🏈🏈Official Game Day Thread NE Pats vs Your Cleveland Browns🏈🏈

[FY56]

6 hours ago, Ghoolie Always Ghoolie said:

One of the sources of alienation for many on this board was EXACTLY because I promoted what you just said. To me, the Browns went to Baltimore. The new team should have been given a new name and instead of Lerner and the NFL reaping $billions from our loyalty, they should have been forced to build their own following, their own history.

With that said, there are no such things are curses. There is only stupidity, stubbornness, and in the case of the Browns, two lackadaisical owners so unaccomplished in football, so hungry to bring a SB to Cleveland that they fell victim to the very best of the NFL hucksters who garnered countless $millions by selling the owners on snake oil.

Phil Sewage, Romeo, Hue, Holmgren and now Berry/Depo have the ear of ownership. "Just be patient, we are on the right course".

Instead of hiring execs for their personal values, drive, passion and ideas, Lerner and now Haslam hired management based on their resume. The Browns need an upstart, a mercenary, a guy who bleeds football; a guy with a chip on his shoulder and hate in his belly. Bill Cowher V 2.0.

Lookie here, the name, the move, and all that bullshit means nothing. There is a cancer within the Browns organization and it isn't going to be cured by simply looking for the next impressive resume. Whatever the fuck is wrong with the Browns, it starts with Haslam. If his ear is attached to charlatans, nothing on the field or in the locker room is going to change anything.

   

Yeah it may start with Haslam, but before that it started with Randy Lerner, and before that Al Lerner, and before that... .... lo and behold! ...Art Modell !!!!   

The Browns pretty much sucked during the 90's ...and seemed to pick up where they left off when they returned in 99.

 It's gotta be a curse!!!  

....don't take me serious with this curse thing, just having some fun with it.

I am serious about this though...

Why did you have to mention Bill Cowher? You just reminded me that the steelers won today.

Can you believe that shit!?

We are tied with that trainwreck of a team.

[Korsou Dawg]

13 hours ago, hoorta said:

There were plenty more after the first one.  Not just Jacoby stunk.... That was an utter failure in all three phases.. Offense, defense, and special teams. Throw in bad coaching too...  Going for two and fail? Thanks for keeping it a two score game Kev.   

It's only the third time in attending probably 100+ Browns game I've ever walked out early. I only hope that total stink job by the Cleveland Clowns- er Browns has washed the bad karma out into the lake in time for the Guardians playoff game tonight.

Yeah, time to rack up- with a little lyric change of a Guns n Roses tune.... Welcome to the basement... 

You were there? I feel for you. I walked away from the TV early with no regrets. Worst game I remember in my fairly 'green' 10 years as a Brownie

[Korsou Dawg]

8 hours ago, jiggins7919 said:

Yeah, we definitely knew it'd be very tough when the NFL totally screwed us with the Watson extension. Just think...originally we'd be getting him back next week. Can you imagine how much fun that'd be? But no. We get to watch our team and fans turn on each other while screaming for coaches to get fired. It's obnoxious and I hate it. 

God forbid our defense win us a game against a 3rd string qb. And why can't we ever hit a big play? I don't know if he would've caught it, but Schwartz was open deep a handful of times, one would have been a TD. 

Console yourself. Even if the ball hit him in the chest, Schwartz wouldn't have caught it. That guy has no business being on a football field. XFL practice squad, maybe. 

[Dutch Oven]

5 minutes ago, Korsou Dawg said:

You were there? I feel for you. I walked away from the TV early with no regrets. Worst game I remember in my fairly 'green' 10 years as a Brownie

I know the prospect of going to the Monday NIght game vs the Bengals with all the hillbilly Bengals fans flooding our stadium makes me giddy with anticipation. ☺️

[jrb12711]

Let's face it- Billy B. completely dominates this franchise in terms of coaching decisions. IDK if he plays with a chip on his shoulder given the past, but you watched a guy playing chess while the other was playing Uno. 

JB is regressing to the mean of a backup QB. Call him Fitzpatrick, Nick Foles, etc- great option for a 3-4 game stretch but obvious backup. I'm not suggesting this was some great mystery and I really hope he wants to stay next year in that role.

Despite the failings today across the board, the defense of this team is the glaring problem. As I said previously, guys who have some good film look completely lost, disinterested, or otherwise bad. Garrett is getting doubled team at a rate egregiously higher than any other player in the NFL. I don't know the defensive staff from a hole in the wall, but it can't be worse than it is now. Kev needs to make an aggressive change-they have now allowed the most points in the NFL by 12. I'd understand if this was a plucky group of fill-ins, but we have multiple 1st and 2nd talents across the field. It's inexcusable.

1 hour ago, Korsou Dawg said:

Console yourself. Even if the ball hit him in the chest, Schwartz wouldn't have caught it. That guy has no business being on a football field. XFL practice squad, maybe. 

Me too man-stayed through the onside kick miss (which was still BS, but oh well) and switched to Dad mode. Hotel Transylvania was actually pretty good.

[Nero]

I was watching theBrowns game with no sound on my main monitor while I was alternating between writing some notes for a song and watching the Redzone in the second monitor, with the guitar on my lap. The sound? Of the redzone/music. 

I think that 1h before the game ended I had moved the redzone to the main monitor. Apathy. 

