The 2023 season film studies. Thread of questions and answers.

[gumby73]

1 hour ago, Flugel said:

I kind of like moms all of a sudden...

Some Film study's may show 😇

At our age.. Ray's mom fruit of the month box arrives, before us old fogies can get laid again 

 

 U''Studs all have a gOOd VicTory MonDaY ! 

[Flugel]

1 hour ago, gumby73 said:

Some Film study's may show 😇

At our age.. Ray's mom fruit of the month box arrives, before us old fogies can get laid again 

 

 U''Studs all have a gOOd VicTory MonDaY ! 

😆

[tiamat63]

 Earlier this week, I outlined a few things I saw from the Pittsburgh game and what the Browns needed to clean up.     I said 3 pillars had to improve this past weekend, in a sense they did.     The biggest of those was 'How was Watson seeing the field?'.    It was pretty clear, even from the incredibly limited broadcast view, that things were off between him and receivers.     A deeper look sort of reveal it had nothing to do with the eyes and decision making, for the majority of the time at least.   It was the chemistry and routes that needed to adhere to continuous improvement.    Starting my 2nd viewing of the Titans game, I wanted to play catch up on the previous one and highlight the evidence of a glimmer of hope. 

 I'll start off with the most painful, the game winning margin pick 6.

 

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 Much like most plays, it isn't JUST on one man.    Firstly, Adkins fucked this route up.  He should have carried it high, into the CB to at least back him off playing that cloud to aggressive and low.  That would have allowed for more space for Bryant to extend his route outside and shield him away from contact.        Secondly, Bryant chops his feet and squares his shoulders too much, I presume either he saw the CB, or he just flat out biffed the subtle details of this simple route.   And sometimes it is the simple stuff we tend to overlook.    Thirdly, I get DW wanting to throw with anticipation and timing, but he should have just put it on him in this case.    On the road in prime time against your oldest rival?   Need to continue to sharpen our momentary decisions.

 That said, from an X's O's, it's the correct read and throw.  You get 3 over 2 to the field, and the week hook/man defender over your #2 is a LB who is a pass rusher the majority of the time.  It's not all the dissimilar from having Zadarius or Obgo covering a TE, maybe a bit more of the former.    It's a mismatch in the passing game.   But this is still routinely easy reads per NFL standards.  Let's continue.

 

 

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 Now the timing of this throw is on DW, ball should have been out 1/2 second sooner, maybe more.  But that's all it takes at this level between a completion and not.   This is where I'll speak of timing all day.   The QB and WR's both seeing and understanding coverage, then the where, when and how they'll break the route...     If this is on time, it's a completion. If the route is a little more flat, it's a completion.

 I got back to the foundation of my passing offense though to point this out - the decision making is again, very correct.   Watson saw the MFS, the 1/3 corner and confirmed the alley defender cleared on the curl/flat.    So the eyes --> process --> understanding is not in question here.     For any QB, just ask Robert Saleh trying to drag Zach Wilson's corpse through the regular season, THAT is the most critical part for a QB.  

 Still, not all that difficult, let's graduate a couple levels.  

 

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 Pittsburgh's interior pass rush, combined with the abysmal play of Jed Willis and the obvious rookie play of Dawand, really let them get away with a lot of shit.   And make no mistake, Mike Tomlin had his guys playing VERY high emotionally - especially Larry Ogunjobi.   While he isn't playing bad for the Steelers at all, he whipped Teller's ass a few times that night.

 

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Snag/post combo to the strength

 What's great in this slide, is that you see DW checking safeties.  Safeties will try to lie to you, but if you can locate and understand them, it's incredibly difficult to cheat as a DB.      So Watson see's a 1/2 field safety to the boundary - educated guess here, that means if you want to push the ball downfield, your other side of the formation is likely either the same concept, or a flavor built off that - such a cover 4.  Pair the 2 boundary and the 4 field together you get cover 6.    Either way, when you know you have Cooper in the slot, and he's running a post, that means you're either going to find a LB having to match him down the middle, or a safety having to do the same.    Both you feel comfortable going after with trust in your #1 target.

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This is exactly where you see DW pretty much think just that.   He see's the field safety in vertical match on the #2... Cooper, in this case.    Mind you, this is moving from right to left and not locking eyes to any one side of the field.

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Watson has begun his throwing motion and see's the window open with the alley defender cleared.     Downside, pass rush is breaking through.

 

DW takes just a bit of contact on his follow through, the ball ends up a bit low and outside Coops hands.   Like before, he could have squared this route off a bit, which would have held him up before the boundary safety could recover.  

 

 

 

 

 This was that next step to the tough, intermediate level throws where I started saying "Ok, I SEE what Watson is seeing now....  and It's good math".   BUT, we just need to get the finishing details cleaned up.   I felt a strange combination between sick to my stomach about Chubb, losing, but then some grit and heart about where this team could build from.          I saved the last two for the next post...

