 6-4 335lbs - Ferocious 4 year starter with great technique and polished fundamentals.  Experience at Guard and Tackle on both sides.  Only in the football sense - he warms my groins...

Tyler Nubin, S Minnesota 6-2 210lbs - 4 year starter. Can play free safety or strong safety. The last 3 of his 4 years starting he ranged from 52-55 tackles. GREAT open-field tackler with 9 INTs 7 PBUs in the last 2 years and I love his frame almost as much as his football IQ. If gone, Calen Bullock, 6-3 USC 190lbs - 63 tackles 2 INTs 7 PBU in 2023 and 48 tackles 5 INTs 5 PBU

Payton Wilson LB NC State 6-4 238lbs  Great instincts, deceptive speed, good pass defender, great combine workout, 138 tackles and 6 INTs in 2023.  Biggest concern is he's had some serious injuries in the past but not recent.

[Flugel]

8 hours ago, Orion said:

Round 5, pick 156  -  Javon Foster  LT  (6'5  319)  is a three-year starter inside Missouri's RPO-heavy, zone-based run scheme with 41 career starts primarily at left tackle, including 13 starts in 2023. Foster has excellent arm length with a lean, high-cut build and good athletic ability.

This looks like great value at a position we have to upgrade.  Definitely someone to keep our eye during the draft...

[Dutch Oven]

Alright Flugs, Gumby and anyone else who would like to play along...

If the Browns had a first round pick, they would have the #23 overall pick. Post three guys you'd like who would probably be available. 

[gumby73]

11 minutes ago, Dutch Oven said:

Post three guys you'd like who would probably be available. 

 Adonai Mitchell 

Jer'Zhan Newton  

Xavier Worthy

 

Just for fun.. Image TE Brock Bowers working across from Njoku ?

[tiamat63]

 Not to bogard the thread, obviously I'm proud of the work you guys are putting in here.  Good discussion and sharing of mutual knowledge and passion.   It's an extra busy time for me, which sucks because you boys know this is my element. 

 That said, looking at setting up a community film review.  Straight forward, I host, you join, I share my screen(s) and we eval a particular player.  I'm looking at LB names and this Jaylon Ford kid from Texas has been mentioned several times.   

We'll take a clean look, find a couple game cutups and breakdown plays. 

 How does that work for you guys?  Friday night - probably 6:45p-ish? 

[Flugel]

1 hour ago, tiamat63 said:

 Not to bogard the thread, obviously I'm proud of the work you guys are putting in here.  Good discussion and sharing of mutual knowledge and passion.   It's an extra busy time for me, which sucks because you boys know this is my element. 

 That said, looking at setting up a community film review.  Straight forward, I host, you join, I share my screen(s) and we eval a particular player.  I'm looking at LB names and this Jaylon Ford kid from Texas has been mentioned several times.   

We'll take a clean look, find a couple game cutups and breakdown plays. 

 How does that work for you guys?  Friday night - probably 6:45p-ish? 

Thanks! That might work Friday.  I'll let you know later in the week. 

[Orion]

3 hours ago, Dutch Oven said:

Alright Flugs, Gumby and anyone else who would like to play along...

If the Browns had a first round pick, they would have the #23 overall pick. Post three guys you'd like who would probably be available. 

Xavier Legette, WR, South Carolina      or     Xavier Worthy, WR, Texas      or      Keon Coleman, WR, Florida State.

[Flugel]

9 hours ago, Dutch Oven said:

Alright Flugs, Gumby and anyone else who would like to play along...

If the Browns had a first round pick, they would have the #23 overall pick. Post three guys you'd like who would probably be available. 

3 guys and they're all slight reaches that should go after #23 and before #35 overall:

Quinyon Mitchell, CB Toledo 6-0 195lbs. Lindy's writes: set a school record 25 pass break-ups and 5 INTs in 2022 (edit: Athlon Sports only shows 19 PBUs for him that year - still killer good but I'm disappointed there's a discrepancy on that info), In 40 starts overall he has a a program record of 46 pass break-ups.  Had a pair of pick 6s and 4 INTs against Northern Illinois. Flugel's piggyback: You know it's coming whether it's a pressing need or not. Andrew Berry was a 4 years starter as a CB and 3 time All-Ivy League Team selection and an All American honoree so he thinks Corner is very important.  He's right!  

T'Vondre Sweat, DT Texas 6-4 362lbs. I'm gonna trust my gut, his gut, and others', plus his 2023 Outland Trophy Award as well as his 1st Team All American honor. He'll be invaluable to our LBs.  He's a 362 pound reason Jaylan Ford was a 2 time All Big 12 Selection and a Butkus Award Finalist on his way to becoming 1 of this goofball's 3rd round hopefuls.  How can I possibly root for this chemistry to end?

Jordan Morgan, LT Arizona 6-5 325lbs. Blindside Pass Protector without frequent episodes of narcolepsy anyone? 3 years of starting experience.  Described as a strong kid with solid short area quickness that likes to finish blocks?  This is like driving by an all you can eat buffet when you're hungry - it's a dream come true.  Both Lindy's and Athlon Sports Draft Mags have him going to NE at #34 overall in their Mock Drafts.  Having said that, beyond the generous salary commitment to your QB investment should be a better plan to protect the QB's blind side on the edge.  Lazy doesn't cut it while we can ill-afford to watch a barely touched edge rusher with a head of steam planting Watson on his right shoulder. JMO, a lack of attention to this would be irresponsible.  Improving LT should have been the off-season thesis of the Browns.  