[jiggins7919]

10 hours ago, Neo said:

In his defense he was looking directly into the sun. Maybe he should have just let it go if he couldn't see it.

And it appears as if he looked to see the defender at the last second as well. Just have to let it go there... Lot catch it. Have to. 

BTW, I've never...never seen a more beautiful onsides kick and I've also never seen a player touch the ball while out of bounds when another player basically already had it. How do we do this crap? 

[SdBacker80]

Well Dobbs coming in fixes the offense and Suh on defense.  
 

 

[Neo]

14 hours ago, FY56 said:

What should have I said...the Guardians changed their name?

You're even an idiot over here.

Isn't it you and your buddies the ones always crying over something? Like a simple name change? Why don't you sink back to the poly cess pond, don't you have some more crying to do?

[tiamat63]

In case anyone felt like the Browns didn't blitz enough, or that Joe Woods is too timid in his calls to bring pressure.

 

These are ALL of the pass attempts, into the 1st drive from the Patriots of the 2nd half.  

 

Pats

100 

-     5th man, 3 deep 3 under.  *

-     5th man, 3 deep 3 under   * 

-     5th man, cover 1          * 

-     4 man,  quarters          X  (pressure by Myles)

-     4 man,  Cover 1 Rat       X

 
 5 passes, 3 pressures.  60% blitz rate

 Pretty obvious they started targeting Hunter Henry when they saw all the single coverage.

--------------------------------------------------------------------

200 

-    5th man, cover 1   *

-    4 man,   cover 6   X

-    4 man, cover 3   X   blown assignment switch by Taki and the Nickel on who was taking strong hook.   Myles, forced fumble.

3 passes, 1 pressure,  33.3333% blitz rate. 

One forced fumble by Myles without additional blitz*

---------------------------------------------------------------------

300

-   5th man, 3 deep 3 under  * 

-   5th man, cover 1         * 

-   5th man, 3 deep 3 under  *   (shouldn't count, because it was an end around, but Woods attacked expecting early down play action)

-   6th man, cover 1   * 

-   3 man, bluffed 5, backed out to cover 4  X   (Trying to get Zappe to see ghosts, actually went to his outlet receiver and overthrew an easy completion)

5 passes, 4 pressures.  80% blitz rate.    Adjustments incoming, running game taking body shots at IDL.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------

400 

-   5th man, cover 1. *  Blown assignment by Phillips and Delpit.  BAD communication between them.  Just lacking football I.Q. and Delpit surrenders easy pass.  

-   5th man, cover 1  *  Strong play action, double move on Emerson.  Bottled up the pressure.

-   4th man, cover 1  X 

-   4th man, match 3  X 

   Early adjustments from Patriots.  More early down ball action off max pro, bottling up the blitzes and mixing in the quick passing game.

-   4th man, cover 2  X   pats with a misdirection and a tunnel screen to the Z receiver.

-   5th man, cover 3 *  boundary lock.  

-   4th man, cover 1 rat X   Zappe doing a good job reading body langauge and depth trying to get a handle on who is dropping from 2 high. Getting some great coaching.

-   6th man, Cover 1  *   Alex Wright on a 'Peel' vs RB    TD pats breaking it to 2nd level.  

8 Passes, 4 pressure.  50% blitz rate.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

500  Run.  Kneel.

600 -  First drive of 2nd half.

-  6th man, green dog from Taki *   JoK fucks up his assignment against a YY look. 

    Pats inside running game starting to wear down the IDL

-  5th man, cover 1 *   Double under Y 7 to Hunter Henry.  Gameplan to attack man coverage, to attack the safeties and LB's is becoming VERY clear now.

-  5th man, cover 1 *   GREAT patience by Emerson, have to watch those hands though.

- 6th man, cover 0 *    Greedy beaten in man coverage.  TD pats.

Pats interior Oline has absolutely abused the Browns IDL on the ground and in pass pro.  There is zero interior pocket collapse.
Zappe has WAY too much room to reset and step up to find receivers.  Myles has collected several pressures, forcing Bailey to climb vertically.
Nobody is home to capitalize on the work Myles has put in.

4 passes, 4 pressures.  100% blitz rate.
 

 

 

 

That's 25 pass attempts.

Of those 25 attempts, Woods sent 5 or more on a pressure 16 times.

That's a blitz rate of 64% 

 

The NFL average blitz rate from all of 2021 was  23.7%.    Nearly 3 times last years league average.   

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[Kvoethe]

On 10/16/2022 at 8:20 PM, gumby73 said:

Agree with most on Stef.. 

Stef needs to pass his play call card to Van Pelt.. but, who puts their HC'ing job on the line with someone else doing the only thing (he) thinks he knows?

Come to think of it 🤓

I've never seen him use a blue video tablet to coach anything.. 

btw, What's former HC/DC friend of Stef, Mike Zimmer doing? A swift kick in the as$ might be what this defense deserves..   

Can Shitmypanski be on the hotseat without seeing watson play.

[gumby73]

54 minutes ago, Kvoethe said:

Can Shitmypanski be on the hotseat without seeing watson play.