 

 

[tiamat63]

This is where the grad level work starting coming into play, and I began to believe that 2020 Watson could still be a thing.  

 

Steelers show cover 5 (2 high man) pre snap.  

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Start to see rotation from the field safety to the hashes.

 

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Which means I have to check the boundary safety - DW does.  And he see's him driving hard as the robber looking for the over, or in this case, the shallow drag from Coop.  

 

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Takes his strike to Moore.

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Which, despite being only 5'9, was still almost complete.     

 

 

HERE is my only beef with this design, and I know that going forward it's going to be just how I'm drawing it up here.

 Moore, and at his size, is being squeezed to the boundary.  His acceleration is great, his top end can be matched.  Along with his limited size.     If the protection is there, and it this play it was, this needs to be a post-snap sight adjust off that CB.    

 Meaning Moore is doing to take his 3, stab and push vertical, but if that CB is still high and off at the chains, then you go to 4 yards and break it BACK down the route stem.      Essentially you're aiming yourself directly AT the 1st down marker and outside.   This allow allows Watson to 'drift' left and away from any potential pressure that Watt might be bringing from that side.   

 Better yet, this is where I expect Tillman to start getting these looks.  Because, from what I've shown earlier in this thread and from his pre-season, this is exactly where his skill set, physical size and tools are so desperately needed.   Because once this offense goes from having static routes to more dynamic post-snap choices, it's going to be incredibly difficult for the Steelers to leave their corners in man coverage and not pay for like the Titans did.

 The blue line is the route adjustment that needs to be built into the offense.

 

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This last one, despite not being a completion, was the most impressive IMHO.

 

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 Despite the pocket being absolutely on fire around him, and reading a double buzz rotation from an umbrella cover 4 bluff,   this was maybe a foot from being a HUGE completion and 3rd down conversion.    I've been doing this, in some form or the other, since 2012.  I haven't seen a single Browns QB since that time come anywhere near close to this type of read and throw.   Worse, it wasn't even a catch otherwise I wouldn't have even bothered with showing you the other passes.  I would have just went "yeah, THIS" and moved on.

 

 Houston Watson is still in there somewhere.  And this is my reason for believing that.  IF this was Tillman with regular seasons snaps and chemistry, it is a catch.  And one that the Pittsburgh coaches would absolutely be screaming about in the booth.   That said, and I'll circle back around to my pre-game comments on the Titans this weekend...

 

- Pass pro STILL needs work.   Jed was up and down, but neither him or Dawand faced anyone on the edge that could test them yesterday, as I expected.  The Titans just don't have 'that' guy on the edge.  They function as a collective, as a sum.  But the only standouts on their defense are Jeffe' and the LB's.    Back to our guys though, Berry can't sit still on Wills.  He is what he is at this point, it's only a matter of time before you get the wrong matchup again.  

 - Routes and the route tree vs coverage will continue to need time to grow.  We've seen some foundational work, but a lot more must be done.  Especially if you want to beat the Steelers game 2.  Because they're going to hit you with Watt, and likely more of the same they showed here.    It'll be beyond important to stay out of 3rd and long.   If Joe Thomas was still here, I wouldn't care as much.  But he isn't.   Offense has to stay on schedule because the opportunities to dig yourself out against T.J. won't be there like this past game.

 - The Ravens secondary is NOT good.  And their edge rush isn't anything great either.   Coaches and players are back in the building tomorrow morning for gameplans and meetings.  I would suspect that much of what you saw this past weekend will be used against BLT.   Specifically how can we get Coop and Moore matched up on Kyle Hamilton.  I'll be keeping an early eye on prop bets for total receptions on those two.  

 

 This was encouraging to me when I watched it.  Probably why I wasn't more present on the board during the week, and didn't partake in the usually bitchy threads from the usual morons after a loss.    Because, in the words of Marty Schottenheimer  ..."There's a gleam"     27-3, and now we've all seen what that gleam can be if the Browns organization as a whole continues to pursue it.  

 

[mjp28]

11 hours ago, Flugel said:

It was sad to hear she died earlier this year on February 15th at 82 years of age.  Raquel Welch was beautiful back in the day.  

Raquel was a beautiful person and a real babe for her entire life.  She was an amazing woman to the end.

RIP Raquel.   

Raquel Welch Obituary

Raquel Welch, the actress who became an international sex symbol for her roles in such films as 1966's "One Million Years B.C." and 1970's "Myra Breckinridge," died Wednesday at the age of 82.

Welch "passed away peacefully early this morning after a brief illness," according to her representative Stephen LaManna. No further information about her death was immediately available.

[tiamat63]

Friendly reminder, TBB discord can be used in lieu of The Tavern.   I'll be in there now, watching the Eagles - Bucs game.  For anyone who might not have it, I can share/stream the game over the app if you like/need.