Edited March 26 by Flugel

[syd]

Browns NFL Draft Profile: LB Jeremiah Trotter Jr.

[syd]

NFL draft: List of Browns official visits, meetings with draft prospects based

[syd]

2. Luke McCaffrey, WR, Rice

9 OF 10

 

George Walker/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images

"His dad played 13 years in the NFL" should not get someone drafted. Same for "his grandpa was an Olympic sprinter," "his mom played soccer at Stanford" and "his brother is Christian McCaffrey."

But it's worth paying attention to Luke McCaffrey.

As part of the 2019 class, he enrolled at Nebraska as a quarterback. McCaffrey transferred to Rice in 2021, shifted to wide receiver in 2022 and caught 58 passes for 723 yards and six scores. Last year, he piled up 71 receptions for 992 yards and 13 touchdowns.

McCaffrey then ran a 4.46-second 40 at the combine. He also posted the fastest shuttle run and second-best three-cone time among receivers.

McCaffrey is only 185th on the latest B/R big board, which is understandable. He's a recent convert to the position and put up those numbers opposite mostly AAC competition. Still, he's clearly worth a late-round flier.

[tiamat63]

33 minutes ago, syd said:

NFL draft: List of Browns official visits, meetings with draft prospects based

 

As expected - trench heavy. 

[syd]

9 minutes ago, tiamat63 said:

 

As expected - trench heavy. 

i am  hoping O-LINE we really need to shread some dollars there. And of course Depth.

[tiamat63]

On 3/26/2024 at 9:11 AM, Flugel said:

Thanks! That might work Friday.  I'll let you know later in the week. 

 

I'll be on tonight, for Flugs and whomever else might want to join.  Around 8:15pm EST.  

 

Again, doesn't require anything special on the end of anyone else.  I host, share my screen, we all watch along and give our critique and thoughts.   Jaylan Ford is on deck tonight and we'll all be going in with a fresh template.  Or, at least, I will.  I've never really watched him before.  

Link to the discord channel. 

https://discord.gg/RKCSxEAV

[TexasAg1969]

3 hours ago, tiamat63 said:

 

As expected - trench heavy. 

Yep. Exactly what I expected now that we signed some LBs.

[Flugel]

17 hours ago, tiamat63 said:

 

I'll be on tonight, for Flugs and whomever else might want to join.  Around 8:15pm EST.  

 

Again, doesn't require anything special on the end of anyone else.  I host, share my screen, we all watch along and give our critique and thoughts.   Jaylan Ford is on deck tonight and we'll all be going in with a fresh template.  Or, at least, I will.  I've never really watched him before.  

Link to the discord channel. 

https://discord.gg/RKCSxEAV

Thanks for setting that up and watching that with me T!   I wish I could say Jaylan Ford gave us something exciting to watch. I overrated the crap out of him from things I read in 2 Draft Magazines .  Having said that, Lindy's Magazine has him as a 4th-5th round projection which seems more accurate than Athlon's 3rd round projection.  The stats looked good in the mag but we watched the matchup of their win against Alabama; and he didn't live up to what I was expecting at all.  Then we watched some of the matchup of their loss against Oklahoma and it was more of the same. I really WANTED to see guy that was good against the pass because we really need a MLB/ILB that can do that while JOK does his thing at OLB. 

Cedric Gray, Payton Wilson and Jeremiah Trotter are higher rated ILBers in Lindy's.  They also have Colson listed as an OLB but could play inside.  The concerns about Wilson are 2 ACL injuries: 1 from 2017 (high school) and tore it again in June of 2018.  He's also had both shoulders injured and surgically repaired in college.  All that being the case before the 2023 season, guess what he did in only 12 games in 2023?   He had 138 tackles, 17.5 Tackles for loss, 6 sacks, 10 QB hits, 3 INTs, 6 pass breakups, 1 forced fumble, 2 fumble recoveries.  Then he lit it up at the combines in his 6-4 238lbs frame.  It'll be interesting to see who is left when we're drafting.  Yeah, we signed 2 LBers but one is from the Philly defense had considerable trouble defending short passes in the hook zones.  The other LBer (Bush) had a major injury in Pittsburgh that he never really recovered well enough from to live up to their expectation.  LBer is still a need IMO.

I think we're looking at drafting these needs in random order: WR, OL, LB, DL, CB.   While Safety isn't a pressing need - we've seen Ed Reed, Pollyneedsahaircut and now Kyle Hamilton reminding us how that position can be a game changer if you have the right guy back there.  And we all know Denzel usually misses games to injury, which could get complicated in a hurry if we lose anyone else.  Going to an all you can eat buffet on a diet (only 5 draft picks) can be a big tease...

[tiamat63]

On 3/31/2024 at 11:40 AM, Flugel said:

Thanks for setting that up and watching that with me T!   I wish I could say Jaylan Ford gave us something exciting to watch. I overrated the crap out of him from things I read in 2 Draft Magazines . 

 

 

All good, buddy.  I like generating my own knowledge and doing those watches, learned quite a bit.  Not only about Jaylan but the Texas defense as a whole.      

 

On 3/31/2024 at 11:40 AM, Flugel said:

 

Having said that, Lindy's Magazine has him as a 4th-5th round projection which seems more accurate than Athlon's 3rd round projection. 

 

4th-5th feels right.  But it's a weak LB class, he might be bumped up just based on that alone.