WK	DATE	OPPONENT	TIME	TV	TICKETS
7	Sun, Oct 23	@Baltimore	1:00 PM	CBS	Tickets as low as $46
8	Mon, Oct 31	vsCincinnati	8:15 PM		Tickets as low as $62
9	BYE WEEK      13 days off..  Joe Woods hotseat ^^^^ both games
10	Sun, Nov 13	@Miami	1:00 PM	CBS	Tickets as low as $99
11	Sun, Nov 20	@Buffalo	1:00 PM	CBS	Tickets as low as $215
12	Sun, Nov 27	vsTampa Bay	1:00 PM	FOX	Tickets as low as $73
13	Sun, Dec 4	@Houston	1:00 PM	CBS	Tickets as low as $54

 

Watson back at Houston.. Stef gets to seasons end  

 

 

[Nero]

5 hours ago, tiamat63 said:

In case anyone felt like the Browns didn't blitz enough, or that Joe Woods is too timid in his calls to bring pressure.

 

These are ALL of the pass attempts, into the 1st drive from the Patriots of the 2nd half.  

 

Pats

100 

-     5th man, 3 deep 3 under.  *

-     5th man, 3 deep 3 under   * 

-     5th man, cover 1          * 

-     4 man,  quarters          X  (pressure by Myles)

-     4 man,  Cover 1 Rat       X

 
 5 passes, 3 pressures.  60% blitz rate

 Pretty obvious they started targeting Hunter Henry when they saw all the single coverage.

--------------------------------------------------------------------

200 

-    5th man, cover 1   *

-    4 man,   cover 6   X

-    4 man, cover 3   X   blown assignment switch by Taki and the Nickel on who was taking strong hook.   Myles, forced fumble.

3 passes, 1 pressure,  33.3333% blitz rate. 

One forced fumble by Myles without additional blitz*

---------------------------------------------------------------------

300

-   5th man, 3 deep 3 under  * 

-   5th man, cover 1         * 

-   5th man, 3 deep 3 under  *   (shouldn't count, because it was an end around, but Woods attacked expecting early down play action)

-   6th man, cover 1   * 

-   3 man, bluffed 5, backed out to cover 4  X   (Trying to get Zappe to see ghosts, actually went to his outlet receiver and overthrew an easy completion)

5 passes, 4 pressures.  80% blitz rate.    Adjustments incoming, running game taking body shots at IDL.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------

400 

-   5th man, cover 1. *  Blown assignment by Phillips and Delpit.  BAD communication between them.  Just lacking football I.Q. and Delpit surrenders easy pass.  

-   5th man, cover 1  *  Strong play action, double move on Emerson.  Bottled up the pressure.

-   4th man, cover 1  X 

-   4th man, match 3  X 

   Early adjustments from Patriots.  More early down ball action off max pro, bottling up the blitzes and mixing in the quick passing game.

-   4th man, cover 2  X   pats with a misdirection and a tunnel screen to the Z receiver.

-   5th man, cover 3 *  boundary lock.  

-   4th man, cover 1 rat X   Zappe doing a good job reading body langauge and depth trying to get a handle on who is dropping from 2 high. Getting some great coaching.

-   6th man, Cover 1  *   Alex Wright on a 'Peel' vs RB    TD pats breaking it to 2nd level.  

8 Passes, 4 pressure.  50% blitz rate.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

500  Run.  Kneel.

600 -  First drive of 2nd half.

-  6th man, green dog from Taki *   JoK fucks up his assignment against a YY look. 

    Pats inside running game starting to wear down the IDL

-  5th man, cover 1 *   Double under Y 7 to Hunter Henry.  Gameplan to attack man coverage, to attack the safeties and LB's is becoming VERY clear now.

-  5th man, cover 1 *   GREAT patience by Emerson, have to watch those hands though.

- 6th man, cover 0 *    Greedy beaten in man coverage.  TD pats.

Pats interior Oline has absolutely abused the Browns IDL on the ground and in pass pro.  There is zero interior pocket collapse.
Zappe has WAY too much room to reset and step up to find receivers.  Myles has collected several pressures, forcing Bailey to climb vertically.
Nobody is home to capitalize on the work Myles has put in.

4 passes, 4 pressures.  100% blitz rate.
 

 

 

 

That's 25 pass attempts.

Of those 25 attempts, Woods sent 5 or more on a pressure 16 times.

That's a blitz rate of 64% 

 

The NFL average blitz rate from all of 2021 was  23.7%.    Nearly 3 times last years league average.   

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Let me get this straight. 

That means we focused on improving the secondary, while our Dline has Garrett and other 3 players. We don't get pressure because if they double Garrett, no one can seize the opportunity, so we send blitzes 60% of the time. So then, our shiny secondary has to play more single coverages since they have one or two players less to cover, and they get beaten badly and make a backup QB look like Montana. 

Am I reading this correctly? 

[Flugel]

On 10/17/2022 at 1:24 AM, Ghoolie Always Ghoolie said:

Larry, this is bad. You know, even the old Ghoolie would not have used this for pissing people off.

This, at least for me is the lowest moment since we lost the team albeit temporarily.

I watched 6 minutes of highlights and I felt pity on this team. They looked like they were praying to get out of there.

Patriots players celebrating TD I. The face of end zone fans, when it eas such a bear down?

What is the answer? It can't keep being, "we have to play better". These guys should be spitting shredded glass, but instead they look like whimpering puppies.

How do they bounce back? Can they? Is this shot going to keep getting worse?