 

https://discord.gg/FbMHEjch

[tiamat63]

On 9/24/2023 at 5:05 PM, tiamat63 said:

 

Looking ahead to Birds -4.5 v Bucs

🤑

[TexasAg1969]

1 hour ago, tiamat63 said:

🤑

Bastages made Baker look like full blown Baker.🦨

[tiamat63]

12 hours ago, TexasAg1969 said:

Bastages made Baker look like full blown Baker.🦨

 In Baker's defense, he was playing pretty alright... until he wasn't.  He missed two big redzone throws in terms of placement and timing. Throws that likely would have been TD's.    Then, like we've seen previously, he gets forgetful pushing the ball downfield and between the numbers; only to have a safety pick his pocket waiting on an over route he came back to off of his primary.    I question whether he even saw the safety or not.   

 

 Having Mike Evans is naturally going to make him a better downfield passer outside the numbers.  Because Mike Evans is a 6'5 ladder climber that will either come down with it, or make sure nobody else gets it.  Sort of reminds me of Brady Quinn having Jeff Samardzija.  Not only can you be off in your downfield placement and not pay for it, the ability to beat up DB's mean a wrong read or two won't kill you.   

... Unless you're having to go over the middle and it's Chris Godwin.   He won't save you.   

 

I hope and trust people followed my gambling advice the last two weeks.   Minus the Raiders, that would be 6-1 I've posted on here in that time span.  

 

[Dutch Oven]

On 9/26/2023 at 3:53 PM, tiamat63 said:

Having Mike Evans is naturally going to make him a better downfield passer outside the numbers.  Because Mike Evans is a 6'5 ladder climber that will either come down with it, or make sure nobody else gets it.  Sort of reminds me of Brady Quinn having Jeff Samardzija.  Not only can you be off in your downfield placement and not pay for it, the ability to beat up DB's mean a wrong read or two won't kill you.   

Evans is well-versed in making undersized QBs look good... 😏

[tiamat63]

 Early thoughts on reviewing the Titans game film. 

- There are coverage busts in the secondary when we face motion, and they're happening more than you know.  The thing covering up that smell is the pass rush.  At some point, it's going to have to get cleaned up because the front 4 can't always get home. 

- Middle field safety play is a vulnerability for this squad until I see otherwise.  Juan and Delpit sometimes get lost being too aggressive downhill. 

- We've been fortunate with our corners, specifically Denzel denying a TD and another home run shot, on the outside. Man coverage has been good to us.    Emerson needs to be more active with his hands at the line.  The lord done blessed you with wingspan - use it. 

- There were 5 called T-E stunts to the left side of the Oline through 3 quarters.  Took until the 5th one before it was correctly picked up and exchanged between Jed and Bito. This is more indicative of Jed's play and how defenses want to attack him. 

- Baltimore loves their fire pressures just like TEN does.  The downside being that we didn't always handle the off ball, SAM backer well when he was the 5th.   Need to scrap some of the pistol L/R until the blocking gets cleaned up. 

 - Deshaun passed up a couple higher percentage throws, two to Moore from the slot, in favor of driving the ball down field.  One was a big time completion on a slot fade to DPJ.  Can't argue with results, but at the same time I'd like to see this offense grow more comfortable and consistent with the higher percentage throws. 

 

- I like how we're identifying DWs preferred targets, but at the same time the connection with Njoku still needs to be developed. 

- The backfield work with Moore is nice, and I get you have to run that outside zone with him at least once.  You have to show other defenses that it's at least in the bag, but his lateral separation from the backfield has been a bit disappointing so far.   He's no Run CmC, that's for damn certain.   But it's not something he's done much of before, so a lot work growth is needed. 

 

- credit to the TEN coaching staff for having their defense ready to go.  The corners aren't great in man coverage and when the ball is in the air, but their I.Q. in match/MoD was pretty outstanding.   There was a play The Browns dialed up, a scissor concept against, what looks like quarters, that Byard and Bunting passed off on the cross like they had been playing together for years.  

 

I'm going to comb over the 2nd half of the INDY-BLT game, but I think I'm in on CLE -2.5 at the moment, with a longer look at props on Watsons pass completions and receptions by Moore or Cooper. 

[tiamat63]

A couple things I wanted to briefly touch this morning.  The first...

 

WTF is the NFL even doing here with this Oline alignment depth? How can that even be remotely legal? 

 

 

 

Next... my little quip on giving the Titans DBs and their coaches props.  

Scissor to the boundary with Njoku and Moore.  A good strong ball fake from Watson, something he really needs to improve on from under center, especially selling that zone stretch. 

 

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1/4 safety and CB build their integrity and bracket Coop at the bottom.   At the top you can see the route combination develop.

 

 

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 This is such a great pass off.  The boundary gives you some leeway in terms of less space to cover, but it's still the NFL and you're doing this so far down the field in terms of your vertical declaration in match coverage.   I didn't see any arms flying to point to the exchange, didn't see anybody look like they were yelling at each other.   Just two players being on the same page with their defensive I.Q.  