The same guy that hired Stefanski hired Hue Jackson and Freddie Kitchens.  All this stuff you're saying right now - you said with those guys too.  So, what has REALLY changed?

I'll tell you.  Nothing has changed at all.  The same guy firing the Head Coach is the guy using all the same criteria or lack thereof to knee jerk out another hire.  Do any of his last 3 choices really excite you about his next one?  The only thing that will do is give everyone the same very brief respite and false hope it always does.  

The problem is a very intelligent Head Coach candidate like Sean Payton won't walk his entire football background and the shot at writing his own ticket to a quick plank in Cleveland.  

What are we rooting for today?  I wish it was Nick Chubb, Joel Bitonio, Wyatt Teller, Kareem Hunt, Amari Cooper and others.  But it's Haslam's business and all his business decisions rendering the efforts of all those guys useless.  The collective football hearts on this team (especially the ones that matter most) are beginning the flatline.  1 by 1 we're also seeing injuries to Ward, Clowney, Teller, and possibly Conklin and Garrett again.  Just in time to give Baltimore the easiest game they've had all year.   

Welcome to another episode of the more things change in Cleveland - the more they stay the same... Get rid of the QB. Already Done this summer. Fire the Head Coach. Being said.  Fire the DC. Being said. Fire the STs Coordinator. Being said.  They can't say fire the OC because our HC would rather be an OC only worried about calling the next play instead of the 2 other phases of the game drowning his team. By now, a lot of our players are probably questioning how they got stuck here of all places.  The sad thing is none of this is new at all...

 

Edited October 18, 2022 by Flugel

[tiamat63]

9 hours ago, Nero said:

Let me get this straight. 

That means we focused on improving the secondary, while our Dline has Garrett and other 3 players. We don't get pressure because if they double Garrett, no one can seize the opportunity, so we send blitzes 60% of the time. So then, our shiny secondary has to play more single coverages since they have one or two players less to cover, and they get beaten badly and make a backup QB look like Montana. 

Am I reading this correctly? 

 You're reading it correctly, but not extrapolating the data to the extend I'm hinting at.  Let me try to clear this one up. 

 Ever see The Matrix? The part where Neo is talking to the old white guy, who I'm pretty sure is really Colonel Sanders...?    he mentions "the anomaly is systemic and not  unexpected, thus not beyond a measure of control".  

  Expectation implies predictability, and predictably is death in football. Because that means your strategy can be more readily countered in real time before you've delivered your punch. 

 

 Under Gregg Williams, this team was incredibly and predictably aggressive with this coaching and calls. The scheme seemed to mirror the man as a personality.   If you want to search function it, you'll find my lines and breakdowns from years past talking about pressure rates, actual effects being put on the passer, not rising commensurately with blitz rates.  This is a huge problem for several reasons. 

- The blitz is a gamble that sending more bodies and removing them from coverage with effect the throw either before or as it's happening. 

- Blitzing means more single coverage, meaning more chances to lose in coverage even if the assignment is played correctly.   

- Blitzing tends to help "clean up" reads, especially for young(er) QB's who might not process what they're seeing fast enough otherwise. 

At which point, beating the blitz is done one of two big ways. 

- bottling up the pressure 

- throwing out of pressure 

 The Pats employed both Sunday after it was clear in their first few drives, that the Browns coaches weren't going to be shy about sending the blitz early and often. 

 At that point NE would bottle it up on early downs with play action, max pro and quality play from their Oline.  Or they'd throw out of it with a couple well designed screens, quick hitting man beaters, rub designs and in one big case for a TD - a well executed HB draw. 

 

 You'll see in the notes above where the blitz' really failed was in an all-too-familiar place, the IDL.  If you can't collapse the pocket and get, what I refer to as "equivalent pressure" across the entire defensive front, then you're in trouble.   Zappe was allowed far too many times to step up into clean pockets, reset when coming off his primary, and fire from a clean interior.  The TD throw to Thorton against Greedy is the best example.   It was not Zappe's primary, it was his 2nd he was able to find against the blitz.  And if you allow any QB the ability to find that second man against a pressure, even average QBs will make you pay for it.

 I would do a breakdown with screenshots and everything, but that would take a few hours. And I'm on a football pursuit now that is eating up between 20-25 hours a week. Sadly I can no longer dedicate the time to share that knowledge with this board directly in that medium.  So you'll just have to trust my word at the moment. 

 We have to understand, these kids are just too good these days. The passing game is so prevalent, even at the developmental levels, that it isn't what it was even 20 years ago.  

 Bailey Zappe will likely come back down to Earth at some point. And it will be against a team that doesn't have to blitz to generate pressure.  As there were a couple reads he missed even when the Browns blitz,  that show he's still a rookie and will make mistakes. 

 

 Of the Browns defensive woes, I can tie 80% of them to the cumulative effect of how bad the IDL is playing.  It's like a shell on an egg, one crack and the whole thing is weaker for it.  10% are simple communication and coverage check errors by young players who need to work on their football I.Q. and situational awareness ( Phillip's, Delpit especially)  The final 10% is tackling and lack of ability in coverage from our LBs.  