 

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DW was working that 2 man game at the top, obviously.     He was forced to eat the throw because Moore isn't a big enough body to try and box out Byard.  And the corners positioning means you aren't going to tempt a throw high and outside because he'll likely mug it.     This is where I'd like to see him be a bit more decisive in terms of just picking up a few yards.  Tuck, take your 3-4 and slide.  I know you run to throw, and I love my QB's to do that.  But until the offense starts humming along, take what you can.

 

 

 

 

Re: Elijah Moore. I know he has low 4.4 speed, but it's burst speed.  No long distance type shit.  I understand the coaching staff, at this moment at least, maybe hasn't quite parsed that out yet.   Because they keep trying to get him involved vertically, even in these sorts of concepts, where if it's Coop functioning as the #1 on the post, maybe DW tries to put it on him and let him be physical downfield.    That just isn't Moore's game.  Which makes this a sort of all-or-nothing type of downfield shot.      

 

There is no "the light goes on" with this offense, or really anything in football.    It's a glimmer that slowly needs to grow brighter.   This is the burden and task for not only Watson, but clearly this coaching staff as well as they try to fuse their playing styles and philosophies into one fluid and effective creation.  

[tiamat63]

 Nearly 1800 threads views, means SOMEBODY has to be watching.  This one is a bit long winded, so hold on.    Anyway, I eluded to a bit of this last week and from the PIT game.    Grant Delpit was my tip off to the cracks in the defensive fortress.     I mentioned how the secondary was still struggling with certain things and the Grant issues from last year were still VERY present.     Uno momento, let me open up Google.... 

 PFF has Grant at https://www.pff.com/nfl/players/grant-delpit/60685 ....One of the best safeties in the NFL. 

 Downside? The lack of intimacy in understanding his defensive role vs how the negative grades, or more to my point, the lack of assignment sound play in anything outside of limited calls and how that should REALLY be far more negatively impactful on said grade.    The problem is, while it's a touch of projection, it's also one of those "you can't grade what you don't know or what isn't in front of you".    Unless of course you don't always take what you see, play-by-play, in a vacuum.   It's easy to look at PFF and go "SEE, HE IS REALLY GOOD".     Again, I have no beef with grading services and their line grades are pretty solid.  I'm a simple guy,  but once you dive into the complexity, you tend to find more.   Right now, I fancy Delpit as poor mans Jamal Adams.

 Anywho, back to the team.   I mentioned if I wanted to attack the Browns defense, I was going to do so like basketball.  Pick and roll, per se', off of motion.   Nothing new for the Ravens, in all reality.   While my first thought on that was to open the passing game up, a reason I took a prop on Lamar at Over 26.5 attempts, it also opens up certain things in the running game should a defense find themselves either 1) Too aggressive or 2) out of position.     We were both at times on Sunday.  

 

 For reference, this was the post I built off of from the PIT game, when I was asked who gave up the long TD.

 

 

 

The motion game really helped to setup the QB runs that Lamar and the Ravens are famous for.   Counter power, Power read, HB lead, etc etc.   The early one, is exactly why I usually argue about coaches playing in reverse. Use your counter first (Moore on a sweep isn't a giant tell at this point?)   The Ravens staff seems to believe the same.

 

 The motion from their (I call Z) receiver does two things.  Means our run fit changes, and our coverage changes.   Delpit was over the #2 to the strength, which was also the field.   Here he's signaling his pass off to Juan on the shift.   A lot of coaches are calling this Rock and Roll between their safeties.  

 

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Even with the fake give on the Jet, you start to see how aggressive this defense LOVES being.   The biggest issues are the communication between Delpit (sound familiar?), Juan and then Taki's play.     Grant realizes late that the #2 (TE) is uncovered and has to be accounted for.  So as he's rolling to the single high, he end up flat footed on his mistake.  

Meanwhile, at the top, we have Myles doing what he's blessed to do.   He's beating the TE to the inside shoulder in the C gap and getting upfield to attack.   I mention LB's having to scrape to get back over the top, I've mentioned DB's where we play "spill and kill", that means you need edge integrity and interior gap integrity against the run.   This is essentially what all coaches LOVE, attacking the B gap, just off a different look. 

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You'll have to forgive the complexity here, I'll try to simplify the picture.   

- The Jet is the cheese, this isn't a read it's a designed call as a QB wrap.  There are many ways to run it, but it generally involves the misdirection and then a pull.  Those are the two core staples.  

- the aggression from the LB's and DB's means they've flowed too far laterally with the ghost jet.  So now, I guess we can make it more simple...  We unblock/soft block Myles and let him get up-field while the Ravens Pull the center to kick him out should he plant in the Gap, and the backside tackle, along with Mark Andrews as the TE, now function as your double leads.   This is where it gets easier....

 

 

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Lamar has to do two big things here. 

- Can't get caught being too slow paced as this develops.  Because Myles IS gifted and can still track this down.  So you'll see Lamar playing really tight to his RT pulling.

-  He can't over-run his blocks, get ahead of them and fuck the setup entirely. 

This is what happens when you have an offense doing something, and doing it VERY well, for a number of years.  The design, the timing, the blocks and reads feel 2nd nature.

- At this point, you see Delpit struggling to recover.  He knows outsider integrity has to be maintained, so he attack the outside shoulder of Mark Andrews.  Doesn't matter, because the LB's have been walled off from recovering backside.

- At the bottom, you see the further result of the miscommunication between Delpit and Juan.  They're literally chasing a ghost with a plus defender that you needed in order to limit this play correctly.

 

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 As a football fan, you have to appreciate this. If you love the game, sometimes you just tip your cap.   It was wonderfully setup, called and then executed.  Lamar did what he is blessed to do when he pulls the ball down and uses his legs.   

 

 

 

 

 

 

 This is the antithesis to Joe Woods.  At least, in terms of how we trigger to the run.  The shades of being too much in the linear and opposite direction.  In other words, too aggressive and too tunnel visioned.    While I'm also joking about Joe Woods, you'll also notice that broken coverage on bad assignment pass-offs or a lack of understanding the call and checks vs motion isn't exclusive to our departed D.C.    

  I still love me some Coach Schwartz BUT.... I'm using this play to highlight a few things.

- We still struggle in the backend for very similar reasons, and very similar players, as last season. Until it's fixed, it will be a vulnerability our opponents (Young Shanny) will absolutely hammer.

- The downhill pursuit is great, until it's used against you.  

- Nobody understands your tendencies like your divisional opponents.   Familiarity breeds contempt, as they say.

- Had the Browns offense been functional, I would have gone 3/3 in my prop bets for this game.     So, future gambling advice; if the Browns offense looks solid under Watson when we play the Ravens next time, take a passing prop on Lamar OVER 24.5 attempts.  It's clear they want him to throw more, but the Ravens want to dictate the terms on how and when.  

edit: And keep an eye on whoever functions as the #2 TE in the Ravens offense - Isiah Likely. A TD prop bet might be in play next time.  Because, as sad as this is to admit, because of the shitty DEF communication in this play, BLT can build a little Y glance next time into this and try to get a cheap TD off a play that tracks exactly similar to this look.  I know their coaches are going to tuck that away for later use.

 

[tiamat63]

 This is the prequel, to the sequel above.      I mentioned that a lot of what the Ravens did early was because of Grants miscommunications.   This play was that initial tip to the Ravens offensive coaches and came before the QB Wrap TD by Lamar the following drive after the DTR INT.

 

The two high shell start.

 

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We get the Z on the jet Mo coming across the line.   AT this point, Grant is now functioning as a glorified WLB.    So he has to cover and protect his '7' in a cover 3, while carrying the #2 seam if necessary.   Newsome calls the rotation and roll to Thornhill, but Grant isn't understanding of his assignment off this motion.

 

 

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So what we end up with is a loss of B gap integrity and not a curl/flat defender in sight at the top.   Grant looks back to see the screw up.   

 

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At this point, Grant see's he has fucked up, now he's just turning his eyes back inward and looking for work while eyeing Lamar for tips.  Trying to be an athlete to make up for the fact he's off his landmark.

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 The defense is fortunate there was no TE leak or any route developing to that side, otherwise it would have been cheap and easy yardage for the Ravens.  Plus the pressure from the line helped to erase this smell.  It's a trend we had weeks 1-3, in week 4, it finally bit us in the ass.  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 Motions change run fits and force coverage rotations.  I said it in this thread on the previous page, Delpit needs to learn to play intelligently along with playing aggressively.   Right now he's losing his head at times when he needs to be thinking the most.   What's concerning is that these aren't overly complex motion adjustments he's facing.   So these are the demons of season past that are coming back to plague his game, when he has to be a complete safety.    We lost B gap integrity on this play and allowed far too much open space off this easy move, and the Ravens made the Browns DEF pay for it on a short field and one play just the next drive off a similar look.     

 Again, this is where I caution people against using a PFF grade for DB's.  It's a first layer metric, much like BMI is to health.  But once the details behind the applied metric can be understood, we realize that the number applied can have a great margin for error.  

 

      Ghost Hunters was a show on A&E, I do believe? Right now, Delpit is earning a guest spot on that program.   He's been chasing nothing at times. 

[mjp28]

4 hours ago, tiamat63 said:

 This is the prequel, to the sequel above.      I mentioned that a lot of what the Ravens did early was because of Grants miscommunications.   This play was that initial tip to the Ravens offensive coaches and came before the QB Wrap TD by Lamar the following drive after the DTR INT.