 

 Last season, while Baker was the main antagonist to our story, there was another villain this front office let slowly emerge. Sadly, this new antagonist has supplanted our previous in the next chapter that is the 2022 football story.  Just like the previous one, it can only be fixed by replacing it (them, in this case) with someone more capable.    The problem is, unless the front office takes immediate steps in picking the bones of available free agents or trades, just like last season, there will be almost zero way to remedy what ails this team until the off-season.

 

Edit. the TL;DR version for anyone wanting a summary. 

Blitzing is a gamble. On any gamble, you want a certain return on investment - ROI.  The Browns defense has come back around to where it was under Gregg William's where we are getting a negative ROI when we send a high percentage of blitzes.   The biggest cause of that, coming full circle, is the IDL not performing as an even average NFL unit. 

[jrb12711]

2 hours ago, tiamat63 said:

Blitzing is a gamble. On any gamble, you want a certain return on investment - ROI.  The Browns defense has come back around to where it was under Gregg William's where we are getting a negative ROI when we send a high percentage of blitzes.   The biggest cause of that, coming full circle, is the IDL not performing as an even average NFL unit. 

Speaking on more broad terms, I think my concern is that guys we've seen play decent ball have seemningly regressed at an alarming rate. I get lost in the shuffle (with near 2 kids and a FT job i'm far from the days of digging into stuff) with the data of the game, that's for sure. It's very obvious your points are true-Garrett being a monster on the edge means nothing if the QB can step up into a clean pocket. That happened so much Sunday it was mind numbing.

But man, it just feels like dudes like Newsome, JOK, Delpit etc have regressed or fallen into something that's made them play bad football. Is it really that these guys are being figured out? Walker being the communicator hurting that much? Or what I tend to think that these dudes from a scheme perspective are being set up to fail. Delpit on that late end around TD wasn't even in the same hemisphere. I just have a very hard time thinking this team with a lot of the same guys just got this alarmingly worse. 

[Unsympathetic]

Direct copy-paste from ESPN's analysis:

The Browns finished the 2021 season in the top five in lowest opposing QBR (51.1), fewest net yards per passing attempt (5.97) and highest pass rush win rate (49.9%). With virtually every starter back, that was supposed to translate into an elite defensive unit this season. Instead, Cleveland's defense has fallen apart. The Browns are well outside the top 10 in all three of the aforementioned categories. But most telling, they now rank 31st in defensive efficiency. The Browns do have the talent to turn it around. Yet nothing about their performances so far suggests that they will.

 

The part ESPN doesn't say: If the Browns do have the talent [and I think we can agree they actually do] then the difference is.. Coaching.  And FO decisions to start UDFA's at DI, but I repeat everyone.

[jrb12711]

8 minutes ago, Unsympathetic said:

Direct copy-paste from ESPN's analysis:

The Browns finished the 2021 season in the top five in lowest opposing QBR (51.1), fewest net yards per passing attempt (5.97) and highest pass rush win rate (49.9%). With virtually every starter back, that was supposed to translate into an elite defensive unit this season. Instead, Cleveland's defense has fallen apart. The Browns are well outside the top 10 in all three of the aforementioned categories. But most telling, they now rank 31st in defensive efficiency. The Browns do have the talent to turn it around. Yet nothing about their performances so far suggests that they will.

 

The part ESPN doesn't say: If the Browns do have the talent [and I think we can agree they actually do] then the difference is.. Coaching.  And FO decisions to start UDFA's at DI, but I repeat everyone.

I read that a few minutes after I posted my previous comment-that sums it up perfectly. Our defensive talent overall may have regressed slightly, but the result has fallen of a cliff. How do you not point the finger at coaching?

[Unsympathetic]

And when you realize the coaching is the only problem and not the players.. This can't be unlike dealing with a headstrong teenager who won't listen --- "OK, you've now failed multiple times doing it your way, are you ready to listen to someone who knows what they're talking about?"

To be clear, it's Lerner who is the stupid immature teenager in this analogy.

And whatever you do, you just aren't allowed to consider the notion that he's far from the only million/billionaire who has exactly zero clues at anything other than the company-specific multitude of scams that got him his personal fortune...

[D Bone]

12 hours ago, Nero said:

Let me get this straight. 

That means we focused on improving the secondary, while our Dline has Garrett and other 3 players. We don't get pressure because if they double Garrett, no one can seize the opportunity, so we send blitzes 60% of the time. So then, our shiny secondary has to play more single coverages since they have one or two players less to cover, and they get beaten badly and make a backup QB look like Montana. 

Am I reading this correctly? 

Sometimes things really are this simple.... but then again, when I hear hoof steps I think horse and not Zebra. 

[Flugel]

1 hour ago, Unsympathetic said:

Direct copy-paste from ESPN's analysis:

The Browns finished the 2021 season in the top five in lowest opposing QBR (51.1), fewest net yards per passing attempt (5.97) and highest pass rush win rate (49.9%). With virtually every starter back, that was supposed to translate into an elite defensive unit this season. Instead, Cleveland's defense has fallen apart. The Browns are well outside the top 10 in all three of the aforementioned categories. But most telling, they now rank 31st in defensive efficiency. The Browns do have the talent to turn it around. Yet nothing about their performances so far suggests that they will.

 

The part ESPN doesn't say: If the Browns do have the talent [and I think we can agree they actually do] then the difference is.. Coaching.  And FO decisions to start UDFA's at DI, but I repeat everyone.

We can drive ourselves crazy with all this stuff on top of the emotional bi-polarcoaster on game days.