 

The two high shell start.

 

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We get the Z on the jet Mo coming across the line.   AT this point, Grant is now functioning as a glorified WLB.    So he has to cover and protect his '7' in a cover 3, while carrying the #2 seam if necessary.   Newsome calls the rotation and roll to Thornhill, but Grant isn't understanding of his assignment off this motion.

 

 

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So what we end up with is a loss of B gap integrity and not a curl/flat defender in sight at the top.   Grant looks back to see the screw up.   

 

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At this point, Grant see's he has fucked up, now he's just turning his eyes back inward and looking for work while eyeing Lamar for tips.  Trying to be an athlete to make up for the fact he's off his landmark.

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 The defense is fortunate there was no TE leak or any route developing to that side, otherwise it would have been cheap and easy yardage for the Ravens.  Plus the pressure from the line helped to erase this smell.  It's a trend we had weeks 1-3, in week 4, it finally bit us in the ass.  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 Motions change run fits and force coverage rotations.  I said it in this thread on the previous page, Delpit needs to learn to play intelligently along with playing aggressively.   Right now he's losing his head at times when he needs to be thinking the most.   What's concerning is that these aren't overly complex motion adjustments he's facing.   So these are the demons of season past that are coming back to plague his game, when he has to be a complete safety.    We lost B gap integrity on this play and allowed far too much open space off this easy move, and the Ravens made the Browns DEF pay for it on a short field and one play just the next drive off a similar look.     

 Again, this is where I caution people against using a PFF grade for DB's.  It's a first layer metric, much like BMI is to health.  But once the details behind the applied metric can be understood, we realize that the number applied can have a great margin for error.  

 

      Ghost Hunters was a show on A&E, I do believe? Right now, Delpit is earning a guest spot on that program.   He's been chasing nothing at times. 

Hey Tia,  I do enjoy your write up on the games and the analysis on plays and more.  Well done. 

You do a really good job keep it up.   mjp.

[tiamat63]

11 hours ago, mjp28 said:

Hey Tia,  I do enjoy your write up on the games and the analysis on plays and more.  Well done. 

You do a really good job keep it up.   mjp.

Thanks buddy, I sincerely appreciate that. 

[ballpeen]

On 10/1/2023 at 8:26 AM, tiamat63 said:

A couple things I wanted to briefly touch this morning.  The first...

 

WTF is the NFL even doing here with this Oline alignment depth? How can that even be remotely legal? 

 

 

We have talked about this before, and I agree.  Everything has been about protecting QB.s.  They let it slide because of that.

At least that is all I can figure since it is pretty common with all teams and all officiating crews.

On 10/1/2023 at 8:26 AM, tiamat63 said:

 

 

[Unsympathetic]

Some PFF gems.. posting here to see if any replies/thoughts to the individual performances:

Alex Wright actually played well for a change, getting the highest DL grade of 73.4 on 15 snaps.
Fields only saw one snap at LB (59.9) but graded better than either Walker or Taki who were in the mid-40's.
Mo Hurst was the second-best IDL by a pretty wide margin.
Mike Ford and Cameron Mitchell were both above a 60 when they had to step in.. Obviously you'd hate to see it but we can be confident with the CB injury standins in some game down the road. Money Mitch: the return?

[TexasAg1969]

All that can be said about the Browns' #1 defense is that this young man captures what it's all about. They are out there having a lot of fun playing like one supertogether unit.👍🤩

 

[tiamat63]

7 hours ago, Unsympathetic said:

Some PFF gems.. posting here to see if any replies/thoughts to the individual performances:

Alex Wright actually played well for a change, getting the highest DL grade of 73.4 on 15 snaps.
Fields only saw one snap at LB (59.9) but graded better than either Walker or Taki who were in the mid-40's.
Mo Hurst was the second-best IDL by a pretty wide margin.
Mike Ford and Cameron Mitchell were both above a 60 when they had to step in.. Obviously you'd hate to see it but we can be confident with the CB injury standins in some game down the road. Money Mitch: the return?

Looks about right.

- Wright was in a rain soaked game that best helps what he's (limitedly) good at - using his wingspan to set an edge and kick inside to 4tech on occasion.   Whatever pass rush we might get out of him is cherry on the top.  I don't expect him to take the edge on anyone consistently.

- Awalk got smoked on a couple occasions including a well designed wheel to CmC that Purdy couldn't connect on.  VERY fortunate for that, because it was 6 points.

- Taki was late a few times but played serviceably.  Thornhill saved his ass on that HB choice otherwise that would also have likely been a TD, if not a 1st down conversion at minimum.

- Mo has been playing really well.  Not only that, but showing some positional versatility along the interior.   Glad he has been keeping healthy and contributing.  

- Jordan Elliot is who he is.  His play reflects that - still a below average IDL at best.

- Both Ogbo and D.T. had a nice day, them and JoK were the big difference makers at times.

- C.Mitch has been a nice addition.  Good strength at the line going hands on with receivers despite not having the best wingspan.  

 

 

Working on my grades for Jed & Dawand after I go through a watch of how the defense did after the Run CmC shell shock early.   I'll check back then.  

[Orion]

9 hours ago, TexasAg1969 said:

All that can be said about the Browns' #1 defense is that this young man captures what it's all about. They are out there having a lot of fun playing like one supertogether unit.👍🤩

 

Impossible to watch that and not love that guy!

[Neo]

33 minutes ago, Orion said:

Impossible to watch that and not love that guy!

ZaDarius Smith to Okoronkwo - "I bet it took you a long time to spell your name right" 💀

[Unsympathetic]

The game plan Sunday was the same that Schwartz has used to shut down Shanahan before.

Cover 1 lurk on 3rd down -- Man outside, one safety coming downhill to the intermediate middle, outside leverage to drive on an underneath route because no fear of the deep ball.

Fun fact: Browns D is on pace to be the 3rd team ever to allow 200 YPG or less. The last was 1970 Minnesota.

And to anyone who says SF should have still won at the end with the FG..... using that logic, OSU should have beat Georgia last year.

[tiamat63]

Just in case anyone was still asking themselves if that toss was the right call on 4th down. 

 Ford just muffed a play he's run hundreds of times since youth league. 

 

 

 

[tiamat63]

 Credit has to be given when due - Stef called a solid game yesterday for what he was working with.   On the flip side, so did the Colts coaching staff. 

I mentioned this in the game thread, but I remembered that power toss the Pats hit us with when they saw how desperate we were to limit the interior runs. 

 

 

[Orion]

8 hours ago, tiamat63 said:

Just in case anyone was still asking themselves if that toss was the right call on 4th down. 

 Ford just muffed a play he's run hundreds of times since youth league. 

 

 

 

It was gonna be a 1st down...but it wasn't all Ford's fault.  I think PJ tossed it too hard and at his head.

[tiamat63]

I'm already charting plays, I'll be back on tomorrow to reply to quotes and notifications.  

 

Wanted to hit you guys with something while I'm working.  Just in case you like having conversations and you're willing to  opened to changing your minds about things when new information comes to light. First off, Browns punting average is 45.4 yards. Given field position, that means the ball would have been around the SEA 26, instead of their own 43. A net difference of 17 yards. Now, this is where it gets fun. Seattle had 2 time-outs, but had 6 plays, 5 offensively ran, the 6th being an accepted penalty on the Browns, that covered those 57 yards for a touchdown.  Took a grand total of 72 seconds, just under 1.3 yards per second.  Meaning, had the Browns punted and gave Seattle the additional ground to cover, at that pace, Seattle scores with 25 seconds remaining and still keeps their 2 time outs.   

 

 Of the Browns 3 games, where the defense was in a place to prevent a tie or a loss score on given field position, including field goals,  they currently sit at 1-2 mark.    The defense gave up a game winning drive to the Niners.  Where San Fran had an 85.21% chance of hitting a 39 yard field goal. I don't know about you guys, but if I was given an 85% success rate at anything, I'd likely be a multi-millionaire.       Mother Nature was on our side that day, and dealing with the elements is something both teams had to do.     But point being, the Browns defense surrendered those yards when it mattered most.     Obviously today counts, as the Browns gave up 7 points in just over a buck 10 in seconds, plus the penalty.    Seattle has zero blocked punts last season and this season (so far) so that's likely not an issue here.  I don't like working on hypotheticals to that exact, only stuff that's a bit easier to keep track of with some realistic trends to it.       Only against the Colts have they secured a game winning defensive stop when the opportunity presented itself.

  Granted, my rant is a vacuum situation and I don't really like giving analysis as such.   The defense could have given up a game losing FG to the Colts, but that same defense produced some turnovers and a defensive score that helped to win that game as well.  Likewise for the San Fran game, where they got stops and produced negative plays to help our offense put some points on the board.       It's an ecosystem and there has to be some give and take.   My post here is to highlight the silliness of the absolute which is the "punt and play defense" being the right and definitive call.  That "mythical" call which wins the game every time.     Right now, under that scenario, the Browns have a losing record of yardage surrendered.  Point blank.    The defense gave up 3 scores in the 1st quarter today while dropping a sure-fire defensive score.  In a game where the offense had to dig deep on the road early to keep us in it, to the point they ended up getting a lead.   That same offense sputtered at points in the 2nd half when the Hawks made their adjustments.   Are those all presumably the head coaches fault?   We've been effusive in our praise of Schwartz, but we've missed out on including some of his good fortune while it's a 'what have you done lately for me?' world.  If we punted and gave up said score, would the venom turn to the defense as it has Stef?          Again - give with some take.  