I do appreciate the points you bring up.  The problem is games aren't played on paper. Guys are getting worse on that defense; and some guys just aren't developing into MUST-KEEP (ie; DT Elliott who is in his 3rd year). I don't think he's awful but a time investment of 3 years had people hoping we found and developed someone in a place our FO wants to save money. This is where you want your Head Coach (w/input from Coordinators)  on the same page as your GM/Personnel decision makers IMO.

Edited October 18, 2022 by Flugel

[Unsympathetic]

There is no "tying hands" with analytics.

30 minutes ago, Ghoolie Always Ghoolie said:

instead the F.O. tying his hands with analytics

This strawman of "analytics makes calls" --- has never been the situation outside of the strawman created for the purpose of taking a position "against" that same strawman.

Exactly nothing has changed from before the word analytics was used.

Analytics is a new word for information -- that's it. The same people make the decisions.. because the same people have responsibility for the decisions.

Berry deals for players only after agreements with Woods and Stef.. and those decisions on defense especially have been terrible in multiple recent years.  Look, even if the coaches actually don't agree on a player... that happened on teams [and in companies] long before anyone bothered with data and everything was purely feelings, so once again, nothing changed with data.

Second, although it's an important corollary, haven't seen any D players really develop under Woods or assistants.  So they make bad game-day calls and make up for it by not being able to improve player skills to deal with those bad calls.  [For one shining example: Look at the progress of our wonderful rookie Alex Wright and his adventures in bull-rushing.  Or don't, it will cause you to start day-drinking.]  Great stuff!

[tiamat63]

I know there's a pretty large contingent of fans who felt the Browns didn't give Chubb enough carries.   So while I'm charting plays, I felt the need to stop in and drop this off.

- At the start of the 2nd half, the Browns came out and opened with 2 runs inside of their first 6 plays.   Combined they netted a grand total of -1 yard.   

- NE showed 8 man fronts and 9 man box counts on 1st and +1 box counts on 2nd and 3rd down (depth of the DB getting active in the run fit, playing single high)

 

 This was the Patriots coaches telling the CLE coaching staff that they understand they have a  2 score lead, and that they will absolutely not allow Chubb and Hunt to run the Browns back into making it a winnable contest.    

 I, like you, was concerned the Browns may have gone away from the run too early.   As I'm watching, I've come to the conclusion that, with the loss of Teller plus the Pats box counts, Bill Belichick would have probably cracked his first smile since his last SuperBowl had Stef obliged him by running head first into that defense.   Sadly we just do not have the QB to pass our way back into games.   Even more sad, everyone on our schedule knows it.     The Browns success hinges largely on maintaining a positive game script in 2022.

 

 

[tiamat63]

5 hours ago, jrb12711 said:

I think my concern is that guys we've seen play decent ball have seemingly regressed at an alarming rate. 

 Denzel has had a rough start to the year and one of the things I don't like that Woods' does is not getting him involved at the nickel more.  His elite lateral movement is pretty ideal to taking away, what is sometimes, an offenses best weapon - slot receiver.   Instead he's drawn some unfavorable matchups outside and especially this season, taking on some of the bigger bodies on schedule.  The coverage busts seem to have been minimized a great deal, but those are still fresh in the mind.  Otherwise I think we'd have a more favorable impression of Ward's 2022.

 Newsome is a 2nd year CB who played pretty well last season.  But the phrase 'sophomore slump' isn't a cliche'.   

 Emerson is a 3rd round rookie and has netted some nice early returns.  But he's still a rookie playing the 2nd hardest position in football.

Johnny J is Johnny J.  He's a swiss army knife and that's good, but he isn't great at anything.  I've spoken about the log jam of redundancy in terms of skill set among on safeties.  It can be both a positive and a negative.  As we don't have any real contrasting and complimentary abilities in this group.   Positive because they can all fill each others roles on any given assignment, sometimes that means you're able to disguise coverages a bit better based on where personnel is aligning.   Negative because, (best example I can give) if I'm reading single high and have concepts to really stress that middle fielder, none of my 3 safeties are particularly great at such a role.  

 

 Delpit is a 1st year starter in an expanded role.  And you're seeing some of the issues with that. First it was communication, now it's things like leverage, depth and technique.   Things he was rather unpolished with at LSU and missed a vital rookie season to get up to NFL speed.    You play golf? Ever worry so much about visualizing the shot and worrying about your swing speed that you fuck your hands up and slice the ball?  Similar type of problem there.

 Harrison is also Harrison.  He's a DB with obvious limitations on how he can be deployed, especially playing back on a hash.  

 

I can't really think of anyone else who might be labeled as 'regressing'...?    Phillips was never any good and was a late round pick.  Tommy Togiai was always a tweener that graded as a backup last season.   Jordan Elliot was much of the same, and the coaching staff having him put on weight to possibly better fill his role has only diminished his burst.   Taki has remained much the same player he was since year 2, who else is there?  Young JoK is a heat seeking missile against the run but gets lost in coverage quite a bit relying too much on his athletic ability.  There's a reason he has very few off-ball linebacker snaps on passing downs this season.  

 

 Team defense was 11th in DVOA last year.  But going back over the schedule, aside from the 1st half at the Chiefs house, only really enjoyed success against teams that were offensively limited to begin with.   KC exposed the linebackers, the Pats exposed the IDL, and the Bolts exposed our depth and talent at corner.   Only the latter of the 3 has shown some improvement since week 2, because they started clearing up the communication issues.

 

 Truth be told, this defense is a bit of a paper tiger because the glue that holds the group together (LB's) and the foundation (IDL) hasn't been good in 5-6 years.  Honestly, probably longer.   Things started falling apart with that group under Jim O'Neil.   And believe me, when a coach deserves to lose his job, I'll be the first person to say it.

 

 Hue should have never gotten to 2018.  I can never forget him calling empty with Kizer as your QB, Joe Thomas out hurt and being on your own 2 yard line against the Ravens in a 1 score game.   If I was Jimmy Haslam I would have fired you in the tunnel after the game.

 Jim O' Neil should have been fired after the 2014 season. Their base E-N-T 2 gap scheme did NOT work with our personnel and they took effective role players like Rubin, Huges and Billy Winn and ruined their ability by asking them to further bulk up and 2 gap.  

 So trust me, when coaches should go, I see it and provide good reasons before most anyone.    

Stef has no business being let go.

Woods... I'm on the fence with.  Mostly because this franchise will need a sacrificial lamb to silence the fans.  

 

  

 

5 hours ago, jrb12711 said:

But man, it just feels like dudes like Newsome, JOK, Delpit etc have regressed or fallen into something that's made them play bad football. Is it really that these guys are being figured out? Walker being the communicator hurting that much? Or what I tend to think that these dudes from a scheme perspective are being set up to fail. Delpit on that late end around TD wasn't even in the same hemisphere. I just have a very hard time thinking this team with a lot of the same guys just got this alarmingly worse. 

 

 See above about Newsome, JoK and Delpit.     Further re: Delpit. He is INCREDIBLY aggressive underneath and attacking downhill.   So much that misdirection and coverage from playing on a back hash is a liability for him.  He's not used to his first step being lateral or backwards. Instead he wants to charge in head first.  This is a large part of the reason why he looked better last year and has given this impression of "regression".  He simply isn't mentally able to fill the expanded role at a level this defense requires....  yet.  Last season he took most of his snaps as the nickel safety, WILL backer and on the edge.  This season he's being asked to do more.    Now, I say 'yet' because there have been a couple times where he has made some great plays in coverage and I go "YES, Please! More of that".   Other times? Not so much.     

 

edit:  I feel I have to REALLY drive this point home.   The ONLY reason Jacob Phillips is on the field is because of injury, and he's also the green dot.    Otherwise JoK would likely be taking his place in dime and nickel roles.   He might be one of the worst LB's in coverage and understanding coverages that I've seen.

[jrb12711]

16 hours ago, tiamat63 said:

So trust me, when coaches should go, I see it and provide good reasons before most anyone.    

Stef has no business being let go.

Woods... I'm on the fence with.  Mostly because this franchise will need a sacrificial lamb to silence the fans.  

 

 See above about Newsome, JoK and Delpit.     Further re: Delpit. He is INCREDIBLY aggressive underneath and attacking downhill.   So much that misdirection and coverage from playing on a back hash is a liability for him.  He's not used to his first step being lateral or backwards. Instead he wants to charge in head first.  This is a large part of the reason why he looked better last year and has given this impression of "regression".  He simply isn't mentally able to fill the expanded role at a level this defense requires....  yet.  Last season he took most of his snaps as the nickel safety, WILL backer and on the edge.  This season he's being asked to do more.    Now, I say 'yet' because there have been a couple times where he has made some great plays in coverage and I go "YES, Please! More of that".   Other times? Not so much.     

 

edit:  I feel I have to REALLY drive this point home.   The ONLY reason Jacob Phillips is on the field is because of injury, and he's also the green dot.    Otherwise JoK would likely be taking his place in dime and nickel roles.   He might be one of the worst LB's in coverage and understanding coverages that I've seen.

A couple of things-

If we're going to say in 2021 that the Browns had a cupcake schedule that perhaps artificially inflated the stats, the same can be said this year too. We've played two teams (Steelers and Panthers) in the bottom 4 of total offense, three teams (Jets, Falcons, Pats) smack in the middle or bottom half, and one good offense in the Chargers. And yet here we are essentially the worst defense in football.  Hence my overall vibe that this unit has regressed. As has also been noted, outside of Herbert the Browns haven't played one team with their long-term franchise guy under center (unless Zappe goes the TB12 route). That's just alarming to say the least.

I totally agree on Phillips-no business being on the field. I also agree on Stef, for sure.

Look, to say it simply these guys are just playing flat out there. It seems like there's no energy and 6 weeks into the season there's still miscommunication, role assignment confusion, and integrity issues. Those, to me, fall flat on the coach. You can't regress that badly with many of the same guys out of thin air.

[tiamat63]

29 minutes ago, jrb12711 said:

A couple of things-

If we're going to say in 2021 that the Browns had a cupcake schedule that perhaps artificially inflated the stats, the same can be said this year too. We've played two teams (Steelers and Panthers) in the bottom 4 of total offense, three teams (Jets, Falcons, Pats) smack in the middle or bottom half, and one good offense in the Chargers. And yet here we are essentially the worst defense in football.  Hence my overall vibe that this unit has regressed. As has also been noted, outside of Herbert the Browns haven't played one team with their long-term franchise guy under center (unless Zappe goes the TB12 route). That's just alarming to say the least.