 

 Put things in proper perspective, Browns fans.    This is an injury riddled team that took a chance on the road to ice a game against a defensive look they enjoyed some success against on previous drives.    

 

 

  Apologies to all for not being able to get back to conversation tonight... but I've got grades to do.   I'll pay that respect tomorrow with appropriate responses.     

[Orion]

Seahawks game...the long pass to Cooper who got to the 2 yard line...and then the 1 yard line with the roughing the passer call.  Nothing was open initially, but the OL gave PJ time.  When they showed the replay from the Behind the QB angle I could see that the receivers reached the end of their route.  The receiver who ran the underneath route below Cooper was standing there like a statue whereas Cooper realized the situation immediately upon reaching the end of his route (which of course, was a little after the shorter route concluded) and turned and moved to an open area giving PJ some place to throw it.  I don't know who the underneath receiver was, but he makes a nice statue...although that's not really helpful.

[Korsou Dawg]

On 10/29/2023 at 9:47 PM, tiamat63 said:

"punt and play defense"

This should not be in quotation marks. The disputed play that resulted in the turnover was on a 3rd and 3. The dispute: some including myself are still sick to our stomach we didn't run in that situation, while you argued the merits of passing.

Some numbers of my own: Like I said, we were 3rd and 3. Over the game, we were averaging 3,9 YPC. So by those numbers alone, we get the 1st and the game is as good as over. I cannot find a site that allows me to drill down to 2nd half stats, but from memory the running game was improving. Even against the occasional stacked box, which I called out earlier in the game thread, so the counter that the opposing coaches and defense were expecting the run doesn't fly IMO.

 

Hunt also doesn't have a turnover this year, and only one all of last season. The likelihood of a turnover if we had let him run the ball is very slim indeed. 

Compare that to Walker: 3 interceptions over the first 2 games; got sacked 4 times, and produced a completion rate of less than 50%. At this point in the game, he only had one Int, so another one was increasingly likely every time he threw. The chance of a successful outcome with him throwing is much lower than desired, than acceptable even. To be clear: I have nothing against the guy. Comes across respectful and humble. Just not an NFL caliber player, even as a back-up. Putting him in that situation is on Andrew Berry, who on the whole has done remarkably well the past off season, I think.

IMO, arguing in favor of the pass in that situation can only be done in a completely theoretic vacuum. 

• With an in-from NFL caliber starter such as Watson against the Titans, passing probably is your best bet.
• With a serviceable back-up like Jacoby Brisett, while probably not being our best bet, passing would still be acceptable. 

Neither of those apply. By the numbers I have presented, the choice with the best 'expected value' for the Browns in that situation was clearly letting Hunt run the ball. 

All that stuff about punting only comes into play after the running play with a good chance of success. Furthermore, the run also takes time off the clock, or forces Sea to take one of their time-outs. Instead of stopping the clock and just F@%#!#G giving them the ball in great field position like we did.

I am still fuming about that choice, but happy to agree to disagree. 

EDIT: forgot about the two-minute warning, but the remainder of my argument still stands.

[jrb12711]

On 10/29/2023 at 9:47 PM, tiamat63 said:

I'm already charting plays, I'll be back on tomorrow to reply to quotes and notifications.  

 

Wanted to hit you guys with something while I'm working.  Just in case you like having conversations and you're willing to  opened to changing your minds about things when new information comes to light. First off, Browns punting average is 45.4 yards. Given field position, that means the ball would have been around the SEA 26, instead of their own 43. A net difference of 17 yards. Now, this is where it gets fun. Seattle had 2 time-outs, but had 6 plays, 5 offensively ran, the 6th being an accepted penalty on the Browns, that covered those 57 yards for a touchdown.  Took a grand total of 72 seconds, just under 1.3 yards per second.  Meaning, had the Browns punted and gave Seattle the additional ground to cover, at that pace, Seattle scores with 25 seconds remaining and still keeps their 2 time outs.   

In addition to what was said, this math ain't mathin.

Cleveland was on their own 41 on the 3rd and 3 play. Assuming they don't gain a yard, a 45 yard punt (Cody was averaging 47 in the game, but I'll give you 45), put the ball on the 14 yard line, not the 26. Even using the very flawed methodology of yards per second (which I can truly say I've never seen in my life), you also didn't consider the 10+ seconds a punt takes off the clock as opposed to the time saved from the turnover. 

Lastly, I won't add much to what Korsou said. Football can be a simple game sometimes, and Stefanski despite being a very solid coach has a marked problem of overthinking it. The Browns were moving the ball on the ground well, and the QB was a third string guy who missed two wide open people on previous plays. I can't find the statistic, but I recall watching the game that the Browns held the Seahawks to that point to 44 total yards in the 2nd half. Running the ball was the prudent decision, and not choosing it cost the team dearly.

EDIT: I'm taking an educated guess you're presuming the Seahawks get 12 yards return (their average) but in that situation it's very unlikely.