I totally agree on Phillips-no business being on the field. I also agree on Stef, for sure.

Look, to say it simply these guys are just playing flat out there. It seems like there's no energy and 6 weeks into the season there's still miscommunication, role assignment confusion, and integrity issues. Those, to me, fall flat on the coach. You can't regress that badly with many of the same guys out of thin air.

 You're forgetting something, this time last year the Browns had the Malik's starting on the IDL and Walker the entire season.  That's 27% of your starting defense gone.  If you want to limit the numbers to just the front 7, that's 43% of your previous starters gone.  And while those previous starters were no means good, they weren't a complete liability against even the most bottom feeder of offenses.    The other issue is, since teams on the back half of last years schedule saw the so-so play up the middle, they've now crafted run heavy games plans against teams wanting to play more 2 high (a league wide trend) which also happens coincide with the Browns front office allowing a weakness last year to further grow into an absolute liability.  

 The communication issues at this point stem almost exclusively around Phillip's, Delpit and Emerson. I've only seen 1 bust  from Ward, JJ3 or Newsome in 3 weeks.  So that means I've got a trash LB, a young DB whose head is going a mile a minute,  but we need on the field and finally a rookie corner... That's about par the course, IMHO.

 Run fits haven't really been an issue. Players are in their gaps pre-snap. We're just straight up losing those individual battles up front 80% of the time.  Which speaks to what I've said about our talent and depth along the line. 

 And as we saw with the Pats, when we over simplify things too much on the back end,  we can be beaten in man coverage. 

 Perhaps this is the best way of phrasing it - we haven't quite regressed, but we have stretched our roster out a bit too thin. 

And roster construction lies with Depo and Berry.

[Vambo]

 

[calfoxwc]

My guess as the problem with the offense is this -

the Browns didn't have a genuine deep ball threat last year, and Baker was playing stupidly hurt with a shoulder sling job.

  Baker was very, very accurate coming out of college - so with obj - it opened up things for their offense - they went to the playoffs. beat pukesburg.

   After that, no obj, no deep threat, the offense was stifled, and Baker playing injured added serious failure on top of failure.

   This year, they added Amari Cooper - a real serious downfield threat.

Bissett - one of his biggest weaknesses is downfield accuracy.

and so it goes. The Browns are clueless as to how to put all the pieces in place.

****************************

    Having said that - there is the object of the historically stupid trade the Browns made.

Guess who these weaknesses are in their draft profile:

"

Weaknesses

• Frame is a little more slender than teams typically like
• Accuracy runs hot and cold
• Tends to over-stride on drive throws, causing release point to drop and balls to sail
• Ball placement on crossing routes and slants needs to improve
• Will leave throws behind intended targets
• Deep-ball accuracy has been scatter-shot over his last two seasons at Clemson, with throws sailing well beyond his target
• Design of offense limited his need to make full-field reads
• Has to become adept at working through progressions and playing chess against safeties
• Needs to let routes develop rather than rushing anticipatory throws
• Too many interceptions due to lack of vision, placement or decision-making
• Threw interception vs
• Troy against bracketed coverage he didn't see
• Baited into bad-decision interceptions twice by Florida State cornerbacks
• Has issues improvising away from initial, pre-snap plan even when pathway to target becomes muddy

Shotgun quarterback who, like Jared Goff, could take time getting used to huddling, pace of play-calling and drop-backs from under center"

*************************

     not Baker. or Bissett. etc etc.

Watson. Those are from watson's draft profile.

https://www.nfl.com/prospects/deshaun-watson/32005741-5433-8355-e029-e49022cf4b81

 

***************************************

     So, more failures.

 

My problem with the defense is still - if they had KEPT their damn pick, they could have added Jordan Davis to the interior of their defensive line. Just think how much that would have helped their lb's and helped stop the run.

 

Just seems hopeless.

I just don't know.

 

 

[jrb12711]

On 10/19/2022 at 9:21 AM, tiamat63 said:

 And as we saw with the Pats, when we over simplify things too much on the back end,  we can be beaten in man coverage. 

 Perhaps this is the best way of phrasing it - we haven't quite regressed, but we have stretched our roster out a bit too thin. 

And roster construction lies with Depo and Berry.

And I get all that, for sure. But it isn't just regression in talent areas. It's guys like Denzel Ward saying "ain't my fault" on Twitter, or JJ3 saying the team has  "commitment issues". It's Joel Bitonio coming out and essentially saying guys (on defense) aren't spending enough time looking at film and putting out effort: 

https://www.news5cleveland.com/sports/browns/always-more-you-can-do-browns-address-concerns-of-commitment-issues-within-team

This is why I'm saying strongly that coaching has to change at the defensive level. Woods lost this defense and it's showing on the field.

[syd]

On 10/16/2022 at 1:19 PM, TypicalBrowns50 said:

Luckily I have emotionally checked out of this year. The jets game was a sign of things to come. 
 

this is a concerning loss. So bad that you turn it off. The browns have talent. They aren’t utilizing it. If things don’t change when Watson comes back stef might get fired. Losing those valuable easy early games killed the season.

were 1 game outta first place that could change on sunday